Aside from the road history, and perceived big game issues, is there any reason to think Michigan won't win at Wisconsin?
Michigan hasn't won at Wisconsin in 20 years. Harbaugh's Michigan teams haven't won as an underdog. Harbaugh's Michigan teams have been stellar against good teams on the road. We all know these narratives. But, every season, every game, is its own separate entity.
Wisconsin has not been a very good football team this year. Their defense has been good, but their offense has been inconsistent and turnover prone. We've seen this movie before. Remember the 2019 Michigan Wolverines? That team went into Camp Randall off of two unimpressive wins against Middle Tennessee and Army. Michigan's offense had a total of 8 fumbles (5 lost) in those two games. Then, they had 4 turnovers against Wisconsin. That's 9 turnovers in 3 games.
This 2021 Wisconsin team, with a 1-2 record, has 9 turnovers in 3 games! Is there any logical reason to think Michigan won't win this game? History has no bearing this game. Last year, definitely, has no bearing on this game. Wisconsin has not played well this year, and aside from one half, Michigan has been superb. This game will be no contest!
Michigan 34 Wisconsin 10
October 1st, 2021 at 7:21 PM ^
Maybe obvious - but I think for Michigan to win, the big dogs - Hutchinson, Ross, Hill, Corum, Haskins - need to really stand out and do so early to quiet the crowd. Also at least one Henning run over 25 yards.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
I think they are the better team but going to have to execute plays that they haven’t done or tried so far. Winning in Madison will be tough but they can certainly do it.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Is it just me or is this new “never won as an underdog meme” just another way to move the goal posts. I feel like some Michigan hater digs up some obscure fact that shits on harbaugh and our fan base eats it up.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
Can you please provide the list of games Harbaugh has won as an underdog? I’m willing to look at the evidence and change my mind.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
Let’s say I’m willing to comb through stats in order to change your mind about harbaughs winless record as an underdog, what metric do you want me to use? Rankings at the time the game is played? End of the year rankings?
Oh wait we’re doing betting lines now. What service is the one to use? Do you want me to check initial lines or final lines? or whichever one looks worse?
It very well may be time to move on from Jim. The only stat you need for that is the record against OSU and MSU. We don’t need to repeat some cherry picked stat perpetuated by people who hate Michigan football.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
Let’s keep it super simple. Name a time Harbaugh has gone on the road as an underdog and won. A single instance would be fine.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
Michigan really isn’t an underdog. If they win, the narrative will be that Wisconsin isn’t a good team this year and Michigan should have won the game anyway. Same old shit.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:58 PM ^
Except they are underdogs against Wisconsin. That game is played tomorrow at noon.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:32 PM ^
Except if Michigan wins then it was a ranked, undefeated Michigan beating a 2 loss unranked Wisconsin.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:29 PM ^
No, it'll be Michigan and Jim Harbaugh beating the team that has embarrased them two years in a row, getting a solid win over a solid program on the road for once since he got here, and getting a win in Madison for the first time since 2001.
Plus, considering Wisconsin has just about (if not the) the best run defense in the country, and we can't pass the ball for shit, if we actually pull off a win tomorrow that would actually bode well for the rest of our schedule, sans Ohio State.
There would be PLEANTY of positives coming out of a win tomorrow.
October 2nd, 2021 at 7:18 AM ^
How would we know that would be the narrative? It’s never happened under Harbaugh because he’s not won as an underdog at Michigan.
To me if they win it’s amazing even if it’s ugly. Wisconsin hasn’t even allowed 100 yards total in rushing this year, we haven’t won in Madison since 2001, Wisconsin has dominated us the last 2 years and of course Harbaugh’s record on the road and as an underdog are all reasons to be joyous if they win.
October 2nd, 2021 at 7:13 AM ^
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_dog&range=yearly_since_2015
Scroll to the bottom, Michigan is 0-12 under Harbaugh since 2015. Even Alabama has won their only underdog game in that time span. Michigan is the only winless FBS team as an underdog.
Granted I’d rather be 0-12 than 5-57 like Kansas but still a stat is a stat. Can Jim change this? Hopefully he does today.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Turnovers and poor execution would be killers. Wisconsin's defense is another big obstacle.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^
I thought about this…I hope they are secure enough not to get outside of themselves…Cade pressing and tossing INts because people are talking about the lack of passing would be a death low for sure.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:06 PM ^
If Michigan wins tomorrow it will be a huge accomplishment. Wisconsin has embarrassed them two years in a row. Camp Randall is a difficult place to play.
Harbaugh doesn’t win these games. If he does tomorrow that’s a huge improvement and something worth celebrating.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Is there any logical reason to think Michigan won't win this game?
Seriously? You cannot swing a dead cat without hitting a red flag here.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
Harbaugh is 0-12 as an underdog at Michigan so we better hope the lines changes by kickoff tomorrow otherwise we lose again.
October 2nd, 2021 at 1:16 AM ^
1 - 12 after tomorrow!
October 1st, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
If history, past events, don’t matter, what are your basing your prediction on? Direct non-inferential knowledge of the future? Do you not believe in inductive reasoning? I have so many questions.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Does the weather favor us?
October 1st, 2021 at 7:44 PM ^
I’m usually an optimist. But our only offensive strength- running between tackles - is Wisconsin’s defensive strength. Wisconsin’s defensive weakness is long ball - where we are terrible. And, as awful as Metz has been, he’ll toss the ball up and our corners will either grab or not turn their heads.
I think this is the worst matchup for us this year.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
Very good point. M’s corners haven’t really stopped anyone much in 2 years.
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:00 PM ^
This year, we are actually damn good at deep balls. We just don't use them enough. The hallmark of the Harbaugh era offense is making things more difficult than they need to be.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
I’m in a small minority but I don’t think it will be all that close.
I think Wisconsin’s Oline moves M’s front 7 mostly at will. I think M turtles on offense and doesn’t move two feet. Wisconsin 28-10 or worse and it’s all but over at half-time. Only the most maize colored glasses will believe M can comeback in the 2nd half.
October 2nd, 2021 at 8:18 AM ^
I see it going exactly this way, unfortunately.
October 2nd, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
I’m with you, unfortunately.
I don’t think we’re going to be able to stop the run, and then we’re going to fall behind. At some point it will get ugly.
Man I hate feeling this way about Michigan football.
I’ve honestly believed the Harbaugh era is a dead man walking for a couple of years. Coaches tend to turn programs around in years 2, 3, 4. They don’t get worse (recruiting and record-wise) year over year and then breakout in year 8. At least not typically.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Based on the past 7 years, Murphy’s law, and just everything that goes against Michigan, Wisconsin will not have a turnover. Furthermore, they will hold Michigan to under 100 yards on the ground and force them to pass (I’ll withhold judgement on the passing game). Wisconsin will run for over 250 yards (mostly between the tackles) and own time of possession by more than 15 minutes. Michigan finds a way to return a punt or kickoff return for a TD, they have 1 TD drive and 3 FGs. Michigan wins 23-13. Hail!
October 1st, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Harbaugh is very easy to outcoach.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
Aside from Jim Leonhard being > Josh Gattis + Jim Harbaugh?
Wisconsin at home trying to avoid a 1-3 start
Michigan will stubbornly try to establish the run the entire first half. Mertz will hit one big pass.
UW 10 UM 3 at the half
Boring, ugly game of field goals ensues. Passing in desperation, McNamara sacked 3 times.
UW 16 UM 6 Final
October 1st, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
“Harbaugh's Michigan teams have been stellar against good teams on the road.”
haha nice try
October 1st, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Aside from the fact that I’m short, poor, about as exciting as a cold bowl of oatmeal, and look like Gollum’s slightly better-looking brother, is there any reason to think Salma Hayek won’t run away with me?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
I am just tired. I am tired of the losing and I am tired of the failure. It is year 7 of Harbaugh and the only thing we can count on is that the QBs will actually get worse as the season goes along. Meanwhile, Mel Tucker turned things around at MSU in one season. One fucking season!! I don’t think there is a coach anywhere in the country who could turn Michigan around. However, I think it will be a tough sell to bring Harbaugh back next season when he is sitting at 3-4 against MSU and 0-6 against OSU.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:36 PM ^
I’ve been saying this since last season.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:01 PM ^
Give Sparty credit for beating the teams on their schedule, but their toughest opponent is a FG away from being 1-4 (0-4 against FBS teams).
If Nebraska's punter would've done his job, Sparty is probably 3-1 and we're giggling that they helped Frost keep his job.
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:54 AM ^
I’m more tired of the never ending excuses that seem prefabricated when we underperform. It is as if we have a “Break in Case of Emergency” ready-made list to rationalize away all of our underperformance. This is not acceptable given our enormous advantages in virtually every category relative to our opponents. There should be no more excuses about why we flounder while other programs succeed in spite of resource constraints and disadvantages that we are unburdened with. We have a severe case of affluenza and entitlement that needs to change if we hope to be competitive as a program. The current AD administration acts as an enabler rather than a constructive presence.
October 2nd, 2021 at 1:13 AM ^
Meanwhile, Mel Tucker turned things around at MSU in one season. One fucking season!!
Uh, Harbaugh took Michigan from 5 wins in 2014 under Hoke to 10 wins in 2015 under him. And that was literally his first season, whereas Mel did have a mediocre first full year last year
I agree on the Michigan end that it's more likely than not that Harbaugh isn't the answer. But don't be so quick to judge that things are rosy on the other side, nor would I be so quick to pencil in a loss to MSU
I don’t think there is a coach anywhere in the country who could turn Michigan around
Why? is it that the standard for turning us around is too high? I feel like there isn't anything inherently off about Michigan as opposed to, say, an MSU, whom you point out as "turned around"
October 2nd, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
Harbaugh doubled Hoke's win total in his first season (from 5 to 10) and beat Florida convincingly in the bowl game in the process. Mel still hasn't beaten a good team, and should have lost at home to Nebraska. They have another easy opponent next on their schedule, so they'll be crowing quite loudly after another win, but the season is not over.
October 1st, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
You needed more than history?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
Hope you’re right
October 1st, 2021 at 9:10 PM ^
They only lose if they decide to play like they did diring the 2nd half of last week.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:14 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh and Josh Gattis
October 1st, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
You make a compelling argument
October 1st, 2021 at 9:15 PM ^
They have the #1 rush defense in the nation. That good enough?
October 1st, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
Because we had like 1 first down in the 2nd half against Rutgers?
October 1st, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^
You need additional reasons???
October 1st, 2021 at 9:42 PM ^
"This 2021 Wisconsin team, with a 1-2 record, has 9 turnovers in 3 games! Is there any logical reason to think Michigan won't win this game?"
Yes, a few, and by stating them, no one is necessarily preaching doom, but there are numerous reasons to be concerned. Perhaps chief amongst those reasons is our love of the inside running game when we are about to face an opponent whose entire raison d'etre on defense - for ages - has been to take away this very thing. Am I suspicious of our ability to make the appropriate adjustments if that staple isn't working? Yeah, a bit, because we didn't test the edge but once when Rutgers took away the inside.
Long story short, I have concerns.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:09 PM ^
Play the game, win the game, let them come up with a reason why it isn’t good enough. No running game, too much running. Too much passing, not enough passing. Whatever. As long as we aren’t running Ben mason on a dive play in the first quarter, I’m good. Go Blue.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
From reading the game columns and the UFR it seems like Cade can rely on his pre-snap read, which he is good at.
But from the preview reading about wisc’s linebackers makes me concerned that they have the personnel to play differently from their pre-snap alignment. Is that enough to throw off Cade’s reads and stymie the offense if they are only being just ok in the run game.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^
The two reasons you stated in the title is enough to cause me to be certain that we will lose.
For some weird reason or another, we tend to bring the best games out of our opponents. Wisconsin will commit 0 turnovers while Cade will throw 2 interceptions and lose a fumble. We will get hammered.
Wisconsin 34 Michigan 10
October 1st, 2021 at 11:25 PM ^
I predict: M00W or W00M type of game