Aside from the road history, and perceived big game issues, is there any reason to think Michigan won't win at Wisconsin?

What makes you think we can put up 34 on Wisconsin when we put up 20 on a much worse Rutgers defense? Wisconsin has the #1 run defense in the country and our passing game is a giant question mark. Not saying it couldn't happen but it's definitely not my expectation. Wisconsin very well might just be the better team.

I’m not necessarily pessimistic (Wisconsin usually gives them problems with a lot contributions from a dominant RB which they don’t have this year) but one thing to consider: this will be Cade’s first game on the road in front of a crowd. He looked a lil thrown off by the HOME crowd against Washington. How he handles the road environment will be key. 

I mean they might be the best run d in the country and our entire offense is predicated around a run game Rutgers successfully shut down for a half. On a per play basis Wisconsin was better than both psu and nd and is probably 3-4 plays alway from being an undefeated top 10 team. There’s a million football related reasons to not feel good about this game 

On paper, it should be what you said. They have won on the road, but remember that once M wins, that team is considered crap. I read a lot, heard a lot from podcasts. Most of those comments, opinions state that we lose. I am actually surprised that Brian thinks we win by 2. So, tbh, I can't be confident other than to look at everything negative about this team, history, Harbaugh, and say they lose by a lot. I think they can win 31-10, but my BPONE says they lose 12-10. 

Wisconsin's strength has the potential to nullify our Plan A, especially if it's not creative. Also, I'm not sold on our DL being effective against their OL. It seems to me that Wisconsin will be able to run a fair bit and will be able to (mostly) stop our running game. That's why we will have a difficult time, even you forget Harbaugh's big-game and road woes, which of course we shouldn't.

Regardless of the score, there will be no doubt about who hit the hardest. And that folks, wins imaginary games. 

Because we will have to pass to beat them.  

But we either do not like doing that or cannot do that or for some other secret reason that we have yet to uncover, we will not do that.  How many times have we gone into these games and everybody knows what you have to do to beat team 'x' and we just don't do it?  Then half the board spends the following week arguing about the logical reasons why we didn't or couldn't.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  

I'm fine if we fight hard, have a solid game plan and end up losing.  But that's not how we have tended to lose these big games.  Please let the QB(s) throw, LOTS. Please let the QB(s) run.

34-10? Lol

Sure. The one thing Michigan is good at, Wisconsin is REALLY good at stopping. Their defense is excellent in general, and particularly good at shutting down the run. Because we have a shaky passing game, there is good reason to believe that our offense could be nonexistent tomorrow.

And Wisconsin's offense is bad, too... but there is a decent chance that they will be able to move Michigan's DTs and do better on the ground than we do. 

I mean, it could go either way. This will likely be a tight defensive battle, so one or two big plays could decide it, and maybe Michigan hits those big plays. But maybe they don't. 

Not hard to see Wisconsin winning this. Sadly, I expect it to happen. 

Michigan faced their best defensive opponent yet last week. They made the ground game come to a halt and Cade couldn't get anything going in the passing game. I'm not going to pretend that it meant nothing. If the offensive playcalling and the quarterbacking is as bad as it was against Rutgers, Michigan will struggle very badly again.

Your approach of ignoring an inept half of football is denial that there are issues with this team still.

Michigan is a running team and Wisky has the top DL in the country.

Other than that, no.

We couldn’t run the ball (in the second half) on Rutgers. Rutgers. And Harbaugh/Gattis refused to adapt to what Rutgers’ defense threw at them. I don’t doubt that Schiano has improved that squad, but that was incredibly disheartening, and Wisconsin’s defense is for real. 69 total rushing yards against your defense in three games is incredible. Don’t give a fuck who the opponents are. 

I’m not saying there’s no chance tomorrow. There absolutely is. My worry is just that opportunity will be there but Harbaugh will refuse to take advantage of it because he wants to stay committed to a certain type of gameplan and a certain offensive mentality, and that kind of loss would hurt even more. 

If Wisconsin just straight up beats Michigan tomorrow, with both teams playing their best game, then so be it. We should all be able to live with that. But if they win because Michigan refused to adapt on offense and kept trying things that just didn’t work, then that would just hurt so much more. 

20-14 Wisconsin. I’m begging you to prove me wrong, Harbaugh. You have the horses and the scheme to pull it off. 

Wisconsin has a very good defense and we haven't seen how Cade does when he's under intense pressure. He'll need to pass if we want to win, so his performance will probably decide whether we can score. 

This’ll be the best offensive line they’ve seen, and, unlike Washington, the defense is likely to keep them close, allowing the whole playbook to be used. They’ve paved Michigan on several occasions. We need to see, especially in the second half, assuming the game is close, that the front can hold up. 

Harbaugh is so scared of the big mistake in close games that he won't do anything bold/creative in the second half as the screws begin to tighten. You won't see him make any throws downfield in the fourth quarter, and you won't see him try a sweep or reverse ... unless we're losing. 

The benefit is, indeed, you don't see big interceptions, there are very few big sacks, and we can (slowly) grind the clock down, hoping to hold on by our fingernails.

The downside is, he simply won't let his team make big plays when we need them, and the only way we can win close games is to hope the clock runs out before their comeback is complete.

Now, if we're down in the second half, he'll unleash the offense. Think Penn State two years ago, or Rutgers last year. Then the offense becomes aggressive -- and effective. But you won't see it if we're ahead or tied in the fourth quarter.

Our game plan is absolutely designed to create close games -- and keep games close. That's the entire purpose of it. So even if we play good football in the first half -- no matter how effective it is -- we simply won't in the second half. So ... we'll lose on a late score, 17-16.

You started drinking early didn’t you?

Ahhhh....a preemptive snowflake post that couldn't possibly have gone in any other thread. Well done OP.

If anyone wants a little perspective on that 20 year drought in Madison that's drilled into our heads repeatedly, it actually consists of 5 games.  And they all had unfortunate factors that didn't help.  

2005 - No Mike Hart.  And even in that contest, Wisconsin had to score with 24 seconds left in the game to beat us by 3. 

2007 - No Mike Hart.  No Chad Henne.  You get to play us without our QB and our best running back who are both seniors?  Merry f*cking Christmas. 

2009 - Year 2 of RichRod.  The only opponent we could beat in the last 8 weeks of the season was Delaware State.  We were a trainwreck.  It had nothing to do with Camp Randall.

2017 - The year of endless injuries to QB.  Peters played OK and that game was close until late in the 3rd.  No real surprise here with how both teams were playing at this point.

2019 - Wisconsin was better, not 21 points better but that's what happened.  And we did look like dog turd the first 5 weeks of the season anyway. 

One of my biggest concerns is not specifically a Wisconsin problem but the fact that every damn opponent makes little to no mistakes against us but they'll make a laundry list of mistakes against everyone else.  Like in game one of the season where the Badgers were playing Penn State; they had a first & goal but Mertz and his running back muffed the handoff and turned the ball over.  My reaction?  That wouldn't have been a fumble if they were playing Michigan.  Or last week when ND's quarterback threw one of the easiest pick 6 passes but the Badger player somehow dropped it.  My reaction?  He catches that and scores if it's against Michigan.  

Wisconsin is a team that makes many mistakes.  Yet I know they won't make them against us. 

I think there is certainly a logical reason to believe Michigan won't win this game, but from a pure player talent perspective there is no reason why Michigan can't win this game.

Jim Harbaugh's road record against competitive teams isn't as abysmal as it is by chance. He plays an extremely conservative brand of offensive football. On a macro level, I think teams that pull off a road upset typically take some calculated risks with the play calling, and those plays hit which shifts the tides of momentum towards the underdog. This is not Jim Harbaugh's philosophy. He wants to avoid turnovers at all costs, play good defense, and shorten the game by controlling the clock through the running game.  While to a degree some of this makes sense in certain context, it is hard to knock off good teams at home if you play a plodding, conservative style of football because it is the anti-thesis of taking calculated risk to hit on some high variance, big plays.

In short, there is valid reason to believe Michigan won't win this game, because Jim Harbaugh's track record when it comes to offensive play calling suggests he will play very conservative, risk averse football in an effort to minimize turnovers and attempt to control the clock, but in turn won't afford his team enough big play opportunities to actually  take the game from the opponent. He will attempt to win the game in a rock fight, and that's the type of game Wisconsin will have the best opportunity to win.  

Aside from the very obvious troubling issues with Harbaugh as head coach? LOL!

As many have pointed out Wisconsin happens to have tis soul crushing run D that if allowed to stack 8 in the box like Rutgers, will absolutely demolish UM's run game. For UM to have any success, they will HAVE to throw the ball and throw it well. The run game must be diversified aside from running between the guards. Henning has GOT to touch the ball more than 0 times on offense. And lastly, the game needs moved to Ann Arbor. 

I just don't see things going well tomorrow. But if they lose in a game where they are being competitive and don't look like the 2nd half of last Saturday then I can live with that.

Problems are Harbaugh is the coach, we tend to slip back into the habit of running into walls, our passing game seems to be non-existent, while Wisconsin is INT prone we aren't exactly a defense that gets many turnovers, its on the road, we are underdogs and we just don't play well in Madison.

History means nothing except the part where we’ve yet to see a Harbaugh coached Michigan team perform well on the road vs an opponent with a pulse. Other than that, no reason to be pessimistic. 

“Perceived.”

?

I wouldn’t be surprised at much tomorrow to be honest.

my take: M13 - W12

Michigan gets a TD and two field goals wouldn’t be surprised if the TD is on special teams.   Wiscy gets 4 field goals and a lot of yards Coach Macs bend but don’t break D lives to fight another day.