Article with compiled mock NBA drafts for Houston and Diabate
Subject line says it all.
Summary:
ESPN: Houstan (30)
SI.com: Houstan (34), Diabaté (44)
Bleacher Report: Houstan (46)
The Athletic: Houstan (36)
Yahoo: Houstan (44)
USA Today: none
CBS Sports (three)*: none
The Ringer*: none
SB Nation*: none
*first-round only
I realize it's Houstan.
In before the smartass comments.
Houston, we have a problem!
Houstan, we have a problam.
Houstan we fixed the problem.
What fun would that be?
"Houstan's, we have a steak."
If you were in NYC it would probably be HOW-stan.
In NYC, it would definitely be HOW-stan. That is, HOW-stun.
Are you sure it wouldn’t be House-ton?
Dear Chal Mersey,
You might be right.
Sincerely, Bluev Et
If I'm the parent of either one of these guys, I'm advising them to come back for another year.
For years, the lottery has been littered with sophomores who improved their stock dramatically by coming back for a second year...after having been projected as a late 1st or 2nd round pick after their freshman year.
Just in this year's draft alone, you have Ivey, Murray, Mathurin and Davis all projected to go in the top 10.
In the last ten years, we can point to Burke, Stauskas, Franz, etc. at Michigan.
The increase in guaranteed money has to be worth delaying getting paid by one year.
You are absolutely right, but you are suggesting this from the perspective of a 1989 UM grad. Unfortunately, for young people (and us), instant gratification overrides both increased levels delayed gratification and the desire to satisfy the fan base.
If I'm the parent of either one of these guys
He can say he's acting from a parent's perspective all he wants, it doesn't mean his ideas are not influenced by his Michigan fandom. Even if he can't or won't admit it.
Well be that as it may, 1989grad submitted a fairly deep list of potential comps who returned for a 2nd season & greatly improved their draft stock - and therefore their guaranteed $.
So even if he can't or won't admit his Fandom compelled him to compile the list - he ain't wrong!
As mentioned below, there's no context. That's a list of like 8 guys and goes back 10 years. One would need to do a more comprehensive analysis of all those who left and those who stayed.
But even then, we also have no counterfactuals. i.e. no way of knowing whether guys like Ivey or Davis or Burke might have improved even more had they left and played professionally for a year instead of at the college level.
Nope. Not influenced by my fandom.
I'm not saying we are better without Diabete, but there's no doubt he's not a perfect fit next to Hunter...and I think this is Hunter's team this coming year.
I don't have any data, but isn't the conventional wisdom that most college basketball players make their biggest jump between their freshman and sophomore years? There has to be something to the sentiment that the HS to college transition is a challenge...in terms of the speed of the game, the size/athleticism of the opponents, learning the intracacies of the plays, etc.
If Houstan can even out his home/away shooting splits, add size/strength, and show some additional ability to create his own shots, he could easily be a lottery pick in a year. I'm also guessing a sophomore Houstan would have even more of a green light to shoot almost at will. He'd have a significant chance to showcase his skills on a team that would be competitive...and is often in the spotlight.
Good lord, you essentially accuse the previous poster of a priviledge-y take while making one yourself. It's not about "instant gratification" for most NBA prospects, who overwhelmingly come from modest to very modest means. They are often the first in their family to get a chance to "make it," and many of them feel overwhelming pressure to do so -- especially given the chance of injury or regression. It's just not about "kids these days." It's about living in the real world.
Yeah, it's super interesting. For every guy where you could make a case that you could make $3 million a year v. $1 million a year by waiting, you have to consider the "discount rate" of the delay.
We don't know everyone's situation, but imagine if Kwity Paye were a basketball player and had Diabate's situation; we all know he grew up as a poor refugee, so getting $1 million right now is HUGE, compared to a more speculative $3 million in a year. I don't think anyone would begrudge him that.
Kwity stayed at Michigan 4 years - absolutely NO ONE told him he should stay longer, on this blog or any other place I'm aware of!
Next example?
I'm not sure where you studied economics or accounting, but there's not even a close call between making $1 million a year right now...or waiting just one year to make $3 million.
Even a jump from a 2nd round pick to a middle/late 1st round pick is worth millions of dollars in the first contract...let alone the additional opportunity to make and stay on the team that you get when you're a 1st round pick.
But you’re discounting the fact that the $1 million is there for the taking now and the $3 million is hypothetical. Most people will take the guaranteed cash now. Let’s face it these kids work their whole lives to get to this point. So in a ton of cases if they will hear their name called on draft night, they will opt for that sooner rather than later.
If a player starts his rookie contract earlier, he then gets his first real contract a year earlier and those are much bigger than $3M. So starting the clock on those earlier is likely to lead to higher career earnings, all else equal. Gotta take that into consideration.
When you frame it as getting significantly more money by waiting a year or taking $1million it seems simple. But there's a not insignificant chance that less money is on the table a year from now. Make it a 50-50 proposition instead and it's obvious the player should go now.
Injuries happen. Not everyone improves. And improving a little may make your draft stock lower. Meanwhile, you also have to consider where you can improve the most and it may not be in college.
Right, and I'm not saying it's "rational", all things being equal, but it's like the below commenter said, if you don't have much money, do you take guaranteed money now that's significantly less than what you could potentially make, or take more of a chance that you could double your money or more down the line? If you feel secure and it's just the equivalent of winning the lottery, OK, wait, but if you really need the money, then it's a different decision.
I think the prospect of being able to focus solely on basketball instead of having to deal with all the BS of being a student at the same time is extremely attractive to these kids. It's probably the most attractive part.
They'd be getting paid to work on their game, even if its only in the G League. No other distractions. It would certainly attract me, especially if I felt my future is in the NBA, not in an office somewhere.
Before NIL that was a very sound point - I now submit a person drafted at 30 (where Houstan is presumably going) has a pretty good chance to meet or beat the NBA guarantee for that slot with NIL.
And for a person drafted in the 2nd rd? I guaran-damn-tee it!
Now, there has been talk Moussa isn't eligible for NIL, as a foreign student. And also talk they're addressing that technicality. So I can't speak to his needs.
But I would bet Chris Hinton, for example, lost $ entering into the draft. You have to readjust your rationale for current circumstances Mack.
Both players are “foreign students” so that plight would apply to each young man. Also, who else on the team is making serious money through NIL besides Hunter? I think the hope from all of us would be that the cash would be flowing in through the program but from the outside it doesn’t look like the case. Furthermore, you still didn’t dispel the notion of having the opportunity to be around NBA players, have access to their medical and training staffs, and work on your game without restrictions might be worth more than the NIL money to some guys.
The 30th pick is guaranteed 4m over 2 years . . .
There's not much instant gratification in going undrafted or in maybe having to schlep off to Europe. The contract of a late 2nd rounder might get him a guaranteed year.
Both of them have enough talent to make it to the first round. I expect they'll listen to advice.
Jordan Poole says hello. Also, I suspect Dickinson had a better chance of getting drafted last year than this year.
I don't know, maybe you're right, but picking a couple of recent anecdotes doesn't convince me. Is there real data to back up that claim? I suspect it's a mix; some players improve their stock and some slide down for one reason or another.
Jordan Poole was a sophomore when he left...
sure, but then he couldn't use the cool "XXXX says hello" line, so not relevant here.
Haha, fair enough. I guess I fixated on "the go back to school and improve your draft stock" part.
What if Houstan doesn't exactly think he's gonna improve? What if he thinks this is his best shot and if he stays another year he may not get drafted at all?
One Shot, One Opportunity, Mom's Spaghetti.
If he legitimately feels that way then sure but only if it's a guaranteed contract. Because if he does not improve, he will not be in the league very long.
I kinda feel that this is what's going on. Deep down he might realize that he's not as good as he always thought. So when he had one great shooting workout with OKC and they promised to spend the last of their 3 first round picks on him he decided to cash that in now.
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
I wouldn't take a pro teams draft "promise" to the bank.
These have actually been somewhat reliable. There must be some sort of code in place in the NBA.
I agree with others that Houstan should flee. If he returns to UM and doesn't move the needle much, his 5-star status will mean less.
I don't think a GM could ever make a promise like that again if he burned a kid. Or at least I don't think that he could make a promise like that and be taken seriously again.
This is the value of agents. The GM doesn't just burn the kid, he burns the agent. And the agent has an incentive to let everyone know that it was the GM, not the agent, who lied to the kid.
Exactly, agents wouldn't put up with this
Yeah, and if I'm Houstan and certain I'll be a ton better next year and improve my stock, by all means wait, but if he thinks me might be about the same, just older, get your money now. Worst case, he goes and does his "day job" sooner than he thought by flaming out of the league, but still has a cool couple million bucks in the bank.
I think it's odd that they would do so, so early. But I think it's probably clear that if a team goes back on that the blow back would be rough. Probably happens, but...I would think GM's are extra careful in such a player dominated league.
In the NFL? Wouldn't trust shit. They can toss you out any time
Then a Michigan degree plus several years over seas playing ball is his best route. If he will be a white collar working man for 30 years that degree is worth every penny.
There is absolutely ZERO chance Houstan thinks that about himself - but not all unlikely that you feel that way about him!
Got to throw in Jamal Crawford vs LaVell Blanchard.
It's just not obvious how well most college players will do as a pro, when they are ready, or when is the best time to go. Just look at, say, the 2017 draft, how many all stars and how many busts in the top 10.
Holy cow that's going back a long way. Plus way different circumstances as Crawford was basically forced out by the NCAA's insistence to focus on the wrong things. He almost didn't have a chance to stay and no one could have seen the long NBA career he would enjoy.
Blanchard was a very good player but never really a great athlete although you could potentially use him as an example where coming back didn't help him. But that was so long ago...
That's the whole point though.
Maybe Crawford had a long career because he was able to develop as a young player without the constraints of school. And yes, Blanchard was probably never going to be an NBA athlete (and to the point of Crawford, could have hurt his chances by staying in college where practice time is limited) so he probably should have taken money while his stock was high.
For every guy like Jaden Ivey that improves his stock (and who's to say he wouldn't have improved even more in the pros this past year?), there might be two guys that come back and stagnate and become less attractive to the NBA because they're older and no longer projectable.
If you have a team willing to draft you, you probably need to go because that's going to be your best opportunity to fully dedicate yourself to your profession. That team has committed to investing a great deal in you.
But would be interested in seeing a comprehensive analysis and not just cherry picking some guys that improved their stock.