Another NFL mock draft update

Submitted by oriental andrew on March 12th, 2024 at 10:39 AM

Lot of action with Kirk Cousins leaving MIN to go to ATL (my hometown team and given that Cousins just seems to be a genuinely good person and solid QB, I can't hate on him), MIN signing Sam Darnold to a 1-year deal (portending a QB in the draft), Jacoby Brisset to NE (another bridge with QB in the draft), Russell Wilson to PIT, and Justin Fields maybe missing out on the last spot in musical chairs (although maybe DEN, unless they ALSO trade up for a QB). 

With that said, a number of mocks were updated recently and here is a roundup of a few of them.

Long story short, JJ is mocked as high as #3 (!) and not lasting past the 11th pick (MIN currently, pending any trades). Of the 9 mocks I pulled, JJ's average position is #6. Five of the mocks have him going to MIN, two to NYG, one to NE, one to DEN.  It should be noted that all the ones updated on 3/11 or later peg him as a future Viking. 

As for DET, DE and DB are the popular first round picks, with one pick for an OL and one for a WR. 

Only one mock I pulled had a 2nd round, with 3 more Wolverines picked. 

USA Today (3/12)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE Drake Maye
  • 4 ARI Marvin Harrison Jr
  • 5 MIN (via LAC) JJ McCarthy
  • Would Minnesota be content to trade to this spot knowing it might have to settle for its fourth choice to replace Kirk Cousins? Maybe a move wouldn't be reasonable until draft day, when general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Co. could see how the top few picks panned out. But going with Sam Darnold as a bridge option to start off 2024 while sitting and developing McCarthy seems like a relatively sound strategy for an organization that suddenly has had change behind center thrust upon it.
  • 29 DET Darius Robinson (DE, Mizzou)
  • The native of Southfield, Michigan, said at the NFL scouting combine it would be a "dream come true" to be taken by his hometown team. With the Lions adding Marcus Davenport opposite Aidan Hutchinson, Robinson could begin his career as part of a pass-rush rotation and hone his considerable physical tools at a moderate pace. 

CBS Sports has 5 different guys with mock drafts, so just putting in the landing spots for JJ and the DET picks. 

Ryan Wilson (3/5)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE JJ McCarthy (!!!)
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 MIN Drake Maye
  • 29 DET Chop Robinson

Chris Trapasso (3/6)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE MHJr
  • 4 ARI Rome Odunze
  • 5 LAC Taliese Fuaga
  • 6 NYG JJ McCarthy (in this mock, Drake Maye falls to 11 MIN)
  • 29 DET Darius Robinson (DE, Mizzou)

Josh Edwards (3/7)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Drake Maye
  • 3 NE Jayden Daniels
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 LAC Malik Nabors
  • 8 DEN (from ATL) JJ McCarthy 
  • 29 DET Jordan Morgan (NTJM - OT, Arizona)

Tom Fornelli (3/9)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE Drake Maye
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 MIN (from LAC) JJ McCarthy
  • 29 DET Tyler Nubin (S, Minnesota)

Kyle Stackpole (3/4)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Drake Maye
  • 3 NE Jayden Daniels
  • 4 NYG (from ARI) JJ McCarthy
  • 5 LAC MHJr
  • 29 DET Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)

The Athletic (3/11)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Drake Maye
  • 3 NE Jayden Daniels
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 CHI (from LAC) Rome Odunze
  • 6 MIN (from NYG) JJ McCarthy
  • It seems inevitable that a QB-needy team will leapfrog Atlanta (or which team ultimately holds the eighth pick) to ensure the next best prospect is still there.

    I have my qualms with the passer McCarthy is right now, relative to his draft stock, but he has some enticing tools — and he’s still early on his developmental curve. He would walk into a healthy offensive situation, and it’s possible Minnesota will have a bridge QB he can sit behind until he’s ready. After Chicago, this would be the best landing spot for a rookie QB.

  • 29 DET Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
  • Detroit has a tight window of opportunity to stay at the top of the NFC, so don’t be surprised if GM Brad Holmes trades for L’Jarius Sneed and uses this pick on the best player available. Until free agency shakes out, though, cornerback is the biggest need on this roster. McKinstry doesn’t have eye-popping measurables or speed scores, but the SEC decided he wasn’t worth throwing at in 2023, because of how smooth and sticky he is in coverage.

The Draft Network (3/11)

 

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE Drake Maye
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 MIN (from LAC) JJ McCarthy
  • The Vikings should focus on resetting the QB position. Trading up to select a toolsy J.J. McCarthy to fit within Kevin O'Connell's offense with a great WR duo sounds like the move to make!
  • 29 DET Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
  • Dan Campbell has needed CBs for long enough. Terrion Arnold is the answer to their questions in the secondary. He fits the culture of toughness and grit. He is arguably the best mover in the class. Whether in pass coverage or run support, Arnold will bring everything to the fight.
  • 42 LAC (from MIN) Blake Corum (totally something Harbaugh would do)
  • 56 DAL Kris Jenkins
  • 61 Detroit Mason McCormick (IOL, S Dakota St)
  • 64 KC Mike Sainristil

PFF (3/11)

  • 1 CHI Caleb Williams
  • 2 WAS Jayden Daniels
  • 3 NE Drake Maye
  • 4 ARI MHJr
  • 5 LAC Malik Nabers
  • 11 MIN JJ McCarthy
  • Minnesota’s quarterback situation is in serious flux if recent rumors of Kirk Cousins’ departure are true. McCarthy lands in an ideal situation with a team that finished 2023 in the top eight in pass-blocking and receiving grades. The Vikings also have an elite play caller in Kevin O’Connell who would use McCarthy’s athleticism to his advantage.

  • 29 DET Adonia Mitchell (WR, Texas)

  • The Lions have needs on defense, but this mock hasn’t fallen their way on that front. Instead, they opt to upgrade an outside receiver spot with Josh Reynolds possibly leaving in free agency. Nobody throws in routes better than Jared Goff. And nobody in this draft class runs in routes better than Adonai Mitchell. While it isn’t quite that simple, Mitchell would bring a size-speed element that the Lions don’t currently possess.

bronxblue

March 12th, 2024 at 11:07 AM ^

Seems about right, even though I think for his long-term career success you'd hope to land somewhere like Minnesota (which has some receiver talent and potential) over a place like NE or NYG, who have quite a bit more rebuilding to do.

I also have no idea why people are slotting Daniels over Maye.  Daniels is a talented guy but if I'm an NFL team my concerns are he's going to get hurt with the way he plays, and Maye has a great arm and arguably has done just as well with less talent around him.

1VaBlue1

March 12th, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^

I'll just place this here...  I DO NOT WANT JJ going to either the Vikings or the Bears.  Simply because I don't want him destroying the Lions a couple of years from now.  I trust Brad Holmes and believe in MCDC.  But I also think McCarthy will be the best of this years group of QB's in a couple of years.  And it won't be a question.

bighouseinmate

March 13th, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^

It’s not crazy to think that he might end up in Chicago, though. From what I’ve read the bears are not really all in on Williams and might find a trade partner within the top five for the top pick that would allow them to bank some more draft stock plus get the QB they really want (I’m betting it’s either Maye or JJ).  

How many of the QB needy teams would give up another first rounder or two (on top of this year’s) to be able to draft Williams?

SC Wolverine

March 12th, 2024 at 11:28 AM ^

Much as I would love to see Blake reunited with Jimmy, I just don't see it.  The Chargers should absolutely take an OT, but Harbaugh and Brock Bowers would be hard to pass up.  In any case, they should definitely trade down, since there are several players who would fit them as a 1st round pick.  I'm sold on the Vikings trading up and taking JJ and happy for him if they do.  He will be terrific in that offense.  Not good for Lions fans though.

alum96

March 12th, 2024 at 12:33 PM ^

Ekeler signed a 2 year contract with Washington and Chargers couldn't afford him anyhow so yes a RB is in play despite the Gus Edwards signing.  Can you imagine Blake playing with a guy named Edwards.... ?

Edwards is 29 which is 60 in running back years aside a few freaks like Henry.

Nickel

March 12th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^

Thanks for gathering it all up in a single post, sounds like he's got a chance at a decent landing spot in terms of talent around him and not playing behind a sieve of an offensive line.

Perkis-Size Me

March 12th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^

I hope JJ stays as far away from the Giants as possible. No OL, no weapons except a Saquon Barkley that seems to be injured half the time, and a head coach that seems to be on his last life. Either NY franchise would ruin JJ's career before it even had a chance to start. 

Minnesota is probably the best spot for him to go as far as the team that is currently there. Arguably the top WR in the league, solid OL from what I gather, good TE. He'd be set up for success from Day 1. Denver is intriguing, though, as a long term option. I'd be curious to see if Sean Payton could ultimately mold McCarthy into something similar with what he had with Drew Brees.

Don't get me wrong, Denver is going to have rough sledding these next few years as it gets out from under that disastrous cap situation with Russell Wilson, but as long as Payton sticks around long enough to get out from under that, I'm curious to see what he could mold that franchise into. 

I'm sure Seattle would love to have him, but I'm not sure they'll be willing to trade the amount of necessary draft capital it'll take to move up and get him. 

Perkis-Size Me

March 12th, 2024 at 1:07 PM ^

Proves my point even more, SQ. 

Whoever steps into that QB situation in NY next season, whether its Daniel Jones, JJ McCarthy, or anyone else is stepping into a situation where they're more or less being set up to fail. They have no reliable weapons of any kind, no offensive line, and a very unstable coaching situation.

I really hope, for JJ's sake, that the Giants do not take him, or someone else is able to take him before the Giants can pick. 

nerv

March 12th, 2024 at 12:02 PM ^

Most of these college tackles are NFL guards. Morgan is best suited to playing inside in the NFL but does have enough athleticism some teams will give him a shot at OT. In the Lions case he would start out at guard and be a possible Decker replacement down the line outside at tackle.

alum96

March 12th, 2024 at 12:45 PM ^

Things can change fast in the NFL.  If you don't have a Mahomes you pretty much have a tight window.  See Bills and Bengals - punting players they no longer can afford despite top QBs.  

Salary cap will be filled with these guys in 2 years:

  • Goff
  • Hutch
  • Amon
  • Sewell (will reset the mkt for tackles)
  • McNeill (go look at the going rate for a decent DT)

LaPorta Branch Gibbs and maybe Campbell follow the next year.

Still have Ragnow and Decker at pretty chunky salaries as well.    I didn't include Jamo as I cannot see them putting $45M+ into 2 receivers if Jamo pans out here next 2 years. Amon will be $25M+

Now if Holmes can continue his magic in the draft the window extends but expecting 3 starters a year and a few All Pros every 3 classes would be abnormal. 

jmstranger

March 12th, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^

I think like Ryan Wilson apparently. If it’s JJ or Maye at #3 I think NE goes with JJ. If they have the option of drafting Daniels, I think they pick Daniels and JJ falls down a bit to whichever team is trading up to get him. Seems pretty clear that 4 QBs are going to go in the top 10

nerv

March 12th, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^

29 is not a good spot for the Lions. They will either end up drafting BPA which will not address the teams biggest needs or they will reach for a guy ranked in the 40'ish range. Ultimately Ill be quite surprised if Detroit ends up drafting at 29, I think Holmes is going to end up trading up or down.

Robinson out of Missouri to me fills the same role as Josh Paschal. DE/DT tweener who lacks outside pass rush abilities. Id take a shot on him in the mid 2nd round but a sturdy run defending DE without a ton of pass rush upside doesnt scream 1st round pick to me. The Lions are supposedly higher on Marshawn Kneeland out of WMU than they are Robinson. I think Kneeland has more potential while likely having a lower floor.

There are a group of CB's who are all in that early 2nd range. Kool-Aid, TJ Tampa, Ennis Rakestraw, even Khyree Jackson & Kamari Lassiter are pretty much just behind them. I would rather not be the first team to select from that group and take one at 29 -- though probably none of them will be available at 61.

Hotel Putingrad

March 12th, 2024 at 1:26 PM ^

Three things:

1) I've yet to see a compelling argument for taking Williams instead of Daniels FOA. I mean, he's put up better numbers against tougher competition.

2) Drake Maye is going to be this year's Will Levis. He won't slide to the second round, but he'll definitely slide.

3) Denver seems pretty set on Nix. The question is whether Minnesota can still get JJ at 11, or will they have to move up. He is tailor-made for a Kevin O'Connell offense.

 

Nobody Likes a…

March 12th, 2024 at 2:23 PM ^

Cousins just seems to be a genuinely good person and solid QB, I can't hate on him

 

Oh, but I can. I gave up on the dirty birds years ago, but you can't win anything with Cousins. Just know that when its 4th and the season he'll throw it short of the sticks. Signing a 34 year old coming off an acl to a 4 year deal. Wish.com Matt Ryan isn't worth it

DoubleWolverin…

March 12th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^

I do not understand why all the pundits thinks the Lions window is "tight." They are basing these opinions on past history with a terrible front office and coaching staff. These Lions should really be viewed at as a different organization. They have shown a sustainable approach to team-building and great draft history over the past three years, which in the NFL is not a small sample size.