Analysis of "Speed In Space", as seen by by 11W writer Kyle Jones.
I posted this link in a previous thread that has since been locked down (WARNING To MGoBoard Posters/Commenters), but curious to get the casual UM fan's general take on it. I respect the hell out of UM, and respect the rivalry even more. I generally agree with the article.. UM's offense made progress in the latter half of 19', but will need a more consistent QB to truly break through. I realize this is coming from your rival's perspective, but take it for what it's worth.
At this point in time, I'm all about any football #content I can find. Cheers to you all!
It’s a fair assessment highlighting that the success of the offense correlated with QB play.
I'm a night owl these days so I'll type out some of my thoughts.
1. Re: Poor QB play b/c of inferior QBs.
IMO, this is the single biggest reason OSU has dominated Michigan since the turn of the millennium.
From the mid 80s to 2000 (i.e. when Michigan dominated the rivalry), Michigan had a clear advantage at QB most every year.
Look up the QB names from those Michigan teams: Jim Harbaugh, Elvis Grbac, Todd Collins, Brian Griese, Tom Brady. Those guys were drafted and played in the NFL as starters. Meanwhile, OSU's QBs from those years were mostly forgettable JAGs (abbreviation for Just Another Guy).
After John Navarre in 2003, Michigan hasn't truly had the advantage.
Starting in 2004, OSU went from Troy Smith to JAG Boeckman to Terrelle Pryor to Braxton Miller to JT Barrett to back-up Cardale Jones and back to Barrett to Dwayne Haskins to Justin Fields.
OSU reached a new level of excellence due to its quiet adoption of some spread under Tressel which set the table for a smooth transition to Meyer's power spread offense. After Day was hired, he (along with former Oklahoma OC Kevin Wilson) installed air raid on top of power spread running.
Look up Troy Smith's Heisman-winning 2006 stats.
Those stats wouldn't even qualify him for all-conference 1st team Big Ten honors these days. Haskins nearly doubled Smith's 2006 passing yard stats and added 20 more passing TDs to finish with 50.
2. We're just trying to catch up.
When Urban Meyer took over Ohio State in 2012, he was not impressed by the speed on the team and said as much. He was surprised by OSU's lack of elite speed at the skill positions and set out to improve it. [Narrator: He did.]
That's the phase we're in after bringing in Josh Gattis.
We brought in a good athletic class on offense in 2020 with ATH AJ Henning, WR Roman Wilson, and RB Blake Corum to complement Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins. Now it's about reinforcing it with more athletic players like Xavier Worthy, Cristian Dixon, Donovan Edwards, etc.
3. But all the skill talent will be for nothing if we don't develop star QBs in QB-friendly systems *and* become relentlessly aggressive on offense (using things like tempo).
People forget that Michigan brought in the 2nd best WR class (DPJ, Tarik Black, Nico) in 2017 after Alabama's WR haul.
From that class, Alabama produced 2 1st rounders (Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs). Devonta Smith returned for his senior season and will probably be a 1st rounder in the 2021 draft.
Michigan? A 6th rounder and a transfer (albeit Black showed promise early but couldn't stay healthy). Nico has a chance to be a 2nd rounder with a great senior season.
But back to the point: WRs/TEs/RBs benefit from playing with truly elite QBs. We need to start producing elite, Heisman-caliber QBs like Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson do. That's a crucial step in closing the gap with the current elites.
I laughed when I saw "Navarre" and "advantage" in the same sentence (sorry, John), but I get your QB point.
I'd also suggest that Troy Smith was better than Henne only in context. Chad was a 2nd-round NFL draft pick who's still playing. On talent I don't think he's outclassed too much by his predecessors.
He did win the Heisman. He might not have been a better pro, but he was the better college QB.
Ive been a big apologist for Navarre to combat the ire for him on this board... I wonder if the same Navarre haters have repented...
He sucks
2003 Navarre was very good. Too many people just focus on 2001 when he was not ready and should not have been playing (but Henson to the Yankees changed that).
This is similar to Demetrius Brown who was awful in 1987, but beat Ohio State and beat USC in the Rose Bowl in 1988.
Guys do get better, and should be remembered for how they finished at Michigan more than how they started.
Just watched the BTN Michigan Classics game vs OSU in 1999. At that time, Lloyd Carr was 3-1 vs OSU and soon to become 4-1 in that 1999 game. Two things stood out to me: 1) OSU shot themselves in the foot with a crippling turnover, or two, in the second half when the game was there to be had; 2) Michigan consistently answered decisively on offense or defense to outmatch OSU's momentum. Seems that we cannot count on the critical OSU turnover anymore. OSU is much better coached these days. And we don't counter OSU's momentum anymore. Back in those days, not only did we counter their momentum but we used their momentum to bash their heads in and win the game, often by a wide margin. Nowadays we fold under the weight of our losing streak. I have no idea how this tide turns but I am hoping that we will see a glimmer of hope soon.
Not in the Notre Dame game.
I believe QB is the most difficult position to play in sports. The poor play of Patterson last year remains stunning to me-because I believe he had adequate talent. Between the poor decision-making, lack of composure and inability to connect with the wide open receivers he did happen to see-just stunning. Equally stunning is that, in the face of it all, Coach Harbaugh refused to give the under-study QBs a legitimate look-in real time. There was/is no apparent meritocracy here.
Gonna disagree on your last couple of sentences. I do believe that McCaffrey replaced Patterson in the UW game - for the season. Except for the head hunting... I don't think DCaff was ready before then, but if he wasn't concussed hard I doubt Patterson see's another start last year. Once injured, though, it allowed Patterson time to get more comfortable with the new offense while DCaff fell behind during recovery. I really think it was just bad circumstances last year - which seems to happen quite a bit to Michigan football.
I agree with this... McCaffrey was the starter until he flailed... but I will say this... Patterson striked me as someone like Brees, who had to sit for awhile, and simmer, to break through... Brees wasn't Brees until they had drafted Rivers and he realized his job was gone....only for the jackass Rivers to hold out...I do think had Patterson sat say, six games, realizing his job is gone, he'd have been forced to step up.
I watched the BTN Michigan Classics game vs Purdue in 1999. Brees looked AWFUL in that game. Really bad. It's amazing how much he has progressed in his career. Brady wasn't that much better. We simply out-athleted poor little Purdue. It's amazing to me how far those two QB's progressed to become the NFL hall of famers that they are today.
Think the narrative of Harbaugh having an issue replacing his QB is overplayed...He's done it at every stop he's been at but it is a nuanced situation that we as fans have no real idea of...
For example last year you are breaking in a new Offense...Shea get's injured on the FIRST play of the season (or was it series)..but given that it was a new offense and they were able to overmatch the early scheduled team I see why they stayed with him...then the turnover started and that slowed the offense down, bad decisions etc. So DC is likely taking more snaps in practice (to let Shea heal), learning the playbook and as he's ready to take over...he gets injured. Shea has a good stretch of games and he's it for the remainder of the season....from the outside looking in but that's the way it seemed to me.
I think by-and-large, this is a fair assessment of the Michigan offense last season. Not to continually rag on Patterson - he did a lot of good things last year as well - but, it was undeniable that he accounted for too many turnovers, negative plays and missed reads/throws on the field which hampered the total effectiveness of the offense in '19. If Milton/McCaffery can:
- minimize putting the ball on the turf (9 fumbles from your QB is absolutely brutal)
- make the correct keep/give decisions on the RPO
- reduce the missed reads and make the right play, not the big play (noted sometimes that is the right play)
More than anything, I got the impression Patterson was trying to do too much himself on any given play, rather than to just correctly distribute the football. If the defense is in a position to only yield 4-yards, take the 4 yards on first and second down, etc.
This offense should look a lot more explosive and efficient in 2020, whatever the season looks like. Good enough to take a run at OSU in Columbus this year?.. well, that's a different conversation.
...."9 fumbles from your QB is absolutely brutal."
One in particular was especially brutal. Michigan was standing toe-to-toe with OSU last year till Patterson muffed the snap on 3rd n goal and turned it over. You could literally see how much energy and confidence that pulled out of the team when it happened.
Should they be more resilient? Absolutely. But when a team has owned you for as long as OSU as owned us you simply can't have your leader on offense give points away by not paying attention on a crucial play.
You just cant.
A QB with ball security issues is the worst possible thing to have to deal with on offense. I have no proof for this, but I feel like Harbaugh promised Patterson the guaranteed starting job in order to get his transfer, and this significantly hampered the development of the QBs we recruited and were on the team - fewer reps in practice and fewer game speed reps to improve. A pattern I've seen before with Harbaugh that has a lasting impact on the program.
For me, if we were gonna lose 3 games and have zero shot at winning the B10 - why didn't we (Harbaugh) give our younger guys game reps to develop them - take the lumps and learning moments in a year where we were already having a sub par season and have the guys more ready to compete the next year.
Seems logical to me... but its incredibly frustrating and the same strategy he displayed in 2017 - to stick with the older transfer QB and hamper the development of QBs on the roster during a lost/losing season. O'korn started 9 games in 2017 where he threw for 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 6.2 YPA and nothing in the run game. I don't need to google any more stats to tell you he was the worst college QB I have ever seen that got significant time, collecting a 4-5 record with wins over Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Indiana and losses to Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and South Carolina (bowl). We were also ranked 115 out of 130 in QB sacked stats for the year, this is on the QB as much as the OL and just another frustrating data point. All this to say that Milton, McCaffrey, and Peters were tantalizing recruits and on the team - they deserved to grab more reps in practice and to learn at game speed in a lost year.
Your comments about Patterson's awful dropping of the snap reminded me of Speight on the goal line vs OSU in 2016. At this point in Q3 we are leading 10-7 and on the 1 yard line. OSU would hit a field goal as regulation time expired to force overtime and Speight dropped the ball on the 1 yard line which should have been an easy TD but at worst a FG and likely the difference in the game and a severe impact on the trajectory of UM and OSU. Just devastating.
The line between winning and losing is razor thin too and often we shit the bed on a key play. The unforced errors, lack of execution, and poor quarterback development have us in this position and it is my opinion that poor team leadership and poor roster management by Harbaugh is the primary reason we are still second tier in the B1G.
I agree with most everything you've said, but I feel that it should be noted that Harbaugh did pull Okorn during the Rutgers game. Peters would've probably taken over for the rest of the season if he didn't get destroyed in the Wiscy game the next week. It also became clear during the bowl game against SC that Peter's wasn't that great, so I can understand why Harbaugh was hesitant to start him.
We lost 2 young, promising QBs to Wisconsin for similar reasons. I hope this is not part of a trend.
The Speight fumble was arguably a wash since we got the ball back with a short field after stuffing their fake punt and then got the TD we missed out on.
BUT - if you want to offer that up as yet another entry in the heavier-than-Jim-McIlvaine's-sex-partners tome of dongpunch mental missteps in the Game over the course of this century.... ain't gonna get no disagreement from me.
O'korn didn't start against Wisconsin or South Carolina. And it's fair to say the Purdue game was a win for him after Speight went down. Much like Rutgers was a win for Peters. And you must be too young to remember Nick Sheridan, because he was worse than O'korn
Also, sacks allowed are not a 50/50 on the qb and o line. Out o line was terrible in pass pro, two qbs missed significant time because of it. And the Speight fumble was inconsequential to the end result of the game.. Your post is so wrong in so many ways, you'd be better off deleting it.
The play of Patterson this year was so frustrating. I kind of wonder if he got a longer leash because he was very good at avoiding turnovers in 2018. Also, there is no doubt in my mind that his injury hampered his season pretty significantly.
In 2018 he:
- Was extremely accurate
- Constantly bugged out of clean pockets
- Was very (too?) risk-averse with his passes
- Didn't throw many picks
- Didn't fumble much
- Was an excellent scrambler
- Was a wizard in the zone read game. He fooled the camera like 50% of the time
- Threw a really nice deep ball
Then in 2019 he:
- Was very inaccurate (even when he was putting up big numbers he was hitting wide open guys thanks to the scheme)
- Constantly bugged out of clean pockets
- Was even more risk-averse with his passes and waited too long on RPOs early in the season. In a rapid-fire passing game, this is destructive
- Constantly missed wide-open bombs
- Threw about the same number of picks
- Fumbled constantly
- Was afraid to run the ball under any circumstance
- Didn't participate in the zone read game
- Threw a really bad deep ball
I think a lot of this has to be his injury and I agree with the points above that McCaffrey was set to replace him in the Wisconsin game. McCaffrey wasn't back from injury until Shea was lighting up the scoreboard. Even if it's mostly from the scheme, you can't pull a QB who is playing well. Hopefully we see addition by subtraction this year.
I believe the mental hurdle will be as big an obstacle to clear as the physical one.
Just my opinion, but the mental hurdle is the biggest hurdle to clear. Michigan has enough talent on its roster to beat those guys. Sure, more always helps, but they have enough talent. If they didn't, then I guess Iowa and Purdue are more talented than Michigan, because they both sure whooped OSU in the last 2-3 years.
But OSU has a massive, massive psychological advantage going into playing Michigan. They've been so dominant for the last 20 years that the idea of losing physically doesn't exist for them. Its why they can go into The Game cool, collected and confident and know that even if they enter the 4th quarter down 3 scores, even if they throw a pick or commit a fumble, they still know they're going to come back and win. Because beating Michigan is all they've ever known.
Michigan, on the other hand, has to walk around on eggshells going into The Game. I don't think any man on Michigan's team is afraid of OSU's players or coaches. But I bet you they are all terrified to make a mistake. They go into each game believing that because they've been beaten down for the last 20 years, they have to play perfect in order to win. So you play tight and nervous. Then the mistakes start rolling in. Someone decides to untie an OSU RB's shoelace after he dragged you for 15 yards, or you commit a stupid PI penalty on 3rd and 12, which gives OSU a fresh set of downs, or you fumble inside OSU's 5 yard line when you're already down 10 and need to find a way to keep up. They're in your head. Before you know it, you look up at the scoreboard and it says 21-6, OSU. And its not even halftime.
Had Harbaugh beaten OSU in 2016 (or 2017), OSU's entire psychological advantage goes away, and I guarantee it paves the way for more wins over OSU, whether they're against Meyer or Day. But it didn't happen, so now I find myself questioning whether Michigan can beat OSU sometime in the next decade. As things stand right now, I'd tell you I don't see any way of that happening. If they're lucky, they'll have a few games where its within a score going into the 4th quarter, but Michigan will make a stupid mistake or two and give OSU the game, or let them come from behind and win because of turnovers or bad penalties.
Have you looked @ the roster?the last 4 recruiting classes signed 4(includes Patterson) top 100 recruits to OSU's 35.osu has more top 10 recruits than that. No way UM has enough talent right now. Unless you think UM's staff has developed players better than OSU has the last 4 years?
Harbaugh needs a better staff for recruiting. I'd almost say it would be better to have bad position coaches if they were ace recruiters. Almost.
If you think talent is the only reason we're losing to OSU, then I don't know what to tell you. Yes, they have more talent, but there is enough talent on our current roster to beat those guys. Clemson hasn't recruited as well as OSU, and they are probably comparable to Michigan's recruiting, but as far as I can see they are 3-0 against OSU in the last seven years alone.
If you disagree with that too, then please explain to me how Iowa and Purdue (far, far less talented teams than OSU or Michigan in any given year) didn't just beat OSU, but absolutely throttled them. If talent is your only measuring stick, then OSU should never lose another Big Ten game ever again.
Also, I know this wasn't part of your original point, but if I had to choose between position coaches who were ace recruiters but shitty coaches, or vice versa, I take ace coaches who are shitty recruiters all day. MSU couldn't recruit elite players to save its own life, but they had a staff full of guys who knew how to identify players that best fit their system and develop the hell out of them to make them a great overall team. That team beat a lot of other teams that, on paper, had far more talent.
If anyone would rather have ace recruiters who are shitty position coaches, just go picket outside Schembechler Hall and ask for Brady Hoke to come back. Because that's what you'll get. You'll get a really talented team that can't even beat Maryland. Or a team that lets a nobody like Gary Nova play like Joe Montana's and Tom Brady's offspring.
Im with your thinking on this. But QBs for Michigan just haven't had that mental radar and quick, accurate arm. But beyond that, there is a mental wall that has been built over the past recent years. One great leader could light a fire and string together several good series absent of goofy fumbles and mental vacations in the game and add something we havent seen much of in the last three years, momentum.
I think it's a fair assessment, as a lot of 11W content is. We all watch the games. I do think the gap between us and OSU narrows very quickly if we can get elite QB play, hopefully from Dylan or Milton.
Ive been a big proponent of Speight, and thought Harbaugh should have stuck with him instead of pursuing Patterson... but then I forgot that goal line fumble....that was probably why Harbaugh decided to get another QB, thinking Speight couldn't handle the moment. Though I still think he should have stuck with Speight. The team was very close with him, and seemed to have slid back with Patterson.
I can't disagree with the article, but I also wouldn't put it all directly on Patterson (as the author seems to have done). Without defending Patterson's play, several things combined to impact the team. It was a first year offense - always a transition year, and we (again) over-estimated what we'd get early on. I don't think they were as ready for Army as they should've been, and the poor results seemed to play on the nerves of both the players and coaches. The following games were all played hesitantly, cautiously. That changed at halftime of PSU - it feels like they just threw caution to the wind and started playing to win. I wish they would have done that a few games earlier.
At QB, I think Patterson had the #1 position as the incumbent and so got more time running Gattis' stuff than anyone else. By the time DCaff caught even, Shea was reeling. I really believe that the UW game was his swan song at UM - until DCaff was targeted, twice. DCaff was playing very well, and was moving the ball fairly easily. That bullseye on his helmet effectively ended his season. While he recovered, he fell way behind Shea to the point where he wasn't going to replace him. So long as DCaff stays healthy this season, I think we'll have far superior QB play than Patterson ever gave us (save for maybe three games - UW & PSU in 2018, and ND in 2019).
As for OSU... I expect a big efficiency gain in this years offense, with the defense holding pat. I'm okay with the talent level JH will put on the field against OSU - similar enough to win the game. What I worry about is the mental state of his team. Since 2016, I feel they get pretty soft when it gets hard. Take last year - they played a tough first half, but seemed to give up after the fumble and resultant OSU TD drive. They started looking for quick fixes (untying shoes, late hits) instead of playing sound football.
Firm up the mental side, start looking at OSU with an edge. Play to beat the ever-loving shit out of them rather than just hoping to hold on for win in a close game. They look to run it up on us, and do so with relish. I wish Harbaugh coach his team to return the favor. I've never felt that he wanted to just beat the shit out of an opponent, relentlessly. He's been content to just get a win and get home. That won't cut it down in that truck stop cess pool...
I agree completely with the mental aspect of the OSU series. This coaching staff needs to find a way to conjure up a mental edge in this series that isn't going to be created from momentum. That's not easy to do, but it is something that needs to be done irregardless. The team needs to believe they can not only hang with, but beat the shit out of Ohio State even in the face of no historical evidence that they can.
Ohio State believes they can do that to Michigan because they have done it over-and-over again, Michigan does not have that luxury - so they are going to have to manufacture that mindset themselves, it won't come organically. It seems that Ohio State enters that game with a different objective than Michigan - kick their ass - because they have the historical results that they can do it. You can't go into that game timid and worried about making mistakes, playing on egg-shells will make you a sitting duck. Gotta go out there and let it rip.
They were doing that early last year, but as soon as a little adversity hit, they basically folded and started playing scared and undisciplined. The best approach as a coach I think is to instruct your players to go out there and not worry what the scoreboard says. Remain discipline on your assignments, play your ass off, don't be afraid of making mistakes - if there is evidence of a player not doing those three things, you get pulled. Game plan-wise, throw the kitchen sink at them and see what happens. Can't be anything worse than what we've seen the last 2 years in the rivalry.
I will say to your second point though - Harbaugh was absolutely looking to beat the shit out of MSU and PSU as well when he has a chance to do so. I think he would do the same to OSU if the team put themselves in a position to it. That said, I don't see any team in America that can "beat the shit" out of OSU, they are too talented unless they make multiple self-inflicted wounds.
An interesting thing about the mental part and the 2016 game is that most of those guys are gone now. I do think for Harbaughs earliest classes the optimism had deteriorated. I think that played a role in DPJ and Black leaving.
I’m cautiously optimistic that the young guys who weren’t there for that have less of a mental hurdle about the game. I got that sense watching the young guys last year late in the game. They still seemed involved. Especially Sanristil and Charbonnet.
The problem was Patterson fumbled all the time, couldn't find open WRs, and didn't want to keep it on RPO...that's all.
Yeah, he was pretty bad at every type of option in our option-heavy offense.
- Too hesitant for the quick-pop RPOs in the passing game (at least for half of a season)
- Simply did not participate in the zone read game (likely due to injury)
I buy that an injury might have hurt his accuracy, but I can't fathom that it was the reason that in crucial moments of games he refused to pull the ball on zone reads. That's either a lack of cognition or toughness.
The effectiveness of the spread is in the name. You must be able to stretch the defense horizontally. All good spread teams rely on the QB run game to keep the defense stretched out in the numbers games. The only spread I can think of that worked without a mobile QB is Cardale, and he did it to his best and threw an amazing deep ball to compensate. Oh and some other talent around. Trevor Lawrence won the NC with his legs. Gattis had some gadgetry drawn up by the end of the season to compensate for Patterson, but it came at a cost.
That's why I think that with our running QB's if the OL can be good this year, the QB's don't even have to be significantly better with their arms than Patterson was last year. If they can even just match that low bar, the offense will be lethal. I'm a firm believer in Gattis and the skill position talent we have. We were gashing OSU for a good portion of that game and completely shot ourselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. QB's that can run will help the RB and HB run game hit more home runs, make the passing game easier, open up the screen game, keep drives moving, and will make a HUGE difference in the red zone.
Whether to keep or give on the zone read is a split-second decision, so I could see someone who is in serious pain making the wrong decision out of a subconscious desire for self-preservation. I could also see someone like that having their perspective of what is a give or take be influenced by their pain level. Finally, Shea also could have been coached to keep it more when he was injured
Regarding the QB run in general, I disagree that Cardale was not mobile. He wasn't a burner, but I remember him running over Alabama linebackers in the semifinals. He ended up adding about 40 yards on the ground in each of the playoff games when you include sacks. His legs weren't featured, but he was enough of a threat to ram the ball up the middle that he had to be respected.
The thing that gives me hope for the upcoming season (if it happens) is that Shea wasn't really doing anything magical late in the season when he was putting up great numbers. He was mostly hitting wide-open receivers who were getting YAC thanks to the scheme. It was more about comfort in the scheme than pinpoint accuracy. Hopefully either McCaffrey, Milton, or McNamara feels that level of comfort. If McCaffrey can hit those open passes and occasionally rip off a 40 yard run on an arc read keeper, look out.
What I picture when I hear there is an OSU fan named Kyle
.jpg)
I'd like to read this, but I won't patronize a site that employs people who think it's funny more people in Michigan died than in Ohio during a pandemic.
Agree with the premise that for the offense to become elite it has to come from the QB position playing at a very high level if not elite level. Milton/McCaff/McNamara one of them have to become an elite qb.
They have to make defenses pay with big plays on mistakes, open throwing or running lanes. They can’t make bad plays or turnovers. They can’t force the staff to rely on the run game due to their bad plays.
Second, our skill guys need to work on speed training. It’s great to get receivers open or rb’s to the second level. But they are not opening their stride and accelerating. To often I see chop or short steps instead of opening into their stride which is why they never pull away and take it to the end zone. DJP was capable of doing it but didn’t develop as a rec running great routes. I mostly think our best home run threat is Christian Turner at RB if he can hold the ball and pick up the blitz. Charbonnet and Haskins have to start extending their stride and accelerating.
QB, it’s been a while since we had a qb just pick defenses a part. Hit rec in stride and set up db’s. We just haven’t had it yet. Henne could have been that guy but we rarely opened up the offense for him and so much of the Lloyd Carr offense was run run pass on third down and expect the qb to bail out the offense. Navarre and Henne both were in that role.
Patterson, he really regressed as a qb and only got better when he realized he might lose his job. I really put this on his lack of off season work. He had the starting job and I don’t think he put in the time. I really wish Harbaugh would have went much more to McCaff last year earlier when it was clear Patterson was not running the offense well. McCaff or Milton to just get them experience if not see if they progress with live snaps.