247: Michigan in excellent CFP position heading into Wisconsin game

Submitted by Mr. Elbel on

http://247sports.com/Bolt/Michigan-in-excellent-CFP-position-heading-in…

Some great stats in this piece put out by 247 today. Really cool to see how we line up against the rest of the country on both sides of the ball. My favorite part:

"There are only three teams scoring more points per game than Michigan. No team has more sacks (17) or tackles for loss (44) than the Wolverines. Like Jabril Peppers, who leads the team with 332 all-purpose yards and is second with 33 tackles while leading the country with 23.7 yards per touch and with 9.5 tackles for loss, Michigan is dominating on both sides of the ball. It has an extremely tough game waiting at the end of the regular season against rival Ohio State. But arguably nobody is in a better position to earn a spot in the Playoff this year than Michigan."

Yes, week 5 caveats and such (also, beat Wisconsin...before anyone else says it). But it's great to see us at the top of so many categories of stats already and looking ahead, should we continue that trend on Saturday, in great position to have a really special season.

Farnn

September 29th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^

This is the same guy who had MIchigan ranked in the high 20s preseason and PSU a top 15 team.  I'm not sure what model he uses but I think it's broken.

poppinfresh

September 29th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^

will it help or hurt us? definitely feels like it helps wisco, as it impacts the throwing team and both teams have shady kicking at this point.

 

special teams and winning the lines will be paramount. 

JonnyHintz

September 29th, 2016 at 2:09 PM ^

A push most likely. Michigan's run defense is dominant. Add in no throwing ability from an already meh passing offense, and it looks even better. What it does do is hinders the Michigan offense. The bright side here? This game is going to be about field position. There will be punts-a-plenty, and with Peppers back there returning punts, you know that's a Michigan advantage. You either kick to him and let him bust it back for 20+ yards or you short kick it out of bounds and give Michigan the field position. Poor weather always sets up where special teams is key. Luckily, there aren't many special teams units on par with Michigan.

gjking

September 29th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^

Is there any hope for an 11-1 team that is not a conference champion? My sense is not because they favor conference champions in the committee process. For this reason, I don't think our odds are very good for the playoff... we have to play in Columbus against in my opinion the best team in College FB. 

 

Farnn

September 29th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^

Worse than the 11-1 would be the loss coming at the very end of the season.  The loser would definitely drop, but there would be no time to climb back up.  Only hope would be an extremely close game where Michigan gets credit for being within 1-2 points on the road.  Would likely need other conference champs to be 10-2 or worse as well, maybe an upset or two in other championship games.

mediocracy2

September 29th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^

They finished regular season play at 11-1 with their only loss being to MSU, who would ultimately play in the Playoffs. That set the precedent going forward - Highly unlikely that a 11-1 non-champion makes the playoff, even if they are clearly one of the best four teams in the country. The CFP committee could have made a real statement by including OSU and Stanford last year, but they chose to function as a glorified AP poll. 

Dan Man

September 29th, 2016 at 1:35 PM ^

I agree.  We obviously CAN beat OSU, but we'll be slight underdogs.  If we don't beat OSU, our only hope is either that OSU loses two games in conference so that we could still play for the B1G championship (highly improbable), or there is only one other conference champion with just one loss (beside an undefeated or one loss OSU).  Even in that second scenario, we would need the voters to go our way.

doggdetroit

September 29th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

It would depend on various factors. Are there multiple two loss P5 champs? Is Houston undefeated? I think a 1 loss Michigan could get in over a 1 loss Big 12 champ since there is no Big 12 title game. Even with a loss to OSU, Michigan will have notched a few quality wins (Wisconsin, MSU, Colorado) assuming those teams go on to have strong seasons. They would probably need Iowa to finish with 8-9 wins to give them a 4th quality win. It's not likely, but possible.

joeyb

September 29th, 2016 at 1:39 PM ^

All undefeated and 12-1 conference champs would go first. Then, you're competing with 10/11-2 conference champs and other 11-1 teams. You've got five power conferences, so you'd need two of them to have a champion with 2 losses. It's possible, but not likely.

Perkis-Size Me

September 29th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^

It depends, really. I'd say at this point the odds aren't good, but the BCS showed in 2011 it didn't care about conference championships. Traditions are made to be broken at some point.  

But yeah, there would have to be a lot that happened. Specifically: 

-Every SEC team, including the champion, finishes with at least two losses. With Alabama, you can probably already throw this one out the window. 

-No undefeated Group of Five teams. 

-No more than three undefeated Power 5 conference champions from other conferences. 

-Michigan would need to absolutely run train on everyone on its schedule, win by an average of 35-40 points, would also need OSU to run roughshod on everyone, and then we'd have to lose a very close, very evenly-matched nailbiter in Columbus that everyone and their mother admits could've gone either way. We would also need teams like MSU and Iowa to be highly ranked, or at least ranked, when we play them. 

-Some conference championship games would probably need to be sloppy games, where one playoff contender wins but just doesn't look any good doing it. 

A lot to happen, and I'm assuming only one, maybe two of those happening. So the answer to your question would be likely a negatory. 

CorkyCole

September 29th, 2016 at 1:39 PM ^

I'm just glad our competion outside MSU, Iowa and OSU is looking better. Although Iowa and MSU are looking much worse. Whatever, I'm fine with that.

This game against Wisconsin at home is huge. Colorado is now looking like a pretty great non-conference game.

I really don't think this early season could have worked out much better for Michigan's chances of making the playoffs. At first I was skeptical if a 1-loss Michigan team with only three tough games could make it. Now, however, I'm pretty sure they could and will due to other teams on the schedule stepping it up. Need to win the B1G championship, but it IS looking a lot better than pre-season.

MotownGoBlue

September 29th, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^

Jabrill is the most dangerous man on both sides of the line of scrimmage...in all phases of the game. Most importantly though, just win all the games (with character and cruelty).

mgowild

September 29th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^

But arguably nobody is in a better position to earn a spot in the Playoff this year than Michigan.


Except for that team we have to face to end the regular season... It appears both teams' playoff hopes rest on winning this game (assuming the winner will be a heavy favorite to win the B1G Championship game). We have to play in Columbus and OSU is favored, so I'd say they're in a (slightly) better position than we are.

After watching MSU and Iowa last week, I feel much better about our chances against those two. But let's throttle Wisconsin first.