22: # of 4 or 5 stars in the First Round of NFL Draft
Outside of the OSU-related kick in the nuts at the top of the draft...22 of the 32 first round picks were 4 or 5 star prospects coming out of high school.
7 from Texas and 3 from Florida, Georgia and Louisiana.
SEC had 15 guys selected (new record) 5 from the B1G and Big 12, the Pac-12 had 3, ACC had 2.
Also of note, LSU, Bama and yes...OSU were the only schools with at least 3 guys taken. Those schools had as much or more top end talent than 2 Power 5 conferences.
No point to prove (although I do hope we recruit better and stop taking guys that we could take at the end of a recruiting cycle)...just interesting looking at the numbers from this year. Which one year isn't going to tell you anything other than who was good last year.
10 first round picks were ranked three stars or below...impressive
Barton Simmons from 247sports tweeted that actually 26 of the 32 were a 4 or 5-star by at least one of the services.....and (of course) that 247 was the most accurate of the 3.
Pretty good hit ratio with only about 30 5-stars and 350 4-stars every year.
There are like 10x as many of those.
But carry on.
Again, no point to prove...just sharing the data. If it doesn't do anything for you, feel free to talk more COVID.
You absolutely are trying to prove a point. Lying about it doesn't give you street cred. lol
And it’s actually a very good point, so I’m not sure why the OP doesn’t just own it. michigan will continue to be out gunned if we don’t recruit more talented players. That’s just a fact. It doesn’t mean we can’t win games, but it sure makes it more difficult.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
Street cred? How does one get street cred on the internet? Do tell.
Michigan’s one first round dude definitely wasn’t a three star, so... who cares?
I think YG's comment was meant to simply say that it is impressive that 10 guys that were once regarded as outside of the top ~250 in their classes managed to improve their standing enough to be selected in the first round of the draft. Not sure why MaizeBlue and YPC needed to get defensive...
Before we get the guy that comes in and goes, "Well, 10 of them were three stars so stars don't matter, just coach'em up." Every year there are about 1,000 three stars or below in each recruiting cycle. On average it ends up that less than 1% of three stars become first rounders and 30%+ of five stars become first rounders. I know know four stars off the top of my head but I know the odds are much higher than the three stars. Stars matter.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
They absolutely do and no one with a brain is arguing against that.
There is additional context needed, though. The star ratings by ESPN/Rivals/24/7 are by and large markers of whether or not the player has the size/speed to make the pros. It is easy to give Jadaveon Clowney five stars--he couldn't possibly miss unless injury/effort issues. And the pros draft to a large degree on potential (again, size/speed matters) which is why DPJ will go before all sorts of guys with 1000 yd seasons. All Rivals had to do was see DPJ's broad jump as a 9th grader was the best in the nation to give him a 5-star.
What is missing in this discussion--which Seth and others try to do--is testing for the degree to which stars correlate with college-level performance (spolier--they still do, just to a lesser degree).
April 24th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
OSU, the team kicking our ass and the rest of the B1G on the regular puts a record number of players into the 1st round. OSU dominates us and other midwest schools in recruiting.
The SEC, the league generally considered the best conference top to bottom puts a record number of players into the 1st round. The SEC dominates the B1G 10 other leagues in recruiting.
I feel like our recruiting debates here on the future impact of 5 star players other teams are landing vs the "TRUST THE COACHES" under the radar players we're taking is like debating the existence of gravity.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
Nobody believes the “trust the coaches” stuff. It’s a positive spin on a recruit and there’s nothing we can do about it. Everybody wants 5 star players.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
The only people who are saying “trust the coaches” in any hello post are doing so in response to someone questioning why said recruit got an offer from us. So unless you want a post welcoming someone to the team to turn into a bunch of posters being dicks, then I guess pick if this is the hill you want to die on. Everybody wants 5 star recruits. This idea that shitting on a high school kids on the internet is ok because you're just keeping it real about recruiting needs to die a fiery death
April 24th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
Agreed but that's not what I'm referencing. I'm talking about the countless discussions here over the huge (and widening) gap between M & OSU specifically when it comes to our recruiting results as a whole.
There were several threads here when Spath, I believe, posted a pretty scathing review of our recruiting methodology, strategy and end results and the board was split pretty evenly in agreeing with his conclusions and attacking the source/defending the coaches.
I 100% agree a "hello" post should never include shitting on the recruit no matter how they are ranked. But I do think a discussion of our overall recruiting results as a whole is more than fair game. And that's where gravity is being debated IMO.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
OSU, the team kicking our ass and the rest of the B1G on the regular
I wouldn't go that far, but take my argument with a grain of salt as it's a bit of a strawman. Overall yes, but for example although they typically still beat PSU, they are hardly kicking their ass. Typically they are eeking out wins over them. And, Purdue is 2-2 in their last 4 against them including an OT loss.
The SEC, the league generally considered the best conference top to bottom puts a record number of players into the 1st round. The SEC dominates the B1G 10 other leagues in recruiting.
From top to bottom I'd agree, but that's selling the B1G a bit short. Bama & UGA are the top of the SEC with recruiting and are on the same plane with OSU. PSU & UM are in the second tier and are on the same plane with LSU & FLA. Wiscy is probably in the third tier and are probably similar to Aub. I'd bet if you got rid of the recruiting violations under tenures like Freeze the two conference compare fairly similarly, but the SEC does have the edge.
I feel like our recruiting debates here on the future impact of 5 star players other teams are landing vs the "TRUST THE COACHES" under the radar players we're taking is like debating the existence of gravity.
Yeah, I think we all trust the coaches. We just wish we could trust the coaches, while still getting a larger share of top 150 recruits. Instead we do trust the coaches evaluations, but probably only find these diamonds in the rough because we can't get the top 150 kids out of region with much consistency. It would be better to be able to have good evaluation, but within the context of the top recruits.
I don't ever want to play at Purdue or Iowa ever again.
Guess who we scheduled for homecoming in 2020....
Purdue? We haven’t lost there since Rich Rod
April 24th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Multiple things can be true at once:
1. Lower-ranked players can be coached up and emerge as dynamic contributors
2. Depending upon coaching up those players instead of high-end talent on a roster is a recipe to lose important games.
People tend to miss this: Certain 3-stars DO get "coached up," bloom late, etc. Michigan has gotten some good-to-excellent contributions from lower-ranked players.
But you're going to get isolated excellence and widespread meh performance from a given set of those players. These isolated 3-stars at the top of the draft aren't generally playing for dominant college teams that happen to be made up of coached-up 3-stars. They are isolated excellent players on teams whose performance level would be unacceptable at Michigan.
Let's take one at random: Jordyn Brooks, drafted 27th by the Seahawks. He was a 3-star out of Texas Tech, ranked in the 800s in the 24/7 composite. Coached up or a late bloomer, whatever. He is a first rounder, that's great!
He was a part of Texas Tech's 2016 class, which ranked 44th in the country, 6th in the Big 12. Texas Tech landed a total of 2 4-stars in that class.
Texas Tech finished the 2019 season 4-8.
Brooks is your classic example of a "coached up" 3-star. But that coaching up didn't do the team a lot of good, because the other 3-stars didn't become draftable players.
Michigan is actually pretty good at coaching up its 3-stars, at least on defense. We've gotten very good performances out of Kwity Paye, Khaleke Hudson, and others. They are quality Big Ten players. We've even seen some guys become elite enough to get drafted in mid-rounds, guys like the Glasgow boys.
The problem is that when you rely on 3-stars, you're going to have holes, especially against the elitest of elite teams. Coaching up 3-stars works if you get one or two guys playing at elite levels plugging into rosters of 4-and-5 star guys. It doesn't work if you've got a half-dozen sprinked onto the field, because one or two of them are going to be smart and hard-working and line up against a 5-star and simply not be able to compete physically.
Also of note, LSU, Bama and yes...OSU were the only schools with at least 3 guys taken. Those schools had as much or more top end talent than 2 Power 5 conferences.
Well, another way of looking at that is UM has as much talent as LSU, so they are only a QB away from a NC :)
See that is the thing about facts, they can be twisted to form whatever kind of narrative you want. Sometimes all you have to do is omit the ones that matter or only present 1 side of the story, the side that you're trying to push. It is this guy's biggest tactic when creating posts like these.
Thats probably not too wild of a statement.
I can only see UM challenging the big boys or even getting past OSU if they have a Heisman level, once in a decade type talent at QB.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
There is no question that our number 1 problem under Harbaugh is mediocre quarterback play. Almost every year, the four playoff teams have elite QB play in common. It doesn't even have to be a once-in-a-decade talent. It just has to be someone worthy of first round draft consideration. If you give us any one of the quarterbacks mentioned last night in the draft, you have a completely different Michigan season. We absolute would have won the bowl game against Bama with very good to elite QB play. This coming season we have a better overall roster and if Dylan can run Gattis' offense at an elite level we are in business. That is, if there is a season. But if Dylan struggles, it will be an overtime win against Indiana.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
You mentioned the mediocre QB play under JH and - IMHO - that has been the one really glaring problem which is a huge kick in the nuts considering that this was suppose to be a JH strength. We obviously won't win any championships until this is fixed
April 24th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
When Harbaugh got hired we were all thinking that it was like having an extra position coach since he was supposed to be some awesome de facto OC. Now he's basically a CEO head coach who's hoping a new OC can finally get something done.
It's a huge surprise to me.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^
All this is true, BUT no of it matters when the defense falls apart and gets bombed for 50 points against osu.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Eh, sometimes you have to get into shootouts to win. Bama won a national title against Clemson like that, and OSU under Urban won a bunch of games like that. If Michigan ever beats OSU again, it'll probably be some 65-64 type scoring marathon.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
If Michigan scores 40 points in ohio stadium, they should win that game. Especially when all we hear is Michigan has a top 5 defense
I'm curious when enough is enough with Michigan fans and this staff? 3 more losses to osu? 5? 8? John Cooper was fired because he couldn't beat Michigan, but Michigan fans are fine with 9-3 and beat downs to its biggest rival. Smh
I guess it depends on who you ask, who is available, and who is interested in the job. If you ask me, I'd like to see the AD have some hard conversations with JH and create some deadlines for beating OSU and/or winning a B1G title or moving on. I personally don't want to be the punchline for OSU fans for another 8 years. I don't see a Meyer, Saban, Dabo waiting in the wings, but I also think there are guys out there that could do better with the resources available at UM. It seems like the best candidates are Campbell or Fleck. While they sound intriguing they aren't home run hires. Who knows maybe a proven assistant like Gattis or Partridge could be a possibility with a few more years under their belts. But, it's hard to see UM firing JH going 9-3 even if he's losing to OSU every year.
April 25th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
So osu has high standards than Michigan
All this is true, BUT no of it matters when the defense falls apart and gets bombed for 50 points against osu.
I think without tracking each drive and how OSU scored those points that is difficult to assess. How many times do Patterson miss a read, miss a throw, throw an INT, fumble etc. that lead to a stalled drive and OSU getting the ball back and subsequently scoring. If instead those mistakes ended in UM scores it would limit the OSU's opportunities and give them less desirable field position while keeping UM's defense off the field.
There is validity to the concept of complimentary football. A part of Michigan's defense getting 60+ hung on it is that the offense did not do its part. Additionally, Michigan has lost too many games since Harbaugh arrived where the difference was simply getting one more first down. One.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
I can only see UM challenging the big boys or even getting past OSU if they have a Heisman level, once in a decade type talent at QB.
That would make sense looking at the teams vying for the NC the past several years. Although the top 8 single season QBRs of all time are all in the past decade, so it may not be a once in a decade type performance needed. I'm sure a Baker Mayfield type of season would do the trick, and his numbers have been passed three times already in just the past two seasons. But, you're right in that Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Winston, Newton, McCarron, Fromm, Baarrett, Haskins, Fields, Lawrence, Watson, Mayfield, Murray. etc. all put up impressive QBR numbers and all either won the Heisman or were a candidate. Patterson was UM's closest in 2018 under JH, but still a good 40 pts behind those other guys while also being way behind in attempts and production. But, if all of a sudden a UM QB can put up a QBR in the 180+ range a NC run in possible. But, they'd still have to get by OSU, Clemson, & Bama were also doing the same thing most years. It would probably guarantee a run, but a Burrow-level 200 QBR may be needed to actually win it all.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
According to many on here we've been a QB away from an NC every year since Harbaugh has been here. Especially the offseason 2018 before Patterson got here.
So you're telling me that approximately 1 out of every 3 picks in the first round was a 3 star? That is an unexpectedly large amount of 3 stars. Just goes to show that while rankings do matter, it appears 3 stars performed pretty well last year and that there really are "diamonds in the rough".
You just made a case AGAINST the narrative you're constantly pushing around here. Great job buddy! lol
Something something about ratios, percentages, proportions etc....
Sure would be nice then if Harbaugh & Co. would coach up their 3*'s into first-round draft picks. They were close this year with Uche.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
Kick in the nuts? Who even cares at a time like this?
April 24th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^
Oh, Good, more "Look at me!" from you.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Ha!
Indeed.
"I'm depressed except when it's cured and I'm not depressed. Oh, wait I'm depressed again -- so fuck you all you pearl clutchers and boomers".
Also, don't forget "I cannot see you because troll cave" -- but somehow Walmart Dropout knows we're making comments despite trollcave.
I think I got all his current bullshit correct?!
April 24th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
I’m just trying to survive and stay healthy like the rest of rational adults. Who cares about trivial shit like sports at a time like this? We don’t even know when we’re gonna get football back.
But seeing as it’s you who made this comment, I’m not surprised. ?
April 24th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
Yes, we all know that getting more 5-stars will win more games. We know that 5-stars correlate well to elite performance. We all want Michigan to sign more 5-stars. None of us know what happens behind the scenes from Michigan's perspective or from that of the recruits. Commence arguing about it I guess.
Other thoughts I had watching the draft:
- The distribution of talent between OSU and UM in the draft correlates to the overall narrative. Both schools are likely to produce about 7-10 draft picks this weekend. OSU had 4 (counting Burrow) in the first round, Michigan had one. Most of OSU's will go in the first half of the draft, most of Michigan's in the second half. We're developing and producing NFL talent....but OSU is out-producing just every other school besides Alabama and maybe Clemson.
- The Burrow story is hard to ignore. If a generational QB like that landed at any of the teams outside of the elite (OSU, Bama, Clemson) would you see the same result that LSU had? LSU has been recruiting well, but they've been a little like Michigan in their inability to get over the hump in the SEC. Burrow fixed that. Would he have done the same for Michigan? Penn State? Auburn? Texas? USC? Washington? Florida? Wisconsin?
- This draft shows what a hill Michigan has to climb. Even if they doubled their number of top-100 recruits they would still be far behind OSU. Michigan needs to make a TON of progress in recruiting to be sure, but even that isn't going to be enough with the situation OSU finds itself in right now. Daunting...need that star QB to emerge and get a couple of breaks somewhere.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
I believe the only thing that propels Michigan to the next level is Gattis and Gattis alone. Harbaugh had four years with his offense and it failed to produce the results we needed on the field. Additionally, the QB play under Harbaugh has been "Blah" at best. Completely underwhelming in today's college game.
So Harbaugh is banking on Gattis to implement his Speed In Space style of play. Year 1 had some successes but was generally against lesser teams. It failed mightily against Wisconsin, OSU and Bama. Gattis has to elevate the QB play for his offense to work. Shea, for whatever reason, failed to get in sync and looked hesitant. Hopefully (fingers crossed) the back-ups learned a lot and can elevate their play.
Once Speed In Space takes off, Harbaugh & Co. should be able to lock up some top in talent to the roster and be able to compete with the upper echelon of the College Football world. This offense has to be successful throughout the course of the season. It can not continue to flounder around again defenses with a pulse and can not mentally quit when something bad happens. We know of a few instances when that happened.
Gattis is the key to Michigan's success, not Harbaugh.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^
Too bad the defensive recruiting has fallen off a cliff. QB has been mediocre under Harbaugh, but the real issue is how uneven the team is.
There seems to always be a glaring and easily exploited deficiency somewhere.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
Once again not 1 word in that post about the defense. Why Don Brown still gets a pass around here is insane.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
I don't believe the fanbase is excusing Don Brown one single bit. The man is consistently criticized for his defensive performance against OSU and the flawed position groups in his defenses. He is relentlessly chastised for his recruiting and his love affair with the NE, which he should be.
With that being said, Don Brown and his defenses have shown up far more consistently than Michigan's offenses over the last four years. How many games have the defenses had to bail out the offense because of the lack of scoring or turnovers in negative territory? Love should be given to Don because, without him, Michigan probably doesn't win those close games.
Don has things he needs to fix, but he's generally been more of an asset to this program than a liability.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
The last 2 losses to osu fall completely on don brown, not the offense
April 24th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
The loss to PSU prior to the last one was a COMPLETE clusterfuck on defense as well.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
I don't know if you can say the offense wasn't responsible for last year's performance against. It was 14-14 when Shea fumbled and then all hell broke out. The WR's acted like they've never caught a football before. You're not going to beat OSU too many times by scoring 14 points. But yes, OSU began exserting their will on Don Brown's defense and he literally had no answers. Once again, Don's flawed depth and recruiting came to light in that game. Too small. Too slow. Too outmatched across the board.