2023 preseason expectations SEC
There’s one conference no one is talking about right now. They must be laying in the weeds, waiting to attack their prey when least suspected. Everything’s crazy quiet in SEC land these days.
See first comment for image.
Georgia, of course, is the clear frontrunner for the East, with Tennessee the only legitimate contender. (Is Tennessee even a legitimate contender?) No others are among the top 25. It’s odd to see Kentucky & USC (NTUSC) ahead of Florida.
The West shows an expected battle of Bama vs. LSU & fammlee. They play each other Nov 4. Alabama plays a crossover game with Tennessee but not Georgia. LSU crossovers with neither. The rest of the West looks to be a battle of anybody-can-beat-anybody.
Boasting 3 of the top 6 is B1G-like. That the expected bottom teams in the West rank no worse than #33 is un-B1G-like. The SEC has only 1 team ranked past #46; the B1G has 6.
SEC has 12 teams among the top 37, 6 of them are logjammed in the 10 spots from 24 to 33.
We need a few of the SEC’s second-tier teams (ranked in the ~20s-30s) to knock off a top team (GA, ALA, LSU), otherwise SEC scheduling permits an easy path to getting two teams in the final 4-team CFP. The SEC’s top 3 teams are guaranteed only two combined losses from directly playing one another; the B1G’s top 3 are guaranteed three combined losses from head-to-head matchups.
Prior threads:
Would like to see a side-by-side with the newly reconfigured B1G. And a quick crunch of the combined average rankings of each conference, newest additions incorporated. This looks like it could be a bit of an off year for the SEC, but I'd bet--after a glance at your table showing we cherry-picked the right portion of the Pac 12--we're right their with the SEC.
And I need to reiterate just how strictly regional and southren the SEC looks in comparison, how national in reach and scope the B1G really is/would be with an FSU and (say) North Carolina, etc. on board. Get that ish done, is my feeling. Have two ten-team conferences with two guaranteed rivalries, and revolve the OOC teams enough to keep the public interested in the matchups. Call us the National American League, or something that unsubtly underlines the shape of the new B1G and snidely refer to them as the Southern Conference. That would be fun!
The Big 10/18 is not close to the SEC. There's only 1 way we can close the gap and that's to win.
This isn't something we can debate our way out of.
Michigan can help close the gap by winning the natty this year.
So I wonder aloud about preseason rank of SEC teams v the B1G based on the above polls and you assert that the B1G "is not close" based on. . .? I don't find your response satisfying.
For the SEC, back of the envelope, I get an average preseason ranking, based on the above, of ca. 25. I'm assuming we're building up to a post about the B1G, because neither the OP nor Chuck (above) have posted such analysis for our conference; I don't know where to retrieve these numbers, else I would try it. Meanwhile, it's interesting to note that the four new entries from the former Pac12 have an average preseason rank of 13. We'll have M, OSU, and PSU in the top 5 to yoink up our average, with (I see) Iowa at 21 and Wisconsin in the top 25 in at least one early poll.
My hunch is that (again) we might not be too far off; or could even surprise meeshagin. Add FSU and Clemson (one goal of expansion, people lobbying day in and day out may forget, is to make the B1G STRONGER) and I'll bet we are right there with them.
Let's confer again shortly!
EDIT: Okay, did this on the fly and will re-do tonight, but I get an SEC average of 25, a B1G average of 40 as the conference now stands; of 34 with the four new former P12 members; and 32 if we added FSU and Clemson. Northwestern (88), Rutgers (78), and Indiana (projected at 80th in Chuck's combined rankings) are all a serious drag on this conference!
Georgia should run away with their division. Tennessee had their shot last year with a better QB.
LSU will be a better team than Alabama this year even though Alabama may finish ahead of LSU in SEC standings due to homefield advantage for the matchup..
Alabama recruiting > LSU
Saban >>>> Kelly
Any given Saturday
August 7th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
If Saban is better than Kelly, what happened last year? Seriously, Saban is a really good coach. But to be honest when all things are equal talent wise, it's not like he dominates then. He's 50/50 when all things are equal. He has had the run of top talent for over a decade and not just top talent, he's had it by a wide margin even in the sec. He's had so much talent and system down that it's made a ton of meh coaches look far better than they really are. He's only mad now that NIL took his massive advantage away from him.
Lsu beats bama again....
I just wanna see Joe Milton throw the ball over them there Smokey Mountains.
He might step out of bounds on 4th & long before he gets a chance to.
Hopefully his brain has caught up to his body - he has all the physical tools to be a gamer.
I think he'll crush it in that system but it'll end there. It won't transfer to the league and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he started hot only to look like he's never played the game around week 3.
August 7th, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
UTs offense consists of holding triangle after every play and snapping the ball before the defense gets set. Thats where they had a ton of success last year.
Smoky…
Joe Milton or Uncle Rico?
Going off what you posted Chuck, with a semi surprising prediction, Colin Cowherd said he believes it will be Michigan vs LSU for the national championship this year.
I know Michigan needs to get over the jump of winning a bowl game/semi final but LSU making the title game would be a huge jump for Brian Kelly and crew.
That sure would be a huge bounce back for the LSU program. They'll have to beat Georgia to do it. (Unless Cowherd is expecting Michigan to beat Georgia in the semis.)
Georgia's first loss is as devastating as the Lions first pre season loss. They are on permanent mulligan status with Bama and OSU.
Well, if Cowherd said it that's never going to happen.
I do not want a Michigan - LSU matchup in the CFP. My wife and many of her fay-muh-lee are LSU grads and/or fans. If it does happen I better get a marriage counselor on speed dial.
LSU has the opening game hurdle of FSU. That game's going to reverberate, short term, b c if FSU looks good their stock will rise, and if they get pummeled lots of people will be tickled to rib 'em.
Favorable SEC in-conference scheduling. Are the RNG gods spinning their numbers, or perhaps part of a grand plan.
Gotta imagine Billy Napier's seat gets pretty hot if UF finishes 5th in that division. FSU has a top 5 recruiting class right now, and Norvell can sell actual winning. Napier did land Chiles, but how many commits are still there in December if that comes to pass? It doesn't help that Napier and his staff squandered a 1st round quarterback.
Might be the weakest Bama team in a while. Tells you everything about their QB situation that they had to bring in Tyler Buchner, who was terrible at Notre Dame, after spring.
So how far off is that 4th place overall ranking?
Lol, Bama brought in nine five-star and 18 four-star players for 2023, three five-star and 21 four-star players in 2022, and seven five-star and 18 four-star players in 2021. I feel so bad for their weak roster.
Yeah Bamas qb situation is a bit down compared to pervious years. But Saban stockpiled so much 5 star talent that they’ll be there in the end. I’m rooting for Milton but see Tennessee crashing back to reality. I could care less about the sec honestly. They were NIL kings before it had a name.
Respectfully, I’m a bit disappointed in your comment. “NIL kings before it had a name”… My fellow Michigan fan, it was known as “brown bagging”. You know that, and most SEC schools had a graduate degree program in how to do it correctly.
Is the Tennessee hype deserved? Joe Milton played waaaay better than expected in their bowl game, yes. But how is he going to be game to game?
I've noticed Vol fans expect their squad to be title contenders this year. I think it would be kind of great to see them immediately go back to dumpster fire after one season. I wish Milton the best but I've hated Tennessee for so long. Yes, I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.
That’s a good question. Minnesota Milton crowned us national champions….and then
I think it would be kind of great to see them immediately go back to dumpster fire after one season.
I'd first love for them to beat Georgia, and then they can go to the dumpster.
Georgias gonna be really good again. Replacing Bennet is a tall order. That kid was a straight up gamer and didn’t get enough credit for what he did there. I’m sure they’ll be fine but I do expect them to take a step back in that dept, at least I hope
FWIW - Georgia is game number 11 on their schedule! Vanderbilt would be their only remaining "go into the dumpster" option.
Their schedule is interesting. They should definitely start 2-0: then it's at Florida. UF hasn't been their usual selfs lately, but still, Tennessee has lost 9 straight games in Gainesville. If they get by UF, there's no reason they couldn't (or shouldn't) be 6-0 for the Alabama game, and 9-1 at worse and playing for the East title for that Georgia game.
But they first need to win in the Swamp. They finally got by their "Alabama problem" last year, now they gotta get by their "Swamp problem."
Vanderbilt would be their only remaining "go into the dumpster" option.
Now that would be extra special. Please let it happen.
August 7th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
That Alabama game was a fluke win for Tennessee. 52 points with a last second FG right after Alabama missed their FG. I think the tide embarrasses UT this year.
Milton can EAD if his alleged comments on his way out of A2 are true.
I’m not a Brian Kelly fan, but - to his credit - he can coach - and knows offense.
Bama has his former OC - and, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers defeated the Tide this season. They’ll meet in Tuscaloosa on November 4th.
August 7th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
LSU beat Alabama last season. Game was at LSU and it ended in OT if I remember correctly. We'll see if LSU is the real deal this year but they have to win at Florida State and Alabama.
This could very well blow up on me but I can see USC (here in Carolina it's the only USC) being a surprise team this year. I don't think they can beat Georgia but I could certainly see them playing the Tennessee role this year. Their schedule is favorable as well without LSU or Alabama on their schedule. If they can win most of their games against UNC, Georgia, Tennessee and Clemson they could finish 2nd in the east. But personally I hope they stumble out of the gate and never get any steam going. They are the Sparty of the SEC.
Don't sleep on Vanderbilt. We're going bowling!
Alabama has to replace a QB, much of the line, an OC, a DC, and is coming off a "disappointing" 11 win season. So naturally they'll win it all this year.
Make no mistake, bama and LSU can play awful football all season, scrape together multiple desperation wins against mediocre opponents, get bailed out of well deserved losses by refs, and still get 1st place votes.
The SEC. It just means more.*
*Unless it's a loss. Then it don't mean shit.
Well stated
August 6th, 2023 at 10:11 PM ^
Georgia is probably going to be pretty good, and either LSU or Alabama are going to win the west. I am actually not sold on LSU but if Alabama really doesn't have a viable offense without Young then LSU has the inside track. But the gulf between those 3 teams and everyone else in the SEC is pretty stark. I'm not remotely buying Tennessee this year especially without Hooker at QB and all those WRs gone, and their defense isn't likely to take a massive jump forward. Ole Miss is going to score a lot of points against bad teams, not stop anyone, and get worked over by anyone good while Kiffin is looking for a job somewhere better. Maybe A&M figure it out a bit; they were 2-5 in 1-score games last year so you assume some regression back. But at the same time they found ways to lose to mediocre-to-bad teams (Auburn, App St., Florida) and this year they go to Miami, Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU. It could get ugly for them pretty quickly.
I've long complained that the SEC benefits from the internally-inconsistent good loss/good win paradigm, where every time one SEC team beats the other it's a good win for the victor and a good loss for the loser. It's a feedback loop that insulates, say, Ole Miss and Auburn from being considered mediocre-to-bad because they just trade wins. Case in point - Ole Miss went 8-5 last year and the only win of note was beating Troy to start the year, a legitimately good Sun Belt team. But beyond that their SEC wins were 3 over 7-6 Kentucky, 24 over 5-7 Vandy, 14 over Auburn as they were firing their HC, and by 3 over A&M. They were a thoroughly mediocre outfit who closed the year losing 5 of 6...and were still ranked until they lose to Miss St. to end the year.
So yeah, the SEC will be pretty top-heavy this year and while I'm sure some team will put up a fight outside of the Georgia/Alabama tier I presume one or both of those teams will be in the playoffs and the media will basically ignore everyone else when touting how amazing the conference is.
This is one of the reasons I'm looking forward to a 12-team playoff. Every conference has their share of overhyped teams, but the SEC always has more for the reasons you mentioned. Eventually these teams will be exposed and hopefully people will stop their ridiculous claims that I hear all the time, such as "even the third best team in the SEC is better than the #1 B1G team" etc. Moreover, they won't have the excuse that they just didn't care about a worthless bowl game, like we heard when Auburn lost to UCF in 2018. Every game will matter in a playoff.
For similar reasons, I would also like to see some sort of a B1G-SEC challenge in, say, the 2nd week of the season. Match up the previous year's 1v1, 2v2, etc (by ranking, not division records; Purdue should not be playing LSU/Bama). I know it would be hard to take an L that early in the season, but if a team like Michigan were to lose a close game against 'Bama or LSU, then it probably wouldn't hurt too much in the long run.
August 7th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Every conference has their share of overhyped teams, but the SEC always has more for the reasons you mentioned.
Other conferences have overhyped teams, but the SEC is an overhyped conference.
I know it would be hard to take an L that early in the season, but if a team like Michigan were to lose a close game against 'Bama or LSU, then it probably wouldn't hurt too much in the long run.
ESPN: Auburn's close loss to Bama or LSU - "That's a good loss for Auburn." Michigan's close loss to Bama or LSU - "That's a bad loss for Michigan."
Yeah I think Bama East takes this shit again this year. Will tune in for the Tennessee game but probably not much else.
That LSU vs. FSU game is going to be interesting.
That's one I'm really interested in too. Last year's game turned out to be a barn burner. The stakes are much higher for both teams this year.