2023 preseason expectations G5 conferences (non-MAC)
This is the first of a series of posts regarding the preseason expectations of all FBS teams based on four lists that rank all 133 teams. We’ll examine the rankings on a per conference basis, starting with the G5 conferences, and then work our way through the P5, concluding with the Big Ten.
I wanted to emphasize subjective lists, and not computer rankings, to examine primarily human expectations for the upcoming season. I used the 1-133 rankings provided by:
- CBS Sports
- College Football News – the recurring trend you may notice from CFN is an obvious P5 bias…they’re harsh to G5 leaders but overly kind to the slugs of P5.
- Athlon
- Versus Sports Simulator – has an objective component to the rankings, but its purpose is for handicapping, so I included it on the basis that if there’s anybody who makes sure they’re not gonna get screwed it’s the experts in the desert.
The four lists are brought to an average, and then all 133 teams are ranked based on the averages.
We’ll start with the G5 conferences, but since the MAC shares a portion of the footprint of the B1G and might resonate with extra significance for some, we’ll give the MAC its own thread.
See comments for analysis…
AMERICAN – Sure looks weak at the top with Cincinnati, UCF & Houston all gone. Tulane & UTSA are the expected frontrunners. Looks like a new version of Conference USA. Michigan’s opponent ECU is perceived to be a top-half-of-the-conference team.
Would you consider putting this into a diary?
But nobody reads a diary. ;-p
...I could if I'm able to get the images inserted in the body. Ya know...hooray MGoTechnology!
August 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 PM ^
Images go in the body pretty much the same way they go in the comments. There's the "folder-looking" icon next to the quotation marks 
then you click "Upload"; choose "Add File" and find the image where it's saved: hit "Select"
and in they go.
META alert. Not disputing the process you depicted because it is accurate. HOWEVA, you are limited to the file size, and once you reach your "memory limit" you can't upload anything regardless the file size. AND, you can't delete anything because it's being used is some other magical JPEG sucking application.
You'll know because you see this:
Where would Charlotte be without all the transfers who followed Poggi there?
August 3rd, 2023 at 10:43 PM ^
Given this year's atrocious home schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if Warde Manual didn't just reach out to Charlotte to schedule a game.
As a Navy fan (former Lt. on a destroyer) I’m really excited to see how the Middies do with a new coach. About the only good thing going for them in the last three years of Coach Ken was defense, and that DC is now the head coach. OC brings a shotgun spread and shed variation of the triple option, so hopefully that side is better with tons of returning experience.
If they can give Notre Dame a run for its money in the opener, I think Navy will shoot up this list.
August 4th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Suggestion to include metric based rankings and Vegas win totals to see where the computers and humans disagree.
CONFERENCE USA – Western Kentucky & Liberty are expected to be at the top, followed by a pile of slop. Looks a bit like a new version of an FCS conference.
MOUNTAIN WEST – Boise St is the expected frontrunner, with a trio of top contenders. Michigan's opponent UNLV looks to be a bottom-half-of-the-conference team.
For Air Force it all depends on how good the replacement for their QB from last year, Haaziq Daniels, is. From everything I am reading, I'm....not optimistic based on how I saw the backups play last year.
Brad Roberts was a great fullback, but Air Force always finds a way to have someone decent in the backfield and can shift emphasis to another position as well.
August 4th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
For Air Force and Navy, QB always seems like the biggest x-factor (Army just plows ahead 3 yards at a time, so less impactful).
For Navy, they've had Malcolm Perry and Keenan Reynolds lead to top-20 finishes. For Air Force, three double-digit win years in the last four behind Daniels and Donald Hammond.
August 4th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
Defense is historically even more of an X-Factor, but Air Force has seemingly figured that out recently. Consistent system that they have certain physical attributes they plug into those spots and ensure a strong spine. It's been pleasantly consistent the past few years.
It's weird to not have confidence at QB as I have been used to the Tim Jefferson - Nate Romine - Arion Worthman - Donald Hammond - Haaziq Daniels line that was, if not uniformly excellent, at least reliable.
For sure. All the academies seem to have rugged linebackers and secondaries that can keep teams in front of them. DL is the obvious limiting factor, but all three academies have had salty defenses the last few years.
Jealous of you guys as a Navy fan. The last three years of quarterbacking has been brutal.
SUN BELT – Troy & So. Alabama are the top-two ranked teams in the conference, both in the West. The next four ranked teams are all in the East.
August 3rd, 2023 at 10:59 PM ^
I don't get underselling James Madison by CFN. They made a huge leap up last year from FCS and still won (hell they were ranked in the top 25 for a bit), and Coastal has a new HC as Chadwell left. I don't think JMU can play for a conference title this year as well due to stupid NCAA rules barring schools from competing for titles when they move up divisions, but they'd give South Alabama or Troy a game.
August 3rd, 2023 at 11:31 PM ^
I don't think JMU can play for a conference title this year as well due to stupid NCAA rules barring schools from competing for titles when they move up divisions
Could someone explain the logic of this rule to me? The first time I heard about it was for JMU last year. Why are schools and athletes effectively punished for moving up a division?
August 4th, 2023 at 12:20 AM ^
Back in the day, FBS (D-1A) athletes could transfer to a FCS (D-1AA) school without missing any years of eligibility, while intra-FBS moves required sitting out a year.
Randy Moss/Marshall showed an unintentional consequence of this. Moss originally signed with ND, had to sit out 1995 after transferring to FSU, he got dismissed from FSU, so he went to FCS Marshall and played right away in 1996.
Marshall then moved up to FBS in 1997 and ....... look at this magic ...... in their first FBS year they are border-line Top 25 and easily win the MAC, led by a Heisman Trophy finalist.
After that: lower-tier FBS schools rallied for this rule, as they didn't want any other FCS schools stacking their teams with FBS transfers immediately prior to moving up. It was viewed as an unfair advantage. Even though transfer rules have changed in the years since, the rule has stuck around --- now it's more like a "hey, pay your dues for a few years, rookie!" type rule.
Today I learned even more about the soap opera that is Randy Moss. Notre Dame? Florida State? Wild, wacky stuff...
It was an insane story and part of the reason he slipped down to pick #18 in the draft.
INDEPENDENTS – UMass was unanimously selected as the worst team in FBS. How ‘bout dem apples?!?
Gotta love “Good Will Hunting”.. but, in his case - it was MIT, not U Mass…
Was just going for the accent theme.
August 3rd, 2023 at 10:49 PM ^
Nomah hit a homah
You seem wicked smaht
August 4th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
"You gaht the Pahts game on? What station is the Pahts game?"
"One oh foh one."
/inside joke
That's some nerdy shit right there. +1
Now I gotta go see about a girl.
i hate ohio state but you’re alright chuck
August 3rd, 2023 at 11:12 PM ^
Plus 1. I’ve met quite a few good Buckeyes over the years. I even stayed overnight before the 2016 game (wearing a Michigan onesie of course).
you are among the good ones Chuck.
I agree. Chuck is exemplary as a frienemy poster and a good dude.
TOP G5 TEAMS – With some of the best programs in the AAC going to the Big XII, it’s a bit of slim pickins for the top ranked G5 team. Only one team is ranked in the top 40 (Tulane 30), and only 4 others in the top 60 (UTSA 42, Boise St 43, Troy 55, Air Force 58). Might not be a great year for the best G5 champion come time for NY6 bids.
Damn. Biff Poggi's got some work to do at Charlotte.
...would you say a lotte of work
The weakness of the G5 schools post UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati moving to the Big 12 reinforces the idea that the realignment that is currently happening is just promotion and relegation by another name.
Except none of the P5 teams will be relegated to the G5.
Do you think Wazzu and Oregon State find a P5 conference if the Pac falls apart?
Even if it doesn't, even if the Pac survives in some form by picking up (let's say) SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and UNLV, would that version of the Pac REALLY be P5 in any meaningful sense anymore? I'd argue that's effectively a relegation for Oregon State and Wazzu.
For a lot of teams across several conferences, the additions / subtractions of conference realignment are a resignation to obscurity. For example, as it is, there are several teams in our own conference that - barring the bizarre - will likely never, ever win it. If you add several more teams that are historically better than they are (I am thinking of, say, the Indianas and Rutgers of the world compared to a program like USC, for reference), then you are building a future for them which ensures...well, nothing but the payout from the media deal. Maybe that's enough for some, but then maybe it is not.
That's not meant to be an indictment of realignment, but I could see it as a side effect.
It's certainly going to be part of the future. If you're Indiana or Maryland, I think the reason you stick around is for that big football payout, and then re-invest that money in basketball (since those fanbases are more basketball-oriented anyway). It sucks for your football program to be a punching-bag cash cow, but that's the price you're going to pay in order to buy the best one-and-done b-ball players going forward.
At least, I'd assume that's their thought process. Self-relegating to a conference where IU or Maryland football could realistically compete would also torpedo their basketball programs.
If Washington and Oregon leave for Big Ten, in my opinion PAC essentially becomes a Group of 5 (6) conference.
August 3rd, 2023 at 10:51 PM ^
All this talk about P5 has me thinking about P-Funk
The sun belt should continue to be the best G5 conference and keep shockin the world with more upsets