We should keep Don Brown. He has done as well against OSU as anyone else has.
In the aftermath of Saturday's loss, a ton of discussion has understandably centered around Don Brown and our defense.
Some common critiques I've seen of Don Brown:
- Giving up 62 or 56 points is a lot worse than what previous DCs did against OSU.
- ANY good DC should be able to limit OSU to maybe 35 or 40 points or so and then we'd have a chance. It shouldn't be hard to find someone who can at least do that.
- Don Brown is too aggressive... a more conservative bend but don't break approach might keep OSU in check a lot more.
Anyway, a lot of talk made me think of Michigan's 3 games against OSU before Don Brown got here, especially the 2015 game.
Were 2018 and 2019 worse defensive performances than 2015, 2014, and 2013?
People are understandably frustrated because never before have we given up point totals like 62 or 56 points to anyone. I think people look at that 2015 game when we gave up 42 and think, "I would take that." Give up 42 and you've got a shot. 56? 62? That's a tough ask. I understand that perspective. I think a lot of people would say that in 2015, Durkin at least gave us a chance, but in 2018 and '19 our offense was left with the almost impossible task of needing to score 55 or 62.
Here's the thing, though. The 2015 game was played at a slower pace than yesterday's game or last year's game. It took Ohio State only 7 possessions to reach 42 points in 2015. At that point, the score was 42-13 and there were 2 minutes left in the game. Michigan would've had to score 42 points in 7 possessions to keep pace.
Our defense on Saturday didn't fair a lot better than that 2015 group did, but after 9 possessions, OSU had 42 points. For Michigan to score 42 points in 9 possessions still would've been tough, but there's still no question that our offense has a better chance at winning if it has to score 42 points in 9 possessions than if it has to do the same in 7 possessions. I think it's a narrative on this board that our D gave us no chance at winning on Saturday, whereas previous defenses had better games against OSU that gave us a more realistic chance at winning. However, this year's D still left the offense with a more manageable task than the 2015 group did.
And let's be honest, one OSU drive got prolonged by an offsides on a punt which has nothing to do with Don Brown. Take that out and OSU would've had 35 points in its first 9 possessions. Okay, I'm leaving out the garbage time possessions that took OSU from 42 to 56, but the TD that took OSU from 42 to 49 was after we went for it on 4th down at our own 28 and got stopped. Their next TD drive came on a short field as well.
Last year, Don Brown's defense got blown up by Ohio State as well. But we allowed 27 points in Ohio States first 8 drives. That's less than 3.5 points per drive and it definitely gives you a chance to be right in the game. What happened next? OSU blocked a punt for a TD. Then, on our next drive, we threw a pick, Ohio State started at our 22 and punched it in, and the game was done. Even so, even if you count the short field TD as a defensive letdown, it took Ohio State 10 offensive possessions to score their first 41 offensive points.
I am not at all trying to argue that Don Brown has had good games the last two years against OSU. But, it is false, IMO, that the defense the last two years gave our team a worse chance at winning than our defense in... say... 2015.
Recent defensive performances against Ohio State (pre-garbage time):
2019 - Don Brown - OSU 42 points in 9 possessions (would've been 35 without the offsides on a punt)
2018 - Don Brown - OSU 41 points in 10 possessions (27 in first 8, 9th drive was a 22-yard TD after an INT)
2017 - Don Brown - OSU 31 points in 12 possessions
2016 - Don Brown - OSU 10 points in 12 possessions (the TD came on a 13 yard drive)
2015 - DJ Durkin - OSU 42 points in 7 possessions
2014 - Greg Mattison - OSU 35 points in 9 possessions
2013 - Greg Mattison - OSU 42 points in 11 possessions (including one lost fumble by OSU)
What are the only drives I left out? In 2015, OSU punted once with 2 minutes left and the score 42-13. And in 2018 and 2019, OSU got 2 late TDs each year after things were out of hand. Of those 4 late TDs, 3 of the 4 drives started in Michigan territory and 2 of the 4 started at our 28 and 13 and with the team already emotionally defeated. I also didn't include OT from 2016 because that's hard to compare to drives in regulation for a myriad of reasons.
Basically, while OSU has generated more total points the last two years than in previous Michigan - OSU games, it's hard to argue that Brown's defense has left Michigan with a worse chance to win than in previous match-ups.
It is actually pretty clear that Michigan's D gave the team a better chance at winning in 2018 and 2019 than in 2015. The 2014 and 2013 defensive performances were pretty similar to the last two years, but there were less total drives for each team in those games, and we didn't have short field TDs and blocked punts inflating OSU's final score.
Were our last two defensive performances significantly worse than what Mattison and Durkin managed? They really weren't. And that's not even accounting for the fact that OSU has probably been better on offense that last two years than some of those other teams were.
Can Michigan find a DC who would do a better job against Ohio State?
As already explained above, I really don't think that Durkin or Mattison gave us a better chance at beating OSU the years they allowed 42 than Don Brown has the last two years. And people on this board act like Don Brown shouldn't get any credit for our good defensive performances in 2016 and 2017.
Aside from all that, people act like it would be easy to find a replacement who could improve upon Don Brown's recent performances. Do people remember how acclaimed Mattison and Durkin were when we hired them? Both guys were considered huge hires. Greg Mattison left the Ravens to come here. DJ Durkin was a top college DC who had been successful at Florida, and people were very excited to have him. If we were to replace Don Brown, we might be able to bring in someone with similar credentials to what Mattison and Durkin had when we hired them, but finding anyone with significantly better credentials would be a real stretch. The best you can hope for is to bring in someone with the credentials of someone like Durkin, Mattison, or Don Brown, and Don Brown is the only one of the 3 that's managed to have a credible performance against OSU since they got up and running under Meyer. Brown has gone 2/4 against OSU. You could say that Mattison went 2/4 during his time here, but the first passing grade was giving up 34 to a 6-6 Luke Fickell team with OSU's QB missing multiple wide open TDs. The next one was Meyer's first year. Durkin went 0/1 and it was the worst defensive performance by any defense we've had against OSU from 2011-present.
I just really can't think of anyone out there whose credentials are better than Mattison's were in 2011, Durkin's were in 2015, and Brown's were in 2016. So why do people think it will be easy to find someone who will be better than Don Brown?
Should Michigan take a more conservative approach on D?
First off, I'm not an expert at football strategy. I will say this, though: Every DC we ever had here before Don Brown got criticized for not being aggressive enough. Just the idea of using a "bend but don't break" defense infuriated a lot of fans.
I will say this, DJ Durkin's approach in 2015 sounds a lot like what people hoping for a less-agressive approach promoting. Yes, Durkin did like physical cornerback play, but he loved to keep his safeties deep and not let teams create big plays. His philosophy was to let the d-line and linebackers worry about the running game without moving the safeties up into the box, and if you could run the ball, you'd have a chance at moving the ball down the field gradually. But he did not want to allow big plays.
Well, just like we saw this year, when your defensive line is better than the opposing offensive line, there are a lot of defensive strategies that will work extremely well. Michigan shut out 3 teams in a row in the middle part of the year. Glasgow got hurt and we started to show some chinks in the armor - namely against Indiana. When we finally played OSU, our defensive line was over-matched and it turns out that a bend-but-don't-break defense doesn't work all that well when your opponent is dominating the line of scrimmage. And let's be real, even without Glasgow, I'd take Hurst, Willie Henry, and Chris Wormley in the middle over a rotation of Kemp, Dwumfour, and Hinton (as a true frosh) any day of the week. At the end of the day, that defense gave up 6 TDs in 7 drives and we had no chance at winning.
There are other points in favor of Don Brown that I've mentioned in other threads. Alabama has the most talented roster in the country and gave up 48 and 46 points in their two biggest games this year. And that's with Saban - who is supposed to be a great defensive coach. I think there's a lot of truth to the defense - espoused by many on this board, including myself - that if you are really over-matched at the line of scrimmage there's not a lot that the DC can do. That sure turned out to be the case in 2015. But my post wasn't about those points.
The two main points of my post are the following:
1. Ohio State scored more total points the last two years because there were more total possessions in each game, but our defense did not give us a worse chance at winning than in previous Michigan-OSU games of this decade.
2. People act like any good DC will do better than Don Brown, but his 2 predecessors came in with great credentials and they could not do a better job against OSU than he has done. I'd argue that both guys actually did a worse job against Ohio State.
I obviously hope we keep Don Brown.
This was too long to proofread so I apologize for any typos.
Go Blue!
December 4th, 2019 at 9:36 PM ^
Don Brown is one of the best defensive guys in college football. Love Don Brown. Mattison fucked us in DL recruiting. Should have dumped his lazy ass sooner.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
The good teams know how to scheme against his defense. If a team has a good offensive line, you know most of the time you will just have man coverage. An athletic and fast WR will not have any problems getting under an arm punt on his way to the endzone. I was at the game and was very disappointed in the defense. This year was even worse than last year, since we gave up way too many yards on the ground. Brown does good job against the teams with low talent on the OL, where his scheme of pressure works against those middling QBs. I'm not sure what to do with him and would kind of like him to take a HC job somewhere. I think OSU will probably score 50 + points on his defense next season in Columbus. He does not have a game plan to stop offenses like OSU and at times PSU (on the road).
December 5th, 2019 at 6:31 PM ^
Main 2 things that burned us were losing the Inside Contain on runs, and the Crossing passing routes again. I think the Def Ends got to set the edge better on the run and not go IN. While on the passes the CBs have to stay on their side and not attempt to cross!
December 8th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
Wisconsin played OSU twice this year and held them well below 56 both times. With no better talent than we have. Penn State held them to 28 this year and 27 last year.
Your opening claim is demonstrably wrong. The rest is just a long-winded attempt to hide that with cherry-picked statistics.
December 8th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
WRONG. Fire him.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
111 Points in two games vs ohio is an embarrassment. Beyond that, quit looking at just those two games look at 4 years of Don Brown. He is completely responsible for the defensive roster that has left the Dline short of elite talent needed to win the game. His dt's got ran over by wisconsin and ohio, got embarrased beyond belief several times now in his tenure.
Zero Coverage still allows a total mismatch with elite speed receivers in the slot covered by a slower safety. Still doesn't add levels to his defenders so they don't get crossed over. Still doesn't shade coverage at the los when manned up to the safety help. Still doesn't hit the crossing rec when they are purposefully blocking. Doesn't jam either of inside receivers that have been blocking with a clear out to the defender of the crossing route. Has rarely gone to the man zone / banjo concepts and when they do they are handing over the rec to lbers instead of safeties..
Smaller / quicker, that's fine in the Back 7, that is not fine on the dline in this conference or trying to go against elite teams should by some miracle he gets it right against ohio, wins the big ten and makes the CFP. We're about to find out again! For the 3rd time this season his defense is going to get ran over and give up 200yds to a rb when he faces Bama. And watch, Metellus will be lined up over Ruggs, Jeudy, Waddle or Smith and give up two td's, maybe 3!
Speaking of last year, he sat Ambry Thomas all last season instead of having him ready to play. The fastest corner on the team watched on the sidelines as 3 ohio rec running 4.3 40's were lighting up our back 7.. Speaking of players sat, not getting Solomon on the field when he recovered from his injury led to his transfer, he wanted to play and they sat him to preserve a rs, for tennessee! BTW, they just ticked off Josh Ross's family by sitting him the rest of this season to do the same thing, preserve a rs and have a couple more seasons which he likely won't stay for!
Time to move on from Don Brown, period. The coverage issues started against Colorado and never got fixed. He is tied to his scheme like there is no other way. Won't meet with other dc's or nfl dc's to figure this out. Harbaugh hasn't held him accountable and just listens to the "Nobody is going to tell me not to be aggressive". BS, nobody said don't be aggressive, we're saying, fix your crap or get out.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
111 Points in two games vs ohio is an embarrassment. Beyond that, quit looking at just those two games look at 4 years of Don Brown. He is completely responsible for the defensive roster that has left the Dline short of elite talent needed to win the game. His dt's got ran over by wisconsin and ohio, got embarrased beyond belief several times now in his tenure.
Zero Coverage still allows a total mismatch with elite speed receivers in the slot covered by a slower safety. Still doesn't add levels to his defenders so they don't get crossed over. Still doesn't shade coverage at the los when manned up to the safety help. Still doesn't hit the crossing rec when they are purposefully blocking. Doesn't jam either of inside receivers that have been blocking with a clear out to the defender of the crossing route. Has rarely gone to the man zone / banjo concepts and when they do they are handing over the rec to lbers instead of safeties..
Smaller / quicker, that's fine in the Back 7, that is not fine on the dline in this conference or trying to go against elite teams should by some miracle he gets it right against ohio, wins the big ten and makes the CFP. We're about to find out again! For the 3rd time this season his defense is going to get ran over and give up 200yds to a rb when he faces Bama. And watch, Metellus will be lined up over Ruggs, Jeudy, Waddle or Smith and give up two td's, maybe 3!
Speaking of last year, he sat Ambry Thomas all last season instead of having him ready to play. The fastest corner on the team watched on the sidelines as 3 ohio rec running 4.3 40's were lighting up our back 7.. Speaking of players sat, not getting Solomon on the field when he recovered from his injury led to his transfer, he wanted to play and they sat him to preserve a rs, for tennessee! BTW, they just ticked off Josh Ross's family by sitting him the rest of this season to do the same thing, preserve a rs and have a couple more seasons which he likely won't stay for!
Time to move on from Don Brown, period. The coverage issues started against Colorado and never got fixed. He is tied to his scheme like there is no other way. Won't meet with other dc's or nfl dc's to figure this out. Harbaugh hasn't held him accountable and just listens to the "Nobody is going to tell me not to be aggressive". BS, nobody said don't be aggressive, we're saying, fix your crap or get out.
December 9th, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^
We hope you keep Harbaugh and Brown forever... much like you used to wish we kept John Cooper...
December 9th, 2019 at 7:52 PM ^
Just thinking about this...Brown did...quite well against OSU when he had Brady Hoke's personnel working his defensive schemes (2016 and 2017)...and maybe that's the route he needs to go...recruiting B10 level personnel to beat Ohio State
December 9th, 2019 at 9:05 PM ^
I totally disagree with the point of your post. I appreciate that you like Don Brown. I don't know if we should keep or move along without coach Brown. But the mindset that he has done as good as anybody makes no sense to me. I think you have to identify what is considered "good enough" and move on from there.
Last year he had an inflexible system that put his players in poor positions to make plays. They were more athletic, and yet we still man pressed and they were able to get behind us and get across our DB's on crossing routes. That was poor prep and gameplanning. This year we had undersized DT's and the result was that the opposition ran all over us. That is on Brown because he recruited poorly on a position in his realm of influence. The last issue I have that we may never know about is about our freshmen Defensive players. It didn't not seem that they were considered important to get on the field this season, or they would have played meaningful snaps earlier in the year. I understand that you may want to prepare them for the future by redshirting them. But the blowout to Wisconsin should have changed the defense to looking for anyone that can contribute this year.
What really confuses me with the underclassmen is Cam McGrone. How he wasn't on field from the beginning of the season makes me believe that meritocracy isn't practiced by the Defense. There is no way with the way he played that the coaches didn't see his talent and upside in preseason practices. It makes me wonder if maybe Smith or Hinton were ready or not.
Again, I don't know if Don Brown should be let go or not, but I do know that the blame is squarely on his and JH shoulders. And no, I am not willing to say that going into a game against our rival and getting run off the field will ever be acceptable. This coaching staff needs to gameplan, recruit and prepare with the intention of beating the best teams in our Conference (OSU)
December 10th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Thanks for this - it provided a nice anecdote to the conventional armchair quarterbacking on this topic even if I do not agree with it in toto.
I think it really comes down to speed and talent as the primary sources of getting poleaxed every year regardless of scheme tinkering. Michigan has the talent to beat everyone except tOSU in a mano-e-mano scenario and the scheme may be part of the reason some deficiencies in athletic ability were masked. Add-in that our offense cannot play complimentary football given the need to score at a premium against an all-world defense, talent-wise.
To wit, I love Glasgow but there's a reason you don't have walk-on starters at tOSU: They don't have room for them, we do. Again, not to disparage Glasgow - that starting spot was earned and he beat some guy with a couple more stars than him to play. But, that is the symptomatic crucible I'm talking about. We are not evens on the field with them, by a long shot.
To our credit, neither is anyone else in the conference, but I think we perceive ourselves, vis-a-vis the Rivalry, a bit differently.
I ain't mad. It's just where things are. Okay, I'm mad. But I do not think some major scheme retooling beats the Bucks - even with Harb's really, really good classes, they're a notch below the Death Star, Columbus.
December 11th, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
Rutger DC did a better job in last two years. Maybe we should hire him/her
December 12th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
My 2 cents is the team is preforming well enough that I trust the leadership. The results against OSU are deeply frustrating, but OSU is really good right now, and we're just going to need a little luck to close the recruiting gap, either OSU will need to stumble or M needs to get a lucky win.
It's frustrating to be in a holding pattern, but I think major shake ups are likely to make M worse, not better.
December 14th, 2019 at 12:14 AM ^
All that it seems that you proved is that Don Brown has consistently gotten worse each year in allowing OSU to score more points before garbage time. He needs to go.
December 15th, 2019 at 2:07 AM ^
Here's my issue with Don Brown, and fans want to talk strictly about OSU. This may be an unpopular opinion, but I thought his defensive strategy or lack thereof against PSU is ultimately why they lost that game. What did we as fans hear about after the '17 game in Happy Valley? How it gave Donnie nightmares and blah blah....So what does he do the next time we play them in Happy Valley? The same foolish thing, putting a safety on Hamler with no bump off the line, or putting safeties in general on slot recievers. PSU is a one trick pony this year, there is no excuse for letting Hamler or #5 blow by the defense way they did. Now some of you are going to say well the defense settled down and only gave up 7 in the 2nd half or whatever it was. The game was lost when you go down 21-0. There is NO excuse for not jamming Handler or the other slot reciever at the line and then putting a safety over the top. Don Brown should have known this because it's EXACTLY what PSU did to his defense in 2017. I won't even get into the Wisconsin game, another doozy of a game for his defense. I know the D-line is thin, that doesn't excuse guys not setting the edge. I thought Hudson was awful all year long quite frankly. To the original poster, comparing how Mattison faired and Durkin against OSU is great and all...But let's just look at the improvement OSU made just in the first year with Mattison. Yes, I know they had Hafley or whatever his name is as well. The bottom line is, I wouldn't have had a problem if Harbaugh fired Brown after the Florida game last season and gave Mattison the reigns. Not long term, but to me I don't think Mattison would put his safeties in positions to FAIL like Donnie did on more than one occasion, not to mention Mattison carries more weight with recruiting.
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