The Trouble with Transfers - Portal Issues
Mates,
Michigan has been the benefactor of what seems like a wealth of excellent news via the Transfer Portal this weekend. It feels very much like recruiting wins, but even better because your transfers-in are much more college-ready and college-proven kids. But is there a cost to the Transfer Portal?
Two+ years ago when Tuck was 'comin', he hit the portal and recruited over a bunch of the players he was inheriting in EL, and he also happened to stumble on a lottery ticket (KW III). But we rightly carped at him that he was likely going to pay a price in the locker room, and that is poor morale of the kids who get pushed down on the depth chart as you drop someone over them from the top.
On the front page Alex had this to say about the likely effect of the Nugent (NTN) transfer: "You have to assume one [Crippen and Anderson] will stay to duke it out with Nugent and then possibly get the job in 2024, but the likelihood that both stay after signing Nugent does not appear to be high to your author." And that is the problem.
When you go through traditional recruiting cycles you are almost in a modern version of courting. You coo, you laugh, you fawn attention, you tell mom and dad how special their son is and how you will love them and develop them at your school. And in the natural order of things you can see your son as a freshman learning their trade, biding their time, working in the weight room. They get some snaps maybe in garbage time or on special teams by their sophomore year, but they can eye that depth chart and think - next year, that'll be my year. That is, until it isn't because some darling you've never heard of from another school comes in and pushes you down the depth chart. And then you have the potential for poison in your locker room. Frustration, feelings of betrayal, or just general depression about 'I'm never going to get my shot'.
So the questions are these:
1. How much, if any, of a price do you pay with your existing team when you recruit 'over' them via the portal?
2. While it appears this is truly the new normal, do you think it would be healthy to have a philosophical limit on the number or nature of players (e.g., fairly sure they'll be a starter) a team should take in any given year?
3. For us fans, do we evaluate these transfers objectively, or are we more of a 'we don't care, we just want to win any legal way we can' attitude? Are we properly valuing the possible poison in the locker room?
XM
December 18th, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^
Thanks for the post, I understand your concerns. My thoughts
1) comparing Michigan/Harbaugh to MSU/Tuck is ridiculous. Alabama brought in 2 starters as transfers this season, with no impact to recruiting. Not saying we are Alabama, but I don’t think it hurts top programs.
2) this is the current reality. Bringing in a few 4-7ish transfers that are starter ready is what top programs should do. So I agree with a philosophical limit. 24 transfers sends a bad message.
3) you run the risk of portal/NFL attrition every year. Sure, you might lose some “almost ready” players, but the assumption is you are bringing in higher level talent.
4). Players will still come to Michigan for development. And leave if the feel they could start elsewhere.
5) I am assuming that player character is being taken into consideration for transfers and recruits locker rooms change annually at the college level, by design
December 18th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^
i was not comparing us to sparty, merely pointing out the issues that sparty faced/faces with big transfer classes. this is more of a general discussion about possible downsides.
December 19th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
We'll obviously have to wait and see but I think my vibes at the moment demand the same approach as the annual roster over analysis:
All personnel gain is good personnel gain, all personnel loss is good personnel loss.
December 19th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
I was merely addressing your second paragraph, but I see my point appears to call you out. My apologies. My point is that what Mel did his first year was such an outlier. And perhaps added to the already TOXIC MSU environment. What MSU did was like throwing U-235 on a fusion reactor.
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
Fission
December 21st, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
I see the possible downside 100% and I really do see the points you bring up in your post.
My question is this.
If incoming players are clearly better isnt Harbaugh doing his job? Isnt that his top priority? We are going to have 85ish players on scholarship are you, and the players, saying please bring in talent that is comfortably below us? If you add 8 transfers to 75+ players should the 75+ be worried? Its filling out the roster with the best available and it is his DUTY. The exception bringing in maybe people of low character for whatever that means. A proven FBS talent probably has a better work ethic than your average high school recruit. At minimum the person you bring in should be no better or worse of a potential teammate than anyone you brought in from high school.
I dont think Ill ever understand the Frankie Collins butt-hurt transfer. You are actually telling a coach to not maximize the talent on his roster?
December 21st, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
Scholarship counts don't matter anymore.
December 21st, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
If I was to call out an exception, it would be this: I would NOT want Harbaugh to bring in a transfer QB that is expecting to start over JJ (or had a better year on paper than JJ).
This is unlikely, but when you have a starter, that went 12-0, has shown excellence, and still has upside, I would not want to throw that away for a chance at a heisman/runner up QB.
Cade got passed by a recruit 2 years behind him, so different circumstance. Plus Cade was never going to be a potential Heisman candidate. JJ might/could be.
December 21st, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
13-0, first time in program history!!!
December 23rd, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
I really agree with that last point. It seems to me, if you say yes to Juwan Howard and Michigan, that you do so with the knowledge that Coach is working to improve the roster, at all positions and with no exceptions, at every opportunity that he has to do so.
December 18th, 2022 at 7:33 PM ^
I think that navigating thru these new waters maybe very different for every school. Each staff may handle this in completely different manners, each student could react very different. In other words I don't think we will know until we know. I have to hope that the coaches find the right balance and keep the toxicity out of the locker room.
December 18th, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
XM,
As I recall, you've gone through the recruiting process with a son (sons). Everything has a cost, and don't some of those you identify here apply roughly the same to recruiting?
BV
December 18th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
have gone through this with sons and daughters. i do think some of the issues would show themselves in regular recruiting, but the difference i would cite is when you sign that NCAA letter of intent for 4 yrs, it is a bit like a marriage ceremony, but you know the playing field of who else is vying for the coaches' affections, if the analogy fits. suddenly outsiders show up and it changes the landscape in a way that is both unpredictable and will likely be unpleasant for kids who have been there a year or more.
December 19th, 2022 at 7:15 AM ^
I too feel empathy for the guys that are already there, the ones who were expecting to step up the ladder and take starting roles, only to have some new guy, who started for 2 years at some lesser program, step in and pass them on the depth chart.
I recognize that every kid is told going in that there's annual competition for jobs. But I also recognize that we're only human and that, when we work hard toward a goal, our mind creates expectations about how and when this work is going to pay off. Sure, those expectations ought to be realistic and ought to be tempered by the reality that there's always competition for playing time. But when you work hard and your expectations aren't met, it still hurts.
And, it looks to me that the potential for disappointment is going to be greater when the coaching staff, who has been preaching to you that hard work pays off, is seen as actively trying to get someone who is almost certainly going to take your job. Imagine working a sales job and hearing that your boss is trying to hire some hot-shot who will be given a bunch of the leads that you'd otherwise be getting.
Yes, the annual addition of a new recruiting class creates that same unpredictability for the kids who are already there. I should know that there's a possibility that if I'm a sophomore CB and the university lands Charles Woodson Jr, I am probably going to not be a starter. It takes maturity to accept that though.
However, the coaching staff is going to have to make it crystal clear that the annual competition for jobs includes guys who might come in through the portal as well as those who come in via traditional recruiting. But, yes, disappointments will be inevitable.
December 19th, 2022 at 7:52 AM ^
you hit the nail on the head. as i've thought about this, i think it makes a huge difference how any given coaching staff communicates the when/where/how possibilities of transfers-in to their existing players, and i think if you are taking in lots of transfers you are going to impact a team's culture.
one of the probably very underappreciated reasons that michigan is winning is that harbaugh has done an incredible job of not just recruiting athletes, but also recruiting high-character kids that truly buy in to the team culture and bond with one another. that's the reason we've kicked the snot out of ohio these last two games. michigan is the equivalent of a dude in a camry beating a guy driving his vette in a road race.
December 19th, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
In addition, there is reason to believe that Harbaugh is open/honest/transparent, as much as reasonably possible, about playing time being a meritocracy. That goes a long way towards building trust in this day and age. For better or worse, kids grow up quickly now and they are aware that pie in the sky promises about playing time aren't worth the digital paper they aren't printed on. What the kids and their parents want is an open and honest discussion of how the program works so they can assess the chances of the kid succeeding if he goes there.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
I have the same concerns but those are general concerns for all programs. However, Michigan is in a unique situation and, consequently, has unique concerns. Michigan is successfully competing with the great powers of the college football world even though Michigan has a harder time recruiting the best talent. (For whatever reason: academic requirements, NIL, …)
Harbaugh readily admits (is proud of the fact) that they have a great team culture that allows them to defeat schools with higher recruiting classes. If recruiting over guys that have come up in the system results in a conveyor of the incoming people only spending a year or two in the system and the guys that came up in the system leaving after a couple years, it will certainly result in degradation of that great team spirit and chemistry. And even the level of the feeling of being part of the Michigan team/tradition. Keegan, Bell and others said the problem with the terrible 2020 team was that too many guys were only concerned with their NFL prospects.
December 22nd, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Merritocracy!
Harbaugh seems to be very consistent regarding "best players will play". I don't think any of the transfers are assured a starting spot, or even playing time. Everyone is offered an opportunity to improve and to compete.
December 19th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
"but you know the playing field of who else is vying for the coaches' affections"
Until new freshman show up.
Coaches are always trying to recruit over you - I just don't see a big difference whether they're recruiting a HS kid to replace you, or a college kid.
December 19th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
I was thinking the same thing. At every point in your life, you are the best until you aren't. College is usually a time that everyone finds this out, when most kids go from being a big fish in a small pond to being dropped in the ocean with all the other big fish. You learn quickly how things work out. And the idea of transfers coming in should be no different than a 5 star following you in the door. Some kids thrive under pressure and some whine as they walk out the door. Harbaugh seems to have managed the expectations and has developed a winning culture, so I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt here
December 18th, 2022 at 8:07 PM ^
The comments on brotherhood and how players in 19 and 20 were more about themselves than the team (the team, the team!!) makes me think the culture is set and players get it. Also, winning patches over a lot of issues.
Those who stay (and transfer in) will be champions!
December 18th, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Considering both crippen and Anderson are both the same year, and that one will likely have a noticeable leg up on the other, one of them was probably going to transfer anyways. Kinda sucks but thats the way it was probably always going to be. After next year the one who is ahead will have two more years and will probably come into 2024 as an all b1g favorite and maybe more.
December 19th, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^
I've got it. Just pay Olu NFL wages like Bama/Georgia/Clemson has for years and promise him a coaching staff position so he never leaves. Years of eligibility is just another rule of the NCAA to be flaunted and ignored.
December 18th, 2022 at 8:13 PM ^
It's too early to tell. The portal is a work in progress, and I do not see the downside to always be portalling if I were a player. A coach would encourage their players to seek their best opportunities as well, and it gives options all the way around. The P5 are transitioning to Semi-Pro leagues.
Why not check the waters if I felt recruited over or challenged? You don't commit until you transfer. If I could start at Penn State or USC, I would like to know which option exists.
Transfering is not easy, so you don't want to do it yearly, but options are options. A sports agent, personal coach, or parent could vet these options in some capacity for the player if they didn't have time.
Once this normalizes (in 2-5 years??) The impacts on any team are not huge. Each season will be its team. Right now, it is unsettling. Players are dealing with lives, relationships, classes, and workouts. The Portal season is long and a distraction, but only because it is new. The players are in a power position, which is what most fans want. The coaches and ADs didn't want this system.
There are no rules needed until this plays out.
Fans have to sit back. But CFB should be on notice. I at least follow Michigan, my alma mater, not a Semi-Pro team. I also don't mind sports betting - another dynamic of fandom that has come about recently. At some point, my breed of fandom isn't going to follow their team for the same reasons, if at all. I enjoy watching the players develop, and the portal takes that away a bit.
December 19th, 2022 at 12:16 AM ^
The downside for the player is likely in the quality of education. Most won’t be going pro, and NFL careers are brutally short.
December 19th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
For 1:100 (conservatively) there are life long health issues as well.
I'm not sure the quality of education is hurt. These athletes still attend. Few classes meaningfully span multiple semesters and the ones that do are stand alone (thinking of the Math and Science at least.)
December 19th, 2022 at 7:25 AM ^
If I'm not mistaken, you only get one transfer without having to sit a year. Otherwise, you need a waiver or else you lose a year. I don't think that there will be that many kids transferring year after year.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/ncaa/article/2022-08-31/ncaa-division-i-board-adopts-changes-transfer-rules
December 19th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Thanks, I get lost in the rules vs. reality.
What was the exception for Okie? An Oregon TE just got a 9th year granted. Reggie Bush taunted Emmert on the way out (despite a supposed non-disclosure.) Rules don't seem to mean much.
I will check out this link. Good to know what was suppose to happen.
In five years I can see yearly reshuffling of players. The bottom line is going to come down to players not wanting to transfer (due to school and relationships.) Any player that wants to, will be able.
Thanks again for this link.
December 19th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Okie spent a year at FCS. That counts as sitting out from FBS competition. No waiver necessary.
December 19th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
I think he was a grad transfer, which eliminates the sitting out part, rather than the fact that he was a transfer from FBS.
December 18th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
Excellent questions and legitimate morale concerns.
A corporate analogy is junior execs working their tails off to climb the ladder only to learn that their new boss, replacing their old boss, is a new hire from outside. It can range from awkward to insidious hostility.
We all know the awkardness that JH sometimes creates with his "all competition, all the time" philosophy? This is something he and the coaches will have to manage *very* carefully. Enlarge the pool of high quality players, elevating the quality of play while dashing a young man's dreams.
Were I asked to vote? I would say, yes, bring in talent (think Oluwatimi). Let's go for the trophy(ies) every year. Just try not to be heartless jerks while doing so.
Limits on numbers? I'd need to think about that.
Edit/add: Not all transfers displace existing players, think Bowman. So? Coaches? Let's cherry pick carefully.
December 18th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
Business/corporate forum is an excellent analogy. And I think that emotions would be very similar.
And I don’t mean actual hard numbers, just more of a philosophy of keep the numbers low and truly target areas where you’ve got real depth problems or you can pick up a superstar.
December 18th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
"...truly target areas where you’ve got real depth problems or you can pick up a superstar".
Works! Where do I sign? 👍👍
December 19th, 2022 at 7:30 AM ^
I agree with you 100%. That being said, it would still be very disappointing to be a soon-to-be starter at a position that is considered to have "depth problems" sufficient for the coaches to go out and bring in some new guy to take your starting job.
December 18th, 2022 at 9:07 PM ^
“Cherry pick carefully” sums it up perfectly.
December 18th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
“Fur” whatever reason the title of this post made me think of the famous Star Trek episode “The Trouble with Tribbles.”
December 18th, 2022 at 10:01 PM ^
Glad somebody noticed
December 18th, 2022 at 10:53 PM ^
They certainly are popping up like crazy.
December 19th, 2022 at 5:54 AM ^
that old star trek episode is the genesis of it. and they don't look very tasty...
December 19th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
They taste like chicken, only less nervous.
December 21st, 2022 at 2:36 AM ^
They have the appearance of oversize hater-tots.
December 21st, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
Actually the concept was stolen from an old Heinlein book from the early fifties called The Rolling Stones. The critters in the book were little fur balls called martian flat cats.
December 19th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
Great catch. That is my all time favorite Star Trek episode, across all series.
“Scottie, where are the tribbles?”
December 18th, 2022 at 10:13 PM ^
Thanks for the post. Speaking strictly for myself, I have come to the conclusion that just like many other things it will have to sort itself out. I'm sure that teams will come out the winner in some instances, and the loser in others. I can't help but wonder what it's doing for the athletes, are any of them going to be playing school in the future?
December 18th, 2022 at 10:15 PM ^
Related question -- how does approach to recruiting the portal impact approach for recruiting high school?
If you strike out on top high school targets, you might be more likely to go after low floor, high ceiling high school players as long as you are confident you can recruit from the portal if/when players don't develop as hoped for.
Can't help but wonder if Harbaugh & co. are taking this approach.
December 18th, 2022 at 10:46 PM ^
It could also raise the bar for HS players. Michigan may want to keep scholarships available for physically/mentally more mature college players that go into the portal after spring practice, e.g. Eyabi Okie & Jake Rudock. An experienced college player in hand is more valuable than two low floor, high ceiling HS players in the bush. Coaches are evaluated/paid on what their teams do now, not what their teams can potentially do 2-3 years in the future. As George Allen used to say, "The future is now".
December 19th, 2022 at 7:46 AM ^
George Allen said a lot of other things too...oh, wait, that was his son.
December 18th, 2022 at 10:26 PM ^
This is a great post and echoes many things I have wondered/been worried about as well.
The thing that keeps me positive (lessens my concern) is that I'm sure the coaches (JH and the position coaches) are completely open with all the players, the ones already on the team and the ones transferring in, about where they currently stand and/or why they are being brought in from the portal. Everyone that plays for Harbaugh knows they will have to compete to earn and keep their jobs. So Crippen/Anderson/Nugent will all have the same opportunity. I don't think anyone should have hurt feelings after being beat out in an honest competition. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't, though. 🤷♂️
December 18th, 2022 at 11:04 PM ^
on the sons' college teams the depth chart is posted and updated daily. practices are graded just like you'd think of PFF for games.
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