Some Thoughts on the First Game and a "See You Later"
Hey yall, rough night last obviously. I will probably refrain from visiting the board for a while. Michigan Football fan internet in general is going to be negative for my taste for the next few weeks, which is predictable after an opening loss. The joke all offseason was obviously that the overreactions following this game would be insane, and boy, has that been true. So, I figured I'd give my takes and say see you all down the road some.
I actually didn't walk away from last night feeling bad about the season. I think we got hit in the mouth by a very solid Notre Dame team (who I certainly underestimated offensively) for the first quarter, and then, despite outplaying them the rest of the way, didn't have enough to comeback. We ended up out-gaining Notre Dame and out-possessing them as well. We held them to 69 (nice) yards of offense in the second half - after getting worked for a quarter, the defense was solid. Small consolations, but the game ended fairly even despite falling on our face out the gate. In the end, penalties and turnovers made our deficit insurmountable. Certainly can't lose both the turnover and penalty battle on the road against a top 15 team. The OL didn't hold up well in pass pro, DPJ had a bad night in the punt return game, and clock management was pretty bad in the 4th quarter. Those were our main failures outside of the penalties.
Many, including myself compared this game to Florida last year going into it. Turns out it was more Utah in 2015. A good opponent in a true road game while we are breaking in a new QB and some new offensive things as well. In both the Utah game and the ND game, we ended up out-gaining the opponent, out-possessing the opponent, but lost the turnover battle, and lost 24-17. Utah went on to have a really good year, and they were even ranked #1 in the polls at one point. Let's see what Notre Dame does. I was down on them because of the guys they lost on offense, but their OL doesn't look to have fallen off too much (they couldn't stop Gary and Winovich from getting the edge but not many can), their WRs and TE are still good, and they have sufficient RBs with Wimbush to have an adequate ground game until Williams comes back from suspension. My prediction for them pre-season was 8-4, but after seeing them play I think that's a team that will win 10 or 11 games. They get Stanford at home, and it's hard to say what Virginia Tech and USC will be by the time Notre Dame plays each of them on the road.
As for us, I think there were a good amount of positives. For one, Patterson is the real deal. He's incredibly smooth, he's really accurate especially on the rollout, and his legs are such plus, despite not getting to use them a ton last night. We would have lost this game 31-7 with any QB we had playing last year. His final stat line was good-ish. The INT is not great (though there was a flag thrown at the snap and I'm not sure that he didn't think it was a free play), but 67% completion, 227 yards, and 7.6 ypa against what was the 7th S&P Passing Defense last year is fairly solid. Obviously if he could have balanced the INT with a touchdown, then you're talking about winning the game. The main negative of Patterson's performance last night was the negative sack yardage, something we knew came with the territory with Shea. He ran us out of field goal range once. Don't know if we would have made the FG, but you can't have that on the road against a top team. Higdon ran very well. That's a very good front seven, and he regularly got downhill, made smart cuts, and picked up first downs. The receivers looked pretty good on first watch, as well. I think there's certainly been improvement there. Perry catches everything, Nico is ready to be a starter, and DPJ was dependable. Good group to pair with a great TE unit (who really needed more catches last night). Then, as mentioned before, the defense was mostly outstanding after a horrible first quarter. 69 yards and 3 points in the second half. Gary and Winovich blew by their men all night long, possibly even too fast at times. The defense is fine, and I think the offense will become fine over the next three games which all feature opponents that have never even heard of playing dorfense.
So, yeah. My take is to stay calm, and reserve judgment for down the line. This team will be 5-1 going into the Wisconsin game. This season won't ultimately be defined by the Notre Dame game, but the three game stretch of Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State. With Wisconsin at home and MSU and PSU getting torched by group of five offenses this week, nobody should be trembling in their boots for those games. I saw nothing yesterday to say that, if this team improves week to week, we can't win those three games. If you told us that we would lose Metellus for the whole game, Devin Bush for large chunks, and Patterson for large chunks of the second half, nearly all of this board would have predicted a close loss anyways. Writing this was mostly just cathartic for me - I'm obviously not going to walk anyone who thinks Harbaugh is trash and Michigan should scrap the program away from the ledge - so, if you read all this, go outside, spend time with family, do something other than wallow today, you psychopath. I'll see you after we string some easy wins together and the moods change.
P.S. Fuck Braylon Edwards. Honestly. What a drunk, washed up, bitter dickhead.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
I find this overly optimistic, but it's nice to read something positive, too.
Excellent P.S. Also, enjoy your time away. I appreciate your contributions to the board.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
Cheers - always enjoy your posts, and this was no exception.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
Good take. I’m on the same page. Was there last night and upon re-watching at home this morning to get some better looks, I saw a lot to be optimistic about.
Lets take care of business the next few weeks and this can still be a great year. Go Blue!
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
Also, hope you don't ghost the board for too long, but that's just, like, my opinion man.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Won't stay away for too long - can't help it. Just need enough time to let everyone calm down. I have a busy few weeks ahead of me anyways, and I don't want something that's a distraction and negative, so it's a good time to step away for beat. Let's beat up on some lesser teams and allow everyone to compose themselves.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:11 AM ^
The next couple weeks should be a good time to be on the board. You probably should stay away the week of WI, PSU, @ MSU and @ OSU and may be even @NU.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
"Won't stay away for too long - can't help it. Just need enough time to let everyone calm down. I have a busy few weeks ahead of me anyways, and I don't want something that's a distraction and negative, so it's a good time to step away for beat. Let's beat up on some lesser teams and allow everyone to compose themselves."
You have a very condescending view of those who are critical of the program as being overly emotional- many of us are very calmly pointing out serious issues in the program.
It would be helpful for you to be less superior to those you disagree with- just stick to facts
September 5th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^
I stayed away until today (Wednesday) for just that reason.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Not that it matters but Utah was never the #1 ranked team in any major poll at any point in 2015. They reached #3 in the AP Poll and #7 in the Coaches' before getting shelled by USC.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
Good catch, my mistake. Can't edit diaries, or else I'd fix the litany of typos as well.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:38 PM ^
No worries, man. I appreciate your optimism and unique perspective and hope you are back soon.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
I think one of the reasons I am so disappointed is that I *don't* think that ND's offense is better than we thought
I thought we got outcoached and they caught a couple lucky breaks. We played right into their only strengths on offense - QB scrambling and chucking up long balls
They shredded us because we came out too aggressive and ran by Wimbush. We broke contain so many times
Gil should have had an easy sack but came in out of control. Gary and Winovich got too far upfield countless times
Hawkins should have had an INT on the touchdown pass, he played it perfectly and then inexplicably shorted his jump/let the ball go through his hands
Outside of those tactical mistakes we made and failure to make a couple plays we were in position for, ND couldn't get jack shit going on offense.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
All good points, although the point about being outcoached when the margin was only a single score is a bit much.
Upon rewatching the game, a couple of things stood out:
- I'm certainly not going to blame the refs for the loss, but boy did they miss Lavert Hill being virtually tackled when he was in great position to stop ND's last touchdown. A 10 yard penalty there instead of a touchdown would have been huge. Mike Tirico made a point of it, and he was absolutely correct. It was as blatant as holding gets.
- A large chunk of ND's success at rushing the QB was due to a stunt where that 6' 7" nose guard would take a step forward and then loop around the end of the line after our tackles were already engaged with the DEs (in fact, this same stunt was the nail in the coffin of the last play). Ruiz was essentially taken out of the play that way (sometimes he looked around frantically for someone to block up the middle and other times he would help out Onwneu or Bredeson). ND did it multiple times, and we never had an answer... a QB draw would have punished them dearly. I'm not sure if we're going to see another nose guard with that athleticism. If we do, I imagine that we'll have a strategy to defend it.
September 2nd, 2018 at 4:34 PM ^
Stunts killed our OL last year. What makes you think we won’t see that again a lot this year? And 2 of the sacks were just Runyan getting flat out beat.
Im not writing off the season or calling for coaches to get fired but if the OL doesn’t improve a lot we’re going to have another 8-4 season.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:26 PM ^
Michigan got killed by stunts up the middle last year. I didn't see a lot of that last night, but I will rewatch to confirm.
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:45 PM ^
Look, not saying ND will have top 15 offense this year, but...
1. Wimbush was good. One some close balls his receivers helped him out. He was more accurate than he had been in most of his prior starts. He had a very good game.
2. ND offensive game plan was intelligent and well executed, mostly. They had a very intelligent plan for neutralizing Michigan's fast front 7. I do not like Kelly's personality. But he is a generally smart with his game plans. His offensive game plan was a lot smarter than Michigan's last night.
3. In terms of blue chip roster levels, M and ND are very close to each other right now. And ND was a lot better than Michigan last year. So no so sure why so many here thought ND was going to be inferior...
Michigan was outplayed by a lot for about the first 20 minutes. After that it was even, or Michigan slightly better (except for lacking the two or three big plays they needed to come out with a win).
People are panicking too much. This team can still improve and be really good by October. Right now there is work to do. But those who are now projecting 4 or 5 loses...are over reacting. Get real. MSU and Penn State were far worse than Michigan in week 1. Are you all predicting 4 or 5 loses for both MSU and Penn State, too?
My two concerns are the obvious ones: 1. Offensive tackles are going to be a weak link against good teams. They are what they are. 2. Harbaugh. He has to have smarter offensive game plans. ND has a very intelligent offensive game plan. Michigan did not. Michigan'x plan was not atrocious. It is just that Michigan just ran what JH would probably want to run against any random opponent on any random Saturday. JH did not have an offensive game plan that schemed around the problems he has on the o-line and also scheme around ND's excellent front 7. That is not going to work against ND level front 7. If JH does not scheme to manage the weaknesses (terrible at this last night) and emphasize the strengths (not terrible last night but could do even more to exploit Patterson's abilities), then it will end up a very disappointing season. I do agree with those who say JH should should hire a real OC and (mostly) let him run the offense.
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^
I actually didn't think Gary or Winovich were getting too far upfield as much as the interior DL was getting zero push. Last year they were turning the corner at the same spot, but Hurst was also wrecking the inside and getting pressure up the middle leaving the QB much less room. Now, they are getting to the same spot but our DTs are mired at the LOS still, leaving a big gap.
I also thought Brown was actually not aggressive enough. Once we started bringing an extra guy or two in the second half, those lanes got plugged just from the extra bodies.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:31 PM ^
I agree with the take on the DT's not getting enough push. I stated as much in some of the other threads. It should be clear just how good and disruptive Mo Hurst was.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
I think Mo Hurst spoiled us in a big way. Even very good dts don’t get a ton of interior pressure, but he was elite for two seasons.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^
I agree Hurst was special, but at the same time, our DTs had virtually no pass rush or even got any push. If they at least get ND's interior line a step or two back Wimbush can't step up or run like he did and Gary and Winovich likely rack up a few more sacks or at least hurries.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^
Yep. I remember a 3rd and 1 in the first half. Mone got pushed two yards. Michigan needs him to push the guard/center back. I hope they get more push as the year progresses. If not, it'll have to be blitzes to push the middle.
Ed. It was 4th and inches and Mone got pushed a yard.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
ND's interior line returned from an exceptional OL the previous year. They are good - so hopefully we will see more from our interior D going forward.
While it's good to see some optimism (with some valid points) I don't see the game as evenly played after the 1st Q. We benefited from a special teams TD combined with ND playing conservative down the stretch. Uninspired offensive game plan is very frustrating.
Unfortunately, I have to give props to ND fans. With the exception of the obnoxious young lady in front of me at the game, they were very gracious hosts. I thoroughly enjoyed the pregame atmosphere and discussing the game with the guy next to me. While surrounded by green, it never felt uncomfortable. The drive back to A2 sure sucked though.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
FACTS.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
Thank you for a realistic look at what was a very frustrating game.
I think if there were a rematch, Michigan has more than a legit chance to win if they can figure out how to block anybody.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
Agreed re: everything. Enjoy your break from all these toxic assholes.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
I have no problem with Braylon....he was a huge part of the last Michigan team to win something all those 14 yrs ago and actually beat all our rivals in his career. Sadly very few can say that the last decade plus.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:33 PM ^
His behavior and comments are abhorent. He doesn't get a pass because he was good. I pray that he will reflect on his actions and apologize.
September 2nd, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
Yeah, that's probably for the best; for your own sanity. Hope to see you back soon. You're one of the more solid contributors to the blog.
September 2nd, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
Whether optimistic or realistic (and I personally lean towards the latter), this is a welcome assessment to balance some of the depressing negativity in other threads. This was always a game we were more likely to lose than to win, for reasons that have been pointed out frequently, and if ND prove to be an elite team this year, then a seven-point away defeat should not be too discouraging. Despite the loss and mistakes, the team fought to the end, and for that they deserve credit.
If the team can learn from the experience and sharpen its skills against less formidable opposition, it should be in better shape to meet the challenges later in the season. Then we shall see what it is capable of.
Meanwhile, as a further crumb of comfort, remember that MSU and PSU struggled against unranked opponents.
Go Blue!
September 2nd, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
Notre Dame is an 8 and 4 team if they played in the big ten instead of their cushiony schedule.
Michigan is a top 25 team IF they can get tackles that could start for any other Big Ten team.
Thats it. That’s our season. Put in anyone who can pass protect if they exist. If not, there’s nothing particularly positive to say as our ceiling becomes 8 wins.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
This assessment is way too pessimistic.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
They stand no chance against Wisconsin, MSU, and OSU unless Mayfield and Hudson are significant upgrades. They probably lose at Northwestern as well
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
Let’s get them both going next week so they can be improved by October (Mayfield and Hudson).
September 3rd, 2018 at 6:08 AM ^
This is a good ND team. Good OL, really good defense, good WR's and TE's and a QB that looks much improved over last year. If they are an 8-4 team, we are a 7-5 team.
September 3rd, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^
IF, IF, IF...
September 3rd, 2018 at 8:41 AM ^
"Notre Dame is an 8 and 4 team if they played in the big ten instead of their cushiony schedule."
Based on what?
September 2nd, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
Finally a post from someone who doesn’t think the world has ended. There was a lot to build in last night. 5-1 going into that tough 3 game stretch is very possible. Then the goal would be 2-1 through that, which sets up a game vs. osu for the EAST title.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^
I don't think the world has ended. I just think the offense is no better than last year's, despite the obvious upgrade in QB. Same turnstile OL, same unimaginative play calling.
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
Please don't stay away too long.
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
And don't forget about Metellus being ejected. IIRC that long TD pass was to where he "would've been" and that literally could've changed the entire outcome of the game had he not been ejected. I know I know.. coulda shoulda woulda, but "just sayin'"
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:39 PM ^
I managed to get through a re-watch this morning and am glad I did. I came away a lot less depressed about the team too.
OL was actually better than I initially thought. Some rough spots for sure, especially Runyan but a lot of the pressures were simply RPS/ND bringing in more guys than we had blockers and Shea failing to find the hot read fast enough. Overall, I liked the flashes we saw of being able to move and deliver accurately, really from both QBs. The skill players looked pretty good mostly too. I did think Higdon did miss a few holes badly, but also powered out a lot of yards on his own at times.
We certainly are still pretty dysfunctional in a lot of ways, but at the same time we were moving the ball in chunks here and there. Michigan was in the red zone(ish) three times and only came away with 3 points, in the end that was really what did us in.
Defense was snake bit last night. A lot of relatively small things were extremely costly. All three early TDs were enabled by big penalties. The mistakes were mostly from known entities in Hill and Bush, neither of which had great games. Interior DL was a bit of a let down early. Mone and Marshall are just guys and were ruining the excellent edge pressure Gary and Winovich were generating all night by not pushing the pocket and giving Wimbush room to step up or lanes to run. Marshall also got blow up or pancaked regularly when taking doubles. Dwumfour was also clearer not Hurst but bigger, but we should have expected that. He showed flashes of good burst but also when blocked, he tended to stay blocked. In general the interior didn't generate havoc like last year's and let the OL run their pulls and releases.
The only other real question mark was Gil. I thought he did ok, looking pretty athletic and fast. He did have a few instances of catching blocks, but when OL get clean releases, that'll happen.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
It's hard to take anything good from an OL where the tackles were getting dominated and there were a couple of other big mistakes (notably Ruiz on the interception), but I noticed that after one bad stunt they basically picked up all of the funny stuff. The interior was good. Unless I missed a substitution, Onwenu lasted the whole game fine on a day when a lot of guys were cramping up.
I agree with your optimism about the offense, though it's worth noting that we had trouble with td-less red zone appearances last year as well. I usually don't care about blowouts, but a big score against WMU will be an improvement over basically every game last year and would show growth that we couldn't see against ND.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:59 PM ^
I actually didn't think JBB got dominated. He failed to pick up fast edge rushers on blitzs a bit but generally held his own against the DEs. Runyan definitely got worked badly a few times and was also mentally not very sharp with passing off stunts. Overall they held up fairly well until it was obvious M was in a passing situation, which happens to the best OLs.
Agree with needing a clean, dominant win against the easier teams. That's always been the real harbinger of a bad season to come, when Michigan struggles to put away the ones they should.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:34 AM ^
I think on the strip sack that ended the game, Runyan was doubling a DE and a stunt went right by him, but I am not positive. Rewatch starting shortly.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Yes, came off the DE far too late.
September 3rd, 2018 at 2:31 AM ^
I am up to the 11:32 mark of the 2nd quarter. I have seen three plays or so where Runyan got beat and one or two where JBB got beat. Both of them got beat on 2nd and goal, which ended in a sack. Ruiz missed his block on 1st and goal. If he had made the block, I think Higdon scores.
Runyan got beat inside on a 3rd and 3 play by Daelin Hayes. He missed at least one stunt.
Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but this stuff can be fixed.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:26 AM ^
A lot of ND big rushes came when they had 6 at the line and Michigan had an empty backfield. Even so, Shea got the ball away on some of those speed rushes. The tackles still had problems with stunts. It seem like our LB were blocked well and the DT were held along the line. The overall play was not as bad as I feared since I could not watch the game live. I think this team will improve and have a good chance of defeating @ MSU, PSU and WI.
September 2nd, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^
Great post thanks for sharing with the community. Couldn't watch the game due to travel for work and reading some of the posts on game thread had me concerned this season would be a train wreck. Seems very likely ND has a better team than Utah 2015. Hopefully JH can pull even with MSU this season and Urban gets another case of the Florida flu .
Go Blue
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
Thank you for posting this. I like fans like yourself. I thought we played well too, and definitely did not think after being down as we were, we would come back and pull within 7 points.
Something that needs to be said about Patterson. He is going to be great! I liked the way he was trying to hustle the offense into a huddle. I liked his emotions on the sidelines when things didn't work out. He showed leadership.
Also, my Notre dame friends were very classy after this game. They think we played well too.
All in all, I'm still excited to be going to the home opener next weekend against WMU.
Go blue! Thanks for posting this!
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