Conference realignment spitballing / Machiavellian Michigan Man.
I’m sure many of you will call this fan fiction or poo-poo this idea but from a Chicago raised/NYC based Michigan fan, who loves the B1G and would rather see everyone but the SEC in driver’s seat I started thinking about the best way to prevent the SEC super conference from determining the future of college athletics. Take a look below:
This all started with the rumors about the B1G being in contact with Kansas. I know many have brought up the point of the off the field issues with their sports program, but it’s still a national brand and strengthens the conference’s basketball portfolio.
Next the B1G would have to pillage the ACC for academic fits that improve basketball and strengthen the East Coast’s football footprint. As it stands, PSU, Rutgers and Maryland are held up by Penn State. This can be improved by raiding for the following teams:
- Syracuse - Hoops, academics, a natural rival for Rutgers, makes the NYC/NYS region exclusively B1G with Rutgers. Footballs obviously been down but has had moments.
- Boston College - furthest North ACC. Has had up and down hoops and football but would lock down the Boston Market in addition to the NYC/NYS market making the NE a B1G region along with the Great Lakes.
- Pitt - Natural fit for PSU and the eastern part of the B1G footprint. Has the academics, and isn’t a minus on the hardwood.
- Virginia - Academics, basketball, orange bowl appearance in recent years! This will also further lockdown the DMV as a B1G stronghold and is another team to broadcast in the DC/Richmond area.
- Duke/UNC - Basketball schools with academics, football has been middle of the road but the basketball strength here is going to outweigh and football contribution.
And let’s not forget the most important school in this with an ACC affiliation, Notre Dame.
- Notre Dame - they bring academics, a national brand (great for negotiating TV deals), competitive football, competitive basketball. Natural rivals in UM, Pitt, BC. Would be able to play a marquee conference game against OSU. Not to mention they are Chicago’s real college team.
So if you’re keeping track at home, the B1G empire now contains the DC/DMV, NYC/NYS, Boston, Chicago, western PA, and the native B1G footprint, but we aren’t done yet.
With the Big 12 (likely) dissolving from the departures of OU and Texas to the SEC, the time to pick apart the carcass is now. We discussed Kansas, but let’s circle back and take a look at who would be worth picking up.
- West Virginia - obviously the academics aren’t the selling point here, BUT, they’ve been competitive on the field and the hardwood and help to recreate a great rivalry with Pitt and another school that would shorten travel distances for the east coast members.
- Iowa State - Iowa’s other public university, fits academically, has a more than fine basketball program and many of us would like to see Matt Campbell here. Securing the battle for the CyHawk/ El Assíco would be fun but it also creates another school within Nebraska’s footprint that makes it easier for travel.
- Oklahoma State - The other OSU (lol). Really solid athletics program, unsure on the academics but another school within the ole Big12/10/8 footprint.
- The Rest of the Big12/10/8 - I’m not sure you really want or have the ability to grab anyone else left. Kansas State may get the call if KU does but they’re not your first pick, TCU wouldn’t be terrible but not sure if you can entice them but access to the Dallas market would be good. Baylor has obvious issues that cannot be overlooked but they fit the basketball profile and football has demonstrated it can be good. Texas tech is basically on the moon but we all remember their hoops team.
And last but not least, we head to our west coast counter parts the PAC-12. Now they missed the boat on the last round of TV deals, made their own TV network where no one could watch their programs, they play 2-3 hours behind the bulk or the country but have great academic institutions, great history, great football, and can have good hoops! The key would this would basically be creating an alliance/working partnership that allows the PAC-12 and the new MEGA B1G to collectively bargain for TV deals. In this situation, the only change we’d make with this conference is kicking Colorado over to the new B1G to rebuild as much as of the old Big 10/8 as possible and to alleviate travel for teams in that foot print.
***forgot this earlier***
The call should be made for Mizzou. They fit the footprint. They’ve got natural rivals with Illinois and Kansas. They were on record as a “No” vote for admitting Texas and OU.
So now that there are 14 2021 B1G teams, 1 ND, 4 former Big 12 teams, 6 former ACC, 1 poached SEC team, and 1 PAC12 team that comes over via the partnership we end with a total of 27. So how do we figure out how to balance/make sense of these new found teams? Divisions.
There’s 4, they touch all 4 American time zones on the lower 48 and cover the biggest markets in those time zones.
B1G East (get it):
- BC
- Syracuse
- Pitt
- PSU
- Rutgers
- WVU
- Virginia
- Maryland
- UNC
- Duke
Classic B1G/Great Lakes B1G
- UM
- OSU
- MSU
- ND
- Wisconsin
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Illinois
B1G West/ Great Plains:
- Northwestern
- Iowa
- Iowa State
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Colorado
- Oklahoma State
- Mizzou
PAC 11 (ish)
- Washington
- Washington state
- Oregon
- Oregon state (we have all the OSUs)
- Stanford
- Cal
- USC
- UCLA
- Arizona
- Arizona st
- Utah
Working theory (for football), is that you play your division as straight up as possible, four division winners get seeded 1-4, play each other at home/higher seed chooses venue. Conference Championship final gets played at the Rose Bowl, MetLife stadium, Lucas Oil, Minnesota’s (NFL) new stadium, Ford Field, etc.
This now becomes the best basketball conference in the country. This is a functioning conference larger than the new SEC and will have more to bring to the table come TV deal time.
This new conference would be able to come to the table with the following markets:
- New York City
- Los Angeles
- Chicago
- San Francisco
- Washington DC
- Boston
- Denver
- Seattle
- Detroit
- Minneapolis/St. Paul
- Cleveland/Columbus
- Pittsburgh
- Raleigh/Charlotte
- Richmond
Now, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the SEC will not sit idly by and will likely continue to add to counter. They’d be adding the following teams left without a conference or looking to join:
- Clemson
- Florida State
- Miami
- Louisville
- Georgia Tech
- Baylor
- TCU
- Virginia Tech (though they could fit in the new B1G especially if UVA joined)
- Texas Tech
They’d have a better football conference but the gap wouldn’t be as wide as would exist in 16 team super SEC conference.
This was just playing around and thinking of different options. Kind of the fun activities during bleak moments lol. Idk let me know your thoughts or if you’re from one of these places let me know if you think it’s possible for your local program to come into the fold!
My head hurts.
Gotta stop drinking and go to bed, sir
Just wait until the last two diaries get merged into a super diary.
My more simple take: The B10 needs to take some high level schools (not leftovers from the B12 or any other also-ran ACC teams). However, there are 3 criteria IMO that the B10 will consider:
- Academic fit: Large "Flagship U" or "State U"; very likely public but not strictly required, R1 university. AAU likely but not strictly required. Doubt they take the #2 school in a state without the #1 along as well.
- High level Athletics or potential for higher level. Not just football/basketball but make no mistake, this needs to be a football move. This isn't about hoops - football is the money maker and the expanded playoff will only exacerbate that fact.
- New Market for recruiting footprint/viewership. I'm thinking more about recruiting b/c IMO, the B12 is as dead as the BEast and the ACC is the new B12. Top end talent from Tex to Fla will play for the best teams in the best league and that's the SEC. Money will bring the SEC up in hoops as well and IMO, have already caught up and arguably passed the ACC as a hoops conf. Talent will gravitate to the SEC, choking out the ACC. Also IMO, the B10 will look for contiguous states to develope/strengthen local rivalries.
B10 should look eastward (P12 teams are a non-starter IMO and Seth's B10-P12 merger is a bit pie in the sky for me) b/c the leftovers of the B12 are exactly that. No B12/middle western teams bring 2 of the 3 check marks above:
- KU is not a great fit academically, nor are they a good athletics school, save hoops. No Market worth considering. They are 0/3 IMO and are likely the highest profile team remaining in the B12.
- Mizzou may be pissed for the moment. But there's a reason they went to the SEC. Also, I'm not sure their academics and financials as a U are in very good shape.
- That leaves the ACC teams, Let's start in order of my preference/expectations for what teh B10 would do: UVa. 3/3 and a slam dunk IMO. Only issues are football isn't top notch, but the rest of their sports are. HUGE market, can be convinced that PSU, Maryland, M, OSU, etc., should be their new athletic peers instead of FSU, Clemson, etc. Problem is, VT may be required to come with the Cavs, which is fine with me as the Hokies are a 2/3 for me.
- UNC is also a 3/3 and an obvious fit. Not sure if Duke and NCSt are deal breakers but I'm not confident NCSt has the academic fit and Duke is private. I could see the B10 taking Duke since NWern is an obvious peer academically and athletically. I can see them taking NCSt if it's a dealbreaker for UNC.
- GT is a strong school, weak athletically but brings the very large ATL market and, with UVa and UNC (and others?) could set up a strong hold for southern talent that counters the SEC.
- ND is the obvious square peg in a round hole, as they have been since 1900. No they aren't a large state school and no they probably want nothing to do with the B10, but if they see the ACC the way I do (as the next dominoe to fall) and the easter/southern expansion that I'm proposing is viable, they may be more receptive.
Summary:
- SEC will own the southern talent, choking out the ACC teams not names FSU, Clemson. Basketball will also grow to (already has?) exceed the ACC.
- ACC will be the next B12/BEast and is doomed, IMO. SEC probably takes FSU and Clemson.
- B10 should add 4 to get to 18, aiming for UNC, GT, ND and UVa. Expands to the south and many new markets, all elite academic schools. Split into 2 divisions.
- If VT, NCSt, Duke need to come along, that's fine. Now we're talking 20-22 teams with 2 10-11 team divisions.
You are assuming that the ACC's grant of media rights clause for members won't be an impediment to schools leaving that conference.
According to CR, it's possible that a suit will lead to a settlement that is reasnable and/or a court saying that the penalties are unfair/unreasonable to the member schools.
Who or what is CR?
Craig's a good guy and I enjoy his comments on the Roundtable, but I think some of his assertions are questionable.
WRT to the question of whether the penalties for leaving the ACC are unreasonable, seems to me that every institution that signed off on them is on thin legal ice to challenge them in court. But I'm not an attorney so...
I mean it’s not his legal speciality and I’d doubt there’s a good chance of getting off cheap but idk who else could chime in
An opportunity for the B1G to be bold here and take in a large swath of middle western and eastern, as well as good mid-south schools. Such moves could compel ND to come aboard as well.
The game of chicken that awaits--with some conferences seeking to pre-empt the moves of others--may make for some real chaos; they make impending scenarios hard to game-plan for.
I think there's a very good chance that conservative B1G presidents, with academics uppermost, play it safe and add one or two more schools. Whereupon the B1G becomes the lesser conference, the SEC paramount. The piranha will come back to swallow us little fish later.
Your take is not more simple. It is more considered, more rational. The OP spent more time typing his words than he spent contemplating the consequences of adding the likes of Syracuse or BC.
Your take is not more simple. It is more considered, more rational. The OP spent more time typing his words than he spent contemplating the consequences of adding the likes of Syracuse or BC.
How many times do we have to say that adding teams like Mizzou or Syracuse really adds nothing, looks pathetic, and pleases no one?
Also it's amazing how many people jumped on a tweet -- a tweet! -- saying that Kansas is talking to the league. Anyone can talk to anyone. I'm sure lots of teams are talking to lots of leagues. There's ZERO chance the B10 wants Kansas, the worst P5 program ever.
It's not the worst. I'd say that's Iowa State. Iowa already has the state on the cable networks and why would you want to make ISU better and thus Iowa worse than they already are?
It least Kansas City is a new market to get into and Kansas basketball is solid.
I'd still pass unless they were number 16 and number 15 was a big fish like Notre Dame.
I mentioned it in another thread, but Syracuse does bring the NYC market. SU may be 5 hours from New York City, but a lot of alumni are in the city as well as non-affiliated fans. Plus, aside from BC, Syracuse is really the only major sports program in the NY/New England region.
I would imagine the combination of Rutgers + the fact that so many alums from teams whose alums care about football live in the NYC metro probably already has the network on all the major cable systems. That probably makes Syracuse redundant.
I'm all right with BC as a target. I know they don't care much about college football up there, but the television market is huge.
While the Big 12 looks pretty shaky right now, the ripple effects don't end there. If OU and TX do leave, and if other conference members like KU or ISU also leave, the logical place for the Big 12 to look for new members is the Mountain West. Air Force, Boise State, and/or Colorado State would fit nicely as western members of the Big 12. Another option would be to go after BYU, currently an independent.
Keep academics first, naval, Air Force, and West Point
No thanks on the service academies! Army damn near beat us (probably should have beat us) in 2019. Too difficult to prepare for.
Strong long-term thinking in evidence here. Not.
If ND wants to join the Big Ten, they need to knock on the door and ask. Enough with chasing them. And to hell with them, while we are on the topic.
Ummmm. No.
The ACC's media rights run through like 2036. So no for now...
No thanks on the scraps of the Big XII.
Football is King and we have a strong enough basketball conference without Kansas.
The PAC's media rights ends in 2023. Good timing to consider them. Plus they are getting killed $ distribution wise.
If we're looking to compete with the SEC and the addition of Texas and Oklahoma ONLY a few schools will fit that bill.
Considerations NEED to include ALL:
Football success, academics, NEW media markets* and recruiting footprint.
* They need to grow the pie enough to justify adding them.
My thoughts:
Notre Dame and USC **
USC and Stanford
USC and UCLA
USC and Washington
USC and Oregon
USC, Stanford, UCLA, Berkley
Notre Dame, USC, Stanford, Kansas
Etc.
** For now and go after ACC later:
Football, academics, NEW markets, RECRUITING and already in SEC footprint.
FSU
Georgia Tech
and
North Carolina
Virginia
I’d like to see us add Cincinnati. Give OSU an in state rival.
I’ve always thought having an in state rival like MSU was a significant disadvantage in our rivalry with OSU.
Have considered this too. And from what I understand, Cincy fans already harbor a lil bro animosity toward osu. They believe they can beat their columbus brethren in both football and basketball if only osu was obligated to consistently schedule them, which osu (at least from one opinionated Cincy fan I talked to) seems reluctant to do.
Merge the B1G and the PAC.
This. It's the best of all the lousy choices.
Merge with the Pac, then long-term raid choice pieces of ACC.
One of the lesser known lessons Machiavelli imparted to rulers in Renaissance Italy, the lethal art of spitballing.
This mega-conference stuff is stupid. Beat the guys in your region and then play the other regions in a bowl game. Discuss endlessly who is better. Who cares if the Big East and Big 8 sucked most years? They either live in parts of the country that don't care about college sports or are just shitty places. That's their thing and it adds to the national character.
Nebraska (at the time) and PSU were good additions that sort of fit our region.
Maryland and Rutgers while "strategically brilliant" for TV dollars have been horrible additions. They're like Northwestern when Northwestern was bad.
I would like to see some of UofM's brain trust figure out how to bomb the SEC back into oblivion. Seriously is there some sort of spy shit, kerriganing or hamstring cut we can do so that I don't have to hear about the SEC ever again?
If you don't say "pop" you shouldn't be in the big ten.
Mr. Quad, you may be on to something when suggesting a linguistic rationale ("pop") for the Big Ten.
Here's a quiz from the New York Times that asks how you use or pronounces particular words (garage sale or tag sale; "aunt;" soda or pop or tonic), which does a pretty good job of assessing the geographic source of where each of us picked up our word usage.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/dialect-quiz-map.html
Why do people think ND will join the Big Ten?
I don't know if they ever will, although it looks unlikely for now given their sweetheart deal with the ACC.
Things do change though and someday it may make sense for them to join the Big 10.
What I do know is, they are the one slam dunk add to the conference on every metric.
That would be great for PSU football, albeit boring. It would be terrible for UM football, albeit not much different from the current structure. I think we all need to get over our history and get the fuck away from OSU. Anything that puts UM and OSU in the same division, particularly with another top program like PSU or ND, is going to be bad for business. UM has proven for the better part of the last two decades it can't compete with OSU and I for one am sick of watching them fail at trying.
If I could have it my way;
I would remove Maryland and Rutgers.
Replace them with Pitt and ND.
If I can further get rid of the bye week, I would add BC and UVA.
this won't end well for the B1G
Notre Dame continues to be the crown jewel of expansion talks for the B1G. They are the only school available that would clearly enhance the value of the B1G.
If I were king, schools like Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State wouldn't even be considered. We've already gone through one cycle of watering down the B1G brand by adding Maryland and Rutgers, and at least those schools came with the promise of TV rights to two major metro areas. None of the schools I mentioned would either add significant TV dollars or significant prestige.
You could argue that Virginia, Duke, and/or UNC would add TV money, both in terms of new TV markets and in terms of basketball success. Any of those schools would also be an academic fit with the B1G. However, none of them add much in football (which is where the money is), and both would significantly increase the geographic footprint of the B1G, adding to travel costs and watering down the conference's regional base.
At this point, I don't think the B1G needs to expand for expansion's sake. We don't have nearby schools like Texas or Oklahoma that would increase the value of the league, and I don't want to be in a conference where we play cross-division teams (like Minnesota) once every 6-8 years. Things are fine as-is.
If we absorb KU and ISU, then we have to realign the division to north - south. Keep OSU in the south and Michigan in the north.
FWIW from Adam Rittenberg on twitter:
"Heard today from several people that B1G only would be interested in adding schools from the AAU (Nebraska no longer, but was when it joined league). Texas is AAU member, along with Pac-12 schools like Cal, Washington, Colorado, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford. Oklahoma is not AAU."
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