Breaking Down Washington: Schedule Analysis and Comparison to Michigan
We're at the point in the season where we have the most data accumulated. If the analytics are ever accurate, I would expect now to be the time when they are most prescient. With that in mind, I started taking a look at how Michigan stacks up against UW through the lens of a few questions (note that all rankings referenced are SP+ rankings):
- Who are the best offenses each team faced, and how did those offenses do?
- Which teams scored the most points against each team, and how good were those offenses?
- Who are the best defenses each team faced, and how did each team do against those defenses?
- Who held each team to the lowest points scored, and how good were those defenses?
For context and comparison, I'll start by listing the SP+ rankings for Michigan and Washington:
- Michigan: #12 offense, #1 defense, #7 ST
- Washington: #4 offense, #44 defense, #47 special teams
Starting with Washington's Defense:
Who are the best offenses Washington faced, and how did those offenses do?
The point of this question is to determine whether Washington has faced an offense of Michigan's caliber. And if so, how did they fare? I answered the question by looking at teams they played with a top-25 offense. UW played five games against four top-25 offenses (Oregon twice):
- Oregon (#1 offense), 33 points (first meeting, regular season)
- Oregon (#1 offense), 31 points (PAC-12 CG)
- @USC (#3 offense), 42 points
- Texas (#6 offense), 31 points
- @Arizona (#9 offense), 24 points (decent shit, Jedd)
- SUMMARY: against the top offenses on their schedule, Washington averaged 32 points against, with an average offense ranking of 4. Note that all of these offenses are ranked higher than Michigan's, with Oregon's offense being 9 points better than Michigan's. Michigan will not be the best offense that Washington has faced.
Which teams scored the most points against Washington, and how good were those offenses?
This question drives at the same point as above, just from a different angle. Intuitively, I would expect the best offenses to put up the most points; but that isn't always the case. I looked at this one through the lens of the five highest-scoring games against Washington's defense. Those were:
- @USC (#3 offense), 42 points
- Oregon (#1 offense), 33 points (first meeting, regular season)
- @Stanford (#94 offense), 33 points
- California (#43 offense), 32 points
- Oregon (2nd game) and Texas (#6 offense), 31 points
- SUMMARY: in their worst 5 defensive performances, Washington's defense averaged 33 points against. No surprise to see overlap between the first question and this one, as you would expect the best offenses to put up the most points. The Stanford and Cal games stand out as outliers here.
Now on to Washington's Offense:
Who are the best defenses Washington faced, and how did they do against those defenses?
Similar to above, the point of this question is to determine whether Washington has gone up against a defense of Michigan's caliber; and if they have, how did they do? I looked at this through the lens of top-25 defenses Washington faced. They played four games against three top-25 defenses (again, Oregon twice).
- Texas (#11 defense), 37 points
- Oregon (#16 defense), 36 points (first meeting, regular season)
- Oregon (#16 defense), 34 points (PAC-12 CG)
- Utah (#24 defense), 35 points
- SUMMARY: against the top defenses on their schedule (with an average ranking of 16), Washington averaged 35 points. While certainly impressive, it stands out to me that Michigan's defense is rated 10 points better than Texas's (the best defense that Washing has faced). Michigan's defense will clearly be the best defense Washington has faced this year.
Who held Washington to the lowest points scored, and how good were those defenses?
To answer this question, I looked at Washington's 5 lowest point totals on the year:
- Arizona St. (#89 defense), 15 points
- @Oregon St. (#35 defense), 22 points
- Washington St. (#75 defense), 24 points
- @Arizona (#40 defense), 31 points
- Oregon (#16 defense), 34 points (PAC-12 CG)
- SUMMARY: This is very interesting, due to the fact of very little overlap with the prior list. You would expect the worst point totals to come against the best teams. I wonder if this highlights an element of UW playing up and down to their competition level.
With Washington covered, here is the Michigan breakdown:
Starting with Michigan's Defense:
Who are the best offenses Michigan faced, and how did those offenses do?
Michigan played...one game against a top-25 offense this year. Woof. Big Ten offenses were atrocious this year. Since there's only one top-25 offense, I expanded this to include the four next best offenses Michigan faced, just to align with the five I listed for Washington:
- Alabama (#11 offense), 20 points
- PSU (#30 offense), 15 points
- UNLV (#32 offense), 7 points (this seems odd that their offense ended up ranked this high...they must have finished stronger than they started)
- OSU (#33 offense), 24 points
- Maryland (#56 offense), 24 points
- SUMMARY: Michigan gave up an average of 18 points to best offenses they played, with an average offense rank of 32. It is worth noting that Michigan held Alabama to their lowest point total on the season (with the exception of Bama's flukey game against USF, where they scored 17 points). Aside from that, it's clear that Washington's offense will be the best offense Michigan has faced this year.
Which teams scored the most points against Michigan, and how good were those offenses?
- Maryland (#56 offense), 24 points
- OSU (#33 offense), 24 points (I was surprised to see OSU's offense ranked this low)
- Alabama (#11 offense), 20 points
- PSU (#30 offense), 15 points
- Purdue (#90 offense), 13 points
- SUMMARY: in their worst 5 defensive performances, Michigan averaged 19 points against. Purdue really doesn't count as an outlier here, as they managed 2 field goals all game, before scoring a touchdown in the final 18 seconds.
Now, Michigan's offense:
Who are the best defenses Michigan faced, and how did they do against those defenses?
Michigan played seven teams with top-25 defenses:
- OSU (#2 defense), 30 points
- Iowa (#3 defense), 26 points
- PSU (#4 defense), 24 points
- Nebraska (#6 defense), 45 points (this stands out as the biggest beneficiary of a terrible Big Ten conference...there's no way Nebraska had the 6th best defense in the country this year.)
- Alabama (#8 defense), 27 points
- Maryland (#13 defense), 31 points
- Rutgers (#19 defense), 31 points
- SUMMARY: Against these 7 opponents (with an average defensive rank of 7), Michigan averaged 30 points. I know SP+ is set up to control for quality of competition, etc, but I believe the top to bottom (with the lone exception of Michigan) ineptitude of Big Ten offenses this year is schewing these metrics. The Nebraska and Rutgers defensive rankings stand out as particularly out of place. But the takeaway here is that Michigan has played a number of defenses ranked higher than Washington's, and they've put up points. Another interesting note is that MSU's defense is ranked #45, one spot behind Washington's...and as we all remember, Michigan put up 49 on those guys.
Who held Michigan to the lowest points scored, and how good were those defenses?
Michigan's 5 lowest point-totals:
- PSU (#4 defense), 24 points
- Iowa (#3 defense), 26 points
- Alabama (#8 defense), 27 points
- OSU (#2 defense) and ECU (#81 defense), 30 points
- Maryland (#13 defense), Rutgers (#19 defense), BGSU (#76 defense), 31 points
- SUMMARY: in their worst scoring performances, Michigan averaged 28 points. The outliers here are BGSU and ECU; otherwise, the best defenses Michigan faced held them to their lowest point totals.
OVERALL SUMMARY
With all this in mind, a few takeaways to me:
- These teams have faced polar opposite schedules: Washington has gone head to head against the best offenses in the country, and came out on top. Michigan has faced the best defenses in the country, and came out on top.
- When facing top offenses, Washington has conceded points. When facing top defenses, Michigan has still put up points. I expect Michigan to score over 30 points in this game.
- When facing top defenses, Washington has put up points. When facing top offenses, Michigan hasn't given up more than 24 points.
- Michigan's defense hasn't faced an offense of Washington's caliber; Washington's offense hasn't faced a defense of Michigan's caliber.
- Michigan's offense has faced defenses of Washington's caliber; Washington's defense has faced offenses of Michigan's caliber.
This will be a fascinating game, and one that I expect to be close the whole way. I'm going to out on a limb and say Michigan wins 33-27.
January 3rd, 2024 at 9:58 AM ^
yeah it looks like the fancystats would have this at about a 30-30 matchup with the winner happening at the margins.
i am encouraged that michigan's defense has confounded some really good offensive attacks - ohio and alabama namely, hoping minter has one more bag of tricks, and old penix and company are flummoxed by coverage they haven't seen.
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:15 AM ^
Michigan is a 13-point favorite in SP+. They're a touchdown favorite on Massey. They're 0.42 points per possession favored on FEI, which is a sizable gap because it counts possessions for each team. So a "ten-possession game" (meaning, each team has the ball ten times) is really 20; call it an 8-point margin.
The fancystats are all saying the same thing: Michigan is the superior team.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^
I wonder what they were saying about the Michiga/TCU matchup?
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:08 PM ^
I wonder what you were saying about the Michigan-Alabama matchup.
January 4th, 2024 at 5:28 PM ^
It's true if Michigan throws two pick 6s and fails to score after getting to the Washington 1 yard line on multiple occasions they probably won't beat Washington. Michigan made a number of uncharacteristic mistakes against TCU and if they do the same thing against Washington they probably won't win. The players have even said they took TCU lightly and hopefully they won't be doing the same here with Washington.
We were also missing Blake Corum against TCU as well which absolutely would have a been a difference maker if he had been able to play.
January 4th, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
....and we need to return our special teams to the calibur it was running before the last game
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:05 AM ^
parker fleming fancystats guy agrees with you. 30-27 good guys
January 3rd, 2024 at 7:02 PM ^
I don't fully ever understand these. Blue means good, red means bad? The top middle is Washington on offense, the bottom is Michigan on offense?
January 3rd, 2024 at 8:14 PM ^
Yes, blue means good.
Yes, red means bad.
Yes, top middle is Washington offense vs Michigan defense.
Yes, bottom middle is Michigan offense vs Washington defense.
...seems to me like you do fully understand these.
January 4th, 2024 at 12:30 AM ^
Yep, blue means good, red means bad. Glad we're on the same page here :-)
January 4th, 2024 at 11:38 AM ^
haha fair enough. i guess i didn't REALIZE i understood it, so it's got that creeping doubt of "what am I looking at?" Maybe it's best explained as how I felt when watching The Game in 2021.
January 4th, 2024 at 8:54 AM ^
I agree that this is poorly formatted and allows for some misinterpretation. Nonetheless, the stats that jump out at me are the Net Points / Drive.
- Offense: UM = 2.76, UW = 2.95
- Defense: UM = 0.73, UW = 1.85
Effectively, we each score nearly 3 points on average each time we possess the ball. The difference is that their defense has given up 2.5X as many points per drive.
It is very likely that they will score 26 based upon these stats and their offense, but their pass defense is poor and their rush defense is atrocious.
Our offensive strategy should be to control the ball and consistently score, particularly given their poor 3rd / 4th down defensive success. That is nearly tailor made for our preferred offensive style and should allow us to score at least 30.
On defense, we need to get them into 3rd and 4th down as much as possible where our defensive success has been outstanding and much better than anything they have seen. Think bend but don't break on defense.
Let's go!
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:34 AM ^
This is pretty good stuff. It correlates with the conventional wisdom of the Pac-12 being more offense-oriented, while the Big Ten is a conference with better D. And that opens debates about whether or not Michigan's D rating is inflated by playing several weak offenses, and whether or not Washington's O rating is inflated by playing several weak defenses.
I like the matchup for Michigan because Michigan has be best D in the nation, and also a top 10 offense, while Washington has a top three or four offense but...a D that rates about as good as Minnesota (low 40s), per SP+.
The one arguable flaw is that you are using SP+ ratings that include the bowl games, and that skews things because for most bowls there were (1) many starters opting out, and (2) teams with players who did not really seem to care much. And that is why OSU comes in at the no. 33 offense, for example. Prior to scoring only 3 and gaining so few yards with a depleted roster, OSU was a top ten offense, per SP+.
Arguably OSU, FSU, and Georgia are the three teams most misrepresented in SP+ by inclusion of bowl and playoff 1st round games. But there are likely also big skews for many teams, including some Washington opponents.
It might be most reflective of the true strength of offenses and defenses to use SP+ rating post-conference CC games, but not including bowl games. The USC that Washington faced is not the same USC that showed up for their bowl game, for example.
Prior to the playoff and bowl data, Michigan had a top 10 offense but got bumped down to no.12. A couple of teams who played depleted roster opponents in bowls jumped Michigan. But that is not really valid because SP+ does not account for the fact that Really the only post-conference CC games that are useful and reliable data points would be the two playoff games.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
The one arguable flaw is that you are using SP+ ratings that include the bowl games, and that skews things because for most bowls there were (1) many starters opting out, and (2) teams with players who did not really seem to care much. And that is why OSU comes in at the no. 33 offense, for example. Prior to scoring only 3 and gaining so few yards with a depleted roster, OSU was a top ten offense, per SP+.
I had a similar thought, but you must not be looking at the correct SP+ data. When I looked at the SP+ pre-bowl rankings, OSU's offense was at #25. I also had expected to see OSU's offense ranked higher, but I think that was just a matter of assumption. I realize the bowls skewed some things, but I think that's where the overall dataset prevents massive jumps. I kept the reference point as post-bowl rankings to have the most data available.
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:34 AM ^
After watching our pass rush against Alabama, I can't wait to see what Minter has cooked up for Washington.
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:40 AM ^
Unfortunately, Washington's O-line is the current winner of the Joe Moore award.
January 3rd, 2024 at 10:47 AM ^
No doubt they do have a good o-line. OTOH, they have not seen a d-line that is close to Michigan's d-line. This is part of what makes this an interesting matchup.
January 4th, 2024 at 12:01 PM ^
Unadjusted Texas is ranked113th in passing defense, Oregon 54th. Michigan is ranked 2nd.
Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan were 19 of 20 for over 350 yards against Texas. That is a zero probability event against Johnson, Sainristil and Wallace.
If we hold them to 60% of that mark. That is 210 yards and Michigan wins the game.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:01 AM ^
I have.... mixed feelings about pointing this out, but our O-Line was the Joe Moore winners going into the semi-final vs Georgia and we all know how that went.
January 3rd, 2024 at 3:12 PM ^
I will be ecstatic if the “Joe Moore curse” is the new “Heisman curse.”
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:08 AM ^
Georgia and TCU didn't give a rip that Michigan was the Back to Back Joe Moore award winners. Michigan should give them credit, yes, but we've had first had experience seeing that just because you won an award doesn't mean there's areas that can be exploited. Minter drew up an amazing game plan against Alabama. I expect more of the same in Houston.
January 3rd, 2024 at 8:17 PM ^
Minter drew up an amazing game plan against Alabama. I expect more of the same in Houston.
Minter might come up with something good. But keep in mind that it's only one week, whereas the semi-final games have about 4 weeks to come up with a great scheme.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:32 PM ^
Somebody on the Michigan staff was taking a look at Washington (and Texas), you know, just in case Michigan got past Alabama. They won't be a complete mystery.
Also - credit to Ohio State - Michigan has spent all season (and all of 2021 and 2022) prepping for the kind of passing attack that Washington employs. It's not totally apples to apples, especially in 2023, but it's not like Michigan is only ready for Iowa.
January 4th, 2024 at 3:05 AM ^
C'mon these coaches get paid millions n had 5 weeks.
Are you thinking they didn't plan ahead?
Washington may not have but I'd guarantee Jim mf Harbaugh absolutely did.
January 3rd, 2024 at 4:59 PM ^
Correct. And it will be fun to watch the best D line in the country go against the best O-line in the country. Who do you think will win that battle?
As well, I believe Washington has the 54th best scoring D in the country. Will Michigan's offense be able to capitalize early and often?
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:20 PM ^
We had the Joe Moore award against Georgia in 2021 too.
January 5th, 2024 at 1:32 PM ^
So was M's in 2021, before meeting the Philadelphia Eagles defense in the Orange Bowl.
January 3rd, 2024 at 4:28 PM ^
I'm quite hopeful that both Minter and Moore are three star Michelin chefs "in the kitchen" - and, look forward to their creativity being unveiled on Monday evening.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 1:24 AM ^
Another 3-star mafia comment.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:01 AM ^
After reviewing various fancy stats and watching the highlights of the Texas-Washington game, I am feeling pretty good about our offense vs their defense. Texas obliterated them on the ground, and left some wide open lanes for Ewers to scramble. We should be able to slice and dice them both through the ground and the air. We'll be our own worst enemy most likely.
Defensively, I am definitely terrified of Penix and their WRs. Hopefully we'll be able to confuse with our pro style defense and get Penix off-platform with some creative blitzes. I don't think they've seen anything like our defense this year. But similarly, we have not faced anything like their offense either. Their skill guys in total are better than OSU's by some margin IMO, and their pass pro is too.
I'll say Michigan 38, Washington 27
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:32 PM ^
Our defense was conceived and incubated all season long to play a scheme like UW. They will not be able to run against a light box. If they cannot beat us deep, they will need to go down the field throwing the ball, moving the chains, and then have the strength to punch it in from the red zone. This is the OSU gameplan. OTOH, Washington has not been spending their whole season running a defense designed to stop UM's offense. This seems like an advantage to the good guys. However, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth. Our floundering in similar games in the past is cause for worry.
January 3rd, 2024 at 12:44 PM ^
Shades of Sonny Sixkiller! I guess he played in the 1970 game which M won 17-3. Anyway, I agree with others that M pounding the rock for long, sustained, time-consuming scoring drives will be the best defense against the Huskies. Keep Penix on the pine and Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 12:04 AM ^
Penix is a 41% passer on the move. We will have to move him off his spot, and quickly. He is not Milroe, he doesn't need 3.5 seconds to process his reads.
Texas could not do that, they never really put him under pressure. I don't know how good the Texas front 7 is on pash rush, but they were kept at bay.
January 5th, 2024 at 1:38 PM ^
Oregon got him to make some terrible throws, but M will have to cash in when (if) those happen (OU got 1 INT each game, seemed like they could have had a couple more).
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:44 AM ^
Nice breakdown Comrade. This game will be an interesting test of 2023 SP+ ratings.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:33 PM ^
I think the outcome of the game is pretty simple: IF Michigan can prevent big plays, we should win the game.
IF UW can get a few TDs on big plays, they have a chance to win.
I don't see how UW (or anyone) can consistently move down the field against our defense.
Our offense needs to play efficiently, using the running game and play action. But this isn't really in doubt--we should be able to move the ball consistently. We need (IMO) 30 points to win.
Oh, and our special teams need to be back to normal.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:36 PM ^
What I find most encouraging is how Michigan was able to control the Stroud/Wilson/Olave/JSN Ohio State team of a few years ago. I realize there has been turnover on our defense (especially at DE), but Minter seems to be able to put packages together to thwart or at least slow high powered offenses.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:51 PM ^
I think the turnover has been a positive. Yes, we no longer have two elite edge rushers, but we have four good ones, and we have exchanged a not-yet-fully-realized Mazi Smith and a few average players for three guys who look like first round picks, plus Goode (assuming Benny is out for the game). We have junior Junior (lol) Colson instead of freshman Colson, plus Barrett playing like an All American. Will Johnson is better than any CB we had that year (as good as Turner was), Wallace and Gray is probably a wash, Dax and Sainristil is probably a wash, but Rod Moore is much better than the freshman version, Paige is probably a little better than Hawkins.
So we are the same or better at every position (and WAY better at DT), but went from two of the best pass rushers in Michigan history to four pretty good ones. I think that gives us more flexibility and balance, and I think this defense would fare even better against that 2021 OSU offense.
January 3rd, 2024 at 11:50 PM ^
What I find most encouraging is how Michigan was able to control the Stroud/Wilson/Olave/JSN Ohio State team of a few years ago
We did not really control them. CJ Stroud passed for nearly 400 yards at just under 70%. Michigan’s “successful” effort on defense that year came down to getting one more stop than Ohio State’s defense did, and making Ohio State settle for 2 field goals instead of 2 touchdowns. That’s it. But that was enough.
It worked because Michigan's offense was relentless. They controlled the ball, and then paid it off with points. Michigan did not punt a single time in the second half, and only punted twice in the entire game. All Michigan scores where touchdowns, they did not settle for a single field goal.
I believe that Michigan will play well on defense, but they will still need a plan to score over 30 points on offense to win this game. No matter what the defense does, Michigan will need the offense to play well to win.
January 6th, 2024 at 10:30 AM ^
Unfortunately it won't be snowing.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:44 PM ^
Color me worried. Coin flip game. Washington will play with the underdog chip on their shoulder.
I'm hoping our players and coaches will be able to stay focused.
UW could be 2023 OSU with CJ Stroud. That's probably their ceiling, but if they play like that... no es bueno.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:39 PM ^
You're forgetting that 2023 OSU had a top-5 defense. This is more like 2021 OSU, where UM ran the ball down their throat in the second half.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:37 PM ^
Nice analysis. To me the biggest mismatch here is that for as bad as Washington's defense appears to be, their run defense is even worse. I believe I saw that their rush defense success rate was #125 in the country. Texas had three different RBs averaging over 6.5 yards per carry on Monday and (imo) they bailed Washington out by throwing the ball 43 times. Washington gave up 140 yards per game on the ground during the season, and that's against a lot of teams that don't particularly care to run the ball. This feels like a game where Michigan runs the ball 40-50 times at 5+ yards a carry and Penix is sitting on the bench for 2/3 of the game.
35-24 good guys feels about right.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:43 PM ^
I'm wondering what it would be if the Pac-12 played defense and the Big Ten West played offense.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:47 PM ^
Love this analysis! The one thing I'll add is that Michigan's stats against some of the top defenses are a bit skewed.
Michigan featured a defensive TD against Maryland and Rutgers, and in the Maryland game also had two safeties. They also went to OT against Alabama, and against OSU while there was no defensive TD they did have an INT returned to the 5 yard line.
The offense on its own seems to be producing about 24 points per game against top defenses (though they probably could have scored a lot more against Rutgers, and JJ was banged up against Maryland and PSU). I do think Washington's defense is not at the level of the Big Ten elite and Michigan had a much more aggressive game plan against Bama than they did against teams like Maryland and Rutgers, so I think they can top that.
Other side of the ball is more fascinating tbh. Unstoppable force meets immovable object. Brilliant offensive mind with a future NFL QB against the mad scientist who has outschemed Ryan Day and so many others two years in a row. First round pick at WR vs a future first round pick at CB. Elite offensive line against elite defensive line.
I think Washington has to win that matchup pretty convincingly to win, because I do think Michigan will move the ball on them. But they are capable of doing so.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:49 PM ^
Thanks for putting this together. Re some of Washington's bad games, they were flat against ASU and Stanford, and Cal scored 20 points in garbage time.
January 3rd, 2024 at 2:58 PM ^
Someone put a call in to Jeff Fisch, stat.
January 3rd, 2024 at 4:34 PM ^
I assume that SP+ rating for OSU includes the Missouri game, correct? Any idea what they were before then?
January 3rd, 2024 at 5:29 PM ^
On a side comment, I just hope that Michigan gets to play its 3rd and 4th stringers in the 4th quarter because there won't be any way for WASHINGTON to score enough points with the time remaining to hope to get a win.
January 3rd, 2024 at 7:04 PM ^
This is going to be the best offense we've seen by far, and I think it'll be a higher scoring, close game. Washington's D has this weird habit of being bad except when they really need to get a stop - they are clutch, somehow. But - so are we
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