Please, please, please, no injuries, not anymore, none for either team.  Just play well.  Special teams, please return to form.  

We're at the point in the season where we have the most data accumulated.

ACKSHUALLY, every game is the point where we have the most data accumulated.

Continue.

I have been really impressed with Washington this season, a fun team to watch. I've seen them play against any number of Pac 12 opponents and demonstrate exactly why they are undefeated. 

Their receivers are all dynamic pass catchers led by a highly accurate passer in Mike Penix who can make all the throws and put the ball where and when needed absolutely when required. He can also escape pressure and make plays running. Washington will be a tough out. 

The Huakies are used to playing close games and coming out on top every time. The only surprising outcome was their matchup with Arizona State, a trap home game immediately following a huge home win over Oregon, perhaps the most entertaining non-Michigan game of the year for me. 

This was a huge letdown game in which a completely outmanned Sun Devil team hung with the Huskies through much of the second half before finally giving up a go-ahead TD drive after ASU appeared on the verge of cementing an upset win with some unexpected sustained drives led by their running game.  

But every time Washington seemed on the brink this season, Penix would bring his team back. Their backfield is led by a dynamic Oline and Dillon Johnson, an outstanding running back.

He looked to be in severe pain and in need of help coming to the sideline Monday night against Texas late in that contest. And Michigan will catch a huge break if he is unable to go this Monday night. I wouldn't count on it. He'll play if he can walk. And we are unlikely to learn of his condition until gametime.

I have been unimpressed with Washington's defense which plays a deep bend but mostly unbreakable style of defense. Michigan should have success running the ball but will have to thoroughly mix in the passing game to make it able to respond to the Husky offense,  

Washington defense is led by a dynamic edge rusher and is a team loaded with veteran players. The Huskies have more 6-year players than Michigan and average about 4 to 5 year in college game experience among the lion share of their starters. So, what they make up in overall talent, they account for in play experience even if Michigan is more talented on both sides of the ball.  

I should be biting my nails, because the stats say this will be close, yet I'm strangely confident. Metrics and stats are one thing, but we might have have a few matchup advantages in this one.

The stats said we weren't supposed to score a lot against Penn State's highly regarded defense, especially the first big game without Harbaugh; turned out, they had an Achilles heel - they couldn't stop our run game.

Stats said Marvin Harrison would dominate. He didn't. He couldn't get open enough to dominate, and confessed he'd never seen coverages like ours. OSU had a good defense, we scored more points.

The prediction was that we would suffer at the hands of our traditional nemesis, the running quarterback, in the talented Milroe who could also throw accurate downfield bombs. But his receivers didn't get open, and play after play was blown up by the pass rush.

It was shocking what our D was able to do to a top-class offense that won the SEC, especially since we had several fuckups of the kind that usually extinguish all hope in past postseason games.

I have a lot of respect for Washington and Penix. It remains to be seen whether an O-line that has been great against less stellar defenses will hold up our pass rush. It'll be interesting to see if their receivers get more open than Bama's or OSU's.

It'll be even more interesting to see if they can stop our run/possession game, because if they can't and we control the ball for long drives we should be good. Honestly, I think that has a very good chance of happening. So I'm calm.

Sounds like both teams are in for a little shock to their systems.

I sure hope the "defense wins championships" saying is true in this case.

I think our gameplan going in is going to be a steady diet of smash mouth power football on the ground.  Hope Moore has some good run plays ready and not fall victim to whatever TCU did to gum our run game up last year when they knew that was going to be our bread and butter.  Once this is established, set up some easy passing once they start to have to start to commit more resources to the run.   Have more McCarthy just take off on scrambles especially if they play more man to man (not sure if this is something Washington does on D).  But I think JJ designed runs can really gash them.

Basically have these long grind it out 7-8 minute drives capped off with TDs.  Limit Washington's offensive chances dominate time of possession.  On their limited chances, confuse and get them out of sync and frustrate them not being able to establish a rhythm.   Dare them to run into a lighter box and successfully defend it.  Make them one dimensional.  Get the ball back and just boa constrictor the life out of the game with another 7-8 minute bruising drive.

I followed BC SP+ religiously never really grasping what it veiws as important I just always felt it was close to what my brain told me rankings should be.

Now after the latest edition apparently running the score up on a high school team is more important that beating the team that beat the high school team beater.

Bill Connelly SP+ belongs in the🗑 

Rankings should not be able to be manipulate by coaches via running up scores. If anything it should be the opposite.

Defense wins Championships. Go blue!

I hate to speak in footballtalk but Washington really does seem to be a "big game team" - best overall and offensive performances against the best teams that they played. 

I think the Texas performance is worth a significant review - Texas' defense appears to be two All American DT's with a solid but unspectacular "back 9."  If so, as Brian mentioned on the preview podcast, that #10 SP+ defense is very relevant if playing Michigan and less relevant playing Washington.  I'm also not sold on Sark in big moments - they seemed to be playing a lot of catch up style football in that game (lots of passing, not much running) despite being within 1 score or tied for more than 75% of the game.

Washington is going to score and move the ball through the air in this game, I think it's just a question of "will they do it enough."  If they go very pass heavy because they are unable to run, say 50+ attempts, you also assume there will be a lot of clock stoppage due to incomplete passes, leading to likely more possessions and something closer to a game in the old clock rules era.  I think that will heavily favor a deeper Michigan team late in the game.  Of course, that would also probably be a 4.5 hour total length game due to 30 x 3 minute timeouts and a 30 min halftime, so maybe it won't matter.

I don't wish injury on anyone, but if Michigan is getting to Penix like they were to Milroe, I'll be very interested to see how well he holds up, especially if Washington gets to the point where they have to pass or are choosing to pass almost every play.  We saw even against average pass rushers in TCU against probably our best O line in 25 years, when the D knows you are going to pass, the number of pressures will go up, regardless of how good your O line is.

I just can't imagine that Dillon Johnson is going to be effective on Monday night.  The guy got carted off the field from the sideline after being unable to get up on a play where he surely knew an injury timeout was going to potentially cost his team the game.  If it's all pain related and not much is really broken I'm sure they can shoot him up if he wants to go, but he had a rough go against Texas. I think you can be almost certain he's going to be in worse shape for this game than that game, even if he can go.

I also truly believe this team has not played their A game since late October, and I really feel there is another gear they can hit that would make them almost unstoppable in this game.

Is this going to be similar to the '93 Rose Bowl, which was a high-scoring shootout between two explosive offensive teams, or will it be more similar to the '92 Rose Bowl, featuring one team with an potent offense against another with a dominant defense anchored by superior interior DL? Is Mason Graham a 2024 version of Steve Emtman?

Thanks for doing this summary, its a ton of work!  I would like to point out that the lowest scores on the season from UDub should be considered outliers. I was at 2 of those games and watched the 3rd on TV, as my son Yost is a senior at the business school there.  The weather in the ASU, WSU and OreSt games was abysmal.  The ASU game the wind was swirling 20-30MPH from left to right and then vice versa, literally impossible to throw the ball consistently.  Same with OreSt game which was a constant cold rain downpour.  WSU was a mix per my son, but i watched that on TV...

One thing to note was that UDub's D was run all over by ASU in that game, they could not stop the QB scrambles, read option or quick hitting RB dives between the tackles.  If not for a huge length of the field pick 6 late in the fourth qtr, they would have lost that game and deserved to... This bodes really well for M.  Though their rush D has improved considerably since that game, they are still vulnerable there.

Key thing is M needs to get a lead on them and get into Boa mode to force the issue and pressure they will feel to not get 2 scores down. But they do have the team to comeback from a 3 score deficit. Seeing both MHJ and Odunze in person this season, i think Odunze is a better receiver...i know the pundits dont agree with me, but Odunze is better at getting separation when the ball is in the air, he is amazing.... This is going to be a really good game.  If Dillon Johnson can't go, i think M wins by 8-10 pts, if he plays effectively, its going to come down to the last 8 mins of the game and who wants it more and can make a critical play or two!  If M wins the turnover battle, they should win this one going away....

See you in Houston! Go Blue!

defensive speed and pressure = > turnovers => happy trees

Washington "has faced offenses of Michigan's caliber" and "when facing top offenses, Washington has conceded points" and "when facing top defenses, Michigan has still put up points" = Michigan will put up points. Seems to be conclusive (inasmuch as possible)

On the other side of the ball, "Washington's offense hasn't faced a defense of Michigan's caliber" but "when facing top defenses, Washington has put up points". Now, "Michigan's defense hasn't faced an offense of Washington's caliber but "when facing top offenses, Michigan hasn't given up more than 24 points"

So it seems like Michigan will put up points, but they will need to put up more than 24 or so, since UW can score even on a good defense but UM has limited everyone else to 24.