BPONE Fortune Haters' Club Prediction for PSU game

Submitted by CLord on October 13th, 2019 at 11:31 AM

If you're not also deeply rooted in the BPONE, this post is not for you.  Please drive through on your way to YouTube where I highly recommend Rick Beato videos.  Amazing stuff.

They say  frustration = expectation / reality so let's dig deep into the BPONE to lower those expectations in a self- medicating exercise meant to mitigate next Saturday's inevitable frustration.

PSU 38 - UM 10

  • All of us strap into our seats and sofas with that irrational, logic defying shred of hope in us that Santa Clause does exist, AKA this Michigan team can actually beat a high powered, top 10 ranked Big Ten opponent on the road.
  • JH has other plans.  Losing to PSU bad, but turn overs more bad, so JH goes vanilla to focus on minimizing turn overs rather than beating PSU, with great results.
  • As further evidence JH likely started taking beta blockers in the last year or two, he robotically shows no emotion the entire game, staring off in the distance quite a bit.
  • Utter hamblasting reminiscent of (but not quite as bad as) Wisconsin ensues. 
  • Our players stare in wide wonder as PSU provides Gattis and Patterson a master class in QB keep execution and speed in space courtesy little KJ the Hamburgler. 
  • Despite JH's vanilla efforts, we have at least 2 turn overs, with staunch BPONERS expecting no less than 3. 
  • Shea is sacked 6+ times.
  • Score is laughable heading mid way into the third Q when JH finally plays McCaffrey or Milton.
  • UM scores some garbage time points to add a touch of respectability - Wiisconsin déjà vu. 
  • PSU fans celebrate in the stands like they're winning the NC. 
  • That among those celebrants are thousands of JoPa apologists makes even the most resilient UM fans unable to stomach watching the last 5 minutes of the game.
  • We turn the tv off and progress to this familiar mental exercise of weighing alternative activities for Michigan football Saturdays knowing full well we'll be right back in these seats and sofas, strapped in as loyal fans of a time whose past excellence we still take pride in.
  • We take comfort that our friend the BPONE made us the wiser.  When reality matches expectations, the frustration is not quite so bad.

Comments

UMDWolve

October 13th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^

Penn State looked pretty beatable in their game against Iowa.  When we inevitably come out flat and lose this game, it's going to be a bloodbath on the board.

CLord

October 13th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^

Don't forget the impact of road night games on all teams not Ohio State.  Penn State is much like us in that they are good 20 points better at home vs on the road in big games.

Not to mention, PSU's offense looked explosive and dynamic, and they were repeatedly dogged by the refs on several pretty blatantly bad calls such as that overturned TD that was actually very much a TD.

Teeba

October 14th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^

RE: PSU-Iowa transitivity.

Weren’t we +4 in turnover margin against Iowa? And we still only won by 7 at home.

 I have zero expectations for Saturday night. I think it’s much better for me to be pleasantly surprised than think this will finally be the time we get that “can’t beat a ranked team on the road” monkey off our back.

username03

October 13th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^

Nah, that's not how it's going to go down. It's going to be a rock fight. Looks a bit like neither team really wants to win, Frames doing Frames things, Harbaugh doing Harbaugh things. Poor clock management at the end of the first half leads to a swing in the score. It's a tie game almost throughout.

Michigan gets the ball in their own territory with 4-5 minutes left on the clock in a 17-17 game. They start a nice drive, mix the run and the pass, maybe even a Shea keep, and make it to the PSU 30. They proceed to run the ball up the middle 3 straight times, gain 4 yards, and eat most of the clock. As usual this strategy does not pay off as one of our kickers misses the game winning 43 yard FG. Overtime we go.

PSU gets the ball first, doesn't really do anything, and kicks a FG. On Michigan's first offensive play, a masterful call, DPJ is wide open on a wheel route...

But Shea overthrows him, we run the ball up the middle twice in a row, gain 3 yards, and bring on the other FG kicker. Frames calls TO as our now preferred kicker boots it right down the middle. We all know what happens next. After the game, Frames is hailed as a genius for successfully iceing our kicker.

The Mad Hatter

October 13th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^

If we score first we win. The defense is good enough to keep them in check and the offense has to stop fumbling and turning the ball over at some point, right?

I think it will be a close game, either way it goes.

JPC

October 13th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^

Franklin sucks and our defense is getting good. I don’t see a blowout, but I also don’t see an enjoyable watching experience. 

Either team could win... or lose. 

Maize4Life

October 13th, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^

Im not confident at ALL in fact very pessimistic..Turnovesr and STUPID PENALTIES , lack of that Killer instinct, Sheas passing game where he doesnt THROW the ball he shot puts it..Unless theyve been hiding something I think we get pasted

Soulfire21

October 13th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^

Maybe it’s close around half time but I don’t really see it ending any other way but a Penn State blowout. Other coaching staffs make adjustments and ours appear incapable of doing so, so even if we show a little bit of life in the first half on the offensive side of the ball, that’ll change after the halftime as Franklin and Co. make adjustments and we continue to “impose our will” or whatever it is we do.

It won’t help that we will probably fumble about 4 times.

ALeafOnTheWind

October 13th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^

My predictions have been pretty bad lately, but:

PSU 34, Michigan 10

Night road game in Happy Valley. Michigan's D holds up fine for a quarter, but continued offensive mistakes and ineptitude bleed over into the defense and PSU starts building a solid lead in the second quarter. Floodgates open in the third quarter, and most of the fourth is just trading meaningless possessions.

Hopefully this works out like my Iowa prediction and we win a rock fight. I have zero hope we score a lot of points.

The Fugitive

October 13th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^

The team is wired to be scared shitless in these environments and it comes from the top. They'll hang around for a while by virtue of PSU not having many opportunities at the time. Offense will fail to consistently move the ball, defense will eventually break.

27-11 Penn State. 

The Pharaoh of Filth

October 13th, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^

Im not understanding all the James Franklin Sux BS around here, but then again, it is a Michigan board, so the superiority complex goes on unchecked

I mean, Harbaugh is great?????

I think it is time to admit something about the Big 10--it might not be a top heavy conference--let us face facts that after Ohio State there is considerable dropoff to the rest of the conference.

But Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan are all real solid teams that have their strengths. I would take Iowas defense in a heartbeat--that is a stellar group. Offensively they are very limited. With a Jonathan Taylor at running back, theyd be unbeaten right about now. BUT they do not do IFS (only in Michigan are IFS allowed) so Iowa has a couple losses.

Wisconsin is a notch below OSU but above everyone else, pretty far I think. One cannot debunk anything they are doing this year. They have three shutouts and held Michigan to 14 garbage points.

Penn State is all around solid. Gelling as a team and Franklin is doing a great job this year. They were jobbed a couple times last night but Iowa played well and that was a HELL of a game.

Michigan is all around solid--but like many, I cannot figure that team out. It really does seem like coaching is holding this team back, but hard to tell now because of that game last night--Iowa is for real. However, the Army, Wisconsin and Illinois games do not lie.

I think Minnesota is good.

Michigan State is, as usual, bi-polar, but sneaks up on people.

I like the conference this year, its been a fun season to watch so far.

Except if you hate Ohio State of course.

At home, at night, I do not think Michigan has a chance. I see Penn State all the way.

So, naturally, bet on Michigan. Big. If Michigan history tells me anything, it is that occasionally when you think they are dead, something mystical and magical can happen.

Eng1980

October 13th, 2019 at 9:15 PM ^

Franklin had at least 10 players in the transfer portal last year.  Many of these players were starters.  That indicates that his players don't like him or his system.  

He is starting 2 freshman and playing 2 more freshman because the upperclassmen left.  He had a chance to beat OSU last year but botched timeout management and play calling.  He is 1-3 against Michigan.  His one victory came at home with Michigan starting a backup QB.  

He only lately starting giving others credit.  At no point in his earlier years did any PSU difficulties occur because the other team showed up and played well.  

Franklin's mighty Vanderbilt run occurred without beating a top 40 team.

Bo Harbaugh

October 13th, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^

We come out with a nice drive.  Shea makes a couple nice throws off the rollout and we have a few nice Haskins/Charbonette runs to drive down to the PSU 28. 

We then decide to run it up the middle for a loss of 2, and this is then followed by 2 incompletions, 1 on a late out nearly intercepted by PSU, and the second on a near sack pressure that even if caught, would be 5 yards short of the 1st down.

We are forced into kicking a long FG which is never close.  Momentum completely shifts in the stadium and the White Out is in full effect - stadium is rocking. Players start to look rattled on the sidelines, Harbaugh stares blankly onto the field with mouth half open.

PSU takes over, and Don Brown and the defense stuff the run on 1st down, give up a short 3 yard pass to Hamler on 2nd down, and then choose to run man-man defense on 3rd down- and with good coverage, but Clifford frustratingly escapes the pocket for a 1st down on an 8 yard run.

PSU proceeds to march down the field on a bunch of dink and dunk passing and screens, gashing 7-8 yard runs, and finally a 25 yard Hamler screen play that goes for a TD and gets the stadium euphoric.

The rest of the game is essentially meaningless as we can never put together a consistent drive, but we might as well discuss.  We make a couple big pass plays, but none are explosive enough to go for TD's.  We continue to turn it over immediately after anything positive (like a first down) happens, once with a Shea fumble, later with a Shea pick, and a WR (guessing Ronnie Bell this game) fumbles with a strip from a defender he doesn't see coming from behind - on one of the few plays where Shea had time and delivered a good ball over the middle for a 20 yardish type gain.

PSU then manages to score on a couple big plays on their next two drives - 1 is a long run (around 45 yards), another a 30 yardish pass to their tight end for a TD. At half time it is 21-6, but we have only been out-gained by like 30 yards and the announcers try to talk up how the game should actually be closer (but for the turnovers and lack of finishing drives) so the audience doesn't change the channel.

Many UM fans attempt to convince themselves that if "just if" we could finish off drives and not turn the ball over we can still come back - We are playing these guys "even" on the road after all.

Harbaugh and staff make no half time adjustments, and we don't take many if any shots downfield to our big receivers.  PSU, however, makes some nice half-time adjustments to get their receivers open on some drag routes and drive down for a workman like TD to make it 28-6.  We follow that with a 3 and out, and PSU then has a big play in special teams ( a partial punt block or big punt return).  They cash in on the momentum with a couple Clifford 10-15 yard runs, and his first real nice pass of the night (now that he is playing completely confident and free) on an out that leads to a 27 yard TD.  We are now down 35-6 as we head to the 4th, and the board is melting down, yelling FIRE HARBAUGH.

The rest of the game is a run the clock out operation for PSU, with a few gashing runs, but our defense mostly holds them after they gain 1 or 2 first downs on each possession.  We score one garbage time TD, with Shea still inexplicably still in the game, despite the fanbase begging for the half-time benching. 

35-13 Final

3 or 4 UM turnovers to just 1 for PSU

Total yardage: PSU 370-ish, UM 350-ish

Fanbase can't understand how we keep getting our doors blown off on the road, but some hold on to false hopes due to the small yardage discrepancy and the team showing "signs" of improvement.

Roy G. Biv

October 13th, 2019 at 9:40 PM ^

The pessimist in me foresees the standard M road game against a good team.  Come out flat and conservative on offense.  When opportunities are there, cuts and blocks will be missed, passes overthrown, and catches dropped.  Lots of punts.  Defense will have a spectacular blunder or two to give away points.  Maybe a morbidly bad call by the officials that hamstrings Michigan.  Despite that, M will still be within shouting distance early in the 2nd half, but offensive ineptitude will eventually force the defense to tire, at which point PSU pulls away for an easy win 

Icehole Woody

October 14th, 2019 at 6:43 AM ^

Watched the PSU @Iowa game.  Michigan can  beat the Nitts if the defense plays like they did against Iowa and the offense does not turn the ball over.  Shea needs to throw jump balls to Michigan’s big WRs.

UMProud

October 14th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^

We fumble the ball at key times which PSU will, of course, recover and score on.

Shea will probably get knocked out of the game from missed OL assignments.

We'll stall in the red zone most times and then miss the FG attempts.

The refs will always call key penalties in PSU's favor.

90% of PSU's offense will be crossing routes...that work of course.

PSU will use misdirection all day to suck our defense in.

Wide open M receivers in the end zone will be invisible.

One, or two, of our OL will be knocked out of the game.

Most of our throws will be high or just out of reach.

PSU will ignore downfield receivers and scheme to keep our QB scrambling all day.

More fumbles.

M will call a trick play that everyone watching on TV figures out.

Lipstick will be applied in JH's post game comments with critical self assessments with the wrap up being "onward".

Players will tell us how great everything was in practice prior to the game.

That's all I got....hello BPONE my old old and not very dear friend....