Best:  Same As It Ever Was

It was mentioned in the game recap and on various social media platforms, it was mentioned during the broadcast, and it’s likely something you all noticed throughout the game but this this felt like a lot of recent Michigan games – Michigan played superior football but an opponent hung around for a while because of some good fortune, a couple of fluky plays, and/or some other non-repeatable events for a while until Michigan dropped the hammer and pulled away.  It happened in Bloomington, where the Hoosiers went into halftime tied with Michigan as both teams blocked short FGs and otherwise played even yardage-wise for a half.  It was followed by PSU, where Michigan enjoyed a mere 16-14 advantage midway through despite outgaining the Nittany Lions 304 to 88 because of one 62-yard run by Clifford and a Plinko-esque pick-6.  Michigan only led 13-7 vs. MSU two weeks later because Keon Coleman mossed and pushed his way over solid defense for a TD while Michigan repeatedly kicked FGs in the red zone (despite again outgaining the Spartans 240-164).  And then against the Rutgers Michigan actually trailed at halftime 17-14 in large part because of a punt block for a TD by the Scarlet Knights and two missed 50-yard FGs by normally-money Jake Moody. 

And you know how all those games ended – Michigan thoroughly beat those four opponents in the second half by a combined score of 100-3, with an average yardage differential of 240-81 (!).  And even that’s a bit misleading because PSU picked up 186 yards in the 2nd half, including a bunch after Michigan has taken a significant lead.  Michigan held IU (44 yards), MSU (48 yards), and Rutgers (47) all under 50 yards of total offense in the second half (I’m not including penalties nor defensive scores) and never once did it feel like those teams had much of a plan once Michigan stopped whatever had worked for them in the first half.  I’m loathe to assign too much to “second half adjustments” in games where the success metrics for your opponent are low-probability events (special teams mistakes, defensive scores, fade routes and long QB runs, etc.) but it’s hard to deny that Michigan does what good teams do – they take your best punch, absorb it, and adapt to it while daring you to try something else. 

What’s lost a bit in this second-half domination is that UM wasn’t playing poorly in the first half.  As noted above they had outgained all but IU in the first half as well (and the Hoosiers only held a 222-221 yard advantage) and 14 of the 48 points they had surrendered in those first 8 quarters were from a defensive score and a blocked punt.  They hadn’t played poorly by any particular definition of the word, only their opponents had strung together a series of high-leverage, low-repeatability advantages into the first 30 minutes of football games.  Now, that can and does happen in football and credit to teams like PSU and Rutgers for taking advantage of miscues but more times than not it felt like Michigan was playing with their food or, perhaps in the case of Rutgers, not done all of their studying prior to the test.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Drain/status/1589063978550165504

So that’s the key takeaway from this game like it has been for the past 4, and you could see it happening in real time even when the score didn’t reflect the domination.  Michigan was the significantly better team in all three facets but they aren’t infallible (and there really isn’t a team like that this year outside maybe Georgia), and so teams are able to hang around with them for a bit if they get a couple of breaks or do something Michigan doesn’t expect.  IU and Rutgers sold out against the run and had some success disrupting the ground game for spurts, while MSU and PSU were able to crack some big plays against the defense (especially the safeties and linebackers) for chunk plays.  I’ve noted this a couple of times over the years but it felt not unlike watching those early Rich Rod teams that would come out firing in a half and then not have any way to pivot when the opponent adjusted.  The canonical example to this day remains 2008 Michigan versus then-#3 PSU in Happy Valley, a game where Michigan actually led at halftime 17-14 because they unleashed MINOR RAGE on these epic 10+ play TD drives while PSU wound up turning the ball over and missed FGs.  Minor had barely carried the ball coming into the game (13 total carries over the previous 6 games) but exploded for 23, 117, and 2 TDs, with 84 and both TDs coming in the first half.  But then PSU adjusted and Michigan barely moved the ball in the second half (94 total yards, 44 on a drive down 17-46) while also failing to slow down PSU offensively.  UM winning that game that year would have been a far greater upset than if Rutgers had pulled off the game last night, and that’s why upsets tend to be so rare.

Now, I’d love to weave you some deeper narrative out of this game, how Michigan discovered some deep reserve of fortitude and dynamic devil-may-care playcalling to comfortably beat Rutgers in this game but that’s not reality.  I’m sure there was some fire and brimstone delivered at halftime but the sentiment was likely along the lines of “stop messing around and just play like the better team” and that’s what happened.  I described Michigan last week as a bit of a boa constrictor, content to let teams squirm as they slowly squeezed the life out of them for 4 quarters, and by the time Michael Barrett intercepted Gavin Wimsatt’s second straight pass and returned it for a TD you could see the life leave the Scarlet Knights and it turned from “upset alert” to “not in the face”.  And honestly, my guess is that at least Nebraska, if not also Illinois, will likely follow a similar script and at some point we as UM fans will just need to accept that slow-motion blowouts are blowouts nonetheless and just enjoy the ride.

Worst:  Fading

If there’s been on semi-consistent weakness on the defense these past couple of games has been their (relative) struggles defending fades and related “YOLO throws so your receiver can fight for it” passes.  Now, we’re talking about a handful of completions in games that, again, Michigan is winning by between a bunch and a buttload, but if there’s a nit to pick it’s that the secondary has allowed some long completions on low-percentage throws.  Against MSU it was because defenders like Paige and Barrett initially failed to keep proper depth on passes to Coleman, while against Rutgers the Scarlet Knights were able to complete throws to Ryan and Cruickshank for big gains by somewhat-desperately launching moonballs and watching their receivers pull them down.  Some of this success is simply the nature of the throw; fades are an inherently low-percentage throw generally but when they work they tend to be significant yardage generators.  In this game the first completed fade to Ryan was successful not so much because he beat Turner (who was still close) but because Paige (?) was behind the play and not over the top, allowing Ryan to high-point the ball without someone trying to bat it down.  A similar play happened on Coleman’s TD last weekend, where Paige was slow to react.  In both games Michigan made adjustments and neither QB is accurate or consistent enough to make those types of throws with any frequency, but it’s jarring that a throw Michigan seems almost morally against throwing is having success against this otherwise-stout secondary. 

Best:  Do It Again, This Time With Feeling

Much was made of Michigan’s relative struggles in the red zone these past couple of weeks, with the Wolverines barely scoring TDs on half their trips in and generally running a pretty uncreative offense when they did.  Well, Michigan seemingly made a point to double down on the complaints by running 8 times from within the 10 on their first two drives to score TDs, both times barely converting on 4th-and-1 runs to score.  In the moment I noticed a number of people annoyed with the entire process, especially since Rutgers has a solid defense and were clearly selling out to stop the run.  Blake Corum may well be the best running back we’ve in these parts for decades but the laws of physics do still sometimes apply to him and thus throwing him at defenders isn’t necessarily the most effective way of scoring.  A play-action pass, some safe fade, hell even a toss sweep would have spiced it up but that clearly wasn’t on the table.  Michigan under Harbaugh has a plan and they don’t want to deviate from it unless necessary, especially in games like this one where the opponent is overmatched.  And let’s be honest, most teams are like this. 

It’s been noted to death this year that Purdue probably would have a couple more wins if they could run the ball effectively when up late; they lost their game against Penn State because instead of running the ball and bleeding clock up 3 with under 6 minutes to play they threw the ball 12 straight times and only burned off about 3 minutes of clock time, giving Clifford enough time for the rally.  Ohio State struggled against NW this weekend because the weather was terrible for throwing the ball and the Buckeyes took nearly 4 quarters to adapt and establish something of a consistent ground presence.  And Illinois lost to MSU this weekend in no small part because they want to lean on their opponents with a single-back-focused running game and that’s one of the few types of offense MSU is set up to defend reasonably well.  College teams have limited time and resources to “customize” their styles for specific opponents; practically speaking they seemingly have a couple of opponents they specifically gameplan for and the others they maybe throw a couple in some wrinkles and make adjustments but week-to-week they focus on executing what their “base” is and hoping/expecting that to be better than what their opponents can do.  It doesn’t always work and may well be hilariously ill-equipped (see the last couple of Don Brown defenses) but the strictures of football don’t allow for anything else.  It’s largely why bowl games tend to feature team performances that look so atypical from the last time fans saw those squads; they’ve had weeks to prepare for just that opponent and have been able to install proper offensive and defensive schemes to gum them up.

Michigan is going to be a run-first, run-second, maybe even run-third team if the defense allows for it.  I think some of that is trying to insulate McCarthy as a QB and an acknowledgement that the wide receivers are somewhat limited as a unit (this was yet another week with limited downfield success), but a much bigger part is that it works and, somewhat serendipitously, it’s a bit “exotic” in today’s college football landscape.  Everything old is new again, and as the sport assimilated the Rich Rod/Urban Meyer/Hal Mumme types of offenses into everyday parlance (e.g. almost every team runs a ton of plays from the shotgun, RPOs and read-option runs part of most playbooks, 4+ receiver formations with “flex” TEs are pretty common) defenses have become faster and smaller to compensate; Mike Sainristil would likely still be a slot ninja and Michael Barrett would be stuck in non-man’s land positionally 20-30 years ago instead of being integral parts of a top defense now.  But as a result a team like Michigan, which loves to throw different wrinkles at defenses on the ground and has found consistent success running duo all year because they can just deposit tackles and nose guards 3-4 yards downfield, is able to roughhouse over teams even when the opponent knows what’s coming. 

Rutgers absolutely sold out to stop the run in this game, as for all of Greg Schiano’s flaws the guy knows how to field a competent defense.  And while the announcers made a point of noting how the Rutgers defense “held up” near the goal line Michigan was still able to consistently pick up yardage.  On the day Corum and Edwards each finished with 109 yards and, perhaps just as impressively, only lost a total of 4 yards on 35 carries.  Last year’s game got tense because Michigan tried running their preferred offense but struggled to consistently get a push up front in the second half; Michigan barely cracked 100 yards in that game and had a long run of 13.  This weekend?  They had long runs of 12, 14, 26, 28, 43, and 46 yards, and that didn’t even include a 33 TD run that was nullified by a whatever penalty.  Yes, Rutgers held Michigan to a number of short runs but the chunks were there are Michigan was able to take advantage of them.  It’s the offense they wanted to run and they were highly successful at it.  At this point in the year it’s working and working really well, and while I fully expect Michigan to be able to pivot if necessary until someone forces them to I don’t see why they’d shake anything up.

And for the record, a week after scoring only 2 TDs in 5 RZ trips, Michigan found the endzone on 6 of their 7 trips inside the 20.

Best:  Throwing the Ball

I’ve been critical of McCarthy and this passing offense for a while because it does feel like the WRs are just a collection of guys and McCarthy has struggled to calibrate the downfield throwing lanes when his receivers aren’t blindingly wide open.  In this game Michigan was without Roman Wilson and so only threw deep a couple of times.  One was an early rollout to Bell for 40-ish yards, and another was a first-quarter throw to Andrel Anthony that was both a bit too long and also made more difficult by Anthony seemingly slowing down a step despite having beaten the defense.  So that remains a bit of an issue that at this point probably won’t be fully resolved in-season.  But unlike in weeks past I thought McCarthy was making some solid intermediate and even deeper throws that his receivers failed to bring in or were simply well defended.  There was a throw down the sideline that probably should have been brought in, and he did have a really nice throw to Edwards in the back of the endzone to open the scoring in the second half that was rifled into a tight spot.  The offense (and the game flows) are generally not asking McCarthy to do a ton in the air but when pressed he’s handling those responsibilities well while also using his legs judiciously.  That gives me some optimism that Michigan could hang in a shootout if asked to, at least for a while.

Best:  Weirdly No Fighting

A week after, you know, it was almost surreal seeing Rutgers deliver some hard hits on guys (a couple getting dangerously close to flagrant) and everyone just sort of handle it like adults.  This was a game where absolutely you could have seen some chirping and some shoving but instead Michigan and Rutgers just played a football game and then walked off the field at its completion without extending the violence.  And it’s not like Greg Schiano and Jim Harbaugh are known as famously chill dudes.  Anyway, just something I noticed.

Worst:  Not-So-Special Teams

The punt block was just a good call by Rutgers; they must have seen something in Michigan’s blocking that queued them in they could loop a guy around and get a free run at Robbins.  As for the 2 missed FGs those are 50 yarders into a bit of wind so I’m not particularly bothered by it but still a bit weird after Moody was seemingly automatic from that distance all year.  But it wasn’t a banner day for the special teams, with an exception to them handling the surprise onside kick pretty well and not allowing Rutgers to steal another possession in a game that was still a bit squirrelly. 

Quick Hits:

• This is more holistic but the Big 10 is so fucking weird.  MSU didn’t even play particularly well but Illinois turned the ball over on downs something like 4 times and let that Spartan offense move the ball a bit, which is how you lose a game 23-15 despite outgaining your opponent by 150 yards (441 to 294) and said opponent inexplicably throwing on 3rd down in the red zone (failing to burn valuable clock) up 8 and then missing the short FG.  I guess I understand Tucker properly recognizing how bad his FG kicker is and wanting to score but still a crazy decision.  Iowa (yes Iowa!) beat Purdue 24-3 on the road and put up nearly 400 yards of total offense in the process.  Spencer Petras averaged 8.3 ypa and threw for 2 TDs in a row.  Pure insanity.  And Ohio State ran into their kryptonite for 3 quarters, namely inclement weather, and struggled to put away an absolutely terrible NW team.  And yes, I absolutely recognize that 40+ MPH winds make it hard to complete passes, but that still doesn’t excuse the fact that NW’s backup QB looked better throwing the ball than Stroud did in the same conditions.  The one scary part, I guess, is that Stroud did run the ball a bit as a result and didn’t look terrible at it, though on the other hand it certainly didn’t feel like a play Ryan Day wanted to rely on and relied heavily on surprise.  Still, just a weird weekend for the conference overall.
• Michigan didn’t record a ton of sacks in this game because Rutgers really couldn’t get going offensively but I thought the line played well throughout.  At one point Rutgers only had 1 yard on the ground and finished the day with 14, and a couple of those picks were as much pressure turnovers as good defensive plays by Barrett and Johnson.  I’m interested to see how they look against Nebraska next weekend as at least under Frost they tried a lot of different things to get the ball moving offensively and last year’s game was one where it felt like the defensive line got worked over more than you’d expect.

Next Week:  Nebraska

I expect this to be another boring win with some annoyances at times.  Minnesota beat the Huskers but didn’t plow them on the ground (less than 3 ypc on 45 attempts) but were able to move the ball somewhat effectively in the air.  Casey Thompson didn’t play in this game but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s back against Michigan.  He’s probably the best passer in the Big 10 West, which says a whole lot about the quality of that division, but if so that’s a different type of test for this defense.  It feels way less satisfying to beat the Huskers without Scott Frost on the sideline being angry the whole time but ah well, you can’t always get what you want.