Best and Worst: Iowa

Submitted by bronxblue on October 7th, 2019 at 1:32 AM

I got a late jump on this post because...life. So it's not going to be excessive long or particularly funny (if mine ever are). But hey, I promise it'll be less stressful than watching the game. So that's a thing.

Best: The Not-So-Wayback

You always hear that the internet is a permanent record of our digital lives, an indelible tome chronicling our transgressions and triumphs. And there's a growing concern that it's starting to dull our ability to remember the past and replace it with search terms we'll use to find the answer. But the stark reality about the internet is that it doesn't have a particularly good memory; lots of information gets lost every day as servers go down, people delete old accounts, algorithms are tweaked, and services that seemed omnipresent (seemingly everyone had an Angelfire or GeoCities page) fade away into the oblivion. The internet is a mile wide and an inch deep, and more times than not it's going to be hard to recover what was lost.

That's a big reason why I think sites like the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine deserve a ton more attention than they get. It's a really simple service (it basically stores cached versions of websites at various times, leading to over 380 billion unique pages currently saved for future reference), but it's pretty amazing and is well worth your time if you want to find a seemingly long-lost site or simply want to chuckle at what we considered good web design a mere decade or two ago. And it's particularly great because it gives you a chance to see a snapshot of what people were thinking at the time, unfiltered by revisionist history or selective editing.

The first recorded version of mgoblog.com featured a discussion about Les Miles definitely not taking over for Lloyd Carr, a brief recruiting discussion about Darryl Stonum, and a reference to Tony Toni Tone that was short one Tonee? But you could see the DNA of the site's identity even then (which makes sense, as it had existed in various incarnations before), and other than a couple of cosmetic face-lifts it has mostly stayed the same. Michigan was grappling with problems that have plagued them really for decades, a crisis of sorts between figuring out what the program could be and what it is. Every decision felt somewhat fraught because college football, at its very nature, feels like a couple of key moments interspersed with rote action. Winning a title versus playing in a secondary bowl can come down to a handful of plays and a couple of inches. And so as fans you find yourself analyzing every possible decision because they feel like they should all be interconnected, and one misstep will cause the tsunami that sinks your season.

The reason I bring this up is that I've seen a lot of people complaining that this year is just a rehash of 2013, where the wheels really started to come off Brady Hoke's regime and Michigan was the least impressive 5-1 team after narrowly beating a mediocre Akron and a terrible UConn. Then the infamous 27-for-27 against PSU happened and the season spiraled out of control. It was a team plagued by an inconsistent offense and a defense that wasn't up to carrying the load. Tell me if you've heard this story already.

But that team isn't all that similar to this one despite the (false) presumption that Michigan has played down to their competition. Devin Gardner remains one of the most "what if?" players in Michigan's history, an athletic marvel who was saddled with the worst part of the RR era and the Hoke morass. Jeremy Gallon was an anomaly, a sprite who could jump out of the gym and was nicknamed "Rocket boots" by the end of the year. The team couldn't run to save their lives despite somehow recording 27 rushing TDs, and they averaged 8.4 ypa because Indiana (and to a lesser extent OSU) lost their damn minds. But it was a deeply flawed team, one that couldn't really get to the QB (only 25 sacks on the year), get people behind the line (only 5 TFLs a game), or stop guys in the air (66th in passing yardage allowed). Heck, the survived as much on turnovers as anything else.

That season felt like a slog as soon as they scraped by Akron, but you could see the signs coming as early as that ND game. Gardner threw an awful pick-6 and, for all his magic, was running for his life more than you'd have hoped. Tommy Rees (yes, that Tommy Rees) threw for over 300 yards, and it was probably not a good sign that Michigan's top 3 tacklers were all in the secondary.

Anyway, I don't know if Michigan's 2019 season is going to ultimately turn out record-wise like that 2013's squad. They definitely have a tougher road to travel this year than in 2013, where they got a couple of great teams (MSU and OSU) and a whole lotta floatsam beyond them.  This year Michigan will likely play at least 4 top-10 teams before the end of the year, and even teams like MSU and Indiana look dangerous.  But what stuck out in 2013, as it did in 2007, was this foreboding sense of doom, that bad decisions had been made and Michigan was going to have to scramble to compensate for them. In 2007 it was the notion that Carr left a year too late; in 2013 it was coming to grips with the fact that the guy with a career .500 record as a HC really had just caught a bunch of breaks in 2011 and was profoundly mediocre beyond that. I know people will argue against this characterization because of his struggles in "big games" (read: against OSU), but Jim Harbaugh has put Michigan in a far better and more stable position than they've been basically since the middle of the Carr era. He's recruiting well, the team is generally winning, and he's seemed willing to change and shake up parts of the team that don't seem to be working. Bringing in Josh Gattis and handing large swaths of the offense over to him wasn't a given, as we've seen lots of coaches fail to relinquish some control when the walls close in. To his credit, Harbaugh is trying to fix this team's offensive woes, and as I've said numerous times what's killed Michigan for years is a lack of continuity and consistency in approach.

So maybe Michigan finishes 8-4 this year; it wouldn't be a shocker. Hell, 7-5 is on the table if things go sideways. But this program doesn't feel like it did in years past, and while where it is maybe not be where it should be to some fans, that doesn't change that calculus.

Best: Don Brown Did a Thing

After Wisconsin eviscerated Michigan's front 7, you couldn't throw a stone without hitting someone who wanted to can Don Brown. And that isn't to say the comments about the defense overall were all wrong; there remains issues with defensive line depth that they've had to paper over with the little Glasgow that probably shouldn't and a former fullback-turned DT-turned back to FB (?). Some of that is due to recruiting misses (both Hudson and Paea either aren't on the team or at tackle), others to player attrition (I don't blame players for leaving, but I'm wonder if Solomon is second-guessing his decision a bit as he struggles to break through on a bad UT line), and some is bad luck (Dwumfour just now getting healthy has a made a world of difference). But it also felt a bit like a perfect storm against Wisconsin, as the offense scuttled and the Badgers got a couple of breaks, and then it was just a steady diet of big linemen and a Heisman Trophy-worthy player running behind it.

But since then, Michigan has totaled two ground Rutger and pulled off two turnover Rutger to boot. Caveats aside about last week's opponent, that's still incredibly impressive to go from seemingly not having answers defensively to rather emphatically smashing two teams. And Iowa, warts and all, was a top-30 offense per SP+ (30th) coming into the game, and was coming off a game where they ran for an average of 7 yards per carry on 51 rushes. Yes, SP+ (like any metric) can have some weird outliers (witness Oregon having the #1 defense and #56 offense in the country six weeks into the season), but this was still an offense in Iowa featuring at least 1 first-round tackle (Jackson played but was limited), a couple fine WRs, and a QB who can absolutely make tough throws when he isn't turfing balls under duress. Iowa got the same number of first downs (2) rushing as they did via penalty, and even one of those felt like a bit of a gift. Michigan also picked up 8 sacks as part of their 13 TFLs, and truth be told they'd probably have gotten at least one or two more had Nate Stanley not done his best Ben Rothlies-whatever (sans off-the-field activities) and thrown the ball with multiple defenders draped over him. Stanley's undoubtedly overrated (he was at one point a preseason first round draft choice before reality set in), but Michigan's defense still dominated him in a way that is somewhat opponent agnostic, picking him off 3 times and hitting him constantly (6 QB hits). They even forced Iowa to commit 3 holding penalties, which I believe equalled their total for the season up to that point.

And the hits came from all across the defense. After collecting 2.5 sacks in about a half of football, Kwity Paye went out with what looked like a hamstring injury...and Michigan seemingly didn't miss a beat. Michael Danna slid right in picked up another sack. Cam McGrone shook off a rough first half (Stanley had some early success picking on him with guys out of the backfield or running short crossing routes), but once he downloaded the Iowa gameplan he repeatedly pressured Stanley while keeping Iowa gains to a minimum. Jordan Glasgow consistently got free runs at Stanley and made them count, picking up 2 thunderous sacks and finishing second on the team in tackles. Hell, Carlo Kemp maybe had the best performance by a DT in the past couple of seasons (he was absolutely eating up Iowa's interior linemen for long stretches of the game) and my guess is a lot of people barely noticed. I mean, even if you throw out the lost sack yardage Iowa averaged exactly 3 ypc on 22 runs and Stanley got his 260 yards throwing the ball 42 times (for 6.2 ypa). Will this wipe the taste of Wisconsin out of anyone's mouth? Unlikely. But I'm certainly more optimistic about how they'll fare against teams like Notre Dame (24th in offense per SP+) and MSU (62nd) than I was a week ago.

Meh: The Offense

I'm going to be a contrarian here and say the offense legitimately looked like it was making solid strides against what is a very good (if unspectacular) defense. Yes, Jim Harbaugh is probably trolling a bit when he says he thinks the offense is hitting its stride, as 10 points in any game is rarely a sign your team is firing on all cylinders. But I re-watched this game and there were a number of times where a play here, a play there turns what was a nail-biter into a blowout and we aren't having as many existential conversations about the state of the program. I know Iowa players said they didn't make adjustments to the pass defense, and I guess if your philosophy is "zone them hard and grab anyone who tries to get away", then in broad strokes that's probably correct. But Michigan still ground down the field at a decent clip (4.1 ypc after you excise sacks, kneel-downs, and whatever happened during that DPJ play), and perhaps most importantly stayed ahead of the sticks consistently (Iowa only picked up 4 TFLs, and two of those came on sacks and a third was the aforementioned DPJ play). Iowa's one of the worst teams in the country in generating tackles behind the line, but as we've seen past performance does not remotely portend future results. And heck, Patterson actually kept the ball on a couple of plays and picked up a couple of first downs in the process.

Yes, it was infuriating to see Michigan have success throwing to Nico Collins deep that one time (even though Iowa had it pretty well covered) and then seemingly abandoning it for most of the game, though in a couple of instances when they did try to stretch the field Iowa had it well-covered and Patterson was forced to move around a bit or check off to another receiver or a back. There are obvious counters to that defense and it took Michigan more time than you'd like to deploy counters, but after looking lost for long stretches to start this year it looked like a team with a pulse offensively.

Like most, I came into the season expecting fireworks in the passing game and a competent rushing attack behind a veteran line. That hasn't happened yet, and while there's always a hope of a second-half awakening there's a ton of defenses between now and then to muck that up. Most of my concerns were defensively, as Michigan lost a ton of talent and had to replace it with unproven players. Thus far, sans the Wisconsin game, the defense has been about as good as we've come to expect from Don Brown. But the offense still feels like it's figuring out something approximating an identity, and you saw it during those couple of drives when Patterson was moving around, receivers were getting a step on the defender, and the line was opening up lanes for guys like Wilson and Charbonnet to smash through. This is going to sound like sunshine-from-the-ass optimism, but it does really feel like an offense that is closing in on another level, and if they can get there I don't see why they can't beat teams like PSU, ND, and MSU.

Best: Where I Defend the Indefensible

As noted earlier I've had issues with Patterson as a QB generally, but I was struck by the level of vitriol directed at him following this game. Did he make some bad throws? Absolutely. That interception should have never been thrown, and as he's wont to do he likely missed a guy or two downfield (though I'll be honest, it didn't seem like any of his receivers were consistently getting separation). The playcalling also put him in some weird positions, as the aforementioned downfield plays didn't seem to be called as often as some hoped, and forcing anyone to dink-and-dunk down the field is a recipe for disappointment. But he also suffered by a couple of crucial drops on first-down throws (both Bell and Black dropped balls that hit them in the hands) and at least one blatant PI that went uncalled near the endzone. And for the first time all season, he ran for a couple of first downs within the flow of the offense, willing taking a couple of shots to get the necessary yardage.

I'll sound like a broken record, but this is Patterson's third offensive coordinator in 4 years. His offensive line has underwhelmed this year, and for all the talk about these NFL WRs I've seen way more dropped passes and (seemingly) bad routes run than you'd expect. This isn't to single out anyone; it's college football, and my general mantra is when a pointy ball meets college students I don't expect perfection. Patterson isn't going to meet the expectations of certain fans; it's a sunk cost if you based your season's prognostications on "Patterson will be a darkhorse Heisman candidate". But taken for what he is, he's making steady strives toward deploying the offense Michigan wants to run, and I'm interested to see how he grades out in UFR.

Worst: Bring Back Shark Boy

In what is apparently this diary's goal to annoy the most people possible, I'm actually going to lament the loss of Jim McElwain. Yes, the guy we all made fun of because someone took a picture of a retired cop who vaguely looked like the former coach humping a shark, and who then didn't find the humor in being asked about a meme (again, of someone humping a dead shark on a boat) during a media day, was actually a pretty good WR coach. Yes, I wouldn't want him as my HC because he was rightfully fired from Florida both for gross incompetence and lying, but as a position coach I think we dismiss just how much of an impact he had on the WRs development last year, and how his absence seems to have stunted some of their growth this season. Far too often, it seems, people assume that positions like WR and RB can be sorta coached "on the side" by someone who is doing some other job to boot. In this case, Josh Gattis is both the OC and (apparently) the primary WR coach. I'm sure there's some synergy there between the two spots, but to be good at both positions takes a lot of time and effort and, I'll be frank, it feels like the receivers have suffered a bit in that time allocation. Per last year's UFR charting, Black, Collins, DPJ, and Bell dropped approximately 6 moderate and routine passes out of 70; those four came into this game having failed to hold onto 6 of those same throws in 48 opportunities. You can certainly quibble at the edges of the scoring, but it's been an offense out of sorts in part because the receivers have failed to hold onto the ball, and in games where Michigan doesn't run a ton of plays (they only ran 58 in this one before the kneel-down), those missteps are magnified.

And yeah, I'm not saying you bring back McElwain, even though he's taken CMU from one of the worst offenses in the country last season to one hanging out near MSU, Cincy, Temple, and other not-terrible schools. But just like how Fred Jackson "coached the running backs" in a very particular interpretation of those words, it does feel like the receivers are sort of stuck in a weird coaching limbo. It was actually refreshing, I guess, to see Gattis chew out Collins a bit for failing to run past the first down marker before his break on Michigan's first FG drive; that's the type of situational awareness that needs to be reinforced at all levels of play, and these players are too talented to not be able to reach their potential. I doubt much will change in-season on that front, but hopefully there will be some re-shuffling of assignments such that a coach (maybe Moore) can give more of his time to this part of the offense.

Quick Hits

  • I know some people were annoyed by Michigan's final drive of the first half, but I was legitimately excited to see them nearly steal 3 points after what looked like a drive destined to just run out the clock. After Haskins picks up 18 yards on 3rd-and-1, nobody would have been surprised if they had simply run out the clock. But instead they threw a ball to DPJ who, honestly, should have ran out of bounds instead of trying to fight for more yards and burning 10-15 seconds off the clock. They then picked up a first down and were in a position to throw a prayer to the endzone. It didn't work out but an Iowa penalty got them one final Nordin FG attempt from 58 yards that missed by only a bit. It was encouraging to see Michigan seize on an opportunity and try to move the ball downfield, and hopefully that continues because stealing possessions/points in some of these upcoming games will be key.
  • Offsetting penalties where one is mostly procedural and two others are rather substantial (personal foul and holding) always drives me crazy, and apparently I'm not alone. I get that you can't "ignore" bad actions by both sides, but Iowa getting another free punt return because somebody got pushed out of bounds and then came back in to make the tackle shouldn't negate what happened during the return. I know it's part of the game and a minor annoyance, but it's like when a team gets a big third-down conversion because the ball was so underthrown the cornerback ran into the receiver. Some context should always be applied to penalties.
  • Michigan picked up 3 holding penalties on Iowa and probably still got robbed a half-dozen more times. The defensive line really worked over the entire Iowa offensive line, and injuries and all that aside they dominated in a way that should be replicable against lines like PSU's and MSU's. And don't look now but Michigan is averaging 3 sacks per game, basically the same number as they had last year and this year they had to deal with playing an Army team that rarely gave them opportunities. Don Brown is absolutely generating a pass rush by different means than last year, but the results remain about the same.
  • Kirk Ferentz didn't have a ton of opportunities to do Four Loco Ferentz things, but that timeout to set up an Oliver Martin "FU" fade was college football at its best.

>

Next Week

It's Illinois. They're probably better than Rutgers, but are also down their starting QB (Peters) and just gave up 333 yards rushing to Minnesota. Hopefully Michigan makes quick work of the Illini and can focus on the following week against PSU; I'd like to see both Milton and McCaffrey get sustained drives if the game is settled early on.

Comments

J.

October 7th, 2019 at 1:56 AM ^

I agree with you on the offsetting penalties.  The NFL used to have a rule where a 15-yard penalty automatically outweighed a 5-yard penalty; I'm not sure if they still do or not. Heck, I'd be all for an "enforce them all" standard, especially on scrimmage kick plays.  (I get that you wouldn't necessarily want to enforce three holding calls and an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty to turn 1st and 10 into 1st and 55. :)

I booed the officials loudly on that play, thinking that they were screwing up the application of the rule (and that it should have been Iowa's ball at the end of the kick), but I just went back and read the rules and they got it correct.  It's the rule that's wrong.

Bo Glue

October 7th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^

Just about everyone in our section booed that call. Maybe the Rules As Written interpretation was correct, but it is just ridiculous that one of the penalties actually endangers a player, and yet that penalty is completely wiped out by something mundane and "procedural". That was a huge bummer.

J.

October 7th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^

Agreed.  It reminds me somewhat of the play last year where somebody committed a personal foul against a Michigan player after there was a holding call downfield.  The penalties "offset," moving the ball back to the original line of scrimmage, even though the holding call was 35 yards downfield (and would have been enforced from that spot).  Thus, the defense got a huge yardage boost from a dirty hit.

canzior

October 8th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^

I always thought personal fouls were enforced regardless of any other foul. I think it should be that way (since apparently is isn't), almost like a technical and a personal in basketball.  Both fouls will apply.  If there's a personal foul on the defense and a holding on offense for example, apply the 10 yard holding & repeat down, then apply the 15 yard personal foul, automatic first down for a net gain of 5 yards essentially.

Other Andrew

October 7th, 2019 at 4:38 AM ^

Nice work as always, Bronx. We're left with no reason for lofty expectations this season. So let's just enjoy it as best we can.  

To your "meh" point about the offense, that 4th Q drive that led to the missed chip-shot felt like the moment when they started to get it all together (or "hit their stride," if one prefers). These were all the plays of that drive:

- 10 yards to Nico

- 2 yards by Turner

- 10 yards to DPJ

- 10 yards to Black

- 8 yards by Tru

- 11 yards by Tru

-  Incomplete

- 3 yards by Tru

- Incomplete

- Missed FG

That's storming down the field before suddenly stalling out. Finish that drive, even with a made FG, and the vibe on this game is rather different. So, they're getting closer.

One more tune-up (please?) and then the season unveils itself. Again, I'm not optimistic this offense is going to be enough to win against the three top remaining teams. But let's see...

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 8:09 AM ^

Yeah, that was a drive where it felt like they should have scored and torn the doors off the game.  And honestly, UM scores a TD there and you could have seen an MSU special, where UM then scores another TD late off a turnover by a desperate Iowa and it's a 24-3 "big" win.

I think they'll need more offense against PSU and OSU.  I'm not sure about ND, which has looked tractable offensively.

S5R48S10

October 7th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^

I think everyone saw that drive and said "yes, that is how i expected this to look."  Shea's 3-step drop, plant and throw was well timed, hitting receivers coming out of their break.  This got the ball out of his hands before the rush could even come close.  This happened 3x that drive.

 

So what was different about that drive than any of the rest?  Why is it not sustainable?

Mongo

October 7th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^

They went back to more of last year's spread offense. These were not zone read option sets.  This series of plays should be Michigan's identity.  Then use zone read option as the constraint, the curveball or change-up.  But the bread-and-butter offense should be what we saw on that drive.  I would like to have seen at least one of those runs turned into a play action pass taking a shot at the EZ looking for Collins or DPJ one-on-one. 

Blue Vet

October 7th, 2019 at 4:45 AM ^

Liking them contrarians. Good job, bronxblue. Somewhere between evidence and hope, I agree with your cautious optimism. The defense has less obvious stars than last year but is obviously producing. The offense may discover a new gear.

And offsetting penalties often feel less than offsetting, a word that suggests approximate equivalence (you pay for the tickets, I'll pay for dinner) though in practice in football, it seems to be a giant joke of the football gods (you want fair? tough noogies).

Brugoblue

October 7th, 2019 at 5:48 AM ^

A voice of reason - well done Bronx. One thing I’ve noticed over the years is that things are never as bad (or good) as they feel at the stadium. Don’t get me wrong - I still grumble at times during games, but really try to hold judgement until I can get home and rewatch it. 

I’m working a theory here - is it possible the frustrations of (apparently many) here on this site are due to the fact that the Lions have been abysmal for 60+ years and we’ve nowhere else to turn???

Michigan Arrogance

October 7th, 2019 at 7:18 AM ^

This is going to sound like sunshine-from-the-ass optimism, but it does really feel like an offense that is closing in on another level, and if they can get there I don't see why they can't beat teams like PSU, ND, and MSU.

 

I mean, wow. I usually agree with your takes but this is fairly insane almost halfway into the season. in non-rutgers games the offense could not have performed worse than what we've seen in 2019. Removing rutgers, they are averaging less than 20 pts/game in regulation. If by, "closing in on another level," you mean "FBS below average offense" (65-80th nationally), OK fine.

The D I agree with you and I'll never understand why so many people get hot about Don Brown. They guy works miracles with and without talent and/or experience on the D. He's only mistake is simplying the D when we realized he could beat other teams 1V1 from a talent perspective in 2018 and that led to the bad OSU game. 

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^

I guess I remember 2015, when the team struggled to throw the ball against awful competition (but were admittedly better running the ball), and how that offense turned itself around as the season progressed.  Again, in the past 3 weeks Michigan has played two top-15 defenses and struggled to move the ball but also showed more life than a lot of people are giving them credit.  That's my opinion and you're allowed to disagree with it.

Hotel Putingrad

October 7th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^

I wholeheartedly agree. This feels more like 2015 Michigan than 2013 Michigan. Now, I still anticipate a loss to OSU, but I can see them pulling out victories against PSU, ND, and MSU.

I think having Tru back helps immensely. He is very patient as a runner and knows how to find a few extra yards. I hope he plays more than Turner going forward.

MonkeyMan

October 7th, 2019 at 5:56 PM ^

I think the D may have been over rated in this game- that Iowa QB was horrible and it made the D look much better than it was. He threw dirt balls, took too long to make decisions, and was slow (both of the last points leading to sacks). Ferentz must have QB's run a dash and then choose the one who falls down.

I think the PSU offense torches these guys in Happy Valley- if not, certainly the OSU offense will. Penn State has some scary receivers and their QB is getting faster at unloading every game- its bombs away, Dresden style.

I am not trying to be a downer but Iowa usually has a crappy offense and it gets much worse on the road. They have played nobody this year and we don't know how bad their final record will be.

The jury is still very much out on this D.

J.

October 7th, 2019 at 8:27 PM ^

Ferentz dialed up 50 (!) pass plays.

That alone should tell you how good the Michigan defense was.  Iowa gave up on running the ball behind either of their two NFL tackles against a defense that was absolutely torched by Wisconsin's running game.

Nate Stanley threw more touchdown passes each of the last two years than any Michigan quarterback in team history.  (That is true.  I did not make that up).

Stanley looked bad in large part because the defense made him look bad.

viewfromalbany

October 7th, 2019 at 7:26 AM ^

Attended the game. Afterward listened to JH’s press conference where he mentioned field position.      When I got home Sunday, watched replay of the game and charted starting yard line for each UM and Iowa possession.  Iowa’s 13 possessions all started at the 20 or better.  7 started at the 30 or better. Of Michigan’s 13 possessions, 4 started inside the 20 (13,4,18,15) forcing conservative play calling.  6 started at the 30 or better.   UM scored on 2 of those 6.   Some takeaways.  UM’s special teams had a bad day.  Failure to have 2 men back led to an Iowa punt rolling out at UM’s 18.  Punt coverage was poor.  Missed short FG.  Another key to field position, that Klatt mentioned on the broadcast, was the 3rd and 22 pass completion by Iowa in the 2nd Q.  As the saying goes “they flipped the field”.  Michigan’s last drive of the 1st half, starting at the 4, was crucial.  Yes, a long field goal was missed (looked like a bad snap) but importantly UM did not have to punt from the end zone.  On the 1st drive of the 2nd half, starting at the 30, UM looked good (just like the end of the 1st half) when Runyon committed his false start putting offense in a 1st & 15 against a very competent defense.  The third drive of the 2nd half started at the 20, but ended with the missed FG.  Yes, some bad plays - interception, DPJ option play where TE fell down come to mind - but I can understand JH’s view that the offense has improved.  PSU will be revealing.

MadMatt

October 7th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^

If I can be really contrarian, we may be seeing our own version of Penn State's magic unicorn B1G Championship. We defenestrated them in what was a perfect storm of our Jeff Fisch offense (esp. creativity in the running attack) against a depleted LB corps in Ann Arbor, like Wisconsin did to us. We get our d-line in order like they got their LBs. We get our heads around a new offense like they did. We get lucky in a mid-season showdown like they did against OSU. (Maybe this season's white out game?) I'm saying there's a chance.

Cranky Dave

October 7th, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^

Great write up as always. 

During the game I was disappointed in the offense, although not one of those people calling for mass firings... However, when I left the game thread and went to twitter (especially Soace Coyote) then read more measured takes like yours I’m not quite as negative. I still think Patterson is a mediocre QB , and each of the position groups have been uneven. However the play calling is generally fine and you’re right that with a few plays getting executed properly the score would be 17-3 or even 24-3. 

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^

I feel weird because it's not that I think Michigan's offense has looked great by any means, but I've watched some awful performances and that didn't feel like it.  It was an offense with yips and mistakes, but when I think of terrible offenses I can rattle off quite a few performances far worse than this one.  

rainking

October 7th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^

Great job as usual. One small consolation I take from this game is historically UM vs Iowa is a tight game. 14-13, 12-10, 24-21, those sorts of scores. As a student I watched our Schembechler-coached team fall 9-7 at home against Iowa. So it was another close one. I'm happy with the win. Onward.

 

TomJ

October 7th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^

Great job, as usual, bronxblue. An enjoyable read with some reasonable insights. I always enjoy your posts.

Just a few quick notes about the writing:

  • Mad props for recognizing that the plural of "Rutger" is "Rutger". Although it's not (yet) in the dictionary, it could be no other way. 
     
  • Boo for "should have ran out of bounds". Your way to good an writer fore that. 

ijohnb

October 7th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^

Man, we're not even going to get "Peters - The Revenge" this year?  There is just no justice in this world.

WesternWolverine96

October 7th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^

the defense finally looks like a Michigan defense

I think we win all the games except PSU heading into the game.  If we pull off the upset against OSU, which is slightly possible due being a rivalry game, we will all call this a good year

Best reason for hope is that it does take time to change an offense.  Just need the QB to make a read.  If he can find his mojo, we are stacked with talent on that side of the ball.

Wisconsin will (rightfully) hang over this team unless we pull a miracle and take them down in Indy

I'll just take the Iowa win and be happy for now

Soulfire21

October 7th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^

I did notice what I thought was a more confident Shea in the pocket. He wasn't bailing early, and he had a couple of keeps that went for first downs. It's not enough (that we've seen) for a special season, but even that was an improvement on the year so far. We'll see - I hope Illinois is put away rather quickly as well so we can see McCaffrey and Milton with some snaps. Hadn't thought too much about the WR drops but it is frustrating that when Shea puts a ball there, our receives seem unable to come down with it more often than not - sure not perfect throws but absolutely catchable ones.

 

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^

That's the thing - I don't blame guys for dropping balls.  It happens.  But I do get snippy when I hear constantly "throw it up to our huge, NFL guys" and then watch them drop balls that hit them in the hands.  Black in particular has dropped a number of catchable balls, and even Collins has had one straight drop and another couple that, if I was grading, would be questionable.  Which again, is normal, and in a passing offense that threw the ball 40 times nobody would notice.  Throw it 25-30 times and everything gets magnified.  But blaming everything on Patterson feels unfair and not consistent with the play on the field; if anything, I think he extended some drives running the ball and moving out of a pocket that, while not collapsing, also wasn't holding up great.  And a QB on the move can unsettle a secondary and free guys up; the idea he's bugging out because he can't read a secondary is a bit unfair at times.  If there are 7 guys back, it's unlikely someone is going to streak open.  But move around a bit, maybe a linebacker starts cheating up and that opens a window.  On at least two throws that was exactly what happened.

You Only Live Twice

October 7th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^

Insanely good writeup, BB.  

I'm not getting in that wayback machine, I do think the team is moving forward.  There is undeniable progress from Wisconsin - it's just frustrating when it doesn't translate into points. Harbaugh hired Warriner in recognition that we had OL issues to fix.  Then he brings in Gattis, who seems to have established rapport with the players very quickly, to the point he left the press box to come down to the sideline.

Guessing, he's going to have to head back up there sooner rather than later.  If he's going to coordinate this offense he needs that bird's eye view of the plays in real time.

AlbanyBlue

October 7th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^

Great writing here, thanks as always, BB!

Nah, this team isn't 2013.

Perhaps the D will maintain its level against the more spread-y teams that are coming. Perhaps the O will progress some. But the gauntlet is coming. "Foreboding sense of doom" is a good way to put it.

But, then again, I didn't expect us to beat Iowa, so maybe I was a bit harsh on everything. I could see us getting incrementally better on O, enough to beat the less-talented teams left on the schedule. We'll see.

Revising my record prediction to 7-5. Ws against Illinois, and two of Maryland / Indiana / MSU.  

UESWolverine

October 7th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^

I agree with this 100%. I wish I was this articulate. Well done.

My wife pointed this out Saturday, she said that during the RR and Hoke years, there seemed to be more of an emphasis on ‘bowl eligibility’ around this time of year, as opposed to winning championships. It’s those kind of statements that make me remember just how bad things were…