The art of the deep ball
JJ's trying to make the "perfect" throw! He needs to just get some air under the ball!
Aw hell, not you again!
OK, that's joke's played out, if it was ever played in, whatever that means. This just happens to be a very convenient format, so Imma use it.
Anyway. This is what we've been hearing, and I tried to explain in the comments, but I'm not good at this writing thing. Also, full disclaimer, I'm not a QB coach, nor a QB, nor can even throw a spiral. But I watch football a lot. So, let's do that.
It's a bad memory, but I remember McSorley-to-Hamilton roasting us crispy with the moonball back in '17. It's OK to watch the throw, but focus on the QB's time in the pocket:
Oh my, that's beautiful. I-I-I mean, go blue! Not that blue! The blue that's, uh. . . white! Ahem. Anyway, you were watching the QB, right? Of course you were. What'd he do?
Gets snap, sets his feet, and then the ball's gone.
Bing-bang-boom. Now let's see JJ try it:
Gets snap, surveys, surveys, surveys, then ZOOM. Did you see it, bolded alter ego?
Yeah, I saw it.
OK then, please do the bolded thing for emphasis:
The problem is NOT that McCarthy's throws are too fast. The problem is that his mental game is too slow.
Exactly! McCarthy is still a true sophomore, trying to lead Michigan to an undefeated showdown with OSU. Every conference opponent is throwing everything they have at Michigan to play spoiler. Many are playing with their safeties back, daring Michigan to beat them with their O-line and Blake Corum. Which, I mean. . . OK, sure, we can do that. But if you want to see deep balls, you have to understand the timing.
To keep things simple, let's assume a Roman Wilson go route is fixed at ball-meets-hands 40 yards downfield*. By pure coincidence, we know Wilson runs that in 4.4 seconds. So, going with that:
- The time doesn't vary. We are oversimplifying, but even in the context of a game, Wilson's best asset is his speed. He can't slow up or it defeats the purpose; and he certainly can't go faster than his best. So he's going to go that 40 yards in 4.4 as consistently as possible.
- Therefore, JJ has exactly 4.4 seconds from the snap to ball-meets-hands.
- If he's off by even 0.1 seconds, the ball is off by almost a yard.
This requires clockwork precision, along with seeing your receivers run in your sleep. But most of all, it limits his time in the pocket.
The "4.4" is fixed by Wilson's speed. So every tick spent in the pocket, the faster the ball has to be thrown to make up for it. If JJ takes three seconds to get the ball out, it needs to arrive within the remaining 1.4 -- it's gonna need some zip. On the other hand, if you want a nice pretty moonball with three seconds of hangtime instead, the ball needs to be out in 1.4 seconds. That includes snap, setting feet, and forming up! In other words, like we saw McSorley do it, the ball needs to be out almost instantly. That requires a very high level of confidence in the pre-snap read and many months building QB-WR rapport. It took Jake Rudock and Cade McNamara most of a season to get there. In the above clip, McSorley was a second-year starter and Hamilton was a senior. McCarthy is a first-year starter recently recovered from surgery. He hasn't had the luxury of throwing moonballs to his receivers all day. (BTW, what is it with McQBs?)
Let me sum up:
- Buttercup is marry Humperdinck in little less than half an --
- Ow. As opponents toughen up, McCarthy is spending more time on his reads.
- This leads to him spending more time in the pocket.
- The more time he spends in the pocket, the less time he has to deliver the ball.
- Therefore, he has to throw it fast. Right now, he has no choice.
But he's done it before!
Yes, he has. Let's watch:
The ball is out faster than usual for JJ, but this is still not McSorley's moonball. For one thing, it looked predetermined, (double) coverage be damned. It's 21-0 in the second quarter -- mentally, it's an entirely different situation, altogether. Publicly it's a QB competition, and the opponent is showing no signs of a pulse. But even then, he's a beat slow, so the ball flies over fifty yards.
That is NOT a throw McCarthy can make consistently in conference play. It's an impressive show of arm strength, but since he's still taking too long, the fifty yards the receiver runs in the meantime means this option is literally limited by field position -- any point near midfield and it's too risky. A play that requires 60 yards of field to work with isn't viable.
But it does show us he has the physical ability to arc his throws. I mean, we already know that, but let's put to rest any claims it's his mechanics that need coaching. But a lofted throw takes time to arrive, which gives him far less time in the pocket. For him to throw McSorley's moonball, the stuff he's doing in the pocket needs to complete faster. Much faster. That's not going to happen quickly. He doesn't need his throwing motion fixed; he needs experience.
And I think the coaches realize this. The longer-ish throws I do see him complete are long-developing plays. From the QB side, they often involve bootlegs since he's very comfortable throwing on the move. The receivers are running deep in and out routes where 20-30 yards downfield they start going sideways to buy McCarthy time. The vertical routes don't have these, so for now, watch that ball zip.
And be patient. He'll get there.
*P.S. If you're going to freak out about simple word problems, I daresay you're reading the wrong blog.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
How much can the best college QBs read in 1.4 seconds? In other words, Are the moonball QBs better at reading the field quickly or do they just take riskier plays by punting it up and trusting their receiver will be where he's supposed to be?
If the best reasonably attainable college moonball's complete/incomplete/intercepted ratio is mostly based on the receiver and the playcall, but not on the QB making the right read, I can see why we're avoiding them, but if a QB can learn to improve that ratio, then there's a lot of potential on the table for next year.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
First let's note "1.4 seconds" is a figure I pulled out my ass to make the math easy.
In some cases it's just unleashing the dragon. Echoing what I've learned here, with MSU they often have nothing else, so it's not even a read; they just chuck it up and have practiced chucking it where only the receiver has a play. That has a low chance of getting picked, but correspondingly low chance of completion, and last time, Michigan completely shut it down in the second half. It's not a way to run offense. (It does, however, get the ball out quickly.)
In contrast, it seems McSorley's throw might be a second read. I don't know if his look to the left is a feint, but he gets off that wicked fast. If it's a read, I don't think just anyone can do that. They say "you can't teach speed", and that goes for brains as well.
Beyond that, I don't know, and I'd love it if more knowledgeable folks can chime in. I'm making essentially a basic physical observation: time in pocket + airtime = ball ETA. The latter is constant for any given receiver, so it's simple algebra from there. More pocket means less airtime, and vice versa. You have to get the ball out fast, or the receiver runs out of runway.
And BTW, this isn't to say McCarthy's reads are slow! I mean for a reliable moonball they're not fast enough. But you don't want a QB to rush (that just leads to the yips), so he needs to naturally get faster. Even if he's got that in him, it's extremely unlikely to happen this season.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
The implications of your conclusion hit at my complaint about Michigan's passing scheme. I have been pondering why it felt so frustrating and came to a conclusion after watching the Cowboys-Packers game on Sunday night. In OT, Aaron Rodgers hit Allen Lazard on a quick RPO slant in stride that picked up 36 yards. It just looked easy. Admittedly, several things had to go right for the Packers (and wrong for the Cowboys) for that play to work as well as it did. But the basic play design was to quickly find and hit a receiver in motion.
Michigan does not seem to have many pass plays that come out fast and give the receiver an opportunity to keep moving. My (probably selective) memory mostly recalls long-developing pass plays with multiple reads. The protoypical Michigan passing play features McCarthy taking a five- or seven-step drop, bouncing for a second or two while he waits for his first read to finish their route, seeing some sort of unfavorable coverage, moving to his second read, and then making a throw to a decently covered receiver. Nothing feels quick or easy.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
And I think the common denominator is McCarthy's progressions. The good news is that he usually makes the right read. But the time it takes for him to get there limits the passing game. Here's hoping he's nowhere near his ceiling in this regard.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:59 AM ^
If it's a 5 or 7 step drop, the first read is usually designed to be "on time", or with a quick hitch or bounce, while second and third reads are later. If he is waiting on the receiver to get open first before the throws it he is too late - the idea is to make the anticipatory throw just as the receiver is making his break, so the ball is half-way there by the time the receiver is looking for it.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
Freaking out about simple word problems is our primary hobby. Besides freaking out about how our undefeated teams could be better.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Wilton year one could hit the deep ball fairly consistently. Year two he started missing them, always missing them long. We blamed his injury at Iowa.
Shea year one could hit the deep ball fairly consistently. Year two he started missing them, always missing them long. We blamed his off-season dedication to golf.
JJ year one could hit the deep ball fairly consistently. Year two he started missing them, always missing them long. We've blamed his recovery from injury being TOO good, his receivers not getting separation or, if I'm reading this post correctly his processing speed in the pocket.
The one common denominator though for all three Michigan QBs is a 2nd year regression and the regression moving to always missing long. Always long. Every miss long and I 100% believe that's because our HC drills into his QB "dont throw interceptions, take the DB out of play by putting the ball where only your guy can get it".
Now to be fair I'm not saying this is the wrong strategy (it's worked pretty good this year) but it definitely IS a strategy - this isnt a coincidence, this is absolutely coached. Or as the head of my IT department once told us when a software update they downloaded created interface changes users didnt particularly like.
'It's not a bug. It's a feature."
November 15th, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
I've seen this a lot and while I don't necessarily disagree, I think it's overplayed.
The deep ball is difficult, and often times thrown as a bluff, so defenses might not respect it until they get burned. So early in a QB's career, it's often there. Once the threat is demonstrated, defenses adjust. In particular, Michigan QBs get ruthlessly scouted. Generally speaking, John O'Korn and Joe Milton had sparkling debuts, then defenses quickly took away what they were doing.
McCarthy threw a beautiful deep ball in his first game and then spent most of the season looking at safeties playing deep. Defenses aren't going to just let McCarthy unleash 50-yard bombs, and that's not on Harbaugh. Now, I do get that Harbaugh eschews risk even on 3rd and long, and I get some grumbling when his QBs check down short of the sticks, but the loudness of the grumbling has me baffled considering we're watching the same games:
- MSU tried the all-fades offense and went scoreless in the second half. It's a low-percentage completion, especially with a safety over the top.
- Rutgers threw picks and that turned the 3rd quarter from a close game into a rout.
- Speaking of Rutgers, they showed a pick and a punt aren't the same thing. Without gunners to hold it down, if the receiver (who isn't recruited for open-field tackling) doesn't make a play, a pick can easily go 30 yards back the other way.
I'd love it if McCarthy could throw moonballs at will but defenses clearly don't want him to, and the downsides have been on full display. The offense can do a bunch of other things good too, so they're going to do those things instead.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
But that's exactly why I said I dont know if it's necessarily a bad idea. But it's definitely coached and you sort of make my point when you state that the reason partially lies in the defense taking it away.
But think back to the misses over the past several games. Do you remember any where the safety was over the top of the WR and we missed short? Can you think of even one that fell short? They ALWAYS miss long. Always. Always. Always miss long and that simply cannot be written off as a timing issue or a processing issue. There's a reason we always miss long, never short, and that's because that's where the HC wants the ball if not caught - out of harms way.
November 15th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
I guess I agree; I just don't care? At least not right now.
I'm aware that if you throw it short the receiver can Randy Moss the DB, so you're not necessarily dead if the throw's margin of error is +/- whatever. Whereas Harbaugh wants the throw to have zero negative margin, which shifts the entire MoE downfield, making it a more difficult throw. His QBs didn't throw short even when we had Nico Collins, jump baller extraordinaire. So yeah, I thought that was a problem when we had Patterson and Nico, but when it's JJ throwing to Wilson and Johnson. . .
Those guys don't strike me as fade merchants, and either way, McCarthy's problem is still that he has to shoot the ball out of a cannon because it's taking him too long to go from snap to release. His flat trajectories are significantly more dangerous if it's short, because the DB has a play on a ball that's not sailing over his head. So whether by wisdom or stubbornness, I think Harbaugh happens to be right in JJ's case.
November 16th, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^
“The deep ball is difficult” doesn’t explain 100% of misses going long though. JJ’s accuracy isn’t centered on the target, I guess is what I’m saying. If he was “on target”, half his misses would be short. His “average” ball is a yard or two too long, which is either intentional or a failure to adjust.
Coverage doesn’t really explain it - no team just lets a guy get open 50 yards down field. “Cover your guy” is not really an adjustment, it’s talent. (To a point - the CB can play farther off to avoid getting burned quite as bad, or press the receiver to disrupt the route. But the former doesn’t change where a catchable ball needs to be, and the latter is something the QB needs to account for when selecting his aim point)
Against MSU, Michigan turned off the deep fades by adding safety help, making the catch tougher. But safety help doesn’t force JJ to throw it too long either.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
This might explain why the receivers aren't escaping coverage. The receivers aren't simply running; they are also trying to gauge timing and adjust accordingly. And this slows them down.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
JJ McCarthy is probably under some mixed messaging. On the one hand, he is probably being told to "relax and just yourself" - the guy who rans after Corum at Indy, the guy who threw an amazing long throw. On the other had he is told "to protect the ball" and not to throw a bad pick and he has had that unlucky and ugly pick against PSU and near misses on other occasions.
This may all be resulting in that small hitch or wait before he throws - he is checking to be sure, he isn't missing some lurking LB or DB - and that is enough.
So what to do? I hope his WR help him by catching all that they can. I hope that the Schoonmaker gets healthy. I hope the running game remains strong - play action is definitely his friend.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Really interesting take, even if I had to relive that damn PSU game again (at least you didn't make us relive any of the Saquon torching us plays).
While I agree 100% in your theory of JJ taking longer for processing time, I am not certain it is all on JJ. Anytime a playcall is making a defender be in conflict and choose between receivers, JJ's read is dependent on that defender making a decision. Comparing a developing pass play to a no-read fade is not apples-to-apples. Regardless, I hope you are right and that being a sophomore in his first real playing time means he has a lot of room to grow in being decisive. Hopefully he will get to the point where he is not waiting on seeing the coverage, he will simply know what the coverage is doing. I have to imagine defenses trying to throw everything at him is only helping speed up that process and would not rule out improvement even over the remainder of the season. There are only so many ways a defense can defend without doing something stupid.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
Comparing a developing pass play to a no-read fade is not apples-to-apples.
It's not, but I'm making a simple point about ETA. Whether it's a no-read fade or a friggin' WCO slant, the ball has to arrive on time. Apples ain't oranges but both go bad if you wait too long. So sure, one way to get the ball out quickly is to just chuck and pray, but our run game is too efficient for that to make sense. If it's a read progression, we can see that McCarthy just isn't all that fast right now.
Also, I'm not sure McSorley's pass was a no-read fade. His first look was to the opposite side of the field. It's possible he faked it, but either way, he got through his ritual faster than JJ's bomb against Hawai'i that clearly wasn't a post-snap read.
FWIW, I'm not blaming JJ. I'm saying his game has limitations, and throwing moonballs isn't as simple as fixing his mechanics. With the time he spends in the pocket, if he lofts the thing the receiver's run all the way through the end zone and into the wall. I did say the coaches seem aware of his current limitations and are scheming accordingly, but I'll bet OSU has already noticed this.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
McSorley was not reading anything. He briefly looked off the Cover 1 safety before turning to throw the fade to a fade merchant.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:56 AM ^
I like your explanation about JJ and long throws. But I have to disagree with your characterization of the long throw to Johnson not involving a post-snap read. The position of the safety determined whether the pass would be to Johnson long rather than to Bell intermediate.
(But anyway, thanks for taking the time to write up your observations and thoughts.)
November 15th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
You're comparing two entirely different play calls with different designed dropbacks. "Throw the fade immediately if you get single coverage" is miles away from "read the safeties on 4 verts" or "hit the post on a play-action mills or dagger concept."
Several of the incompletions on deep balls Saturday were as catchable as the PSU throw the Hamilton was.
JJ has no problem making quick reads, he has shown prowess there on a lookie or an RPO. The issue is simply that this Michigan team devotes most of its practice time to having a terrifying run game and ridiculously efficient short and intermediate pass game. For the same reason OSU isn't elite in short yardage this year, there are just some things that fall victim to the tradeoff created by time limitations.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
JJ has no problem making quick reads, he has shown prowess there on a lookie or an RPO. The issue is simply that this Michigan team devotes most of its practice time to having a terrifying run game and ridiculously efficient short and intermediate pass game.
This is the best and most succinct summary which is most likely the correct answer.
I watched a couple of highlight videos from some of the more recent prolific passing offenses. So many of the deep throws that connected were to receivers who were basically wide open. The reason they were wide open was a mix of QB scrambling for a while and finally found a guy who lost his coverage or a coverage bust.
I then watched highlights of Michigan's WR's (yes, these exist). Michigan highly focuses on quick outs, deep outs, and slants. This is a coaching choice. It's worked really well the past two years. It may not be as fun for fans, but there's nothing more fun than winning to this fan.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
I think some of JJ's issues are a direct result of having the most proficient OL and RB in the country.
We praised Cade last year because he was an excellent game manager (and that wasn't a knock on him!). The biggest question with JJ was his ability to manage the game and control the offense. I feel like we've basically taken that for granted this year because we just expect him to be better than Cade. And he is in some ways! But he's also doing the things Cade did all year last year - minimizing risks, staying on schedule, taking care of the football, controlliing/managing the offense. We're forgetting how important that is for a team that is this efficient on the ground. JJ is doing it and should get some praise for it. Two turnovers all year, and no more than maybe 3-4 punts a game even against some top-30 defenses.
I do think that comes at a cost. And it's not just a coaching thing. JJ doesn't need to be told by Harbaugh to be risk-averse - the team around him also plainly dictates it. The offense is at its most efficient running the ball and sprinkling in play action intermediate TE/Bell passes underneath for 15-30 yard chunks. That stuff works. So yeah, it means he probably wants to make sure his deep passes have no shot of being intercepted. And I'm sure that impacts his decision-making too, which goes into the speed argument OP is making here. Let's not forget he's a first year starter and Big Ten defenses are probably throwing advanced coverages at him he has never seen before - it takes time to gain experience to be able to be very quick and decisive while also being risk-averse.
November 15th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
I think it's a priority thing, yeah. The other stuff is working, and that's because they worked on it.
The run game includes the threat of JJ's legs, which means he had a zone read game to get down. Then there are the bootlegs and other intermediate throws. Learning the playbook. All the other things a QB does. That's a lot to get down in the time he's been here.
The deep ball is nice, but whether it's a desperation heave or a Rudockian breakdown of the coverage, it's a big investment to get right. The timing is unforgiving, and the window is small. And it doesn't really complement all the other things the offense is doing.
So I think the deep ball (within the context of a conference game, not just embarrassing Hawai'i with a pre-snap decision to heave into double coverage) is certainly on the list of priorities, but secondary to all the things we've seen McCarthy do. He can probably throw that no-read fade, but we know damn well Harbaugh doesn't want him to do that. So it's Rudockening or bust, and from what I've seen, he's not there yet. So in the meantime we're getting these frozen-rope throws that are hard to catch.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
The other stuff is working, and that's because they worked on it.
See also: redzone issues. Clearly it become a recent point of emphasis, and oh hey look it wasn't an issue vs. Rutgers or Nebraska. Hope we keep seeing the growth in redzone creativity, because its been nice seeing them convert those into TDs consistently again.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
Great post
November 16th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Here's a question - Do deep passes (20+ yards) really need to be an artform perse? I'm not saying chuck it up Denard style and see if Hemingway can come down with it but there should be some type of chemistry and trust that seems to be lacking between JJ and the WR corp. It doesn't appear JJ is using the sideline to his advantage and is maybe worried about INTs on jump ball situations. Maybe get some more deep crossing routes where he can lead a receiver and get the YAC?
We're coming up to game 11 with a bye week sprinkled in so this is my concern, dude.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
Good Diary, OP. I think the thing that has stood out for me with JJ is that on a pass play, a lot has to go right. Pre-snap read. Routes run correctly. Separation achieved. Post snap read. Protection. Decision. Throw. Catch.
There's a lot of room in there for error. A lot of variables, so hard to fully diagnose 1 thing that needs to be fixed.
That said, with anything reps tend to solve problems. JJ is a first-year starter, true sophomore. Last year he had 59 passing attempts. Some good chunk of those game during garbage time against defeated teams. Not all certainly, but many.
This year he's started he's started most of the games and has thrown....213 pass attempts. That's more, but it's not even 4 times as many as he threw last year as the backup.
My guess would be that he needs time and experience to do things like speed up his reads, trust his receivers, and nail timing on these things. Look at some of the QBs who are leading for the Heisman right now. Hooker has 901 career passing attempts. CJ Stroud has 718 passing attempts in 1 and 3/4 seasons. Now that doesn't mean JJ can't be good now, but with our run-heavy offense, he just seems like he needs the game to slow down for him and to get more reps in the passing attack. He is still mostly great at the intermediate and short stuff. I think we'll see him get the long ball down soon enough.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
Interesting, but here's a different hypothesis: he's not processing things too slowly, he's being coached to see it before he throws it. This avoids the turnover when he misreads the defense or isn't on the same page with his receivers, but means he's always late with his throws.
And this is simply another product of Harbaugh's inherent conservatism . . . sure, JJ's been unsuccessful connecting on long downfield passes, but he's thrown only 3 interceptions and one was a fluky triple-plonk deflection. For Michigan, so far, the only way to lose is to give turn it over to your opponent. Having a more dynamic, anticipatory passing attack would be nice, but it also carries the risk of creating the only thing that can make Michigan lose--so Harbaugh says, nah.
November 17th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
I agree that it could be the coaching or JJ's processing, but regardless, I do agree with the OP that we need some faster releases on longer passes and you just have to trust the receiver. If it gets out that quickly, the safety is unlikely to get over there in time if it's an outside throw so let your receiver go make a play.
The separation issue is also real and I've been fearing that maybe our receivers are not as good as we think they are, but I'd like to see them have the opportunity to prove me wrong. Anthony is fast and has shown he can highpoint a ball. Cornelius has a lot of drops, but he and Bell have made a fair amount of contested catches when given the chance.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
Part of the issue is trusting the receiver to come down with it when they’re not really separating. I wouldn’t want to throw moonballs into lock down coverage without a Moss-type. That’s incredibly high risk high reward stuff and maybe we just don’t need to risk that when we have a 5 ypc rushing attack.
Edit: more air = more time…for everyone (including DBs)
November 16th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^
I've long has this theory that Harbaugh has a fundamentally different philosophy than other successful college coaches when it comes to QBs.
For someone like Urban Meyer, who, for all his garbage qualities as a human being, is a phenomenal college coach, it's all about finding what your QB does well, and then creating inventive ways to do that more.
For Harbaugh, it's additive. "Ok, you have Skill A, next week we're going to add Skill B." Or maybe more like "Concept A" vs. "Concept B." We already know that part of his pitch to QB recruits is "we'll develop you along NFL lines", meaning there's reads, checks, motion triggers, sight adjustments, the whole package.
So my theory is that Harbaugh reaches his QBs' ceilings more often than not. And the corollary is that some guys' heads might start spinning. Can you imagine the offense Urban would put together with JJ? It would be all zone read RPOs, playing 100 mph, and the deep ball would be there.
If you're Jake Rudock in a Harbaugh offense and the lightbulb comes on, you turn into an NFL QB. If you're Shea Patterson and don't know how to process what's in front of you, you're, well, Shea Patterson.
Just a theory.
November 17th, 2022 at 1:12 AM ^
All JJ needs is some touch to his long ball.
November 17th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
I love your mathematical approach to this. A pass that I won't forget is the Cade to CJ pass against OSU on 2nd and 8 from the OSU 40 late in the 2nd quarter down 10-7.
Watching this in slo mo, you can see that Cade begins the throw before CJ crosses the 30. Cade floats it in there and CJ catches it at the 6. So, in the roughly 4.4 seconds from the hike, Cade decided in about 1.5 sec, makes the pass in another half sec and then the ball floated for 34 yards in about 2.4 seconds.
My point is in agreement with your premise that there isn't a lot of time to make the decision in order to allow for a nice pass to float into the receiver's waiting hands.
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