11/19/2022 – Michigan 19, Illinois 17 – 11-0, 8-0 Big Ten

Blake Corum got a screen, and he got blocking. Colston Loveland wiped a guy. Olu Oluwatimi harassed the nearest safety until he could only desperately chase Corum down the sideline. He lined up for an ankle tackle that probably wasn't going to work. It didn't work. Corum… ran out of bounds.

What? How? What? In the stands I assumed that what I saw is not actually what I saw. In the press box the announcers were so baffled that they didn't even mention it. But in this Zapruder dawn a couple days later we can process the event: Blake Corum just daintily pranced out of bounds because of the vague idea that an Illinois safety might contact him, from behind, maybe.

div/0 fatal error

Correction: div/0, near fatal error.

-------------------------------------

The thing is: Corum did this on his first carry, too.

JJ McCarthy is out there getting lit up because he thinks it's the Big Ten championship game and instead of using that Corum just heads out of bounds, with no impact from a defender at all. Here's a picture of McCarthy dying inside.

"ow" –McCarthy [Barron]

I have seen Blake Corum run the ball enough to know this is not a usual event, and I have seen Michigan games under Jim Harbaugh where the opponent is not given much respect. Earlier this year McCarthy was bailing to the sideline on QB keepers even when this made little sense. I know "save hits where you can" is a philosophy this program employs, but to apply it to Corum, who's coming off a 29-carry day against Nebraska? This was the grand bull-moose of all such disrespect events.

Sorry, Sparty. You're not even the most disrespected team in the league anymore.

You just have to wonder: Schoonmaker, Morris, and Jones all warmed up but did not play. (Jones did get in on a goal-line package.) Keegan and Edwards were in street clothes but had no lower body issues, as your author observed pre-game. AJ Henning was mysteriously absent. Corum re-entered for two plays in the second half and then sat out the rest of the game. Even deep into the second half Illinois was sitting on a lead and Michigan didn't unearth any of the guys who were close enough to health to warm up. Exactly how much focus was placed on the Ohio State game over the past week, month, and year, and how much of this game was a big ol' game of chicken with the Buckeyes?

Probably a lot, and judging by results around the country Michigan was far from alone. Ohio State was in a three-point game with Maryland with six minutes left; they got outgained for the third time in four weeks. Tennessee got ambushed by South Carolina. USC's defense went from mostly notional to an astral presence trying to affect anything in the real world. Even mighty Georgia slopped their way to a 16-6 win over Kentucky. The entirety of the college football world was just trying to scrape by on the penultimate weekend of the regular season.

I kind of hate this approach because it leads to things like this game and, more egregiously, last year's Rutgers outing. It feels like the finger of the football gods passing judgment on you when Corum gets bashed in the knee during the game where it seems like he's been instructed to avoid getting bashed in the knee whenever possible. It feels bad, man.

But we've been here long enough to know that whatever Michigan looks like in the games where they're just trying to get to The Game isn't what they look like against Ohio State. This team has had the luxury of a lot of opponents they could get away with powerfully disrespecting; hopefully they have used that time to prepare a veritable smorgasbord of pain for OSU.

Decks are clear. Armageddon is a go. Break them.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Uh, Well, Still Blake Corum. If you are personally responsible for 150 yards of offense in a half of play and generate a lot of that yourself you still end up here. Even if you probably should have been responsible for 200.

#2 Mason Graham. Graham didn't get starters snaps but was the dude making short-yardage stops repeatedly as Jenkins and Smith had some issues. Four total tackles vastly underestimates his performance.

#3 Jake Moody. Nice having the reigning Groza winner at your service in a game you win by kicking four field goals. Winner was straight down the pipe, and he converted one into the heavy, swirling wind.

Honorable mention: Ronnie Bell battled with Witherspoon all day and came up with a key punt return. Colston Loveland had three catches and should have had at least five.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

51: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa. HM Indiana, T2 PSU, #1 MSU, T1 Rutgers, #3 Nebraska, #1 Illinois)
23: The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa, #1 PSU, HM MSU, #3 Rutgers, #1 Nebraska)
21: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, #3 Indiana, HM PSU, HM MSU. HM Rutgers)
18: Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn, #2 Indiana, HM PSU, HM Nebraska, HM Illinois)
17: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa, T1 Indiana, #3 PSU, HM Rutgers),
15:  Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, #2 MSU, HM Rutgers, HM Nebraska)
14: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, HM MSU, HM Nebraska)
13: Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, #2 Nebraska, #2 Illinois)
9: Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii, T2 PSU, T1 Rutgers)
7: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland, HM PSU), Jake Moody (HM PSU, #3 MSU, #3 Illinois).
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland), Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn, HM PSU), Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, HM MSU), Michael Barrett (#2 Rutgers).
4: Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana).
3: Derrick Moore (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Rod Moore (HM CSU, HM Indiana, HM MSU)
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland), Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland, HM Indiana)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), , AJ Henning (HM UConn), Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), RJ Moten (HM Maryland), Will Johnson (HM Rutgers), CJ Stokes (HM Nebraska), Andrel Anthony (HM Nebraska), Colston Loveland (HM Illinois)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Moody's field goal to win is right down the middle.

Honorable mention: Corum busts out on the first play from scrimmage; TD drive ensues from there. Bell's punt return sets Michigan up for a field goal. Graham stuffs a fourth and short.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Corum takes a helmet to the knee, causing him to (maybe) fumble and more or less knocking him out for the duration. Insult to injury.

Honorable mention: Brown bursts for a 37-yard touchdown that puts Michigan in its first second-half deficit since Penn State. Inexpicable Corum exit in game column. Garbage holding call brings back a 40 yard improv play to Wilson. Andrel Anthony drops a touchdown.

OFFENSE

aaaaargh [Fuller]

What's wrong with the passing game? Yes. Well: at this point the passing game looks like it'll be the thing we're talking about in the aftermath of a competitive but doomed outing in Columbus. The receivers turned in three critical drops—one each from Wilson, Anthony, and Gash. The latter two were touchdowns (or close enough to bash in) that took 11 points off the board. Meanwhile McCarthy followed up a couple of those drops with passes airmailed over the heads of tight ends, the second one a boggling line-drive overthrow of a wide open Loveland.

Opportunities are not going to be that frequent against OSU, and way too many of them have looked like this of late:

Just misses, without even an opportunity to make a play on the ball. And then when there is a play on the ball we get the other side of aaargh.

[Fuller]

Just have to hope this is a confluence of unfortunate events and that things will be instantly and painlessly fixed next week in the biggest game of their lives. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Not quite there on rollouts. One point to McCarthy for being able to escape this pressure up the gut, but when he rolls out he draw Loveland's defender but does not throw to Loveland:

Maybe you gotta Mahomes that and it goes badly but it's third and ten, that's time for the Mahomesening. McCarthy did manage that on a later improv opportunity:

That's the one that got called back on a holding call that is thoroughly horseshit. I'm not negging Zinter for that; it's a rollout on which he releases pretty much immediately when he realizes the DT is leaving, and there isn't even a noticeable yank back from the DL. Nobody would have noticed if the flag did not come out. FWIW, Illinois got hit with an equally horseshit holding call on the Brown run that got out to the 45 with about 40 seconds before the half.

[Barron]

Loveland though. Colston Loveland is a "now" player. From last week's UFR:

It might be time to talk about Loveland in the present tense. Most discussion of him this season has focused on the future, stuff like "oh he's getting a lot of playing time he'll be an important piece next year," but he more than held his own as a blocker in this game and—while I am basing this largely on vibes at this point—he feels like an explosive downfield threat in a way that Schoonmaker is not.

Here he became Michigan's go-to guy down the stretch, with the above catch-and-run out of a mesh concept setting up Michigan close to field goal range; the same play was the argh coulda-shoulda third down that leads this section. He was also wide open on the Gash drop, causing my section to explode in anguish at WHY ARE YOU THROWING TO HIM WHEN YOU COULD THROW TO HIM; on the broadcast Blackledge is befuddled at how this guy is open on every play. He blocks well enough that you can't just go nickel when he's in the game and he's running contested comeback routes against safeties without an issue.

He's going to be a key piece in The Game.

What kind of defense? We have had many passive defenses this year. This was not one of them. Second and twelve? Let's send six guys, and we either get a TFL or a chunk:

Illinois spent a lot of the game in a six-man front and virtually the whole game with an extra guy in the box. They are the one team that was fully prepared to take on Michigan's murderball rushing outfit, probably because they are the one team on the schedule that can credibly claim to have an equivalent.

free hitter going to make contact at the LOS [Fuller]

Approach: less than ideal. This is not going to be a good RPS outing for Michigan because they spent much of the day running into +1 boxes from Illinois and having their free hitters whack guys at or near the line of scrimmage. Sometimes this was fine because Corum made it fine or Illinois defenders checked McCarthy. Mostly it was not fine. You just cannot make a living running the ball against +1 in the box when the opposition assumes they have the cutback with the unblocked guy and can slant to the play:

That is a million percent RPS. I am about to get in some annoying arguments with folks who always take the side of coaches in these situations, but when Corum is trying to break the tackle of an unblocked backside DE your playcall failed. None of those blocks are miraculously going to be made.

Arc without the QB. On the other hand, this counter was pretty brilliant and took advantage of the crashing without exposing McCarthy:

There were a few things Michigan pulled out in this one in addition to this. They ran their first running back screens in I don't know how long and a bunch of crossing routes that got Loveland freed up repeatedly, and they had a couple of man beaters for their critical fourth downs.

On the controversial fourth down. I'm not sure what the deal is there. There was a previous completion to Loveland on which Loveland runs through very similar contact before breaking open:

If a guy jams you are you automatically committing OPI by trying to get off it? According to the rulebook… uh… yes.

V.. Before the ball is thrown, wide receiver A88 moves four yards downfield directly toward and in front of the defender, B1. At this spot, B1 pushes A88, who then uses his hands to contact B1. RULING: Team A foul, offensive pass interference, if the legal forward pass is beyond the neutral zone. Penalty—15 yards from the previous spot. VI.

This makes every attempt to get off a jam that uses your hands OPI. Obviously the game is not called like that. Players have leeway to run through defenders attempting to stall them out, like Loveland does on that play. Loveland did not come off the guy trying to jam him to hit the player in man coverage on Gash, which is something that (almost) always gets called. What actually happened is far more ambiguous, because who is blocking who?

I mean yeah: Loveland is blocking. Because of the context. But otherwise it's just two guys mutually fighting each other. Usually that gets let go. In conclusion, the NCAA rule book is insanely draconian about OPI and the result is anarchy.

I mean, maybe it was fine? Michigan was minus their top two backs, top two tight ends, and two starters on the OL. Isaiah Gash got a significant amount of run. Maybe in that context 376 yards of offense and five scoring drives isn't the worst thing in the world. Corum: 18 carries, 108 yards, 6.0 per. Not Corum RBs: 15 carries, 49 yards, 3.3 YPC. If Corum doesn't get knocked out, Michigan scores on that end of half drive and probably ends up scoring some variety of touchdown in the second half and we're not talking about a narrow escape at all.

DEFENSE

Combined sacks in foreground of this picture: 2.5 [Barron]

Erp: concerns seemingly validated. We had some pass-rush avalanches earlier in the season that caused a bunch of folks to declare preseason worries overblown. Six days prior to The Game I think we can say that Michigan doesn't really have a complete defensive end. Harrell and Upshaw are the guys prophesied in the season preview: good run defenders, responsible, not going to tear off the edge. Okie/McGregor/Moore have flashed against weaker lines but haven't put up much of anything against the reasonably competent.

Related: chaos? Nope. Michigan turned in an alarmingly havoc-free day against Illinois, with one TFL and one pass breakup. DeVito was not sacked and was rarely pressured at all. No Mike Morris is a factor, but this is not an offensive line with a stellar pass protection record—they're solid but only that. Michigan's attempts to get near him were almost universally defeated, with a notable fourth down exception coming when the guard across from Taylor Upshaw didn't have the snap count.

DTs: tested. Illinois was the first team on the schedule to really go after M DTs with double teams and the had a fairly good success rate on them:

It should be noted this is the opposite of the Illinois approach where they always have a free guy in the box. Michigan spent almost the entirety of this game playing soft and asking their front six to make plays. They did a fairly good job outside of the 37-yard run given up to Chase Brown, and that was on Barrett and Upshaw more than any DT—Upshaw in particular just failed to retrace at all on a play where he should be able to get in a tackle attempt.

gone but not forgotten [Fuller]

MOVE! Don Brown is coaching UMass now but that doesn't mean he's entirely gone from Michigan. After a timeout on a pivotal fourth and one Michigan went with the ol' Don Brown MOVE call:

Not technically illegal, the best kind of illegal.

Monster in the making. Mason Graham made what was maybe the play of the day on an early fourth and one:

He keeps popping up in places; he should have drawn a couple different holding calls far more severe than the Zinter incident. Right now he's sort of eating these some of the time. With some development he'll go from losing out on plays because he's being held to making plays despite being held.

ARO defeated. I did enjoy Michigan's comprehensive defeat of America's Rollout Out, a play so commonplace on third down that I started labeling it "America's [Blank]" more than a decade ago. It just works, over and over, and so for Michigan to delete it like this is a pleasant departure:

Illinois did not cope with similar plays well because they're so heavy on man to man. Michigan has departed from that plane of existence.

SPECIAL TEAMS

I don't like it. Finally I preview a team and find out their punter is sort of butt, so of course his first effort is a 64-yard blast that settles down at the three. I disapprove of this. At least his other punts were pretty thoroughly butt, including a shank and the final one that set Michigan up at the 48. That probably wasn't due to the wind, judging by the flagpole at that moment. It was just a 30 yard punt.

[Fuller]

I do like it. Gonna be weird when Jake Moody isn't here anymore. Ditto Robbins. The Robbins/Moody era stretches back decades and is known as the Pax Specialistica in textbooks. At some point Tommy Doman is going to miss a 34 yarder and I'm going to crawl into a hole and die.

Well, Ronnie, okay then. One Ronnie Bell punt return served up at a crucial time, although it was not—as Sean McDonough claimed—Michigan's longest of the year. It was Bell's, because Henning is the punt returner.

MISCELLANEOUS

Same Ol' Bert. Bielema chased the officials across the field so he could scream at them:

Then he retweeted the Illini equivalent of @GoBlue69420 bitching about the fourth down conversion. My rhetorical policy going forward here is 1) yes it's rigged, 2) STFU and cash your check unless you want to be in a conference with Idaho.

Yeah, kick the field goal on fourth and eleven. I punched the numbers into an NFL fourth down calculator:

This was my instinct live as well, because the field goal is obviously very useful and converting a fourth and eleven is ~20%.

Also, yes, take the penalty on the Illinois drive. The fourth down calculator also comes up with "go for it" on a hypothetical fourth and one, and there was approximately a 100% chance that Bielema would have gone for it as a three-score underdog with a mashing ground game. I love me some Mason Graham but not enough to roll those dice.

Slightly more dubious, but, yeah don't settle. Michigan got the ball down to the 22 after a Witherspoon PI on Bell and had 47 seconds and no timeouts. They elected to continue attempting to gain yardage despite having a 39 yarder in their pocket. Johnson caught a ball for five yards on second down, which got reviewed and (inexplicably) upheld, so Michigan had another shot; McCarthy attempted a back shoulder fade that got knocked down.

Michigan's other options were immediate turtle or running on second down and then spiking the ball. I don't like immediate turtle even with Moody, but a second down run is probably fine. I don't think the margins here move much.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best:  11-0

I’ll spend time this diary discussing all that went wrong in this game but up top we have to recognize that Michigan is 11-0 for the first time since 2006 and assured of back-to-back 11+ win seasons for the first time since Fielding Yost roamed the sideline and everyone played football with 26-year-old dock workers and meat packers smoking pipes and popping cocaine-laced throat drops at halftime.  Now, on the one hand this isn’t as uncommon as you may think, as schools as diverse as Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, and OSU to Michigan State (Dantonio was and remains an asshole but the man can coach), Penn State (during the Frames era), and even old nemesis App St. have accomplished this feat this century.  In fact, over a dozen teams have accomplished this feat since 2000.  But Michigan hadn’t until now, and considering how many people were ready to dump Harbaugh in the Huron River after 2020 to be back to this level of dominance is truly amazing and should be cherished.

State of Our Open Threads:

After a rather long stretch of somewhat depressed participation, which can be attributed to things like the site format and the widely accepted idea that the open threads for football games are a cesspool of negativity even during comfortable games, we finally managed to generate a performance which rivaled some of the threads of seasons past - very large, very negative, even despairing despite the win in the end. Just like old times indeed. …

Let's look at fucks given, for starters:

This is not an error - there really were 406 fucks given yesterday, which far and away tops the 251 that we gave for the Indiana game. There were two major contributors to this, and I am sure you would guess what they are - the passing offense being very, well, frightening and Blake's apparent injury, which we now know was not all that bad, but even so, they still held him out in the second half, which I am sure many of us would have done.