This Week’s Obsession: What’s Up With the Passing Game?
Adam: This two-throw sequence has it all:
The throw to Gentry is basically a fadeaway, but it's a boggingly accurate one considering Speight's footwork. Frequent pressure is forcing him to move around in the pocket, and once he's moving around said pressure prevents him from making technically sound throws. The next throw is one of those grating OOB throws that have become common in and around the end zone; despite this, I place little blame on Speight. He's under siege from the drop and looks like he's trying to let the receiver get into his route as long as possible while also bracing for impact, hence the bad throw.
Being able to find a receiver at all is commendable when you're under that kind of duress. The first throw can't be stepped into lest he get crushed, and yeah, there's maybe a half second on the second throw that he could have used to set but there's also a blitzing, snarling serviceman closing in quickly. I rewatched the game a couple of times and didn't see throws that were flat-out bad when Speight wasn't pressured. He's looking to get through his reads, and by the time he's through two or three there's rarely time to do anything but chuck it and hope for the best.
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Seth: Speight isn't the only problem—we're going to talk about the receivers—but he is the least solvable. A quick timeline:
- 2015: Dreadful except one magnificent Minnesota drive
- Early 2016: Starts atrocious, receives Harbaugh pounding, fine
- Colorado to bye 2016: Ear-holed, lost confidence
- Bye Week until Iowa 2016: Lethal
- Iowa: WTF
- Post-Iowa 2016: Injured, constantly under siege, smart
- 2017 to date: Smart but regularly targets tacopants
Since the Defenstratio Testudo game there was Jaleel Johnson, then Ohio State and Florida State turning Kalis into a turnstile, and three games behind this kid OL that still regularly screws up obvious twists. The narrative here is an all-too-familiar one: the less he can trust his pocket, the more Speight loses his footwork, and the crappier he gets. Devin Gardner's 2014, JT Barrett 2017, every NFL QB behind a bad OL: QED.
[After the JUMP: We wish we wish we wish]
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Ace: Yeah, let’s get to those receivers. While the tight end group has held up well, the wideouts (other than Grant Perry) haven’t given Speight a ton of help. As it turns out, having a true sophomore as the de facto #1 receiver isn’t optimal. Kekoa Crawford hasn’t been reliable as the top option; the first Florida pick-six, not clearing out for Speight on the goal line scramble against Air Force, and the flat drop on third down later in the AF game are the first things that come to mind when thinking about how his season has gone.
It’s more than simply a matter of catching the ball, too. There have been more than a couple dropbacks this season in which Speight has surveyed the field and rightfully decided nobody was open. While Speight has certainly been scattershot, I have to imagine some of these off-target throws are due to freshmen running imprecise routes. It doesn’t seem like Speight fully trusts his receivers yet.
This should improve gradually over the course of the season, even with the Tarik Black injury, as the wideouts gain much-needed experience. I think we’re still going to notice the absence of two senior wideouts all year.
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David: Other than Grant Perry, no one of the roster has much collegiate experience at all. Crawford and Bunting got some time last season...but not a ton. Most everyone else is in their first season on the field. There have been drops, miscommunication, and lack of familiarity with how to ad lib play breakdowns (i.e. the Speight awkward pop pass attempt to Crawford...in which Kekoa should have conflicted the defender by releasing to the corner). These are definitely things that can and will be ironed out with more reps, time spent together, and just experience going through similar situations on the field. When will that happen? Ummmmm...hopefully soon?
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Seth: It's a credit to Tarik Black that that injury is not nothing. He's a true freshmen when Michigan has plausible freshmen receivers coming out their ears, but this true freshman played like an upperclassman, and those are very precious indeed on this roster. Black already has a Darboh-as-a-junior-level feel for how a DB is playing him, and when he can cut off a route into a comeback. That's been a very valuable asset in our clunky, dodge-a-rusher-find-a-checkdown passing game. We hope DPJ is learning at double-time, and Oliver Martin's thing is healed soon. I think it was always going to be deep in the Big Ten season before either breaks out like Black has.
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Ace: So this seems relevant, even though I’m a little skeptical of Bredeson’s grade:
Here's how Michigan's offensive line has fared in pass protection this season, based on our Pass Block Efficiency Rating pic.twitter.com/WMszBtimgy
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 18, 2017
Brian: I don't buy that at all. Cole has three pass pro minuses in UFR through three games, Bredeson has been fine, and I don't think the right side is pretty much the worst in college football. That site has failed basic sanity tests before. Michigan's pass pro has not been great, but if that was true there would be a blizzard of charted PRs. I have a reasonable number.
Ace: Yeah, Speight has seen a fair amount of pressure, but he hasn’t been constantly under siege like pre-Moorhead Penn State or the last couple Florida State squads.
BiSB: Those rankings seem qualitatively correct, but quantitatively nuts. Ulizio hasn't been fantastic, 0.5th percentile doesn't pass the smell test.
Brian: Yeah, if that was true Michigan would have three Paris Palmers.
BISB: Like, of the 260 starting tackles in college football, Ulizio is #259? Maybe #258 depending on how they math?
David: While Brian keeps alluding to Speight's lack of mental mistakes, Wilton has made his fare share of poor throws. There is plenty of talk about his mechanics/setting his feet/good-bad Speight...whatever. The point is that he has not been a Rescue QB. And that is basically what everyone had hoped he would be: a guy who could overcome the mistakes of the rest of his offense with good decisions and quality throws. Alas...not yet.
Seth: Speight hasn't faced Hackenberg pressure and also hasn't completely collapsed like Hackenberg. That clip Adam and I alluded to is notable because both are off his back foot with pressure coming. It's not like this is an every-throw occurrence. It's just a sometimes occurrence. The receivers dropping it is a sometimes thing too, as is the pressure. Four INs, four PRs and four drops a game and you've lit half the passing offense on fire.
Ace: Agreed. The passing offense has been bad via death by a thousand cuts.
Which… simultaneously makes me optimistic and pessimistic, I think? It seems like some of these issues should improve. It also seems unlikely they all will.
David: Yay Bye Week soon.
Seth: They still haven't passed to the backs much, and it's not like they haven't had the opportunity with Isaac and Evans out there so often. My optimism comes in visions of Speight learning to check to those guys and oodles of YAC.
Ace: Also, throw to the Ent.
[Eric Upchurch]
BiSB: How many have to improve, though? I feel like they can get by pretty well with RoboSpeight OR receivers helping out BorgeSpeight OR Speight and the receivers getting time to make something happen.
If they get two out of three, I'd feel fantastic.
David: Do we get to pick the 2?
Ace: Yeah, I’d feel the same way, especially since I’m more optimistic the running game will come together. But given some of the more optimistic preseason projections out there, mine included, even missing one phase might kill the higher hopes out there.
The Mathlete: The biggest reason for optimism is the youth/inexperience. Based on where the problems are, there is a very plausible path from Here to Much Better Than Here for the offense. It isn't guaranteed but all the fresh faces mean it's not just a pipe dream to think it's going to improve over the coming weeks.
Seth: Also if you've been watching our rivals, Michigan State's secondary is infested with open MAC receivers and Ohio State's isn't nearly as good as its last several.
The Mathlete: Based on listed starters through the first three weeks of the season, Michigan is 96th in average age for starting OL and last out of 130 teams in WR average age. Young and talented is still young.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
I do not understand the booing, in college football, ever.
If it happens, should never happen here.
Exception: Bad/wrong ref calls.
September 20th, 2017 at 6:59 AM ^
September 20th, 2017 at 8:19 AM ^
Well stated....that's all.
September 20th, 2017 at 9:32 AM ^
May make perfect sense to you; the college mindset probably doesn't differentiate much. I understand the dismay and frustration felt at the Nebraska game.
Still, if you are booing the coaching staff of a college team, you are booing the team.
September 20th, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
September 21st, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
Michigan had a 98% win expentancy. Can we at least not pretend this game was ever in danger of going to Air Force?
Also, you think MSU and Minnesota have better RBs than Isaac? hahaha. oh wait. You're serious? Let me laugh even harder. HAHAHAHAHAHA
Isaac: 7.1 YPC, 9.1 Hlt Yards/Opp, 40.4% Opp rate
Rodney Smith from Minn: 4.0 YPC, 3.4 Hlt Yds/Opp, 30.4% Opp rate
LJ Scott, MSU: 3.8 YPC, 4.5 Hlt Yds/Opp, 30.3% Opp rate (this against only MAC teams)
September 19th, 2017 at 5:45 PM ^
When it comes to QB coaching, it goes with what I've said for a while. I really think Speight has hit his ceiling and it's tough to get more out of the guy. If the threesome of Harbaugh, Fisch and now Pep can't get better play out of him in three years of coaching and starting last season, I don't think there is anymore there to give. He is what he is and hope we can only get a little marginal growth from him from here on out.
I'm kind of tired of the line is always allowing pressure. I think they definitely need to play better, but I have seen plenty of examples where Speight had plenty of time to throw and he still misses his target or forces a ball to the wrong player. I think some can be put on the receivers, but he has missed open guys plenty of times.
I think our RB's have done a good job, both with running the football and pass blocking which makes our passing game more frustrating, because teams are loading the box now daring us to throw and we still struggle.
Play calling can also be a by product of what you think the offense is capable of doing and not turning the ball over. When you have a shaky QB, not the best OL play and WR's not always running crisp routes you are sometimes limited in what you can do, especially with limited space to operate.
I don't think anyone likes excuses, and I have griped about people making excuses for Speight's poor play. But, when it comes to last week, you need to keep in mind that AF is a very good team and tough to play against. Yes they replace a lot of starters but they are usually with upperclassman who have been there for 3 years and know the system inside and out and play very disciplined. You don't have to be a huge DL to be tough to block, speed, technique can make them very good at what they do.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
and Go Blue!
September 19th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
Now Michigan fans are not only disappointed with a relatively close game, we have changed history and Air Force actually won that game?????????????? If I had known that we actually lost, I would be pissed too.
Please explain to me how AF did more than Michigan and still managed to lose by 16 points. The idiots on this board are completely out of control. WTF is going on here? This is insanity.
Michigan was 1/2 inch and a bad holding call from winning a game against a 10 win Mountain West team by 3 TDs and you would think we just got beat 31-0 by Notre Dame again.
If you are so disappointed and tired of Michigan football, go support Alabama and Clemson.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 11:27 PM ^
Every game should be regarded as a tough game, then yes Sparty looks like a tough game.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
It has been my observation (and not only mine) that defense comes together first and then later the offense begins to click. With a young O-Line, you can't expect them to be perfect in game 1 (or 3). You can expect them to rapidly get better so that by game 6 or so, the offense is winning games rather not losing them and relying on the defense to win them.
I am comfortable where we are (thank you Lord for Don Brown) and fully expect that this group of young players will follow the learning curve that has been demonstrated over and over to be in existence. All we need is a one point win every week to win it all.
So, just calm down and carry on.
September 20th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
Too many people came into the season convinced that this years team would be better than last so they now have to face up to their unrealistic expectations. (and imagine what's its going to be like when they actually lose a game...and folks its HIGHLY likely to happen more than once in the next few weeks...brace yourselves).
Thats not on the players, thats not on Speight nor the coaches...that's on fans.
There is no way you replace that many NFL caliber starters and not suffer some fall back. Add to that the fact that UM is dealing with basically 2 virtually empty classes and this is what you get..a super young team learning on the go. In the NFL they would still be in pre-season ironing out their issues...in CFB its sink or swim from game one.
I'm happy with this team..and super excited for the future of the program.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
Given I haven't watched the game again and without the benefit of all 22 but....
Sometimes I feel as though Speight trys to fit contested throws in instead of taking what the defense gives him. Perry is seemingly open a large percentage of the time on a short to intermediate route that gets a 1st down conversion.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
This is my impression as well and I don't understand it. If you're experiencing lots of pressure... and ESPECIALLY if you're struggling with your accuracy in addition... STOP TRYING TO FORCE THE TOUGH THROW WHEN THERE ARE GIMMIES OUT THERE.
He has overlooked Perry on an open short route so many times on 1st and 2nd downs. Speight is not absolved of all blame for ending up in tough 3rd and long situations all the time. He needs to remember that he has ONE receiver with stickum hands, and that receiver is his safety blanket.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^
is conceivably the worst of any P5 team. Unfortunately, that site doesn't provide any hint of a methodology.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^
It's worth mentioning that Harbaugh's offense places a premium on experience in ways that most college offenses don't. It is way more complex than your typical spread. It's bound to take longer for young players to acclimate.
With that said, I understand fans' frustration. It has literally been years since we've had a trustworthy O-line or a game-breaking RB. Michigan has not lucked into plug-and-play players the way other teams seem to for several years. Black looked to be one of those players, so naturally he is out for most of the season now.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
I feel like one way to help the line and keep Speight in rhythm is by using quick passes and a three-step drop but I wonder if the youth of the receivers prevents this. Still, UM has quality TEs so I'd think this would help the offense gel and keep the sticks moving
Plus, that and the running game would open up downfield passes as it may force D-linemen to try and knock down passes and give the line a little help in pass pro. A well timed pump fake and you may buy that extra few seconds for deep routes to open up.
Just a thought...
September 19th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
interesting point re: scheme. I also wonder if simplifying the passing game to short, intermittent, and "hot" routes would help Speight. On a number of the clips I've seen from the game, it appears there are huge portions of the field open for underneath passes, but receivers continue thei routes 10-15 yards. I admittedly have no clue how difficult this type of scheme would be to change, but I wonder if it's an option...
September 19th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^
I understand using TEs to help Ulizio but I would think they can chip and go into an underneath route as a hot along with the RBs. Hard to feel pressure when the ball is out before the rush can be effective.
Maybe even slow the rush by throwing at the lanes created by the rush on the offenses right side? Make those ends think about the pass going over their heads where a good pump fake can be lethal.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^
What worries me with Speight is that he could potentially regress faster than anyone around him improves. We saw Devin Gardner suffer the same fate os David Carr and Christian Hackenberg - his eyes dropped to the pressure and it messed with everything he did. Based on last year and early results this year, that's a real possibility with him.
Heck, you saw Eli Manning get ripped by his coach today for how poorly he played and that's primarily because his left tackle looks like an NFL version of our right tackle.
With all of that being said, I keep reading all of these potential "excuses" for why Speight has performed poorly - big hits, loss of focus, pressure, injury, etc. Those are probably all valid, but it is an ever growing list of excuses. At some point he is what he is. Last year both Chesson and Butt seemed to regress a lot in their performance....but how much of that was Speight being worse than Rudock since you can't use the "receivers are inexperienced" excuse last year?
I think Speight is the clear starter and I have no doubt that the coaches are frantically thinking of ways to help him out....but we are quickly seeing the ceiling with this offense if something doesn't change.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:38 PM ^
Speight please:
throw to Perry
throw to Perry
throw to Perry
seriously if those two get on the same page, suddenly we'll seem like a legit contender.
September 19th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
September 20th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^
Yeah because in 1.5 seconds and a free runner in his face, he's supposed to also scan the field and go through his progressions...
September 19th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 8:56 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:50 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
Shit, that burns...
September 20th, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^
September 20th, 2017 at 8:22 AM ^
Yep...
National Champion Clemson started:
LT - Sophmore
LG - RS Sopmore
C - RS Senior
RG - RS Junior
RT - Sophomore
#1 S&P Offense Oklahoma started:
LT - RS Sophmore
LG - RS Freshman
C - Junior
RG - RS Sophmore
RT - Sophomore
Michigan is returning 54 OL starts this year.
2016 Clemson returned 46 OL starts.
2016 Oklahoma returned 32 OL starts,
September 19th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
minus the accuracy.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
His completion percentages by season were: 51.9, 53.8, 55.4, and 59.2%.
Speight was 61.6% last season. He is at 54.5% now because of a bad first game against a tough defense and all the aforementioned reasons. So you are wrong. Nice try, though.
September 19th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
minus the accuracy.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^
on the 2nd play, the pass routes are not good. speight i believe wanted to go to perry on the out route from the slot, but that was a pick 6 waiting to happen. so he went to crawford on the up route. but crawford was already near the goal line when speight releases the ball, because the snap was at the eight yard line. there is no chance for that play to be completed on a 2nd read. hence, the throw out of the endzone.
i blame the play/crawford's route. had the play called for a post route, he may have been wide open with a longer running distance in the end zone.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^
I don't know, man. I think we as fans naturally want a single object to point to and blame for the ineptitude of the offense. Unfortunately, I don't think it's one single thing; it's a multitude of things within the offensive system. And - with so many underperforming components of a system playing poorly - it's gotta be hard for the coaches to correct.
While I don't think Speight deserves 100% of the blame, he hasn't helped himself. I can appreciate the fact he's had little time in pass-pro, but - when time is available and receivers are open - he gets "happy feet" and sails the ball.
Regarding the receives, route running, and offensive schemes, none of them / it appear to be helping Speight out. It seems like our routes and schemes are asking Speight to constantly push the ball downfield, when shorter routes / hot routes / etc. may get him in a rhythm. Also, given the freak-athletes we have at WR, it seems funny that we aren't doing more to simply get them the ball in space and let them do their thing. IDK...maybe this is a non-expert nitpick.
Finally, the OL = Woof! I don't even know what to say other than, "Wow." I knew this was going to be a challenge, but I didn't think we would be Hoke-ian bad. This has surprised me more than Speight's performance and the scheme. I have no clue how to resolve this issue without entirely compromising our offensive scheme and / or starting over regarding the OL chemistry.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:29 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^
It also seems like the throws he was successful with were very very wide open receivers that the harbaugh effect created with mismatches and strategy. Now that the less experienced receivers are not getting as open Speight must try and throw into tighter windows which IMHO he has never really done. Speights success has mostly been predicated on a functioning offensive game plan that allowed JAke Butt to run around the field untouched. Now the teams seem to have him figured out. Load the box and do a fairly ok job of covering receivers with one DB. Based on his past throws he (and us) have low confidence that he can thread the needle. If we see it I sure he does too. I think he feels that it's better to overthrow than to get picked off. Watch the past five games and then watch any other college football game around the league. There is clear separation of level of talent. This year Experienced receivers along with a suffocating defense has gone to the NFL and now Speight has been exposed for what his talent level really is . That spring game miss should have told us all we needed to really know: Speight is inaccurate. He's always been inaccurate and he probably will continue to be inaccurate ( at least for rest of season) We all know about the Oline and the receivers being young but Speight should be better than this by now. I think he has hit his ceiling. I hope I'm wrong and I hope it's on the receivers and Oline and that Speight is just not getting a fair shake, but why is it so unreasonable to say that he's not good and probably won't get better? Is there ANY throws he has made that showed anyone that he has hidden accuracy ? I'm willing to bet that at some point along this season we will finally see someone write an article about why Speight is not good instead of writing 300 words on why is isn't bad. I'm still excited for this season because the young players will get better but I doubt we will ever really be able to count on Speights arm to win big games.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^
The intro sentence "This two-throw sequence has it all:" sounded like Bill Hader playing Stefon on SNL. I was then moderately disappointed by the video.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
This is simultaneously good and bad news. Woes won't get fixed overnight and fixing one thing won't improve the situation more than 20-30%. But the up side is, the odds of at least 2-3 of those 5-6 things WILL get fixed over time.
So bottom line is we won't see stellar until Speight is gone, the replacement QB is no longer a rookie, and the OL and WR corps mature. Which basically means a good 2-3 years from now. But I do think with the right coaching (scheme and development wise), we could easily see our passing game improve a good 30-60% over the next 4-5 weeks.
Survive Purdue, then use the bye week to slightly tweak the offensive play calling & give these young OL and WRs a shit ton of reps to practice their chemistry, blitz pick-ups, stunt pick-ups, and route running.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
It seems as though since the Florida game, most of the passes have been to the sideline or fades in the endzone; iow, safe passes that are very unlikely to be intercepted. If this is the case, it does make it much easier to defend the pass.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
I'm certainly not with the pitchfork crowd when it comes to Speight, mainly for the deficiencies on the line and with young WRs, but there have been times when he makes inexplicably bad decisions. Two come to mind immediatley from the AF game, one minor and one major, both both should be givens for a quarterback with as much experience as Speight does. The first was not simply throwing it out of bounds on one play where he was headed to the sideline and it was obvious he was going to lose 3-4 yards if he didn't. It didn't look like it even crossed his mind.
The second could have been a disaster and that was when he attempted to throw the ball basically from his back as he was getting sacked. What?! his arm ended up hitting the leg of his own lineman and I believe it was a fumble that M recovered (It's possible it was rule incomplete, but the point was it was he was lucky it wasn't a turnover of the variety that is easily preventable). I was flabergasted that was even a thought in his head and at the same time that Harbaugh's head didn't explode. Mine almost did.
I think it's going to take time to solve many of these issues and am hopeful the D is good enough to get us to Penn State unscathed, but I feel like we're pretty much on upset alert until they prove they have put some of these issues past them. Hopefully one factor is swallowing sections of the playbook for strategic deployment as the season continues (and that it doesn't cost us in the meantime).
Ugh.
September 19th, 2017 at 8:48 PM ^
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