This Week’s Obsession: Outlandish 2016 Predictions
Melanie Maxwell | The Ann Arbor News
The Question:
Make an outlandish prediction for 2016.
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Adam: De'Veon Smith will rush for 1,000+ yards with 5 yards per carry. Smith should have a little more room to run in 2016 thanks to John O'Korn's downfield aptitude, the development of Jehu Chesson from receiver with track speed to receiver with track speed and hands, and an offensive line that will have two years of getting Drevno'd under their belts.
Five YPC is a lofty estimate, but if Smith shows the kind of vision he did in the bowl game it's attainable; he rushed for 109 yards and 4.4 YPC against S&P+'s fifth-ranked run defense. Smith was injured most of the year, and his carries and yards/game dropped as a result. I think he would have gotten double-digit carries in every game had he not been hurt and expect him to in 2016. I also don't think there's another back on the roster who's likely to steal those extra carries. Sure, Kareem Walker will probably play, but I'd be surprised if he gets more than the 55 carries Drake Johnson got in 2015.
[Hit THE JUMP because someone makes a lemon bet on a linebacker]
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Ace: Brandon Peters wins the starting job and turns in a Henne-like freshman season. The setup is pretty similar: a backup who’s been around but hasn’t seen the field is favored to replace a successful departing QB on an offense loaded with returning talent; there are a couple other options, including a heralded true freshman.
This isn’t any knock on O’Korn, who I think will be successful next year if he wins the job (and there’s a very good likelihood of that; these are, after all, outlandish predictions). After seeing him a few times this year, though, including once in person, I believe Peters is the most talented passer to hit campus since Henne, and he’s got the skills in place to make an early impact. He had great command of his high school offense—which was a pass-heavy offense operating from the gun—and displayed excellent arm strength, good decision-making, and a level of touch some QBs never develop.
Having a group of veteran receivers to increase the margin for error helps, too, as we learned in 2004. Peters also has an advantage Henne lacked; he’s an early enrollee who will be on campus as soon as he’s done with the Army game this weekend. If he can absorb the offense, he’s got a good chance to be a four-year starter.
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MGOKNOCK ON WOOD:
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Ace: My other rationale for this: the major question mark for O’Korn is his decision-making, which is usually the concern when starting a freshman. If that’s going to be an issue either way—and hopefully it’s not—then they might as well go with the player with the better long-term outlook, and Peters is that guy.
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Brian: 
I don't think Brandon Peters Is The Worst is applicable anymore since Rudock managed to make my preseason prediction spot-on. Also even Brandon Peters Is Quite Good thinks that BPIQG is going to redshirt, so that is indeed a truly outlandish prediction.
As far as an outlandish prediction, does a guy who's started at left tackle for two years moving to the interior even count anymore? I think we all think that Mason Cole is destined for center this year, which will take a lot of people who don't follow the program in microscopic detail by surprise. So that's a mildly outlandish one, I guess.
My certainly outlandish prediction is that Jeremy Clark is a first or second round pick in next year's NFL draft. Clark had the odd struggle last year but most of the completions that got put on his face reminded me of those that got put on the freshman version of Jourdan Lewis. The back-shoulder corner route against Minnesota, that massively underthrown ball against Indiana spring to mind, and the touchdown OSU managed despite Clark getting in an excellent SHORYUKEN come to mind.
Clark can line up in press with inside leverage against anyone, keep pace, and then use his size to bat the ball away. He didn't get his head around every time but he did so frequently enough that I think he's going to be able to make a bunch of plays on the ball this year, draw comparisons to Richard Sherman, and pique NFL GM's interest in a major way.
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Seth: We are going outlandish (IE we aren’t actually >33% confident this will happen) so I'm going to take a stab at something...well it's pretty out there. That is: Michigan will start a walk on at middle linebacker next year. I'm talking about Dan Liesman, who would have to be convinced to return for a 5th year. I have three arguments to make in his favor though.
1. He stood out to me in the spring game as having a very good grasp of things even when the offense tried that funny stuff Lloyd came up with. He's also the only guy in 2015 to stop De'Veon Smith's momentum in a head to head collision. Speed and athleticism matter for linebackers, but they're tertiary things after "not getting fooled" and "not getting blocked." Desmond Morgan just finished a fine Michigan career despite little to recommend him physically, and Liesman's film looks a lot like Desmond Morgan.
2. Don Brown doesn't just like his linebackers quick. He wants the MLB to be the smartest guy on the team and the leader on the field. Minus Bolden and Morgan who is that? Peppers perhaps. But for two years running Liesman's name has popped up in those bloggish questionnaires the players do as the most intelligent man in the locker room and a guy the other guys turn to.
3. Bah gawd have you seen the other linebackers? I know, I know, they all played ahead of Liesman this year. They also needed the snaps, and have higher upsides.
It's plausible that McCray comes back from injury and wins a job in fall and that Gedeon shines under Brown, and that with Peppers out there you don't need more than two for the bulk of snaps. It's also quite likely we'll see Furbush and Winovich and Wangler's son and freshmen and anything else that looks vaguely like a linebacker on the field next year. But I keep coming back to this thought that in most of those scenarios, especially early in the season, Liesman is likely to be one of the best two linebacker options on the roster. If he's on the roster at all, of course.
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Ace: If Liesman beats out all those guys and Devin Bush, I’ll eat a lemon and the rind.
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David: Michigan will WIN the College Football Playoff.
![bMZXEUe[3]](http://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/bMZXEUe3.gif "bMZXEUe[3]")
There. I said it. We were all thinking it as soon as we read the topic. I thought about Chesson being an All American or Michigan having 5 NFL 1st Rounders or fill-in-the-blank winning the Heisman. But let's be real. This is what we all want. This is why everybody wanted Jim Harbaugh to coach Michigan. The time is now...or will be after a tantalizingly long off-season.
Why, you ask? Because:
The Players. This is why everyone (maybe, maybe not Willie Henry, we'll see) is coming back. Do they love playing together? Sure. Have they formed a deepened brotherhood because of the '13 and '14 seasons and now what happened in '15? You bet. Have they seen what this coaching staff can turn them into? Obviously. But...at least three guys -maybe four or five- are all putting off their paydays because they think they can be a big piece of being the best team in the country. 2015 showed how close Michigan came to having a shot in just Year 1 of Harbaugh. Now, bring almost everybody back for a "Those Who Stay" moment.
Will there be any linebackers? Will there need to be? IF anyone gets through that monstrous DL, there should be more than enough DBs for Michigan to fill in any weaker points in the young linebacking corps (Nickel, Dime, etc). The OL will be the oldest M has had since...yeah. (Seth? I'm sure this edition of Jimmystats will be coming along soon). They may not be ELITE but with (hopefully, continued) new and improved De'Veon Lasik Smith, a (hopefully, continued...again) healthy Drake Johnson and a stable of touted freshmen RBs, they may not have to be. Who is the most talented pass-catching target? I actually don't know. And not for the same reasons I wasn't sure back in August. Pick one of the three and I'll say that you're right! Who here is worried about Harbaugh developing a QB or finding a FB? Oh, no one? Me either. Could this roster be better? Absolutely. But it still looks pretty frickin' good.
The Schedule/Opponents.
Diagram by Seth
I actually think 2016 sets up better for Michigan than 2015 did. The timing of the Utah game kinda put Michigan behind the Eight Ball to start the season. Michigan's first five 2016 games will be at home. The non-conference is not very appetizing but giving O'Korn/Peters/Gentry/Hill a few games to get acclimated may not be the worst thing. Wisconsin does come to Ann Arbor and while they did beat USC a week ago, they are not the 'late aughts Badgers' that were striking fear into everyone's eyes. While MSU and OSU are both on the road, both outfits lose a considerable about of talent (Inline image 1and MSU loses most of the DL, several OL, Cook, Burbridge, etc). After Michigan beat them until they didn't...I think that will be a fun game in East Lansing. OSU probably has a 6 star for every player they lose, but we'll see how cohesively they can come together...and what Don Brown can do to stop them. At Iowa City can be tricky as always. The thing is Michigan can probably afford to lose a game (aside from maybe the OSU game). They would obviously need to win the B10CG, but that's just how it is now.
Jim Harbaugh. This is why he's here, man. If you don't think he's already game-planning with Bo every night for each opponent and scouting every player for weaknesses, you've encountered a different man than I have. He had this team believing a Title was in sight in 2015 and he wasn't TOO far off. No way he doesn't know the landscape and see this roster chalked full of upperclassmen and realize what kind of opportunity he has. He developed this team from eh to very good in a year. Next year: very good to...Elite? Yeah...Elite.
Obviously, many injuries and idiots can throw wrenches in plans, etc...but all things being equal, Who's Got It Better Than Us?
January 7th, 2016 at 12:25 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
That is the worst Michigan nonconference schedule that I can recall. Notre Dame chickening out on such short notice really screwed us for 2016.
2015 F/+ ratings (out of 128 FBS teams):
Hawaii #120
Central Florida #128
Colorado #94
2014 5-year Program FEI ratings (which will undoubtedly drop significantly when the 2015 version is calculated given 2015 performance):
Hawaii #97
Central Florida #35
Colorado #103
We were a little unlucky in how UCF became so terrible so fast. Their 5-year Program FEI is actually better than Michigan's (#47).
January 7th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
Colorado has a three-year starter at QB (Sefo Liufau) coming back and he owns over 50 team records. The rest of the team may not be stellar, but a hot QB could make the game at least interesting if our LBs struggle.
If Scott Frost employs an Oregon style offense, that can make that game interesting for at least a half.
I don't think we'll lose those games, but they should at least provide challenges that help us out greatly going into B1G play, especially Colorado and their senior QB.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:37 PM ^
UCF was the worst team in FBS this year. If you are concerned with UCF, you are concerned about any potential opponent in FBS.
Colorado has shown a pulse this year, but they are still one of the worst teams in the Power 5 conferences. And all these nonconference games are at home. It doesn't get any easier than 2016's nonconference schedule. If BiSB were making an early Opponent Watch for 2016, the Fear Level for these 3 games would be a 2 or less.
January 7th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
It looks like a heaven sent now (which is exactly why ND backed out in the first place). The overall schedule is plenty tough enough given the conference crossovers to go to the CFP at 12-1. An 11-2 record, even against a very tough schedule likely wouldn't be enough (see Stanford this year).
As a fan, I miss that game overall, but for 2016, with a tough slate of crossovers and needing to break in a new QB, not having to play a coin flip non-conf game improves the odds of a CFP berth.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:42 PM ^
2016 would have been the ideal year to have a marquee nonconference schedule. Yes, we are breaking in a new QB, but we are returning around 17 of 22 starters on a top-15 team. I don't know if it is because of how bad Michigan has been the last decade, but there is a fearfulness in our fanbase that needs to be exorcised.
And that nonconference schedule could be a hindrance when comparing resumes if we end up winning the conference. Way too early to assume anything about the playoff selection, but that SOS is not going to help. I would much rather have played the 2017 nonconference schedule with the Cowboys Classic (vs. Florida) next year rather than 2017. 2017 is the year with which we should be more concerned as our depth chart will look like Seth's diagram for OSU in 2016. But with Harbaugh, I am not that concerned about that right now.
January 7th, 2016 at 8:13 PM ^
But you said it's screwing us next year, and I'm just saying it doesn't screw us for the CFP, and it almost certainly increases our CFP chances, however marginal, because we have such a tough conf schedule that our SOS is going to be plenty good enough.
There is a very, very small chance that a 12-1 (or obviously 13-0) B1G champ is ever getting left out of the CFP, no matter the non-conf schedule (especially now with 9 conf games).
So the only way we'd ever be helped (in terms of CFP) by playing tough non-conf games is if win them, lose two conf games but still win the conference title, and then beat out another two loss conference champ based on SOS. That is literally the only scenario in which it helps us.
That's less likely to occur than getting 2015 Stanforded, i.e. playing a really tough schedule, losing a tough non-conf game and getting left out because of number of losses. And that's not based on fear, it's probabilities.
Even though the odds are marginally better for CFP without a tough non-conf game, I prefer we play those fun games each year. 2016 is just a uniquely good year to take advantage of a weak non-conf, if we have to do it, because 1) 12-1 or 11/10-2 is a very real possibility so it could be the difference (as opposed to 2017 when a possible loss to FL is unlikely to be the difference between CFP or not) 2) We have a tougher conference schedule than usual so little to no chance of SOS being a hindrance 3) breaking in a new QB.
Did it screw us out of a fun college football game? Yes. But that's about it.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^
Just looking at Ohio State's diagram is ridiculous.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^
Shame UM doesn't play them early in the season. The last few years have seen OSU struggle a bit on offense to find cohesion, but by the time they reach the UM game? It's all figured out and clicking. This year would be a great year to play them early. OSU lucked out to have their two toughest games at the end of the season. As usual.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^
And to go with this, while MSU loses a lot as well, their schedule sets up quite nice as well. Toughest road game is at PSU? Toughest road cross over is at Illinois? Only 4 road games while getting both OSU and UM (and UW) at home? Man, I wish UM's schedule from this year was next year's schedule.
This is a very obvious statement, but man, beating MSU is going to be critical to owning a tie-breaker against them. Obviously I think the UM/OSU game is the championship game.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
And if Indiana is again CHAOS, I think that will be a hard game to win since they will likely be starting slowly on offense with a new QB. I won't be surprised if they leave September with a couple losses. By time they play us, I think everyone will understand that Connor Cook was the difference between those BCS/CFP bowls and playing in the Alamo Bowl every year.
January 7th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
MSU, but I'd bet they lose at least 2 games against non-UM B1G opponents even with the favorable schedule. They lose a ton of talent and squeaked by in nearly every game this year. Had a super lucky season despite all the talent. I think they'll be more like the 2012 version of MSU than a division contender. Meaning that game could be losable if we win all other games. Agree that OSU should be for the div title.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
Yes, but for once M will have a solid team returning with very few holes to fill. And, well, Harbaugh 2.0.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:47 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
Very true. But with what UM is bringing back, I think an early season match-up favors UM. Late season give OSU time to close that gap.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:55 PM ^
We had our own kinks to work out. We lost to Utah because we played them too early.
But anyway, I don't want to exploit circumstance when playing MSU or OSU. I know the difference on their end is whining or whining even more, but I wanted to beat them THIS year, when they still had many key players from '13 and '14 around. They eventually got knocked off their high horses, but not in the way I wanted.
Beating MSU and OSU will never get old, but this was our last chance to beat a bunch of guys who now move on and get to say, "I never lost to Michigan," for the rest of their goddamn lives.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
Right on. I think this year is an opportunity to just be the better team and beat them both. Barring injuries, I find it hard to believe Michigan won't put a better team on the field than those guys. And, hopefully, we'll have a coach's 2nd year moving forward, rather than regressing (which I have little doubt will happen).
January 7th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
That Sept 17 game at Oklahoma could be a doozy for OSU next year for this reason.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^
...and I'll be convinced that they're reloaded and ready for another CFP run. I don't think JT Barrett is good enough to make up for all the skill players they lose.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^
UM would probably be playing OSU the first weekend in October every year and we'd be able to take advantage of their personnel loses.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
So you're Dave Brandon sent here to convince us that moving the OSU game towards the middle of the season is the best thing to do. I see ya Freddie
January 7th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
makes me smile, as it reminds me of how Urban Meyer, with all that talent, just flat out blew the chance to defend his NC with his pathetic game plan and play calling against an obviously inferior MSU team playing without its starting QB.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^
I believe I'm ready to run through a wall now.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:31 PM ^
im with David
January 7th, 2016 at 12:31 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^
I guess that Shane was rated highly before the injuries for a reason. If JH can turn Rudock into an NFL draft pick, then maybe there's a chance he can do something with a guy who seems to at least have the physical tools to be a really good QB.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^
Smith will run for 5 ypc and well over 1,000 yards for the following reasons:
- The OL will be a lot better at run-blocking in year 2 of Drevno and with 4 starters back.
- The raw numbers will look a lot better with an easier schedule
- Smith is criminally underrated by Michigan fans because he was held back by terrible blocking (107th in the nation in opportunity rate)
January 7th, 2016 at 12:39 PM ^
My biggest concern for next year is that the last month is brutal. At MSU, at Iowa, at OSU and then the championship game is a brutal slate even if OSU and MSU lose a lot. By the end of November OSU will have replaced their losses with guys who are Sophomores and Juniors from top 3 recruiting classes with a full season in the program. Even if Michigan is favored in each of thsoe games, winning all 4 will be a tall task.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
You have to factor in that OSU and MSU are losing a lot. UM should be getting better and those two certainly aren't. Rivalry games are tricky though so I can see OSU and MSU being tricky. I also have faith in the staff to have the team ready regardless of where they play.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
NOOOBODDYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!
January 7th, 2016 at 12:47 PM ^
happy if any of these predictions come true. Reach for the stars boys, Harbaugh can take us there
January 7th, 2016 at 12:42 PM ^
Outlandish Prediction: We see less of Peppers on offense as other weapons develop but his production goes way up.
January 7th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:47 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:59 PM ^
Man, I'm fucking pumped! I've been drinking green tea all Goddamned day!
January 7th, 2016 at 1:02 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:04 PM ^
Peppers will be used sparingly on offense, but when he is, the opposing defense will never be sure if he's the target or a decoy. In that regard, I expect a lot of teams to call a T.O. as soon as they see his number on the field in order to change their diapers.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^
My Outlandish Optimistic Prediction for 2016:
MGoBlog wins the Pulitzer Prize for journalism.
MARK IT.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^
A linebacker will lead the team in TFLs.
Yes, it's outlandish, but here's the rationale. It's no secret now that our D-line is elite, and when early opponents watch our tape from last season, our linebackers are relatively passive. Some of that was by nature, some because Durkin was much more of a DC than a linebackers coach, and some due to the scheme. But Brown, from what I hear, is much more aggressive with blitzes and last year's starters are all gone.
So you'll have opponents watching last year's tape of our passive read-and-react linebacker play and terrifying D-line, preparing to stop the latter. On our side, Brown is bringing in a new corps of linebackers and coaching them to blitz. Even after opponents realize their error, it's not like our D-line is any less elite so they can't just abandon the D-line to focus on the guys piling up the TFLs. As a result, despite their inexperience or perhaps because they're too inexperienced to master "read and react" play, our young linebackers will be tearing through the gaps with absurd regularity.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
Isaac leads the team in rushing yards.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^
But I agree with you. His comments late in the year seem to suggest he finally gets what he has to do to play, and that he is determined to do so. If focused, with his size and speed, I think it can happen.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
I think it's fair to say Michigan is back to being Michigan circa 2006. The only question for me, will be development of the quarterback and offense. The Oline ought to be solid and workmanlike even if there are position changes. The receiving corps, once a huge worry, is now a major strength that will strike fear into opposing defenses. Plenty of running back depth with only the development of fullback and backup blocking the primary issue.
Really, the one questionmark on this team offensively will be personally handled by the most effective quarterback coach in the country. Any coach who can make Alex Smith, Kapernik and Jake Rudock not just winning quarterrbacks, but push them to new heights of career achievement has passed the test on whether to worry about Michigan quarterback play going forward.
I don't think I ever gave Lloyd as much credit for turning Michigan's qb depth chart into a who's who of playing talent. Harbaugh just gets more attention for making things happen and deservedly so.
When I think of next year, and I think that Peppers is even a first consideration for the offense, he can be a much more effective weapon for this team and a potential Heisman candidate.
If Michigan lands Gary, and Henry comes back, Bryan Mone returns with great vigor along with Ryan Glasgow, Michigan will ride that DL depth into a ball-hawking takeaway machine. That is what makes a great defense, super tough and elite. The secondary ought to be lights out with three potential starting corners and experienced safeties in Hill and Thomas to go along with Peppers and Kinnell subbing in.
I expect coach Brown to figure out the LB situation and turn it into a strength. Michigan has the perfect coaches for its two critical areas of need to find answers with developmental effectiveness and creativity.
For Michigan, the real question next year is why not go all the way, you are only limited by the idea that you shouldn't think that way when you should be asking, why not us?
January 7th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
The year we steamrolled the Big Ten, got exposed by OSU, then got destroyed by USC. Honestly, it wasn't that much better than last season. We got destroyed by OSU but at least we won our bowl game.
I think this year, at its very best (but not dreaming), won't be familiar to even the oldest Michigan fans. I don't think it'll be like 1997 or 2006 or even any Bo year (as good as he was, he never won a championship). It'll take a lot of things going right to make the CFP, including luck. But while Harbaugh is in some ways a throwback to the Michigan we all know and love, he's also his own unique beast. Unlike Carr, he's not going to underutilize his offense. Unlike Bo, I think Harbaugh will be very successful in bowl games. Harbaugh's ceiling is the most successful UM football coach since Fielding Yost, and I think he returned to Ann Arbor to be just that.
January 7th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^
You cannot compare where the program is now to 2006. At that time a malaise was already beginning to settle into the program and we were on the long downward side of Carr's tenure as coach from the 1997 peak. Today the program is ascendant with Harbaugh at the helm. The feel is completely different.
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