This Week's Obsession: Head Coach Roulette
[Disclaimer: We wrote these yesterday before the Jerry Kill news, when open head coaching jobs were a lot more fun to talk about.]
RR to da U?
The Question:
Choose the best plausible fit for five open FBS head coaching jobs.
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The Responses:
Mathlete:
SOUTH CAROLINA: Mack Brown. Fits the aging former National Championship winning coach profile. Gets Mack Brown off of my TV.
MARYLAND:
USC: Todd Graham [Insert Dream Job joke here]. Seems like he's been at Arizona State forever in Graham years. Actually could be the right mix of personality for the Trojans.
ILLINOIS: Brady Hoke. From the school that brought back Ron Zook, why wouldn't they bring back Hoke. It would stick it to their arch-rival Michigan. Hoke would be a good fit for the recruiting base, doesn't have a documented issue with the color orange and his track record looks pretty good by Illinois standards.
MIAMI: Jim Tressel. When Miami has built their best teams, they've been built around loading up on talent with little regard for the NCAA. Tressel seems like the perfect fit.
[After the jump: more bad ideas, and some that are too good]
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Brian: Brett has an excellent point. Assume that I want Mack Brown to get all these jobs so I no longer have to listen to Perd Mackley describe how many points an extra point is worth. Other than the highly qualified Mack Brown, though, this is who I'd go after if I was the school in question and I didn't hit a Hail Mary.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Justin Fuente, Memphis. Fuente is a hot name and might get scooped up by someone higher up the totem pole, but the Gamecocks are probably about his level right now. Fuente reclaimed a dire Memphis program and while Not That USC isn't a terrific job, the SEC East is not the SEC West. You can win there, and with just one division crown you'll be on a list at even bigger programs.
MARYLAND: Brett left this blank. Pretty much agree. Your financial situation is going to be bad for the next half-dozen years, you just sold a home game so you could play PSU at an NFL stadium, and have fun storming the castle in a brutal-and-only-gettting-worse Big Ten East. I submit that every Big Ten West job is better than Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana just because of your schedule.
Prepare for an offseason of Dino photos on every coaching rumor thread. [via Twitter] |
But someone's got to do it. I'd go with Mike Locksley, their current interim. Seriously. The one thing he can really do is recruit, he's cheap, I'm not holding New Mexico State tenures against anyone, and he is so tight with the area. I could also see Dino Babers, who is a MAC du jour coach but importantly comes from the Baylor tree and is lighting people up. Maryland can get receivers. Maryland still has Dwayne Haskins committed. Bayloring is feasible.
ILLINOIS: I assume Matt Campbell of Toledo is not an option, if only because going back to the Rocket well after grabbing Tim Beckman will cause the city of Champaign to collectively projectile vomit.
But it should probably be Matt Campbell anyway, provided he manages to get through an interview without setting his face on fire. He took over for Beckman; it's pretty clear he was the reason Beckman had any success,as he was the OC when the Rockets were good under the Hat obsessive. Over the last four years the Rockets are 22-6 in the MAC; this year they have wins over two P5 teams in Iowa State and Arkansas. That's a longer and more meaningful track record of success than your average MAC du jour, and frankly I don't think Illinois is getting anyone better.
MIAMI: As I mentioned in a UV, Rich Rodriguez. Yeah, Rich is more likely to get fired from Miami if things don't work out but Arizona has a Maryland problem as the #5 program in its division in terms of resources and recruiting. The 'Canes have problems. So many problems. But RR can coach an offense and has tons of experience recruiting the muck. Put him in proximity to that South Florida talent and I guarantee you Miami's not losing any games 58-0. 58-56, maybe. But he's a fit. At worst the 'Canes will be fun as hell under RR.
USC: Tom Herman. You knew this was coming. Tom Herman is good at coaching. Tom Herman can adapt to a pro-style system for a bit; he coped just fine with Cardale Jones. Tom Herman is the kind of guy who can deal with the USC crap you have to deal with, and he's very young--big long term upside there for a guy who is probably not an NFL fit.
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Seth:
MIAMI (YTM): Rich Rodriguez. Brian talked about this one on WTKA and I was instantly convinced. It's the Michigan job in reverse: everything new is welcome, every ounce of swag is appreciated, he's one of a very few who'd fit the tight-ass administration's cleanliness guidelines. Rich Rod is already well practiced at recruiting space ninjas from the swamp; now imagine how Jimbo Fisher would enjoy having his high-priced defense chase around the Pahokee rabbit-chasers in the Florida heat every year! Shell out for a top of the line D.C. (plenty with Miami ties to choose from) and you're in business.
He wasn't even angry. [via LSJ] |
ILLINOIS: P.J. Fleck. Illinois should divert its entire Big Ten check and possibly the Mississippi River to get their slam dunk candidate before somebody else does. Fleck played and coached at NIU, and Illinois could roll out a ton of possibility, with a cushy Big Ten West, a roster that's not too far away from competing, an institution with enough tradition to hold onto whatever he builds, and enough time since they were good to make New Champaign all his.
MARYLAND: Brady Hoke. Brady Hoke is a great guy. He arrived at Michigan and immediately went 11-2 and won a BCS bowl, before falling on hard times because he had to work with Rich Rodriguez's players. Hoke has recruited the MD-DC-VA region very well (Countess, Canteen, Poggi, Watson, Green, Speight). Despite this resume, he's surprisingly affordable; in fact he's known to accept jobs without even asking for pay (his agent will do that once you've made the announcement). Hoke would immediately turn around the flagging defense, bring back an atmosphere of toughness and accountability, and his assured success at Maryland would be a constant reminder to arch-rival Michigan that all that glitters is not gold.
No I am not just saying this because I want Maryland to shrivel up and die in a pool of their own incompetence in just enough time to be worthless to the Big Ten when the cable industry collapses and it's time to cut bait. You should tooootally do this Maryland.
SOUTH CAROLINA Mark Dantonio. This one I'm not at all kidding about. The money won't be different (MSU has a huge retention bonus in his contract), but the former Gamecocks defensive back has done all he can at Michigan State. If he leaves now he's a hero; if he waits five years he's George Perles. There's a lot of rebuilding once Connor Cook can't paper over every problem, and Dantonio's about to turn 60. Rather than spend his last five years angrily pounding away in the top-heavy Big Ten East, he can trade in Ohio State and Michigan every year for Florida and Tennessee in the SEC East.
PURDUE: Bob Stitt. If you question my inclusion of a job that's technically still Hazell's go see the front page of Hammer and Rails yesterday. Purdue was at its best when it pulled a cutting edge spread fool out of the Rocky Mountains. Stitt is way more accomplished than Joe Tiller was before he came to West Lafayette. And Bob specializes in quarterbacks, knows how to work in an academically oriented institution (Mines is serious about that), has always won with the kind of talent disadvantage that's par for the rails, and would bring an exciting, high-flying, no-punting brand of football back to the place that still calls itself the "Cradle of Quarterbacks." With Stitt and a new stadium Purdue could be the kind of program that averages 8-4 and goes to Indianapolis once or twice, rather than the drag on the conference they are now.
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Ace:
Miami: Mark Mangino. It's destiny.
Illinois: Ditka. Next question.
South Carolina: Steve Spurrier. Proven winner in the SEC, can take a bad-to-decent program to the next level, and... what's that? Oh. Never mind.
Maryland: Lane Kiffin. He's a man. He's 40. It's time for another shot.
USC: If there's a man who can handle having his dirty laundry aired out in public, it's Coach Snoop.
October 28th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
Perd Mackley. Perfection.
October 28th, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^
I want Dantoni to stay at MSU for another 10 years, so he has to stew in defeat for a decade while Harbaugh calls him little brother.
Edit: RR at Miami would be very fun and a terrific fit. I hope he goes there and torments FSU forever.
October 28th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
Also if he leaves now or in the next couple years, do they get Narduzzi? pls no
October 28th, 2015 at 6:48 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
Thing about Tom Herman- Texas may actually be a better fit for him than USC. I know there is not technically an opening there but it seems likely either this year or next. He has most of his coaching roots in Texas/great plains. Whatever happens I just hope he gets a top-end job sooner than later because if we get lucky and things do go south for Meyer at OSU at some point in the next few years, he seems like the most obvious (and scariest) replacement.
Also, from this distance, it seems like USC is having the same problems Michigan had when everyone seemed to think "Michigan Man" was the only prerequisite for the job. It is hard to imagine them getting someone from the outside who has never coached at USC before without a major cultural change there.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
their remaining schedule isn't that challenging either - @Iowa St, Kansas, @WVU, Texas Tech, @Baylor.
Iowa St and Kansas should be wins. WVU and TTech toss ups and it remains to be seen how Baylor is with a new QB. After starting the season 1-4, they could actually end with a fairly decent record over the final 7 games.
October 28th, 2015 at 1:44 PM ^
How has Pelini's name not come up anywhere? He can get you to 9 wins year in and year out (that's all he can get you, but still - 9 wins).
October 28th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
Illinois will inevitably screw up the hire, Minny will jump in, be a consistent 7-9 win team in the B1G West, and he'll eat that trophy scalpin' shit up full bore for Minnesota. The Gophers are probably the most EPL team out there in that they play for trophies more than division titles (The JUG, The PIG, The AXE)- they're basically Everton.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
I think Claeys is a real candidate for Minny as well. He's basically got a 5 game tryout. If Minny makes a bowl game, I think he gets the job. Minnesota's hoping they have a Pat Fitzgerald and not a Bobby Williams.
October 28th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^
Booby Williams, and he might just be the greatest MSU coach of all time(at losing to Michigan), love that guy.
MSU should give him another shot when Dantonio leaves for South Carolina, he can start out the interview by promising he won't lose to Michigan by a score worse than 49-3.
October 28th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
If they finish the year well they may just keep the staff intact and take the interim tag off of Claeys. Most of those guys have been together (under Kill) for 10, 15 years and followed him up the ladder. This might be a situation where promoting from within is a better idea than jumping into the coaching carousel particularly with as many jobs as are open this time around with the usual limited pool of attractive candidates.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
Would that have been the reason that Spurrier was at Ann Arbor a few weeks ago? To influence his possible replacement. Interesting.
October 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
I still have no idea why Spurrier was in Ann Arbor. The only thing I can think of at all was ESPN was seeing what would happen if they put him in front of the camera. The idea here of course would be they would be their next "funny but knowledgeable" commentator.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
"Brady Hoke is a great guy. He arrived at Michigan and immediately went 11-2 and won a BCS bowl, before falling on hard times because he had to work with Rich Rodriguez's players"
I think he fell on hard times for many more other reasons than having to work with Rich Rod players.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
Apparentl you may not have noticed Seth's post was dripping with sarcasm.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
...did I miss the sarcasm!? My bad. My sarcasm meter must be off.
Nothing to see here. Move along...
October 28th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^
Fleck to Minn or Ill
Fuente to MD
Miami for rodriquez
Hoke to Western
Whittingam to USC. I know his Mormon background and all that but he would basically be their McElwain; just a good coach can do more with less who will finally be afforded glitzy talent.
Not sure Herman is going to get a P5 offer after 1 year at a mid major.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
My hesitation with Whittingham is honestly more related to the fact that he's a Utah lifer who's had a lot of success at the program and seems to be getting it really rolling within the PAC-12. I just can't see him leaving and I especially can't see him leaving for USC.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
Hoke to Minny seems like a better fit. I don't think Hoke is going to coach at a MAC school at this point. And Herman could definitely get a legit P5 offer after one year if he goes 12-0 or 11-1.
October 28th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
chose Kill over Hoke in 2010. I don't see Hoke's stint at Michigan convincing them to hire him this time. Fair or not, I think the Shane Morris incident will make more schools wary than will last year's 5-7 record. And Minnesota, having played in that game, is about the last school that would hire him, at least now.
October 28th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
but not from top tier programs like USC. He would probably be wise to stay in Houston until a really good opportunity arises.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
RR doesn't offer anything new these days on offense, and gives no indication he's any more concerned about defense now than he was at Michigan. He wouldn't last any longer in Coral Gables than he did in Ann Arbor.
If the people in Tucson are truly serious about forcing him out, they're delusional. Arizona ain't USC. It's not even UCLA. You have to know who you are.
October 28th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
If the people in Tucson are truly serious about forcing him out, they're delusional.
Not to that point yet.
Sports radio talk on Monday after the loss to Washington State had turned to criticizing the fan base for not being more energetic in its support. U of A football fans are not that fervent.
The next four weeks will be interesting ... at Washington, at USC, home against Utah, then at Arizona State. They're looking at 5-7 (worse case), 6-6 / 7-5. That won't trigger any action, but it'll definitely make 2016 be a year of some scrutiny.
By the way, in general UofA fans don't think of themselves as USC or UCLA. I think they'd be mostly satisfied with 9-win seasons, a win over ASU, and the occasional division or Pac-12 championship. 2014 changed that, at least a bit ... the 10-2 regular season put the taste of national prominence in the minds of some. 2015 is proving to be a disappointment. So a reset back to lesser expectations is needed.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
A wise man once said "There's nothing worse than a 7 who thinks she's a 9"
October 28th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
a 4 or a 5 who thinks she's a 9 is definitely worse.
October 28th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
He's not getting fired this season. Not only did he make over $3 million last year, but he has an enormous retention bonus that will kick in soon. It's somewhere near $1 million per year. If Miami is able to spend that kind of money, which seems unlikely, I don't see them targeting RR.
October 29th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
Plus Josh Groban is about as far away as you can get from the type of culture and type of kids they want to have. He's a sentimental redneck, he's totally not what Miama wants or needs.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
mentioned?
Dantonio will not go to SC because the competition is brutal. He is satisfied beating vastly inferior teams albeit by slim margins.
RR isn't going anywhere. He has a cushy job without immense expectations. Takin Miami would put him in the hot seat immediately.
Brady Hoke's brand has been tarnished badly. Nothing worse than being labelled as a good recruiter but cannot develop players or coach. Recruiting would become impossible.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Shhhhhhh!
Ixnay on Urkinday.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
Bob Stitt is 4-3 at Montana. I like Stitt, but going 4-3 at a place like Montana is not a good sign for being able to take over Purdue and turn it around. I am sure Stitt will do fine, but I'm not sure he's exactly proving it yet.
Also think Maryland should grab Ken Niumatalolo from Navy. He's an experienced coach, has a system thats just different enough to create an advantage if done right and he's already in the area. To me that would be a perfect, take a risk hire and gives Maryland the chance to carve out a program identity.
RR at Miami would be fun, and although I think he would be crazy to leave Arizona(because of the program ceiling fans are realistic about what to expect even if they're grumbling a biot about the defense), Florida was where he moved the family to during his year as a TV analyst.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
That could work. Paul Johnson has done pretty well at G-Tech with the same system. Would coach N take it, though?
October 28th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
Coach Ken can certainly get the job done, but he'd have to bring several staffers with him. OC Jasper is nearly indispensible. And there's been rumblings Jasper could leave for an HC job.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
Wherever coaches go where it doesn't necessarily mean it is the logical or best fit choice.
We got RR and the country was WTF? Coach search committees can do some out-of-left field stuff sometimes.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
West Virginia declared war. The State of Michigan was WTF? The rest of the country was "different, but great get / should fix the slow Wolverines".
October 28th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^
Brady Hoke did actually run a .500 program at Ball State and was decent at SDSU. He might actually be an okay coach at a school like Maryland or Illinois if he doesn't have Dave Brandon hovering over him and his assistants making "personnel recommendations" all the time. If he made Maryland a perennial .500 team with an occasional 8-4 season that SHOULD be enough to make them happy.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
If all you're doing at a MAC program is .500, that's not much of a recommendation.
Not to mention that he got to .500 because he uncorked one truly good season in 2010.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
Being a perennial .500 with an occassional 8-4 wasn't enough to keep Friedgen around.
An occassional 8-4 isn't going to be easy playing in the Big Ten east. OSU is a stud, UM appears headed that way and MSU will probably be pretty solid as long as Dantonio is around. Throw in PSU who's usually decent and you probably need an easy non-conference schedule and/or easy crossover games with the West division to have an 8-4 type season.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
It looks like they're going to have booster money to spend on a big name coach. Whether they can attract one is to be determined. UA wants them to make a splash. I'd say there's no chance they'd settle for Hoke. Someone like Dino Babers brings some excitement and would be a much better fit.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
Look at last year Michigan vs this year Michigan. Dude had a stacked team and managed to go 5-7. Imagine what he could do with the talent levels at Illinois? Several 2, 3, 4 win seasons is not out of the question
October 28th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
If you are hiring Brady Hoke at MD you concede 3 games a year before you even begin the year - OSU, UM, MSU. So your ceiling is 9 wins. Period. All those coaches are not just superior to Hoke but another galaxy. And that's before all the rest of the games where MD would have equal talent to opponents that Brady would go .500 in. You are talking 5 win seasons with Hoke with the talent MD would get.
I'd take my chances with a young guy at that point whose floor is Hoke.
You can do better at MD with that UA money and now the Big 10 money rolling in.
People really need to look at Hoke's record - his Ball State program took 6 years to build and all he built was a team not a program. When you build a program it leaves something for the next coach. The year after HHoke left his program imploded - he built little. Compare to what Jerry Kill left at Northern Illinois. Or Urban did at Utah.
Also this "great recruiter" stuff is a bit off - he didnt recruit much talent at all in retrospect on offense. On paper yes but his personnel evaluations were off - we have a great staff now and we dont suddently have a ton of talent on offense - that is Hoke's doing.
It was on hte side of the ball he knew well he recruited well. Also he had the Michigan brand behind him. No one said he was a great recruiter like PJ Fleck is in the MAC. So he will have the MD brand not the UM brand. And he lives off recruiting because in game coaching and development are weaknesses. And he cant pick position coaches if his life depended on it.
I dont get the people who think Hoke will get a P5 job. He just is not anything more than a .500 coach at best.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
On another note, I realize I just opened a can of worms that probably ruined everybody's day, given that we are now rehashing all the reasons hiring Hoke was such a terrible, awful idea. Sorry everyone.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
Not sure I agree about Seth's comment on Dantonio: "If he leaves now he's a hero."
Sure, maybe in 10 years he's a hero, but right now they would be pissed. They all think Dantonio is at his last stop. It would be devastating to them if he suddenly left while MSU is at their peak.
I hope he goes.
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