Upon Further Review 2022: Defense vs. Colorado State
Help, what are all these words? The UFR Glossary.
Substitution Notes: Backups got a lot of play. Morris and Harrell were the starters at edge, with Taylor Upshaw matching them for snaps as Morris slid down to DT for pass rush packages. Backups were Derrick Moore and Braiden McGregor, with spot appearances at weakside for Eyabi Anoma. DTs were Mazi and Jenkins with Graham and Benny rotating in (more for Jenkins than Smith) and a third team of Rooks and Goode. Safety was Rod Moore and Moten, who rotated with Paige until Moore came out with the starters for Kolesar. Sainristil held down nickel all game, including when CSU went 2TE. CB was DJ Turner and Gemon Green mostly with Will Johnson rotating in for a drive here and there.
Formation Notes: Updating the “Hi” column this year to provide more information on the secondary alignment. Press/Off are self-explanatory. “Fld” or “Bdy” mean only the field or boundary CB is playing off. Reminder that "Hat" (as in: tip o' the…) means the other team's player did a thing all on his own. It can be positive (helped) or negative (nice job, guy on other team).
CSU's favorite formation was a 3-wide with the TE half-flexed. Michigan's formations were mostly the same as last year's plus this 5-1 look from Nickel personnel (that's Barrett at the top). I called it "Nk 5-1"
They also rolled out a 3-3-5 look with Upshaw (on the 45 below the hash) dropped back like a LB. Nk 3-3-5.
And this was the look before the 4th and 7 strip-six, which I called "Y-Stack" because the SS, WLB, and Edge are all over the TE, with Paige down near the LOS. Michigan brought the house.
On epithets, pseudonyms, sobriquets, and general patronymity: When I say "Green" I mean Gemon; I'll use "German" when it's his brother. The Johnson is Will, and if Quinten plays he can be Q-Jo. "Moore" is Rod Moore, and Derrick Moore is "D-Mo." The Pollards are going by their first names, Micah (the LB) and Myles (the CB). NHG=Nikhai Hill-Green. Juice=Julius Welschof. And Kody Jones is K.Jones for the purposes of future-proofing. Apologies to the people who asked me to use full names, but the tradeoff is fewer mistakes.
Also "PR" means pressure, "cov" is coverage, and "RPS" is rock-paper-scissors, IE effects of the play calls. Let's do this!
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Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O20 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Tite | 2 off | Run | Stretch | Mullings | 5 | 0.09 | |
The Tite is an under formation that gets Morris(-0.5) doubled and shoved back a yard before he can fight through. Mullings(-2) is supposed to react when the line shifts but stayed inside and allowed the Flex TE to crack him. Looks scary for a moment but Sainristil(+0.5) pushes his CB upfield to set a new edge, and Moore(+2) blasts down through traffic to stick for a minimal gain. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 5 | Pistol Str Demi H-fly | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Bubble Screen | Sainristil | 8 | 0.87 |
Motion meant to outflank M, Sainristil(+0.5) beat back the TE to force this to the edge where Turner(-1) was slow to attack and allowed room on the sideline to pick up the 1st. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 1st | 10 | Empty Demi RB-Flare | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | TE Snag | Mullings | 9 | 1.38 |
Colson(-1) got too far up on the flare and Mullings(-1c, Cov-2) didn't replace. Easy pitch and catch with trundle YAC. | ||||||||||||
O42 | 2nd | 1 | Pistol Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 press | Run | Counter Trey | Colson | 3 | -0.23 | |
Colson(-0.5) tipped his blitz, gets easily blocked down by the RT but this should work because he is blitzing that gap and switching (RPS+1) which should have this dead to rights. Unfortunately Mullings(-0.5) isn't aggressive against the TE so the RB can burrow for the 1st. | ||||||||||||
O45 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Y-Cross | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | RB Swing | Morris | -1 | -1.38 |
Might be a lane forming as Mullings(-0.5) and Sainristil(-0.5) are outflanked. Morris(+3, tackling+1) gives the LT a GERTOFFME and hacks this down from behind to create a TFL himself. Moore(+1) had shot through and was going to stick for no gain or something absent Morris's heroics. | ||||||||||||
O44 | 2nd | 11 | Pistol Strong | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 fld | Run | Dart C | Colson | 5 | 0.06 | |
CSU's version of Power is really a stretch with uncovered guys trying to pull around covered ones which we (incorrectly) call Dart. Upshaw(+1) plants the kickout upfield and CSU center (hat+1) runs into that instead of trying to block anyone. That gives Colson(-1, tackling-1) a clear path for a thunderous TFL, but he doesn't trust it, instead bouncing off an OL. Barrett(+0.5) was blitzing and came off that to converge with Colson and hold it down. Ungh. | ||||||||||||
O49 | 3rd | 6 | Gun Wk H-fly | 4-2-5 | Racecar | 2 off | Pass | 6 | Sack | Sainristil | -2 | -1.40 |
Fun Blitz 1 (RPS+2, PR+1) and Colson/Sainristil don't know which is blitzing on the top while Upshaw drops into coverage and from the leverage here I blame Colson. They figure it out as Sainristil(+1) chips the RB they were both bracketing, then goes in for the kill while Colson stays on the RB so no minuses. They don't show Turner(+1, Cov+2) but the reason there's time for that is Millen is staring down Turner's guy and is finally deterred. By then Harrell is free as the LT is overwhelmed by Moten blitzing that side as well and Smith(+1) blew one side of his double into the other so neither can help. Amoeba FTW! | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 10 min 1st Q. Collar-pulling LB play, Amoeba gets them off the field. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | Pass | 4 | RB Flat | Colson | 2 | -0.35 |
McGregor(+2, PR+1) beats the RT who blatantly hauls him down (refs-1). Millen spooked and quickly dumps to the RB whom Colson(+2, Cov+1, tackling+1) nails immediately. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 2nd | 8 | Gun 5w | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 high | Pass | 4 | Post | R.Moore | -14 | -5.03 |
McGregor(+2, PR+1) around the LT, goes for the strip but misses and gets pushed by. Millen has time because Upshaw(-1) got ejected but is now spooked and doesn't see Moore(+2, Cov+3) hanging out in centerfield and throws it right to him. Moore then runs it to the paint. No points for blocking but Moten and Barrett clear the shingles. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception. 0-0. 9 min 1st Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 4w | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Quick Seam | Barrett | 20 | 1.80 |
Harrell(+1, PR+1) pushed the LT into the pocket, rushing Millen's skinny post to the H. Barrett(push, Cov-1), juuuust gets his fingertips on it, but Stovall reels it in anyway (Hat-1) for a good gain. | ||||||||||||
O45 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Flash Screen | Sainristil | 2 | -0.52 |
Morris(+1) sees the RB heading for the flat and jets out there, cutting him off. That's only a little relevant but heady. Sainristil(+1) also sees it and cuts off the TE. Play stretches to the sideline where Turner(+0.5) shot his WR upfield without leaving any space around him. RPS-1: Minter was blitzing the backside and rolling the FS which meant Michigan was outnumbered to the strongside. | ||||||||||||
O47 | 2nd | 8 | Pistol Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 press | Run | Dart C | Morris | 1 | -1.01 | |
CSU OT tries to kick out Morris(+1) and falls down (Hat+1). The C converts to a kickout but now M is up a guy. RB has to cut back, Colson is there to deter the A gap, and Benny(+1) does a great job to control the G, shed and fire upfield for no gain. Safeties staying high so this was all on the front. | ||||||||||||
O48 | 3rd | 7 | Gun 4w | 4-2-5 | Racecar Split B | 2 bdy | Pass | 4 | Double Screen | Harrell | INC | -1.19 |
CSU throws the flare screen side and Harrell(+2, cov+2) read the play and has a TFL if it's completed. It is not. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-0. 7 min 1st Q. Starting to think CSU isn't very good. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 press | Pass | 5 | Fly | Johnson | INC | -0.70 |
Will Johnson(+2, Cov+2) in and immediately targeted, MSU 2020 style. Perfect ball, WR gets away with a little pushoff but WJ's arms are so long he's able to rake it out as the guy's going down. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 10 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Sack | Colson | 2 | -0.23 |
M drops Upshaw into the slant (RPS+1) and brings Mullings. He's picked up but Smith(+2, PR+2) runs the center 6 yards into the backfield. Looks like a sack but Jenkins(-1, tackling-1) went to the wrong side of the LT and Millen escapes. Not for long as Colson(+1, tackling+1) runs up and sticks after a tiny gain. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 3rd | 8 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Racecar Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Scramble | McGregor | 5 | 0.01 |
The one where McGregor(+1, PR+2, tackling-1) got around CSU's very bad RT then whiffed the sack. Morris(-1) at DT watches instead of containing then gets edged. Sainristil(+1) gets down and pops the QB in the air and OOB to force a punt. Flag for defensive holding gets picked up but we don't get a replay or explanation because the worst announcers in football are busy obsessing over a photograph of the time Jay Norvell's mom got hit on by Muhammad Ali. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 13-0. 14 min 2nd Q. One fly and two almost sacks. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O16 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 fld | Run | Split Zone | Smith | 2 | -0.23 | |
Harrell(+0.5) resists a kick to force it inside. Rooks(-0.5) got locked out by the RG so the C can immediately release on Barrett. Smith(+1, tackling+1) is singled on the LG, stands him up, sheds, and grabs the RB's feet. Moten(+1) flew down past a WR trying to crack him to help. | ||||||||||||
O18 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk 5-1 | 1 bdy | Pass | 3 | Throwaway | D.Moore | INC | -0.37 |
M shows 5 and brings 3. D-Mo(+2, PR+2) comes through the LT with an RB chip, arms the guy away, and is sacking so Millen tosses it hopelessly at the RB. G (Hat+1) was triple-teaming Smith. | ||||||||||||
O18 | 3rd | 8 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Racecar Split | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Sack | Anoma | -8 | 0.18 |
Weird from CSU as both tackles and one of the guards don't move after the snap (uh, Hat+3). Free quarterback is served. Anoma(+2, PR+3) runs through RB like he's not there and thundersacks. Morris(+1) took a chip from the TE then joins. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 13-0. 9 min 2nd Q. Hat Hat Hat Hat Hat. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 off | Run | Counter Trey | Upshaw | -1 | -0.80 | |
Bet the coaches use this in a clinic on how to kill Counter. Upshaw(+1) blasts the puller into the RB's path. Benny(+0.5) holds up to a play-long double. Colson(+0.5) shoots into the gap they're attacking, pops the TE, and discards him. Paige(+1, tackling+1) shoots down to replace the edge and helps tackle. Wall of Wolverines means nowhere to go until Morris arrives from the backside. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 2nd | 11 | Empty Demi RB-Orbit | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Double Screen | Turner | -3 | -0.39 |
Same look as the last screen but hits the other side, where Turner(+2, cov+3) is in man and sitting on this (RPS+2). | ||||||||||||
O21 | 3rd | 14 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Racecar Eagle | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Drag | Moten | 14 | 2.03 |
Moten shows blitz, CSU checks out and Michigan checks to something else automatically. Moten(-2, cov-2) blows the coverage, letting the backside drag route cross him and turn the corner. Mark Jones calls Mazi "Ozzie" Smith(+1, PR+1) just before the wizard teleports into the backfield. WR goes out a yard shy of the sticks but they take pity (refs-1). | ||||||||||||
O35 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk 3-3-5 | 1 off | Pass | 3 | Hook | Mullings | 3 | -0.41 |
M shows one look, Millen calls it out, they switch, then switch again. Bait->Trap. Rush three: Smith(+0.5) puts the C in the backfield enough to make things uncomfortable, and Benny(+1, PR+1) slaps away the bad RT's half-assed hand to get a shot at Millen, who dumps it off to a well-covered slot under Mullings(+1, cov+1, tackling+1) who doesn't give up any more. RPS+2 this was the offense's best possible outcome. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 2nd | 7 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Benny | 12 | 1.81 |
Morris(+1, PR+1) has the RT shoved back into Millen and Mullings(+0.5) quickly shed the RB so this starts feeling sacky. The RT fixes things by grabbing hugging Morris's face (refs-1). At this point Benny(-2) hops inside where Morris has things handled and gives up an escape route that Upshaw(-1) who is spying the QB/RB, cannot run down--in fact a WR can step in front of him. | ||||||||||||
50 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Reverse Screen | Upshaw | 2 | -0.48 |
Tricky: it's a flash screen but the WR then runs a reverse out the other side. Upshaw(+1) stayed home. Turner(+0.5) and Moore(+0.5) were there as well. RPS+1 shouldn't have done this against zone. | ||||||||||||
M48 | 2nd | 8 | Empty Wk Demi RB-Flare | 4-2-5 | Nk 5-1 | 1 fld | Pass | 3 | Sack | Harrell | -11 | -2.72 |
Rolder in for Colson and he goes with the RB as he leaves. M rushes 3, dropping Upshaw into the H-curl Millen wanted (RPS+2). That's all he gets as Graham(+2, PR+2) blasted the C into Millen's personal bubble then tried to claw at the ball over that guy's face. GTFO time. D-Mo(+1) was spinning inside the RT who unnecessarily climbs on his back and D-Mo puts his hands up to force a call. Doesn't matter because Barrett(+2) shot upfield, danced Millen into staying inside then sacked with the help of Moore's heft. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 3rd | 19 | Gun 4w | 4-2-5 | Racecar Eagle A | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Scramble | McGregor | 12 | 0.76 |
McGregor(-2) and Harrell(-1, PR-2) both get the worst kind of pass rush: way upfield and big escape vector. Smith might get there but is held so bad he's running at the QB with his front shoulder turned backwards (refs-2). Colson has to deal with the RB and spills to Paige(-1, tackling-1) who came in too far inside and turned a punt from the 50 into 4th and go for it. | ||||||||||||
M47 | 4th | 7 | Gun 4w | 4-2-5 | Racecar Split | 2 off | Pass | 5 | Sack | Harrell | -6 | -4.11 |
Tempo. Defense had a plan already (RPS+2), dropping Upshaw (playing DT) and bringing both Moten and Sainristil off the edges. Millen has a shot to gun this to an out vs Moore but Upshaw(+1, PR+3) got the bad-day-having RT all crossed up with a stab outside and slap-away. Millen ducks and Harrell only gets his helmet as he goes by but now there's McGregor(+1) who won inside and an unblocked Moten. Drive's done. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 20-0. 1 min 2nd Q. [/Hot take voice] We shoulda saved that! [/voice]. Next drive starts with 11 seconds. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Twins | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Run | Dart TCT | Colson | 1 | -0.92 | |
It's just a run-out-the-half run but they try to loop the front T around Morris(+0.5) who's not having it. Colson(+1) shoots inside the C as he goes by and tackles with help from Harrell(+0.5)'s dogged backside pursuit. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: End of Half. 23-0. Two plays in M's territory all half, both of them sacks. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Flex | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 off | RPO | IZ/Bubble | Jenkins | 3 | -0.30 | |
The RR play. LG is holding Jenkins(+2, refs-1) but he fights through and trips up the RB. Nowhere else to go because Smith(+1) stood up a double. | ||||||||||||
O28 | 2nd | 7 | Gun Wk Flex | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 6 | Out | Moten | 10 | 1.42 |
Blitz is tipped by Sainristil's alignment (RPS-2, cov-2) and they have the quick answer since Moten is playing high. Not minusing him bc he funneled back to help, but if you're going to Ravens this the FS has to slam down on that harder. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 fld | Run | Dart C | Johnson | 2 | -0.52 | |
Minter sends a corner blitz (RPS+1) and Johnson(+2) is able to redirect and trip the RB. Scary for a moment as Harrell(-1) got comboed through on the frontside. Barrett(+0.5) dodged the TE and Sainristil(+0.5) shoved the slot over the pile to clean that up but RB can fall forward. Bonus humor as Colson and Barrett lift the RB and carry him back to the LOS. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Str Flex | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Flash Screen | Sainristil | 2 | -0.70 |
Tempo catches Nk and MLB not set (RPS-1) but Sainristil(+1, cov+1) still beats the TE to get an arm on the WR at the LOS and spin him back inside, where Paige(+2, tackling+1) flew down to end this. | ||||||||||||
O42 | 3rd | 6 | Gun Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Eagle AA | Pass | 5 | Sack | Jenkins | -1 | -0.73 | |
Another Amoeba sack (RPS+1). Morris(Cov+1) drops into the TE slant that's Millen's outlet and then Colson(+1, PR+2) is through the RB and Harrell(+0.5) is around at 8 and Millen needs to escape. Jenkins(+1, tackling+1) closes it down for the sack. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 4th | 7 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Y-Stack | 1 off | Pass | 6.5 | Strip Six | Harrell | -41 | -7.05 |
Lol. CSU wants to go tempo but refs+1 allow M to get set without a change. M shows a weird look with three defenders over the TE, which tips blitz and CSU gets into a six-man protection that picks up everybody but a delayed Colson, who first had to drop underneath a TE outlet. Sainristil(+1, Cov+3) is in the pocket of the H: nope. Moten(+1) has cut off the TE's post: nuh-uh. Next check is the square-in vs Turner(+3) which is covered too. By now it's too late anyways since Harrell(+3, PR+2) has the RT on the ground as Millen's coming off his first read, that guy kicks out his leg for an illegal trip (refs-1) as Millen's on read 2, and then Morris(+1) is in as well. Before Morris can get there, Harrell reaches out his arm while falling down and strips. Turner scoops it, breaks a tackle with helpful harassment provided by Sainristil, and takes it in for six. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 30-0. 12 min 3rd Q. We are done with the serious stuff but sticking around to clip stuff for next year's preview. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2TE | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 bdy | Run | Dart C | McGregor | 10 | 0.84 | |
CSU's running game is not diverse. Mullings(+1) hops past the LT and blows up the puller to set up a free hit for Moore if the edge holds. It doesn't, as McGregor(-1, tackling-1) is sliding instead of stopping, then trips over his feet. Sainristil(-1) is gets locked up with the other TE, who doesn't let go of Sainristil's shoulderpads (refs-1) so Mikey's running backwards dragging this dude as the RB turns the corner, turning a 5-yard gain into a 1st down. | ||||||||||||
O35 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2TE | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 1 press | Run | Inside Zone | McGregor | 6 | 0.40 | |
Yeesh. McGregor(-2) blown out by a TE/T double. Not a -3 because he does keep them occupied so Colson(+1, tackling-1) can loop around and stop it with help from Moore(+0.5) who's down here playing 8 in the box (RPS+1). Colson lost a point of tacklin' for coming too high, allowing the RB to fall forward for 2.5 yards. Announcer bros are talking about lifting. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 2nd | 4 | Pistol Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Run | Dart C | Harrell | -1 | -1.35 | |
Finally see Michigan's "base" which is Jenkins at SDT, Smith NT, Graham at WDT, and Green in the nickel (Johnson is the other CB). Harrell(+1) does a much better job of setting an edge than McG. RT and TE trying a dart around Jenkins(+2) who chucks the TE then goes down at the T's feet, which trips up the C. Three guys for the price of one! Smith(+1) meanwhile has ripped out the LG's soul and feeds it to the RB. Graham(+1) did the same to the RT and arrives with Mazi. We then cut away from Bruce Feldman's #1 freak so RG3 can put himself on a list of combine freaks. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 3rd | 5 | Gun Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Mesh (Sack) | Jenkins | -14 | -0.80 |
M shows a blitz from Moore, CSU spots it and snaps before M can check out. Upshaw is dropping into a zone that takes away the 1st read and Mullings steps in front of the other crosser. At this point both of them leave the high and low crossers wide open but no cov minuses because they're just reacting to the chaos of the backfield. As to that: RG and C stay with Smith(+1, RPS+2) and Jenkins(+2, PR+3, tackling-1) takes advantage by immediately whipping the LG inside so badly that Harrell(+1)'s LT on skates is rubbed off. KJ misses the tackle but that's just more negative YAC as Graham(+1) and Moore have come through their guys for the finishing move. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 30-0. 10 min 3rd Q. Shall we be done? No? Okay sickos to garbage time we go! Backups (including the CSU Ts) are in. RPS is off. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 off | Run | Dart C | Goode | 9 | 1.25 | |
D-Mo(+2) Wormley's the TE and thunks the puller. Unfortunately Rolder(-1) hasn't read this and goes really fast outside while Goode(-2) got shoved a few yards downfield and is locked with his G, which impedes Colson. Kolesar(+1, tackling+1) shoots down to keep it from getting worse, losing a shoe in the process. | ||||||||||||
O34 | 2nd | 1 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Run | Inside Zone | Rolder | 4 | -0.13 | |
Rolder(-0.5) shows blitz and gets stuck at the LOS vs a T, holding up for a second but getting beack back. Goode(-1) is moved out by a double but Colson(+1) picks his way around it and stops this after it gets the 1st. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Drag | Sainristil | 21 | 1.71 |
D-Mo(+1, PR+1) bull rushes the LT into the pocket but nobody else is close so Millen has time to find a shallow cross. Sainristil(-2, cov-2) got sucked back by the deep cross into the LB zones, and M rotated their safeties (RPS-x1) to the boundary so the WR gets to run for 21 yards. | ||||||||||||
M41 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Run | Dart C | Harrell | 5 | 0.09 | |
Benny(+1) got into the LG and bends the pocket back. Harrell(-0.5) is holding up on the edge but lets the LT into Barrett and gets beaten inside when the puller arrives (He's not Hutchabo moment). Barrett(-1) should replace but got stuck on the LT. Also want Green(-1, tackling-1) to hammer down faster when his WR goes after Kolesar; instead he waits high then only gets an arm in to help. | ||||||||||||
M36 | 2nd | 5 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 fld | Run | Inside Zone | Colson | 2 | -0.49 | |
Benny(-1) bent back by a combo that gets to Barrett(-0.5) but Graham(+0.5) stood up his side and Colson(+2, tackling+1) read it perfectly, shot in, and made the stop himself. Hello. | ||||||||||||
M34 | 3rd | 3 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | Run | Split Stretch | Graham | 0 | -1.01 | |
We miss the start of this play because the announcers are obsessing over a guy in a red (Miami-NNTM) t-shirt more than anyone I've ever met in Michigan Stadium. That sucks because I think we missed a great get-off from Anoma(+1), who's four yards in the backfield as the QB gets the ball. It's also a weird play with a TE crossing backside while they PnP the rest. Planned? Mistake? Dunno. Anoma gets a hand to slow up the RB, Graham(+1) has his C in the backfield so the backside T runs into him freeing Graham except the C forgot he had his hand in Graham's sleeve and gets comically yanked down as his RB does. Also Barrett(+1, tackling+1) picked through the traffic and got into the RB's legs. | ||||||||||||
M34 | 4th | 3 | Pistol 2TE Z-Fly | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Play-action | 5 | Sack | Smith | -8 | -4.79 |
Starters back in for this 4th down. Smith(+2, PR+3) goes full grizzly on this poor C, two-gapping him, removing a panicked holding hand to sack himself…okay with some Harrell(+1) running straight upfield through a TE. Graham(+0.5) got through and took a swat at the ball as Millen's going down. Colson(-2, cov-2) let a WR run free behind him so good thing the pass rush worked. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 37-0. 2:33 3rd Q. All backups after this. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 1 fld | Run | Dart C | Goode | 4 | -0.11 | |
Goode(-0.5) stood up and moved back. Barrett(-1, tackling-1) took a good risk to shoot the gap but went in too tentatively and the RB escapes. That's saved by Mullings(+1) shucking a TE kickout, and taking on the puller (passively…he missed a +2 opportunity) but that creates enough of a backup that Goode can cross his guy and tackle as he goes by. | ||||||||||||
O29 | 2nd | 6 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 0 off | Pass | 4 | RB Flat | Mullings | 8 | 1.14 |
Perry in at Nk, CBs are Johnson and German. D-Mo drops, Barrett(+1) times his blitz well and is coming through to sack as Anoma(+1, PR+2) is around the LT at 7 and gets a hand on the QB's shoulderpad. Millen(Hat-1) impressively wiggles away and dumps it to the RB that Mullings(-2, cov-2) wasn't watching. Kolesar(+1) limits the damage by blasting his slot into the RB's path but it's enough to convert. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Run | Inside Zone | Rooks | 6 | 0.40 | |
Anoma(+2) shucked his TE to the ground so this should be dead but Rooks(-2) got doubled and fell down, allowing the LT to capture Barrett and RB to hop into that gap. Goode(+1) let his doubler get to Mullings but then fought across the G's face to limit the damage. | ||||||||||||
O43 | 2nd | 4 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Run | Buck CT | D.Moore | 1 | -0.98 | |
D-Mo(+2) has a world of shit coming his way and Hutches it, standing up the RT in the way of everything. C gets hung up on that, and Barrett(+2, tackling) shot a gap behind a moved-out Goode(-1), thunked the 2nd puller, and made the tackle. | ||||||||||||
O44 | 3rd | 3 | Gun Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Split | 1 bdy | Pass | 4 | Snag | Barrett | 6 | 1.78 |
Both TEs stay to block and they get to run a pass play, finding the snag under a too-slow reaction from Barrett(-1, cov-1). | ||||||||||||
50 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2TE | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Split | 2 off | Run | Dart T | Rolder | 3 | -0.39 | |
Benny(+1) is getting blocked down so he shoves that guy back and has a shot at a +3 if he see the RB coming back to him--doesn't. Guy(+1) has the frontside edge cut off by bending the TE back until he falls on the next guy so this has to cut off the back of the guy Benny's now got one-hopping backwards. There Barrett(-1) got hung up on the backside T but Rolder(+1) took on a 325-pound dude and rocked him on his ass to end it for a minimal gain. | ||||||||||||
M47 | 2nd | 7 | Pistol Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 1 off | Run | Counter Trey | Welschof | 11 | 1.22 | |
Fall rumor was Juice(-3) is still learning Edge and yeah. Instead of plunking the kickout he meekly goes inside him. Barrett tries to fix by popping the TE but he's inside. German(+1, tackling+1) rescues this from a long gain by constricting the gap vs a WR kicking him and then getting the RB down. | ||||||||||||
M36 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 fld | Run | Counter Trey | Anoma | 2 | -0.28 | |
Anoma(+2) does it right, shooting into and both-sides'ing the kickout so that the puller gets stuck on his butt. Rooks(+1) beats his blockdown back and Rolder(+0.5) beats the RT inside to stuff. | ||||||||||||
M34 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 fld | Play-action | 4 | Fly | Johnson | 34 | 3.24 |
Welcome to college kid. M blitzes Q-Jo and drops D-Mo into a short zone. Anoma(+1, PR+1) is coming through and putting his hand over to bother but Johnson(-2,cov-2) has let the WR behind him and is beaten by an excellent throw and catch (yes Alex, he got his foot down). | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 44-7. 9 min 4th Q. CSU gets the ball back with 1:25 left down 51-7 so charting is over. Videos for next year's preview: Micah(+1) sticks through traffic. K.Jones(+1) sticks on the edge. Giudice(+1) in the wild . |
Jim Harbaugh says Michigan's edge pressure is "almost as good or as good" as last year, when the Wolverines had Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.
— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) August 8, 2022
"Much improvement on the inside" of the defensive line, he adds.
Listen, I'm very excited about the effectiveness of the edge panic vaccines but that doesn't mean…
Did Colorado State move the ball at all?
Well they tended to get to midfield then turn it over. Drives that weren't 100% back-benchers:
- 2 plays and an interception.
- 2 three-and-outs
- 2 four-and-outs
- 6-play, 27-yard opening drive.
- 6-play, 20-yard drive with a strip-six on 4th & 7.
- 9-play, 22-yard drive that got to midfield before the dink-megasack-scramble-4th & 7 sack sequence.
- 7-play, 33-yard drive against backups ended on 4th & 3 when Mazi was reinserted and let loose.
More or less what you want to see against a tomato can. There was definitely a vibe, especially as the game went on, that Michigan was content to let the Rams roll on standard downs until they did something annoying like get to midfield, go for it on 4th down, go for it on 3rd down, pass the ball, or dress sorta like Michigan State. Most importantly, no toes were injured in the process.
How many passing plays did CSU have in this game?
Thirty-two.
And on how many of them did Michigan get pressure?
Let's see… I've got 19 pressures, 10 of them at +2 or more. Hence seven sacks.
So 59 percent of passes were interrupted, and a third of them majorly.
Yeah.
That is INSANE! Isn't that insane?
It's pretty high up there. I had a pressure total of +31 on 32 passing plays, for a ratio of 97%. The five best ratios from the Hutchinson era:
- 86% (+24 in 28 plays) at Wisconsin 2021
- 83% (+34 in 41 plays) vs Iowa in the BTC
- 71% (+39 in 55 plays) that time they beat Ohio State 42-27.
- 70% (+21 in 30 plays) at Minnesota 2020
- 68% (+23 in 34 plays) at Nebraska 2021
So Harbaugh was right: We replaced Hutchinson and Ojabo with an army of Hutchinsons and Ojabos. What other explanation is there?
Context. Jay Norvell's team is a redshirt freshman throwing his 3rd through 22nd career passes before more people than he's ever played in front of combined, behind an awful offensive line that's never played together. Someone has to be the worst player Michigan will face all season, and even with Hawai'i and UConn on the docket, that CSU right tackle is a good candidate. His hypothetical UFR score in this game was something like +0.5/-14.5, and that was a significant chunk of the Michigan edges' scores, especially Eyabi Anoma's.
You're throwing out numbers, could you organize them in some way?
Like a chart?
Like a chart.
Like a CHART! (snap data via)
Defensive Line | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | + | - | T | Snaps | Notes |
Michael Morris | 8.5 | 1.5 | +7 | 28 | Do the Wormley thing. |
Jaylen Harrell | 10.5 | 2.5 | +8 | 23 | Pass rush events mostly pushing that RT. Owned edge. |
Taylor Upshaw | 4 | 2 | +2 | 12 | Steady at the Upshaw line. |
Braiden McGregor | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 | Hands are great, lower body strength way behind. |
Derrick Moore | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 | Standing by my podcast take he's the dude by Ohio State. |
Eyabi Anoma | 9 | 0 | +9 | 10 | Blew up the endgame. Caveat: CSU backups < FCS. |
Julius Welschof | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Uff! Leg ihn zurück in den Ofen! |
TJ Guy | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | Just one play but good vibe with this one. |
Mazi Smith | 10.5 | 0 | +10.5 | 22 | Could have done more damage if he wanted. Unblockable. |
Kris Jenkins | 7 | 1 | +6 | 15 | Kept coming through but an edge was there first. |
Mason Graham | 6 | 0 | +6 | 19 | Powerful debut. Got his when the DTs weren't first at the bowl. |
Rayshaun Benny | 4.5 | 3 | +1.5 | 12 | Couple of fixable mistakes. Tracking towards excellent. |
George Rooks | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 9 | Significant drop after the first four. |
Cam Goode | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 5 | Fixes bad plays but beaten back too much. |
TOTAL | 77 | 25 | +52 | 238 | Caveat: CSU could have the worst OL in FBS. |
Linebacker | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Snaps | Notes |
Junior Colson | 9.5 | 4.5 | +5 | 45 | Now runs 75% in the right direction. |
Nikhai Hill-Green | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | DNP |
Michael Barrett | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 27 | Good weapon on blitzes, still not a linebacker. |
Kalel Mullings | 3.5 | 6 | -2.5 | 22 | Early hiccups, settled in for some nice plays. |
Micah Pollard | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | One play, still small, but might have something here. |
TOTAL | 21 | 15 | +6 | 98 | Least opponent-variant; coming out positive is a good sign. |
Secondary | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Snaps | Notes |
DJ Turner | 7 | 1 | +6 | 42 | Avoided after he murdered a screen, still made an impact. |
Mike Sainristil | 6.5 | 3.5 | +3 | 41 | One drag route on him. Not quite Daxhillian but tough to edge. |
Gemon Green | 0 | 1 | -1 | 37 | Untested, unsalted. |
Will Johnson | 4 | 2 | +2 | 22 | Tested twice, beaten once. |
German Green | 1 | 0 | +1 | 10 | One very senior play |
Kody Jones | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | Two gutsy sticks late. I think we're gonna like him. |
Rod Moore | 6 | 0 | +6 | 32 | Pick was a gimme, made his presence felt in run game. |
RJ Moten | 2 | 2 | - | 32 | One drag route on him, otherwise yawn. |
Makari Paige | 3 | 1 | +2 | 31 | Reminded me of a young Jarrod Wilson one time. |
Caden Kolesar | 2 | 0 | +2 | 15 | Kolesared his Glasgows like a Kovacs. |
TOTAL | 32.5 | 10.5 | +22 | 296 | Beat some screens, ran man till they heard sack noises. |
Metrics | |||||
Pressure | 33 | 2 | +31 | - | Couldn't be blocked. |
Coverage | 7 | 13 | -6 | - | CSU hit some out stuff. Few busts covered up by pressure. |
Tackling | 12 | 9 | +3 | - | Millen could have been sacked more, just sayin'. |
RPS | 18 | 4 | +14 | Amoeba stuff covered 1st read, contributed to sack party. |
I admit when it comes to recreating Hutchinson in the aggregate, this is in the ballpark of best-case scenarios. Like, nobody's going to call Mike Morris another Hutchinson, but he is out there making plays like Glen Steele after another Hutchinson:
#90 on the bottom of the formation
I was hoping we'd get maybe one non-Morris edge (NME) showing out. You have all of them except two old guys.
I do, but keep in mi—
No, no more caveats; do you have a favored NME or not?
Like a ranger, and maybe not the one you expect. Both Derrick Moore and Eyabi Anoma had similar scores on as many snaps, but I found Moore's play to be more translatable to tougher competition. The thing about true freshmen is they usually need to hit their final growth spurt with the filled out chest and the man strength. Moore is a year older than most of his class, has been in a college-ish weight program at St. Frances, and is a believable 270 already. When CSU ran Counter Trey at him he broke it.
#8 DE at the bottom
Those are long arms, and one of those long arms is holding the T he planted in the path of this run in place to deter a bounce. For the purposes of this year's defense, a good bull rush is the first thing I want to see, and Moore has the body, athleticism and strength to turn a 3-man rush into a throwaway.
Moore also didn't get out of his lane, seemed competent dropping into coverage a few times, and knew how to convert a spin move that got countered into a holding call. He's not a finished product, but it took Taco Charlton three years to look like that. I might be as wrong as the scout in the Moneyball flashbacks about this sort of thing but this is me watching every D-Mo snap:
Regardless of competition—and that's probably a big part of it—a +8 in 9 snaps in your first college game is something.
And yet Eyabi Anoma was incrementally better in your charting and had the more impressive THUNDERSACK.
Right, so the thing about that play is guy who supposed to be blocking him didn't know the play had started.
Slow it down and it's obvious this is on the center. The RG saw the snap and stood up but nobody else on CSU is out of his stance when the quarterback is already catching the ball.
That center was the right tackle for Nevada last year. The RT for CSU was a 6th year transfer who couldn't cracking the lineup at FIU. Another guy lost his job at Tulsa. For all of these guys we have to keep reminding ourselves it's a bad line. That said, Anoma also crushed a late Counter Trey.
#18 DE at the bottom
He's skinnier than Moore but showed some impressive get-off that we didn't see in last year's FCS playoffs and goes back to that 5-star ability. We didn't get to see an array of pass rush moves but like Moore those arms and quickness translate:
#18 second from the bottom of the formation
I didn't see him pass set.
As for the non-new guys, Jaylen Harrell started, abused the heck out of that right tackle, and looked stronger when holding the edge than he did last year, while remaining a pre-snap Swiss Army Knife, even if his role leans edge as much as Craig Roh's. The strip was more impressive on re-watch, because the RT he put on his ass got away with a trip and Harrell has to do this while swimming off the turf.
There were a couple of instances of Harrell getting pushed aside or pushed down—he doesn't have the new guys' athleticism. But Harrell's a player, and is probably going to hold those other dudes to smaller roles longer than you'd think given their relative upsides.
Braiden McGregor was in before the young guys I'm hype on, and was eventful. To the upside, he was giving that right tackle the business and did his part to indue the interception with a slap move that looks like it will work against anybody:
#17 coming from our left
…and a swim move he had to have learned from Hutchinson:
The legs still look skinny/not quite strong enough to pay off those wins with sacks. Then you remember he's a third year guy who spent 1.5 years rehabbing an exploded knee and it kinda makes sense that his hands are ahead of his feet.
Finally we have the old guys. Welschof moved from DT recently and tried to go back there when he was supposed to be holding the edge.
#96 at the bottom
If the FCS transfer who sat out two years and the true freshman are doing that better than the 5th year guy it's late, though in Juice's case it's not because he's got good excuses and a COVID year. Is that all of them?
Upshaw?
Does his thing. Wasn't lost dropping into coverage. Not getting pass rush on even opportunities as the others is a sign it's not happening here in Year 5. Rule of Upshaw is we don't have to talk about him if the other kids are way ahead of him in points.
I thought Mazi Smith was going to come in higher.
If you extrapolate his limited snaps to a normal game for him it's more like a +21, which is the full Mike Martin. He probably could have done a lot more damage but didn't need to. After the game was in hand he mostly stopped penetrating and took some rotations as the guy hanging back at the line of scrimmage with a double escort. If you can waste two offensive players without expending more effort from your nose tackle than it takes to celebrate, why not do that?
Evidence that they chose to keep the bear on a leash was what happened when they removed it. CSU finally got into scoring range against the third-stringers, and decided to go for it instead of taking a sad field goal. Harbaugh responded with fresh starters.
I assert the reason it felt like Mazi Smith dominated this game was he did something every time he was really trying to, and faded into the background once Michigan realized the tackles were exposed as Michigan sleeper agents. When Mazi went upfield so did whoever was in front of him.
#58 in the middle
Cam Goode…
…was not very good, don't cur, let me tell you about true freshman named Mason Graham.
#55 at nose
Of all the unblockables, Graham stood out in the way that the most beloved DTs in the program's recent history did, which is to say like a guy who thinks a bomb is going to explode and the detonator is hidden in the football.
I kind of forgot to watch Kris Jenkins all game but he turned in some nice plays too.
#94 in a 3-point stance under Mazi
As for Rayshaun Benny, he had some (RS) freshman issues on some more complicated plays, but overall he looks like what was advertised, bending the pocket back, and displaying the length/strength/agility combo that makes life hell on teams that run zone.
#26 second from the top of the line
In a way I find it encouraging that Group of Five transfer Cam Goode looked like a G5 player against other G5 players: like with Upshaw and the edges, a guy who's played a lot of football against non-CSU players gives you a baseline to judge all these guys for whom the only tape is against CSU. I don't think we're going to look this good against average opponents, however. Colorado State makes good look super good, and spikes in competition don't scale evenly.
You're saying everybody is going to do that to Colorado State?
Well, no, because not everyone has Jesse Minter. Sometimes you face a team whose ONE THING they do well happens to coincide with your ONE THING you do poorly and you get the proverbial "bad matchup" (e.g. MSU in 2020). The corollary is a game like Saturday's, where the thing an offense most struggles with is exactly the situation the defense is best at putting them in.
Colorado State is a newly installed Air Raid dink-n-dunk program with a redshirt freshman QB making his first start and a rickety OL. They want easy-to-read, quick underneath passes, and create those by spreading you out to take away your blitz options and give their receivers horizontal space to work in. Grown-up Air Raids know how to read defensive cues and find the open space all over the field, but that takes a quarterback who can find his outlet read. The ONE THING about the "Amoeba" fronts Michigan has adopted from the Baltimore Ravens is they are very good at frustrating even NFL quarterbacks' attempts to find their outlets.
Here's a case example. Michigan's running a Cover Zero (pure man downfield) blitz but dropping Taylor Upshaw, who's lined up as a DT, directly into the slant:
#91 standing up on the bottom hash
Oh I'm sorry freshman, was that your outlet? The other obvious outlet was the RB but Michigan has a guy for him too (actually two guys—one of Colson or Sainristil should have been blitzing).
A major factor in that equation is how long are you leaving your DBs exposed, ie how long until the pass rush arrives. Upshaw was a good choice to drop because he's—I think we can say this now—a bad pass-rusher, and to make this work you need guys who can pay it off. In our next example they dropped Upshaw into the mesh with Colson hanging out at the crossing point. Those guys will come open eventually, but by the time the freshman quarterback figures out the grass left undefended by dropping Upshaw was from Kalel Mullings, Mazi Smith and Braiden McGregor and Kris Jenkins have made a hash out of things.
That was a four-man rush. The Minter games extended to three-man rushes as well:
There was another like this that John Duerr pointed out on Twitter where Michigan kept changing their pre-snap looks before and after Millen pointed out what he thought he saw. This is all part of #Amoebalife: the front keeps changing, and simple rules for quarterbacks like "throw into pressure" don't work because they're always moving someone into the zone the blitzer came from.
This works because they can pass rush; even with three guys coming, someone was single-blocked and was going to shove that block into the QB's lap. It's not made out of Hutchinson and Ojabo whooping their guys (there was some of that too), but once you get an Air Raid quarterback off his platform and looking around for an escape his eyes aren't on the secondary any longer, and then the coverage doesn't even matter.
One more example, and I want you to try your best to ignore the murderous ursine in the middle and watch Junior Colson versus the receiver lined up under the top hash:
#25 on the 28 yard line, middle of the field
All-22 film would be nice but my friend who was at the game confirmed this was the play he saw a WR screamingly wide open down the middle on a 4th down sack. Even if Colson plays this right, it's a linebacker-on-receiver situation and tough to close down. Minter's playing poker and has the cards, but in a more even talent matchup we're going to lose some of those hands.
I take it the secondary had the day off?
Not exactly—I would assert that despite the quiet/negative coverage scoring, they played a major support role in the pounding. In the first Amoeba example in the section Michigan is playing Cover Zero, meaning the defensive backs are all in pure man coverage, with no deep help if the receiver outruns them to green grass. You do that, you're playing with fire, especially if your pre-snap alignment gives it away and the QB gets off a bomb that your DB can't close on.
The strip-six was another Cover Zero. Note all the players hanging out around the box pre-snap despite the spread formation:
This amorphousness (hence "Amoeba") is crucial for the kind of confusion it's supposed to generate. An experienced QB however might notice that Harrell, Barrett, and Moten are all aligned over the TE. More than one guy over a player in the slot is usually a tell that the underneath one is coming.
Here is where we started to see Michigan's DBs show off some. CSU got in the right protection and has a hat for a hat, but Sainristil is on the hip of the slot. Ditto Moten with the TE.
Millen has time for those two reads, they're not good, and by the time he turns to his third read (covered by Turner) somebody is going to be losing a block. In this case it's the RT—who else—to Harrell, who strips.
The 2019 Ravens were built for this, pouring cap space into the secondary and rotating three 1st round CBs. It's been our assertion that Michigan didn't have the horses to play like this last year, since Vincent Gray/Brad Hawkins who were heady but physically limited players, and that a younger, more athletic secondary would change that equation. Well, I charted just two Cover Zero events all last year (both against Washington) and three times against CSU so that's already panning out.
And here it wasn't a "lol Rams" situation; CSU was overmatched up front but their receivers are actually pretty good—they had two established Air Raid starters transfer in from Nevada and held onto two decent starters from CSU last year. Whether they can do this against Rakim Jarrett (Maryland), Jaylen Reed (MSU), or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (27) remains to be seen.
There were a couple of breakdowns on drag routes from guys you would hope were passed that. Here's Sainristil's:
Moten's was similar but after he showed blitz then was backing out. Both I suspect were momentary lapses in focus when they saw Millen about to get sacked yet again—if those two plays didn't account for half of the opponent's passing yards we probably wouldn't remember much about them.
For his part Sainristil was ever-present until late, and absolutely fine, including on a handful of You Tried to Edge Mike Dax Hillristil How Did That Work Out For You? plays that did not work out for you.
The less boring safeties were pretty great. I think I'm close to giving Rod Moore a star. The interception got a perfunctory +2 because he was there and got a nice runback, but it didn't move the needle. This play did:
#19 the high safety on the 35
That is a long way to travel, a lot of traffic to get through, and a lot of mass times acceleration nullified. On the play that looked really dangerous until Mike Morris chopped it down from behind it might not have actually been that dangerous because Moore was going to arrive the next moment.
That's a pretty high RPS score! Just the weird looks?
Also in the Minter bucket was Michigan's preparation for tempo, which has been an issue for them in the past. I specifically recall them trying to run Jordan Whittley across the field one time as MSU was snapping it. CSU went tempo on an early 4th down in Michigan territory, and the defense didn't check the sideline, didn't look at each other and wave about, and ran the opposite of a vanilla play.
This wasn't even the only time they did this on a 4th and 7. I think this is one benefit of Minter versus Macdonald, who was an analyst with Georgia but mostly an NFL guy. Minter was a D-I coordinator at a young age and took Georgia State through its FBS transition in the up-tempo Sun Belt. The one time Michigan did look a little disorganized against tempo Sainristil and Paige still got out there.
Meanwhile Makari Paige's glide down to stop the gotchya with tempo play gets more impressive on progressive rewatches. There was one bad angle on the long scramble that I charged against him, and other guys managed to make plays before he could be charted in his time late, but Paige left nobody open and looked quick and confident in much the way that a true freshman in Game 1 of Year Covid would not.
So many guys.
Right. We should do linebackers too, since, you know, that's kind of the least opponent-dependent of positions
Linebackers, right! Junior Colson…a dude?
As hoped, the true freshman to true sophomore leap for a linebacker seems to have improved Colson's right/wrong direction ratio from 50/50 to 80/20. When he goes in that direction he still goes very fast. He was NEVER this decisive last year.
#25 MLB in the middle
And it wasn't a one-off.
#25 in the middle
Colson had one 2021 Tentative play early in the game when CSU ran a dart for the first time—that's not a play you see teams run very often—the last time I have it in our charting is Notre Dame 2019—and Colson did his part to shut it down the rest of the day. He had one coverage bust that we already discussed and wasn't punished.
At WLB, though Mullings started, most of the time was used by Michael Barrett. When your DL is whipping up on the other team that is a very good thing, because Barrett is quietly one of the best on the team at slaloming through space:
#23 the LB on the top
#23 the LB on the top hash
That agility in space is why Don Brown had him at Viper, and it remains very useful even if the problem Viper solved (the run-first QB) is dying out. Barrett is small and still gets stuck on offensive linemen if they are able to release to him.
As for Mullings, it went better than expected because I'm a miserable pessimist when it comes to linebacking. On the play where Michigan baited all the looks the payoff was collected by Mullings versus CSU's most legit scamp:
There might be 2 people that were excited about this play. And it's not the result, but rather the disguising of the coverage.
— Due# (@JDue51) September 4, 2022
Michigan lines up in a certain look, lets the QB & line make their calls, then gives a late shift. And then a later shift lol
Me likey. pic.twitter.com/4BDNfrvoCm
Mullings was decisive and put himself in the right spot usually. I didn't clip it because [SO MANY CLIPS ALREADY] but I got a vibe from him on a couple of plays where he got in the right spot and collected his tackle but I'm used to Nikhai Hill-Green using those opportunities to throw his body at a guy to prevent a yard or half. It's odd for the guy we think would be a power back if Michigan had the luxury to shy away from contact, but that could just be some uncertainty lingering through his second extended playing time ever.
The next linebacker after Mullings was true freshman Jimmy Rolder. He looks so skinny that PFF rated him as a safety, but still had enough strength to rock a lineman out of his way from a standing position:
#30 LB on the top hash
…and managed to skip that mistake every true freshman LB makes in his first start when a lineman from the other side than his key is coming in for a crack.
#30 top LB
Anything else we need to cover?
Offense and Special Teams!
Uh, this is defense.
And yet there was good blocking.
Pictured: Not Mike Sainristil in Not 2019. [Bryan Fuller]
Right so an extremely ancillary benefit of moving Mike Sainristil to defense is Michigan has another experienced blocker
This is feelingsball but DJ Turner seems to have that Jourdan Lewis *IT* factor. There wasn't much to go on—CSU's dinky Air Raid only went deep twice, both on Johnson, but the casually locked-in way Turner scoops the fumble then breaks a tackle made me consider how awesome he'd be as a returner before safety brain could quickly un-think it. It's too little too late for the old staff but Don Brown and Mike Zordich are owed a credit for finding this caliber of athlete in the bin of Georgia's castaways. I was going to wait until after Maryland to consider issuing Turner a shield (All-American/1st rounder) on the FFFF chart but am officially out of reasons not to.
Mr. Worldwide?
I beat Brian to post my UFR this week so he has to do it.
Heroes?
The CSU right tackle. Okay okay, Jesse Minter, Mazi Smith, Mike Morris, Jaylen Harrell, Derrick Moore, Eyabi Anoma, Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, Junior Colson, DJ Turner, Rod Moore, and the CSU left tackle too.
Maybe not so heroic?
Nobody so I'm going to use this opportunity to complain that ESPN sent Mark Jones and RG3, who were cringe, to cover the first-ever major college football game with a woman coaching on the sideline, which also turned out to be the day when the arguably greatest female athlete in history retired. Meanwhile Beth Mowins was in Corvallis, Oregon, to cover Oregon State vs Boise State. This isn't a "fire everybody!" thing, but a pretty big missed opportunity, IMO.
What does it mean for Hawai'i UConn Maryland and Beyond?
Michigan isn't going to lose a nonconference game. Tune up opponent got tooned.
NME top seeds are Moore, Anoma, McGregor, and Harrell. Very little room between how this went and the best it possibly could go for the present and future. Upshaw is going to continue to have a role, Harrell is a solid starter, McGregor showed some very translatable qualities, and Moore/Anoma were the best that could be hoped for. All of them have to prove it against someone who's not a CSU tackle.
Maybe they can do it with tackles too. Saw what we needed from Smith, Jenkins, and Benny, and Graham paid off the hype. Only disappointment was Cam Goode, which if anyone's going to be that best that it's the 3rd string grad transfer.
Junior Colson made the leap? One mistake that could have gone on last year's film wasn't punished, and might have only happened because a sack was already in progress. Score one for the "freshmen LBs don't play because LB is so hard" heuristic.
Barrett > Mullings but it's not a huge gap. This might have been opponent-variant, as the CSU OL were not climbing to the second level unless tossed there. Mullings looked efficient but far from someone who can be more than a guy. Barrett's blitzing needs to be part of the passing down strategy.
Sainristil: Not a problem. Looked like a veteran, didn't get edged except the one late-game lapse, score was in range of Dax Hill, and got the first sack of the year, just like [warning: everyone's already made this joke] we all predicted.
Turnover-collectin' DBs got the good vibes. Nice to see some easy, obvious plays to highlight Turner and Moore, who did things on the edges of the screen that deserve the kinds of accolades nice, easy turnover returns generate.
Going to more Ravens stuff to recreate Hutchjabo in the aggregate wasn't just talk. They ran Cover Zero, rushed three, rushed seven, changed pre-snap looks multiple times before snaps.
CAVEAT RAMUS. It may be that none of this means everything.
This guy was about to end up in Hank Hill's trunk.
There it is, your Moment of Zen.
September 8th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Seth is spot on. Not just trying to agree with Seth but Beth is better than Jones. That is a low bar but she would have been better.
September 7th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
The author seems to be 'bias' shall we say!
September 7th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
She's actually a very competent announcer and actually knows what is happening and who's playing
Her voice is a bit annoying but I'll take that over dumbass guys that butcher player names or go off on rambling anecdotes instead of talking about the plays in front of them
September 7th, 2022 at 8:54 PM ^
Nothing is more regionally or culturally appropriate than listening to Beth Mowins call a Northwestern game against another B10 west opponent hungover as shit in the early slot on a crisp October Saturday.
September 8th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Nothing says 11 am 4-4 Indiana at 3-5 Illinois like Beth Mowins voice does
September 7th, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
Seth, during the drive that turned over on downs on the 47 when the score was 20-0 in two of the last three plays you get Harrel and Upshaw confused when saying that Upshaw was dropping into coverage. It may have affected the scoring for those guys too.
September 7th, 2022 at 6:19 PM ^
I was impressed when M thought CSU was punting only to yank the punt return off and run the D out to stop a 4th down. No hiccups and all aligned before the snap.
September 7th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
Nice work Seth!!
And thanks for pointing out the more opponent-invariant stuff. Sure, our DL did great, but CSU's OL was pretty turnstile-y. Nice to see that we did many great things that should hold up against better opponents!
September 7th, 2022 at 6:55 PM ^
Yay! Very marginally vindicated on my, "Why isn't Mike Morris getting more love?" take in the comments of Brian's write-up on this game! Yay!
September 7th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
"Rakim Jarrett (Maryland), Jaylen Reed (MSU), or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (27)"
Was a highlight for me
September 7th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
beautiful subtle shade for our dear friend JSN
September 7th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
Excellent UFR Seth. Agree with Rod Moore of star worthy.
September 7th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Great write up, learned a lot about this defense even though the opponent was...not good. But agree with other posters on that RG3/Morris take being terrible. A made up parallel but I would feel belittled if, for example, they forced an "all-asian" commentator crew to cover the first asian head coach and made it a spectacle. You can acknowledge minority/underdog stories without having it be a clown show
September 7th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
Have to disagree with the RG3 take. I normally like listening to Mark Jones, but agree this wasn't one of his better performances messing up some of the names and action on the field. I do think it can be pretty difficult to stay on your game when the score is so lopsided and its obvious the two teams are not on the same level. On the other hand, I thought RG3 brought a lot of energy, he obviously knows the game and had some unique insight into people and aspects of the Michigan program because of his Ravens ties. He seemed well prepared to me and was very engaging, despite the lopsided score. I wonder if sometimes we judge announcers' knowledge about the team against our own, which probably isn't fair. I would be happy to see RG3 on the call for future games.
As for coverage of the new female GA, I'm not sure what the complaint is? Seemed covered in a fair and complimentary way to me, I missed the misogynistic part? As for Mowins, I think you'd have a hard time finding many that would prefer her, and to have her on the coverage simply because its the first game with a female GA seems patronizing to me. And I'm totally fine with male or female sports announcers as long as they're good, but Mowins is not on the same level as a Doris Burke.
September 7th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
And why the heck is it relevant that it happened to be the day after Serena Williams played her last match (a fact that wasn't even known at the time announcing crews got assigned?). Seems like a pretty forced (and honestly kind of patronizing) parallel to draw.
September 8th, 2022 at 1:38 AM ^
Exactly correct.
September 7th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^
Some commentators are better suited for blowout games. I'm a big fan of drawing Uncle Brando for this type of matchup. I already know all the Michigan depth players and don't crave detailed insight to why Michigan is pasting a tier football team. I want Uncle Brando getting way out in the weeds and getting real weird with it for maximum entertainment.
September 8th, 2022 at 1:37 AM ^
Mowins >>> Brando. I mowins is turrible (Barkley style). Wait, that’s gold, rg3 and Barkley in the booth for Hawaii.
September 7th, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^
Fabulous write-up Seth. But I’m confused about the meaning of Cover zero. If I have 4 friends over to watch the game and there are 22 beers in the garage fridge but the game tv is in the basement, are we effectively playing Cover zero on the beers because we’re leaving the fridge unguarded out in the garage? Thanks as always for your able guidance.
September 7th, 2022 at 10:49 PM ^
This is an excellent analogy, and also correct as far as I know. By playing cover zero on the beers in the garage fridge, people in the basement have to be ready to go outside and "cover" any neighbors attempting to reach the fridge to steal a bit of the nectar of life. And they have to be quick about it.
If the owner of the garage fridge stations one or two visitors out in the driveway, preventing unauthorized beer theft becomes easier.
September 7th, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^
Anoma jumped out on film to me. He's better than we realize.
Graham looked like Ryan Glasgow. This was the the gift from God's comment, not Grant. Graham is a future All-American.
Benny jumped out to me, too.
September 8th, 2022 at 8:19 AM ^
I began this thought with two but am increasing it to three: I believe my three most pleasing surprises were Paige, McGregor and Mason Graham. The depth of talent on this defense is stunning. I had high expectations going in but this show went way past my best visions. Coming in, I feared that Makari was a full-blown bust...what a joy to see that young man not simply having a clue but flying around out there making plays. I thought McGregor was who he was yesterday but was not very sure-he's a player. And Mason Graham-just OMG!!!
The defense is 25 deep.
September 7th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
RG3 was great!!.. who is this clown/author!?!?
September 8th, 2022 at 1:34 AM ^
Exactly correct. There was a first time POC woman grad assistant so there needs to be a woman in the booth nonsense is the exact opposite of what should be happening. Earn it on the field (QBs), earn it in the booth (announcers).
September 8th, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
Jesus fuck dude why are you so passionate about this. Let it go. To say Seth's earned his opinion on the blog would be stupid to even have to say but here we are. Your opinion on the matter 7 times is sensational.
September 7th, 2022 at 9:10 PM ^
Honestly this is the sort of game where Michigan has historically "gotten got" by College Crappe of one form or another, so just seeing a really well called game plan and organized and disciplined play by the team in Week 1 (and Week 1 of a new coordinator) was very encouraging.
Yes, we out-athlete them at almost every position, but that's not the only reason they got crushed.
September 7th, 2022 at 9:48 PM ^
RGIII was up and down a bit for me. I liked his energy and occasionally he was charming and funny. Unfortunately he also had a few cringe moments where I thought he was pretty unprofessional.
Jones, however... he gets no love from me. Getting players' names wrong, mistakes calling the action, mistaking a bunch of $5 words for million dollar commentary... Yeah. Not my favorite announcer at all.
September 8th, 2022 at 1:31 AM ^
ORGI IN THE END ZONE!
He was having fun. It’s a game. It’s supposed to be fun. He’s the color guy and he was a rainbow unicorn on air!
September 8th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
RGIII is the same age as me, 32 years old. It's nice seeing/hearing my age group represented in the booth. Hopefully Devin Gardner gets a shot for FOX soon. The people on twitter sure loved the Orgi call. The only black spot for me was the comment on the girls in the front row after the Engineering Tunnel Kiss segment. Just don't comment on the girls in the stands - no need for that.
September 8th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
Mostly agree. Good to get some younger voices... CFB is a young mans game. I think RGIII was mostly fine, but also not special. I mostly hate all announcers though, so I'm biased here. Would much rather just hear the sounds of the game and have a guy tell me who made the tackle or carried the ball etc. (in other words, just the facts ma'am).
From my view commentators are a hold over from the radio days that mostly get in the way of my enjoyment of the game and atmosphere.
September 7th, 2022 at 10:56 PM ^
Very little to take against this team or next week or the week after. These are seniors are varsity playing freshmen in HS basically. Check back in a month for any reality.
September 8th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
There is validity to this perspective-but I believe it to be rather weak and uninformed. It is one thing to be bigger, faster and stronger but it is an entirely different matter to put it into motion as it was employed on Saturday. Using these "warm-up" games to get ramped up to "reality" holds significant value. This is not wasted, throw-away time as many are projecting it to be. This is a new year with a new unit that needs to bring a whole new set of moving parts together. I am pleased that this staff is taking the opportunity the schedule affords in a such a serious manner. I don't expect to see a "25" man defensive rotation against Maryland but it will be a very good thing to have all these players receiving so much on-field time before the more stout challenges arrive.
September 7th, 2022 at 11:32 PM ^
Curious about something - I've heard several times on the mgopodcast that Barrett doesn't have the size to function as a true LB, and here again in this piece, it's stated that he's too small, can't get off blocks, etc.
But then I also just read the Hawaii Offense FFFF and the chart shows Colston and Barrett next to each other. Colston is 6'2", 235 lbs. Barrett is 6'0", 233 lbs.
I wouldn't expect (but I could be wrong) that the 2 inches is the problem - we've had other short LB's who were excellent (Devin Bush at the top of that list). And 2 lbs seems like it's within the margin of error basically - player weight probably fluctuates by more than that over the course of a season.
So what's really being said here? Is "size" being referenced as a corollary for functional or displayed strength on the field? What in particular about Barrett prevents him from being a true LB at 6'0", 233 lbs but doesn't impede Colston at 6'2", 235 lbs?
September 8th, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^
This is a time and place to draw your own conclusions. Watch the players play and decide for yourself-can the young man make the plays???...the empirical evidence will answer all the questions that need to be asked. In the modern college football era speed is the highest priority.
September 8th, 2022 at 1:08 AM ^
Nice -- except RGIII was great. :)
September 8th, 2022 at 1:18 AM ^
C’mon man, the only thing “cringy” is the “Meanwhile Beth Mowins was in Corvallis, Oregon, to cover Oregon State vs Boise State.” nonsense. That’s exactly where she should have been (unless you’re a Oregon State or Boise State fan). She’s turible (in Charles Barkley parlance). RG3 was gold. ORGI IN THE END ZONE!
September 8th, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
I noticed Colson didn't seem to give up an inch after contact on any of his tackles, even when the RB had momentum and he was moving horizontally.
Seems like a guy who had a lot of practice against Haskins and is now facing... not Haskins.
September 8th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Derrick Moore and Mason Graham putting performances like that as game 1 true freshmen (even considering the opponent) calls for great things ahead for the both of them. Usually you can see the promise in future stars right away. Even if they aren't great, there are flashes of brilliance that says great things are ahead. Those two are going to be the anchors of a great Michigan DL in a few years
September 8th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Rolder wasn't included on the Chart, but from what I could calculate he was +1.5/-1.5 = 0
September 8th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
Eyabi Anoma 9 0 +9 10
SEXY BITS!
In person he looked like he was shot out of a cannon.
The force is strong with this one.
September 8th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
I saw this one live and was astounded it didn't draw a flag. If it's egregious enough for me to notice, how do you miss it? He gets around the corner and is suddenly turned with his back to the QB. Am I to believe there's a QB forcefield that repelled McGregor?
September 8th, 2022 at 10:16 PM ^
I thought I ref-2'd that. Maybe I forgot to include it when writing it up. Ah well, I don't total the refs and this was mostly a good game from them.
September 8th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
Our safeties are collectively as good as we have had. They can run, cover, and tackle.
Moore is going to be exceptional. The game is slowing down for Paige which is great to see.
September 8th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
Great job per usual. I loved the play JDue51 highlighted where we shifted twice after the CSU OLine call. We are going to give QBs fits!!!
September 8th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
"Rakim Jarrett (Maryland), Jaylen Reed (MSU), or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (27)"
I see you. Well done sir.
September 8th, 2022 at 3:39 PM ^
Seth - Props to you for the sheer range of references you drop into these articles. I'm sure I miss plenty of them, but I caught today's Heroes V reference. Thanks for the laugh!
September 8th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^
It was actually DnD lol.
September 8th, 2022 at 11:35 PM ^
Ha - that makes more sense. HOMM V must have stolen it from DnD.
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