Formation Notes: Not a lot of interesting stuff, especially since NIU ran the same Ravens-ified offense we do and Michigan’s defense didn’t really need to do anything non-base to stop them. But we had an interesting response to QB sneaks that lined up two DL shielding the shoulders of a middle one, a tactic that was popular until the Single-Wing made it obsolete. I used the Yost term “Pocket.”

NIU was a Michiganly mix of Pistol and Gun, saving the under center stuff for goal line or an attempt to edge Dax Hill. They also brought a lot of material across the formations.

For their part, Michigan kept the concepts simple but did a lot with alignments. I started to draw them up and inspiration (read: the neurodiverse brain on sleep deprivation) turned it into this:

So I noted the pack and then the alignment.

Substitution Notes: Jenkins started and rotated fairly evenly with Jeter—Hinton and Smith are the top DTs, and Jeter or Jenkins comes in when Smith has to play nose. Since this was often, Whittley got more run than before. Morris was still playing both edge and DT, and Welschof got a bit of live run in the 1st half. OLB after Hutch seemed to be Harrell and Upshaw as the 1A/1B guys with Ojabo the pass rush specialist and McGregor rotating in, and Morris getting spot duty there. LB was Ross and Hill-Green with some Colson until backup hour, when Mullings (MLB) came in with Barrett (WLB). Secondary was similar: Green and Gray were the starters, Turner rotated in, and backup hour added George Johnson. Caden Kolesar and Makari Paige came in for Hill and Hawkins.

[After THE JUMP: There were just 38 plays so we’re going to have to reuse a lot of clips.]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Ace	4-2-5	3-4 Odd	2	Run		Split Zone FZ	Ross	1	-0.59
Jenkins(+1) absorbs a dbl, Harrell(+1) forces a give then closes down the gap and pops the kicker. Noticeable difference between M and NIU on a kick. Tiny gap and Ross(+1) is there to stick for no gain.
O26	2nd	9	Gun 12 4w	4-2-5	425 Under	1	Pass	4	Curls	Gray	2	-0.27
Everyone singled, everyone covered despite loads of time (PR-2) so he throws at Ritchie covered by Gray(+1, cov+3) for a tiny gain.
O28	3rd	7	Gun 4w	4-2-5	425 Over	1	Pass	4	Slant	Hill	Inc	-0.07
Quick slant that Hill(+2, cov+2) is all over. PR n/a
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Wk Stack	5-2-4	3-4 Odd	1	Play-Action	6	Bootleg	Hutchinson	15	1.32
RPS-2 as M is caught in a blitz and are sucked in deeply by the PA. Ross(-2, cov-3) goes with the RB though NHG, who's blitzing, is tracking him. Hill(-2) let the Y cross him [Upon further further review this was meant to be Green(-2)] and that's more dangerous since that guy's in the seam alone, but Lombardi's first read is the F and wide open. Gray(+1, tackling+1) made it down to hold this to a small chunk. Hope I'm reading this right--there's no edge so I don't think Hutch is supposed to peel?
O40	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Under	1	Run		Inside Zone	Ross	4	-0.17
Jenkins(+1) pushes the RT back, Smith(+1) ripped playside of the C on time but Ross(-1) was on the wrong side of the G, dives through him and makes the tackle but turns a loss into a gain.
O44	2nd	6	Offset Str	5-1-5	5-1-5 Odd	2	Run		Inside Zone	Smith	10	1.38
Smith(-2) moved out by a double and comboed out of his gap. Hinton(+1) had his T controlled and fights back to limit the gain.
M46	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Over	2	Run		Split Zone F	Green	7	0.53
Jenkins(-1) blown out by a play-long double—hold up just a bit and Hutch(+1) arrives after edging the T. Whittley(-0.5) gets comboed and Ross(-0.5) decides to use himself up. Crosser was a WR so Green(-1) is the extra defender but doesn't activate until late.
M39	2nd	3	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Odd	2	Run		Power Lead	Jenkins	12	0.27
Run power at Jenkins(+1) who fought through the double. Whittley(+1) held up to his too, allowing NHG(+1) to slam into the RT and shove him back into the line whence he came. It's going nowhere until Ross(-2) loses track of the ball and Harrell(-1) falls asleep on the edge. Gray(-1, tackling-1) replaced Ross but reacted late, which adds another 8 yards.
M27	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	5-1-5	614 Over	1	Run		Counter Trey&Z Read	Harrell	16	0.22
Counter Trey plus a Z crosser that's right out of M's playbook except it's a What if the QB Keep was Live counterfactual, M is in man so everyone's pulled frontside(RPS+1). Harrell(-2) is crashing like he's never heard of a QB keeper (...)
M11	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	4	Fade	Hill	Inc	-0.29
Hill(-1, cov-1) is inside and not in phase, there's room to complete this outside but Lombardi put it a little too far and the WR can't one-hand it. Not -2 because Dax is playing the WR who looks in, might have a play on something more accurate. RPS-1 slot fade vs a rolled up S even if it's Dax.
M11	2nd	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	425 Under	2	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Colson	2	-0.15
Upshaw(+1) 2-gaps a flex TE to close down space that Ross(-0.5) isn't attacking hard until late...setting a trap perhaps? Smith(+1) planted the G in the backfield, Colson(+1) shot past the C to stick with help from Hinton(+0.5) who delayed the C's release with a double he lost then won back.
M9	3rd	8	Offset Str Flex	4-2-5	5-1-5 Split	2	Pass	4	FB Flat	Moten	6	-4.03
Hutch(+1, PR+1) around a RT at 7yds from a wide-9, dumpoff to the FB who's corralled after breaking a Moten(-1, tackling-1) attempt. Cov+1 to set up a makeable 4th and short that NIU decides not to attempt(!!!!)
Drive Notes: FG(21). 7-3. 6 min 1st Q. For the record, the EPA value of the field goal was -1.13 points so even if they weren't huge underdogs this was conservative. However Mathlete reports their OWDGSOV (odds we don't get shut out value) increased by 72%. #squadgoals
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Ace Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Over	1	Run		End Around	Hill	0	-0.70
Hill(+1) rolled up like a 6th DE so they try him on the edge. It goes how it goes as he two-gaps the TE all the way to Gray(+1) who makes the tackle. Harrell(+1) was doing the same with his TE so there was no backside.
O25	2nd	10	Pistol Ace Twins	4-2-5	4-2-5 Under	2	PEN		False Start	NA	-5	-0.36
Oops
O20	2nd	15	Gun 12 5w	4-2-5	4-2-5 Over	2	Pass	4	Smoke Screen	Moten	2	-0.10
Gray(+1) almost makes this himself while getting blocked with the ball in the air (legal behind the LoS). Moten(+2) came down and ended it. I like him.
O22	3rd	13	Gun 5w	4-2-5	5-1-5 Over	2	Pass	4	Hitch	Turner	Inc	0.24
They throw under soft coverage and 6 yards short of the sticks. Turner(+1, cov+1) was driving on this if accurate, it isn't.'
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-3. 14 sec 1st Q. Not going to get a high volume of coverage grades from Lombardi today.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol 12 Flex Str	4-2-5	4-2-5 Over	2	Run		Counter Trey	NHG	6(Pen-15)	0.33
Michigan's adjustment (RPS+1) has Ojabo(-1) pinch and shoulder the kickout, though he's not supposed to get turned out--he is getting bear-hugged and puts his arm up to get the ref's attention instead of fighting back (refs-1 don' cur). NHG(+2) scoots past the releasing T and blasts the the lead and almost tackles, forcing the RB backwards. Smith(+1) cut off pursuit by dominating his blockdown so this is a TFL as soon as the free hitter arr...dammit Turner(-2) didn't even think about replacing when the the WR went to crack Hawkins so this escapes for a solid gain. NIU picks up a stupid personal foul after the whistle.
O16	2nd	19	Pistol Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run		Stretch	Ross	7	0.07
Odd fronts are tough to run this against (RPS+1). McGregor(-1) got one-armed by a TE and there's a cutback lane that's not taken because Smith(-1) got a bit too aggressive and gets washed but Hinton(+1) has occupied a double so Ross(-2, tackling-1) can shoot a free gap but he overpursued and Waylee makes him miss. Turner(-1) irresponsibly tried to go under the T instead of holding the edge so this is about to break big, but NHG(+2, tackling+2) fought through trash to end it. I really like him.
O23	3rd	12	Pistol Str	4-2-5	Okie	2	Run		Stretch	Morris	3	0.21
GUAP but they still lose yards because Morris(+2, tackling+1) threw the RT in the backfield and two-gapped him to end this on his own. NHG(+1) beat his G inside. Think they’re supposed to call clipping for this against Upshaw?
Drive Notes: Punt. 21-3. 11 min 2nd Q. Hill-Green caused this entire three-and-out.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Heavy	5-2-4	5-3 Odd	1	Play-Action	4.5	Bootleg	Harrell	6	0.33
This time Harrell(+1, cov+2) peels so maybe I was wrong about the first one or maybe this is the adjustment? Still RPS-1 since there's no contain for Lombardi now. Jenkins(-0.5) in tough in pursuit and can't get there. NHG(+1, tackling-1) discarded a TE and hits, gets spun off, Ross(+0.5) is there to finish.
O31	2nd	4	Pistol Unbalanced	4-2-5	425 Over	2	Run		Split Zone Z	Hinton	3	-0.36
Hutch(+1) blows out the WR cracking so this has to cut frontside. However Hinton(-2) got blown out by a double and Smith(-1) did too. Ojabo(+2) fought back to grab the RB and stop his momentum so M can rally and bring up 3rd and short.
O34	3rd	1	Sneak	4-2-5	Pocket	NA	Run		QB Sneak	Hutchinson	0	-0.70
Hutch(+1) and Smith(+1) use a pre-Yost era tactic that Yost called "Pocket" and it works (RPS+2). Hutch is sideways and atop Smith and rolls into the line while shielding Smith so he can burrow under. This dents the middle and the QB is swallowed for a TFL. Lombardi actually fumbles it.
O34	4th	1	Goal Line	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run		Dive	Hutchinson	3	1.75
Late change that Harbaugh thinks is illegally after the fact, has his punt team out there and has to call TO. Then NIU does this whole rigmarole and takes a TO. Then they come back and run a dive that doubles Hutch(-1) and gets it.
O37	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run		Inside Zone	Ross	1	-0.87
Hinton(-1) blown back by a double, Hutch unblocked (expected to check bootleg?) but Smith(+1) shoved his C into the backfield and Jenkins(+1) beat his T. Ross(+2) blasts the G then sticks the RB for a loss.
O38	2nd	9	Pistol Str	4-2-5	425 Over	2	PEN		Offsides	Ojabo	5	1.27
Ojabo(-1) but no player actually reacted and he got back so refs-1.
O43	2nd	4	Pistol Str	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	4	Delayed Slant	Hawkins	Inc	-1.20
RPS+3 this is a fake bubble to a slant and M has Hawkins(+1, cov+3) sitting on a slant. TV view it looked like it was on his hands but it was actually outside of his body. One of these days Brad.
O43	3rd	4	Gun Trips Unbal	4-2-5	5-1-5 Under	1	RPO	5	Bubble/QB Power GF	Gray	-7	-1.15
Think NIU tips the run part by having the G set back and M (RPS+3) is all over it. Lombardi double pumps then throws the bubble bc M ignores covered TE and overwhelms this side. Pump gives Gray(+1, tackling-1) time to grab the receiver deep in the backfield. He doesn't get him down but now everyone's arrived.
Drive Notes: Punt. 28-3. 3 min 2nd Q. Still no shots downfield by Lombardi. Weird. Michigan takes a downfield shot and it's an 87-yard TD right after this so it's not that hard. Also NIU has the ball back right away with 1:53 remaining. Also M is up more points than there are minutes remaining so we're officially into garbage time now.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Twins	5-2-4	5-3 Over	2	Run		Split Zone Z Duo	Jeter	3	-0.30
Jeter(-0.5) and Whittley(-2) both set late and are moved by doubles. It looks dangerous since Hawkins(-1) is the 3rd LB and not shooting the gap. Finally one of Jeter's blockers comes off to deal with Brad and Jeter wins back a half point vs the C and making the tackle. NIU in no hurry on this 2MD.
O28	2nd	7	Pistol Ace	5-2-4	5-2 Over	2	Run		Counter Trey&Z Read	Welschof	1	-0.47
Upshaw(-1) forms up when he has Gray outside him (RPS+1 wasted). Harrell(+2) is the kick man on the frontside, sets up wide to entice a kick then jumps inside. Glad nobody does this to Michigan much. That squeezes room made by blowing out Welschof(-1). Ross(+1) stands up the lead blocker at the PoA and Colson(+1) dodged a LT who can only reach out and grab his waist, and Hill(+1) shot past the Z to combine with the other two for a TFL. NIU lets the clock run (M has one TO).
O29	3rd	6	Pistol Ace Twins	4-2-5	425 Wide	1	Run		Counter CF	Ross	2	-0.16
Hutch(+2) blows out the C's kick attempt. Morris(+0.5) only budges a little on the double, Ross(+1) shoots the gap to pop the lead blocker and Hutch gets the RB's feet.
Drive Notes: Punt. 35-3. 20 secs 2nd Q. M tries to block and Sainristil can't stop his slide until he hits the P's plant foot. Roughing or running into it's still a 1st down.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O46	1st	10	Pistol Twins	3-2-6	Prevent	4	Pass	5	Hail Mary	Ojabo	3	-2.82
PR-1 can't get through because there are only 2 WRs in the pattern. Lombardi takes off and Ojabo(+1) gets him down.
Drive Notes: End of Half. 35-3.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Heavy	5-2-4	5-3 Odd	2	Run		Lead Inside Zone	Ross	4	-0.11
RPS-1 as Michigan is stacking defenders on the edge to deter the split game and NIU runs away from it. Smith(-1) bumped and single-blocked. Hinton(+1) two-gaps a G he put in the backfield, Ross(+1) gambles on a weave to one side of the C to blow up the lead blocker, RB has to cut back to that because NHG(+1) fired into the RT quickly.
O29	2nd	6	Pistol Heavy	4-2-5	5-3 Under	2	Run		Lead Zone Trap	NHG	-4	-0.94
RPS+1 I think this was supposed to be a trap zone but Smith(+1) blasts the C back and M is slanting to the frontside of it. Hutch(+1) redirects to set a hard edge and NHG(+3, tackling+1) times his attack perfectly to fly by the C trying to block him and behind the FB to end it in the backfield. Monster play.
O25	3rd	10	Pistol Heavy	4-2-5	4-3 Over	2	Sack	4	Max Pro	Hutchinson	-1	0.13
Lol. Hutch(+3, PR+2, tackling+1) sacks vs an 8-man pass protection. Official scorer calls this a 0-yard run when Lombardi's down a yard in the backfield. It's a sack you yutz!
Drive Notes: Punt. 42-3. 11 min 3rd Q. Turtle turtle turtle turtle.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Offset 12 Tight	5-2-4	5-3 Over	1	Pass	5.5	TE Out	Colson	INT	-6.40
This is sad and Washingtonian. Harrell(+1, PR+1) clocks the RB so this has to be out to read 1, the TE out. Colson(+1, cov+3) is all over it despite the TE trying to push off. It goes off the TE's fingers and into Green(+2)'s. Backside Turner(+1) and Hill(+1) are dominating all other options.
Drive Notes: Interception. 49-3. 7 min 3rd Q. I bet NIU's local Gannett reporter is all over the recruiting implications of this passing game. Also it's backups from here.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	5-2 Under	2	Run		Counter Trey&Z Read	Mullings	2	-0.35
Whittley(+0.5) and Jeter(+0.5) stand up their doubles, Welschof(+1) worms his way through the backside to join Mullings(+1) to tackle when McGregor(+0.5) and Barrett(+0.5) have closed off the frontside because Kolesar (RPS+1) is coming off the edge and they don't have to worry about it.
O27	2nd	8	Pistol Ace Twins	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	1	Run		Buck GC	Mullings	3	-0.31
They do this by having the backside G cut Whittley, which I think is a trashy thing to be doing to a big guy at this point in the game. McGregor(+2) pushes a TE into the backfield and sets an edge inside the pulling LG. Mullings(+1, tackling+1) goes through the C, and Kolesar(+0.5) and Barrett(+0.5) are rooting around in there.
O30	3rd	5	Pistol 12 Trips 4w	5-2-4	425 Over	2	Pass		AMO	Barrett	Inc	-0.26
They put the FB wide on the backside and try to run an out vs Barrett(cov-push) who's a step behind but the ball is two yards short and not caught.
Drive Notes: Punt. 56-3. 5 min 3rd Q. It's 62-3 when they get the ball back and I had to consult my roster to figure out who was on the field for Michigan, which means we're done here.

Can you do the drive list thing?

Really?

I felt like there were yards moved or something; I want to make sure.

You’re sick. Okay.

• One ten-play, 72-yard field goal drive.
• One seven-play, 9-yard drive featuring a ton of 4th down frippery to not be 3-and-out, and which ended right back where all the frippery took place.
• Six 3-and-outs.
• Two 1-and-outs (the INT, the Hail Mary)
• Late stuff against the deep backups that I didn’t chart.

Wow. Do you think NIU was confused because we have a Hill, a Green, and a Hill-Green starting?

Not NIU but this week Michigan’s bucolic back seven finally fooled the production crew. I guarantee you this was a director requesting Hill-Green followed by several seconds of confusion and swearing.

“I’m sorry sir, Hill is on the other side of the field; did you mean Hill-Gray?”

What happened on The One Drive?

Live I thought it was well-scripted to take advantage of Michigan’s tendencies and on review I’m sure of it. The play-action pass was evil; nobody on Michigan’s side is remotely thinking pass, and NIU’s selling that like a performer who really wants you to jump at the opening acoustic dally so the electric riff will slam so hard when it hits. The F rolls in, peeking across the formation like he wants that kickout block, then checks the backside before going across like he’s worried the slant is going to get his guys. The LT rocked back like he wants an extra step on his pull. Waylee is going full speed. It’s art. It works so well that I had to give Dax Hill [UPDATE: Gemon Green] a –2 for letting a TE that Lombardi never looks at into the seam.

I also gave the –2 for the pass that was open to Ross, because I thought Hill-Green was the “follow the RB and peel” guy and Ross was the one who was supposed to cross with the F. But later Michigan defended this by having the OLB (Harrell that time) peel with a TE when he emerged from across the formation, which would put this on Hutchinson. In that case the play has no edge until the DT.

They had a successful inside zone run, then shifted both TEs and ran a split zone with the Z receiver as the kickout, which made Gemon Green into a box safety without Green realizing it.

#22 the overhang CB on the top

Then they shifted their TEs to the other side and ran power, which Michigan had stuffed until Jaylen Harrell forgot he has to protect the edge and Ross threw himself on the pile instead of staying in his gap.

#32 the OLB at the bottom

Part of the success was also by winning some interior blocks. There’s a successful double on Jenkins in the play where they got Green. Smith had a –2 on the previous inside zone when he allowed himself to get comboed.

The last big play on this drive was Harrell again forgetting there’s such a thing as an edge, in this case because that would entail a starting quarterback keeping(!) on a zone read.

One sympathizes.

How did Michigan adjust?

It was mostly a matter of making their fronts harder to read, because NIU was setting their blocking at the line. After the 2nd drive Michigan began late-shifting fronts, especially in later clock opportunities. They started using a lot more “Odd” (tackles and center covered) fronts that forced NIU to single one of the DTs, and often shifting fronts late. That tendency got attacked back when NIU waited for the shift to run and went where the DL shifted away from.

Michigan also started doing the 2018 Notre Dame thing of setting up multiple players on the edges to overwhelm the kickout attempts then trying to shoot under them. NIU didn’t cross to the left on this one but I took a screenshot so you can see how they were literally stacking defenders for the eventuality.

It was also a matter of moving the tackles, and having the LBs shoot the pullers instead of the backside of doubles, essentially trading DL-dominant play for LB-dominant play. This was part of why Hill-Green and Ross were wracking up the +’s later in the game. Watch Hill-Green here:

#41 the LB on the top on the 30 yard line

Another way to say that is to trade their 4-3 mentality for a 3-4 one, which also meant going to a 3-4.

Are those adjustments or were all of our Hills and Greens having a day?

I think there’s a way to tell.

Hill Green Hill-Green Chart.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Smith	6	5	+1	Doubles all day.
Hinton	3.5	3	0.5	Uh oh?
Jenkins	4	1.5	+2.5	Fine
Whittley	1.5	2.5	-1	Not great.
Morris	2.5		+2.5	Limited snaps, made the most of them.
Jeter	0.5	0.5	0	Backup now.
Welschof	1	1	0	Not made for doubles duty.
Speight			DNC	Came in at nose when I stopped charting.
Hutchinson	10	1	+9	In ~20 snaps while NIU was trying to avoid him.
Harrell	6	3	+3	Great edge defender except when he forgets to be.
Upshaw	1	1	0	Quietly effective.
Ojabo	2	2	0	Louder. Not quite loud enough.
McGregor	2.5	-1	+1.5	It's coming. Still next year-ish.
TOTAL	40.5	19.5	+19	NIU was no Washington but Hutch shouldn't be half the +.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ross	6.5	8	-1.5	Hutch might deserve two of the minuses. Got tentative again.
Hill-Green	11	0	+11	Hell of a game, but context: didn't have to cover at all.
Colson	3	0	+3	Back to backup, effective when he rotates in.
Mullings	2	0	+2	The McGrone is strong in this one.
Barrett	1	0	+1	Makes the right reads but too small for this work.
TOTAL	23.5	8	+15.5	Life at LB is good when there's no play-action.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	5	1	+4	Why test his edge?
Hawkins	1	1	0	One of these days he gets to catch one.
Moten	2	1	+1	NIU was heavy so this was just a nickel role.
Moore			DNC	Kolesar was in at nickel on the backup drive I charted.
Kolesar	2.5		+2.5	I count the late TFL. Kolesar!
Paige			DNC
Gem.Green	2	3	-1	Not tried in coverage. One RPS was making him the safety.
Gray	5	1	4	Likes playing run defense.
Turner	2	3	-1	Pluses all in coverage, minuses all in run D.
Johnson			DNC	Interesting he came in first.
TOTAL	19.5	10	9.5	Other than some CB run defense NIU wanted no part of this.
Metrics
Pressure	4	2	+2	NIU hates passing more than we do.
Coverage	15	4	+11	For good reason.
Tackling	7	5	+2	Waylee did damage then NHG and Gray(!) went to work.
RPS	13	5	+8	NIU had the one drive, Mac had their # when he chose to.

I do not like those DL numbers; did somebody else chart the Washington game because these look more like the WMU stuff.

Keep in mind that this was just 38 plays and the DL rotated a lot so nobody got to have much volume. That said, I think it’s now abundantly clear that Washington’s offensive line is butt. NIU’s line is made of pure run-blockers and they won their share of doubles. They were also gashing Georgia Tech, who gave Clemson’s OL trouble recently. To get anywhere however they had to win more than one of these battles, because the guys getting singled were winning theirs, and the linebackers were troublesome. This is what winning looks like:

Jeter and Whittley are moved by their doubles. When the LBs—or in this case Brad Hawkins—are added Jeter changes the story, and he and Welschof and Ross all combine to tackle at four yards. This is the same story from the Western Michigan (a good-for-the-MAC OL) game, when the DTs had similarly quiet numbers but the run defense was overall effective because when the DTs are getting moved by two guys the rest of the team is slipping through the cracks to make plays. I’m starting to believe this is the design, and the Washington result was more of a fluke of playing a bad run blocking team. Yes, they thumped Arkansas State last week, but they also threw the ball 39 times.

The good news is the young tackles seem to be on their way. Jenkins is still growing but he started and flashed—everything we are getting now is a better sign for his future, which I remind you wasn’t supposed to start until next year. Michael Morris meanwhile still seems like a guy we were going to enjoy at Anchor had the Don Brown system continued, and who’s going to be a very nice piece to keep these fronts variable. Julius Welschof probably won’t grow into a 5-2 DT but he can certainly be a pass-rushing one.

On the other hand: Nikhai Hill-Green!

I was talking about the DJ Turner issues before but if you watch those plays again both times Nikhai Hill-Green saved us from a breakout by making a play. The first one he shot into the puller to mess up a Counter Trey. The delay caused by that allows Hawkins and Turner to rally and hold it down to a just-okay gain. The second time NHG fought through a ton of trash after holding down the backside and took down the back to bring up a 3rd and long.

Neither of those are the Hill-Green play you remember. This is that play:

Plus a second week without any mistakes.

So are you putting a star on him?

Whoa, hold up. Context matters. There were only a few times that NIU tried any kind of pass, and when they went play-action Hill-Green was always blitzing or taking a running back out of the backfield. That is the Easy Assignment when it comes to linebacking. I don’t want to pour water on his ground performance because what he’s doing against the run game is everything we hoped for from him. But there’s linebacking when you get to make good choices, and there’s linebacking when there are a lot of bad ones given to you. I think Josh Ross is still getting most of the tough jobs and Hill-Green/Colson are more on cleanup duty or slamming into a blocker duty.

And Ross?

Those are not “we’re playing a MAC team” plays except the pulling G might not move as much if he’s a Wisconsin giant. Hill-Green already seems to be making fewer mistakes than Ross and is getting more of the same jobs. He had no minuses last week when rotating with Colson and dominated this week against an offense that—like Michigan’s—is constructed to make the run choices hard. But when NIU flipped the strength of the line, which they did a lot, that switched their roles and Ross reminded us why he was so good as a young seek-‘em-and-sock-‘em WLB in the first place.

Usually. He’s still got it in his head that he has to lead the team in tackles instead of playing a support role, and that leads him to wander from his gap or go in someone else’s because it’s the shortest route to the ball.

I still liked how Hill-Green acted when put in the Mike role, by which I mean he had to take on the lead blocker instead of being the free hitter or the guy who has to dodge a lineman in space. In both of the Ross plays above Green sees a gap forming off an initial double and slams his body into it. That road is closed.

Hill-Green is also seeing things better than Ross. This is a stretch zone that gets Mazi Smith caught doing the Willie Henry vs 2015 Indiana thing where he gets too far upfield and a linebacker has to close down a big gap. Ross sees the double on Jenkins is an issue but doesn’t look behind Mazi until it’s too late.

Hill-Green on this play is keeping his options open because he doesn’t like what’s happening to McGregor and wants to be able to fling into action on a cutback. Once that threat’s over with NHG shoots in to tackle before another bounce turns this into a Corum situation.

It’s harder when there’s a passing game to speak of though right?

Uh yeah, so NIU caveats have to be made here. Most of the day they were trying to run the ball and they didn’t try anyone downfield, which suggests there are some pass pro issues with that OL (or that we are all afflicted by John Harbaugh). Michigan wasn’t expecting to face many passes either, which got them in trouble when they all bit Haaaaard on an early bootleg play-action.

As soon as the game got out of hand though it was clear NIU didn’t want to subject Lombardi to any kind of pass rush (man sat behind the MSU OL for years…he’s seen some things). They used an 8-man protection on the “Hail Mary” play at the end of the first half, and were running out another 8-man protection with a fullback and two tight ends on a 3rd and 10 after The Hill-Green Play.

And we got an interrrocepiton!

And lo it was sad. There’s nowhere to go with this because Colson has the route dominated and Harrell blew up the RB who was supposed to protect Lombardi from The Bad Memories, but Gemon Green saw it and got in the spot to be in case there’s a deflection.

The coverage grade this week was “Yep, he’s covered.” There were no deep shots from Lombardi to anybody. When a deep route appeared on screen you had to squint to see the body parts of the receiver to be sure he was under there. The weird thing is that was NIU’s whole thing last year. They even got back the receiver they liked to do it with.

A wild Hutchinson appears!

I was getting mopey about the lack of Hutchinson things this game as NIU ran away from him, and Michigan did the WMU thing where they were content to let Hutchinson rest on the sideline every other drive. Then came a must-pass down late when the Huskies were loathe to subject Lombardi to any more hits or more than two guys to read. And Hutchinson sacked anyways.

At least that’s a sack to me; it wasn’t to the scorers, who don’t use half yard lines and adjusted to the wrong one. QB goes down behind the line: sack. Otherwise put the yard markers at the halves.

Anything you learned about the secondary?

Not much since they were barely tested. Moten had one missed tackle and then made a stick for a minimal gain after coming down from way deep:

On the other hand, the offseason assertions that DJ Turner II has passed Vincent Gray are becoming even more ridiculous. We watched this play already in the Hill-Green section but watch the cornerback at the top. The play after The Drive, NIU was testing Turner’s edge defense by their alignment. He…failed.

#5 the CB on the top

He needs to replace when that WR cracks down on Hawkins but travels with the guy instead, turning a TFL into a decent gain (which NIU wiped out by trying to shove Hawkins after the whistle). The next play Turner tried to go inside of the releasing tackle on a stretch zone instead of forcing it back to help—that was the one NHG rescued after Ross missed a tackle. Sorry I keep using the same plays here but there were only 38 of them.

Will Brad Hawkins ever intercept a ball thrown to his hands?

The broadcast and my angle in the stadium both made it look like there was a giftwrapped interception that he dropped. From this angle it looks like it would have been a lot harder to bring in, or at least he would have had to react to it faster.

He’ll get one eventually. These are circus catches after all; many a receiver has gone 0/4 in the 1 column.

If NIU runs Michigan’s (Ravens’) offense why does it feel like they’re going up the gut and we go outside?

It’s a matter of what’s going on at the edges. In the late Brown years Michigan didn’t trust their DTs and started playing to spill. Macdonald’s deal is he would rather start with a lot of beef inside and then use the rest of his guys to force it back in. You can feel the “force it back in” character alignment of this setup, and that’s what they’re trying to do: bash in the edges and force the ball back to the meat. Roll tape, and watch the two ends, but especially Harrell (32) on the left as he spies the TE coming across to kick him.

That’s not always the play, but you’ll notice all year Michigan’s had to go around and pin that guy inside, especially when the crosser is a lineman. Defenses don’t like the physics of a Zak Zinter impacting, like, a 200-pound “SAM” linebacker they have patrolling the edge—better to test whether Zinter has the agility to control a bugger shooting inside of him while another defender flips outside to replace him. Michigan, by contrast, is playing with two true defensive ends at “outside linebacker” and this is where they get to use that extra mass. A tight end with a head of steam doesn’t have that much advantage on a guy the same size putting a shoulder into him. Michigan’s guys also can’t get turned. They’re setting up in the backfield, where any attempt to go around them is going to just cut off the exits further. It’s then up to all of those interior defenders, including the linebackers, to win their battles with the guys inside until there’s nowhere for the ball to escape.

Harrell himself has started to find creative ways to win this battle.

#32 the OLB at the bottom

That’s the kind of stuff that the WMU DE, Ali Fayad, that I really like was doing to us. A big lineman running across the formation doesn’t have a lot of agility to play chicken with this edge dude. He needs to pop him or turn him—one or the other. Here Harrell messed up that guy’s angle by setting up high then popping low. Note that he’s still got the edge. He’s also restricted it. Ross takes out the lead blocker and Harrell is there, and the kickout blocker is on his knees, useless.

So is Harrell your choice for non-Hutchinson OLB?

He had the biggest mental mistakes of the options, but yeah, either him or Morris right now is doing it most for me. Upshaw is comparatively vanilla, but doesn’t have bad plays. Morris is a good option when they’re going with a lot of 4-2-5 because he can play end or slide inside to tackle if they want to turn that into a 5-1-5 front without changing the personnel.

Ojabo still makes too many mistakes to be a full-time player but he has the most upside as a DE-sized dude who can move like a linebacker. McGregor is getting more playing time and has a lot of potential as a Hutchinson-like down the line.

What was up with that 4th and 1 sequence?

Just trying to give Harbaugh some of his own medicine. I think we all believed they would punt after it didn’t work. Here it is in all its glory:

 

The far more interesting play was the one before it, which I called “Pocket” after something in an old Yost playbook from 1908. I wish I had a better angle of this but if you squint you can see what they did here:

You have Hutchinson bent over Mazi Smith, and then Hutchinson rolls to his right on the snap. This puts his back in between Smith and the blockers trying to wedge him out of there by getting lower, which gives Mazi the tiny bit of leverage he needs to win the low man game. And there’s a big Hutchinson back in the way of everything. Lombardi may have been able to take advantage of that but he fumbled. It was still a cool way to defend a sneak that I don’t think I’ve seen before.

Did they try to edge Dax Hill this week?

Yes they did.

How did it work out for them?

As it does.

Will they keep trying it?

Undoubtedly.

Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?

As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week:

1. Erick All. Played tight end, receiver, and pure fullback(!) while grading out as Michigan’s best blocker (+13/-0) despite being the quintessential YMRMFSPA Jake Butt. Caught a seam that made everyone believe in McNamara as a passer a little bit more. Enjoys making cross-formation kickout blocks on split zone, which are the highway overpasses of blocks.

2. Junior Colson. Played some inside linebacker, outside linebacker, and nickel as a true freshman who lived in Haiti until he was a teenager, and arrived at Michigan reputedly very raw. Provided the coverage that led to Green’s interception. From Tennessee, which state is figuratively, literally, conceptually, morally, and architecturally a highway overpass.

3. Caden Kolesar. Handed off punt return duties to AJ Henning and became his most effective blocker. Played some nickel for Dax Hill, a little bit of WLB, deep safety, and even blitzed off the edge like an OLB, getting a TFL, despite being one of those walk-ons people think are only here because their dads played with Harbaugh. Kindly introduced himself to my kid on Saturday while hanging out under the Crisler Center’s porch, which is highway overpass-like.

3-2-1 point system and still no repeats yet so our standings are:

3: Ronnie Bell, Ryan Hayes, Erick All
2: Mike Sainristil, Hassan Haskins, Junior Colson
1: Nikhai Hill-Green, Aidan Hutchinson, Cade Kolesar

All complaints about these selections should be directed to Bill Kolesar.

Heroes?

Hutchinson, Hill-Green.

Maybe not so heroic?

The DTs went back to being mortal men. Josh Ross.

What does it mean for Rutgers and the future?

The DT grading might be a feature not a bug. Day was reminiscent of WMU, where they’re getting doubled a lot, give up ground sometimes, don’t sometimes, and come out decidedly un-Brandon Graham-like because they can’t offset that with pass rushes and big rip-into-the-backfield plays.

Nikhai Hill-Green is lethal when he doesn’t have to worry about the pass. Trying not to look too hard at the upcoming schedule.

Josh Ross is still Figuring It Out. He was less aggressive this week, and reverted to his WMU-level scoring.

Coverage: Ask again later. There was nothing to learn here. DJ Turner II probably was never ahead of Gray.

Whittley is serviceable. Rotated with Smith against a heavy front team and made it to play five before getting gassed.

There may be life after Hutchinson. Positive signs and fixable issues from the OLBs and a couple of young DTs.