FORMATION NOTES: Rutgers is a standard 2020 spread gun team that runs a lot of 2TE sets. Michigan spent much of the night with Green in press on the backside WR:

Setups like these usually run that backside corner in man; sometimes if the WR crosses the formation they'll convert into a zone. The implication: this was a zone-first gameplan.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Kemp/Hinton/Jeter were in there almost all the time, with Vilain and Upshaw splitting the weakside end spot. DT rotation came from Speight and Mazi Smith, who does exist. Newburg got in a little, comming a personal foul. Welschof's time was limited.

At LB, Barrett/McGrone/Ross the whole way until McGrone went out and Shibley came in. Secondary the usual until Hawkins went out and Reynolds came in. 3-3-5 pretty limited, with under 10 BVS snaps.

[After THE JUMP: Rutgers looks like football team]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O27	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Ross	2
M plays to spill and has McGrone scraping over the top with no one to block him so this is going to go well. Upshaw dives inside and gets turned; Ross(+1) comes up and blasts the TE, then grabs Pacheco in the backfield; he’s able to grind out a couple yards. RPS +1, McGrone was unblocked and unneeded.
O29	2	8	Gun 2TE twins	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off one high	Pass	5	Corner	Hinton	Inc
Hinton(+1, pressure +1) drives the C back into the QB’s lap; he has to reset his feet and still takes contact from his OL, probably, on the throw. Resulting attempt is off. It’s a corner route at Green’s guy and Green is in okay-at-best coverage.
O29	3	8	Gun trips TE	3-3-5	Nickel over	Half press two high	Pass	3	Post	Barrett	Inc
Three man rush with Kemp, Jeter, and Upshaw. No one gets through(pressure -2) as QB takes forever. QB airmails it but looks like Barrett(+2, cover +2) is running this route for the WR after bailing to a Tampa-2 spot.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 14 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O29	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high?	Run	N/A	Power O	Jeter	2
DT twist means Hinton vacates the area this targets. Jeter(+2) has a tough ask here; C with position blocks down on him; he gets a yard of depth and extends, shedding to tackle. Vilain slid down the line and sought out a T to hit instead of zipping past him to help Jeter, but he prevents some YAC so push.
O31	2	8	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Half press two high	Pass	5	Slant	Ross	9
M blitzes and pulls Hawkins up to the LB level as Green has pure man on the backside WR. LB level does not slide to field; Ross(-2, cover -2) sucks up on the wrong slant and allows a catch and run. Hill(+1, tackling +1) delivers a stick to shut down the danger. First read right so pressure can’t get there.
O40	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ross	0 (Pen -10)
Ross(+3) tips his blitz and gets the LG coming to him but dips under him at the last second and is through him into the backfield. He tackles for no gain and draws a holding call.
O30	1	20	Gun trips TE	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Pass	4	Flat	Green	6
PA; BVS drops into RPO slant prevention territory and gets stuck there a bit. That’s understandable. Vedral kind of floats the open flat route so M can rally on this, with Green(+0.5) coming up to get this relatively quickly.
O36	2	14	Gun trips TE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Off one high	Pass	4	Sack	Hinton	-7
Hinton(+3, pressure +3) blows through a guard and immediately sacks. This may be some RPS stuff here because RU is pulling the C on play action and G initially steps to sell the run and Hinton just ignores that because it’s second and 14.
O29	3	21	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	3	Slant	Ross	9
LBs look up the right slants this time and Ross(+0.5, cover +1) whacks this guy shortly after the catch. Gray(+0.5) also there.
Drive Notes: Punt,0-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O43	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off one high	Pass	4	Post	Hill	43
This is technically PA, I guess, but RB goes to wrong side of handoff and nobody buys it. QB puts up a post route against a free safety in position but Hill(-3, cover -3) drifts back and allows the WR to high point the ball instead of either hitting him or getting a PBU. Pressure (-2) nowhere near.
M14	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press one high	Run	N/A	Bash	Ross	10
Ross(-2) pops out outside the OT here and seems to have this covered before inexplicably slowing up and getting beat to the corner.
M4	1	G	Goal line empty	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press zero	Run	N/A	QB lead	Vilain	1
M has no response to RU coming heavy and isn’t even aligned on the snap when this gets off with 14 on the clock.Vilain(+1) is off the LOS but gets into his guy and extends off him to close the gap; Hawkins comes around the back to tackle.
M3	2	G	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press zero	Run	N/A	QB power	Ross	3
M again confused as Hawkins runs to the 2TE side right at the snap. Vilain(+1) whacks the puller and starts a tackle attempt at the LOS but gets zero support. McGrone(-1) stops and looks for ghosts; Ross(-1) wanders outside into the force lane Green is in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 4 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O27	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Pass	4	Out	Gray	12
Looks like cover two with Gray well off (probably, tight shot); Gray(-1, cover -1) never falls off the deeper route and is easy high-lowed. Pressure -1.
O39	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Off one high	Run	N/A	Counter shovel	Upshaw	4
Fake edge pitch with a wing TE coming under it for the shovel. Upshaw(+1) supposed to be optioned off and is not; pulling OL passes him up and he comes to tackle from the side. No support. Hinton(-2) buckled by a brief double and goes to a knee. Hill(+1) does fly up fast to hit the RB late.
O43	2	6	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press one high	Pass	4	Waggle scramble	Upshaw	2
Michigan covers(+2) all of this half-field read. Upshaw(-1) is the guy flying up on the edge and trips; this turns a likely throwaway into a modest scramble gain.
O45	3	4	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Off one high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Ross	0
M moves Ross(+1) own late over the TE and he gives that guy the business. WR has to bend significantly and he’s going into the boundary. Green(-1, tackling -1) has a TFL opportunity and whiffs; Hawkins(+1) shuts it down at the LOS. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O31	1	10	Gun 4-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Pass	5	Out	Gray	6
Hi-low a cover two corner again; Gray(+0.5, cover +1) able to come off this time and tackle immediately. Ball out too fast for blitz to get home but it’s picked up(pressure -2) anyway. McGrone exits, Shibley in.
O37	2	4	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Hinton	3
Barrett(+0.5) and Shibley(+0.5) able to run up and jam up the POA by hitting the pullers and standing them up; Hinton(-0.5) had given ground on his double and there’s a lane to burrow into.
O40	3	1	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Hawkins	13
This is likely to convert plus a yard or two as M jams it up fairly well but doesn’t get anyone penetrating; RB then notices that Hawkins(-2) is getting nosy inside so there’s no edge and busts it out for a chunk play.
M47	1	10	Pistol TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Pass	5	PA fly	Green	Inc
Green is right in phase with his head around here and then kind of loses the plot? Melton gets some separation late as Green slows slightly, but ball is long and wide. Window here was small, and then sizeable (-1, cover -1) Pocket clean(pressure -2).
M47	2	10	Gun 4-wide	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	3	Out	Gray	7
Quck out attacking cover two; Gray(+0.5, cover +1) jams the outside WR and turns around as he’s in-phase and is then able to drop off to tackle the out. RPS -1, as this little hole is easy read and yardage and this is the second time tis drive.
M40	3	3	Gun quads	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press one high	Run	N/A	QB draw	BVS	4
BVS(-1) twist blitzing with Speight, the NT. He blasts his guy but goes too vertical and doesn’t close the gap Speight vacated. Vilain(+0.5) shed a block and dives at Vedral but can’t bring him down; Shibley(+0.5) has a free releaser and gets off to tackle, just not in time.
M36	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Half press one high	Run	N/A	Reverse	Gray	32
M rotates the safeties on jet action so Hill attacks the jet and Hawkins rotates back, and Hawkins is not hear from the rest of the play. M has a shot to deal with this but Gray(-1) plays his force badly; he’s essentially on the sideline and not force at all. This allows the WR to get past Ross(+1), who ripped down a WR and tackles this if it’s not a yard from the sideline. Hill(-2) fires at the jet fake, fair enough, but then seems to jog across the formation and only accelerate late. No routes here so Hawkins(-1) getting blocked way downfield and never getting off of this really is a major issue, but he’s offscreen so I can’t say if this is 1 or 2. RPS -1.
M4	1	G	Gun 4TE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press zero	Pass	N/A	Waggle scramble	Barrett	3
Wildcat/redzone QB in, waggle, covered(+2), Kemp(-1) never gets out on this on the edge(pressure -1) so Barrett gets the honor of getting blasted by a guy who’s got momentum while he has to cover until the last second.
M1	2	G	Gun empty trip TE	5-2-3	Goal line	Press zero	Run	N/A	Split zone	N/A	1
They get it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-14, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O39	1	10	Pistol TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Zone read keeper	Ross	-2 (Pen -10)
Jet fake, handoff designed to go left of C, and then this looks like it’s supposed to hit inside the split block from the TE. Ross(+2) fires back the OT and threatens to dive inside, which spooks Vedral outside; Ross able to mirror this Vedral stops and the cavalry whoops up on him. Green got held.
O29	1	20	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	5	Out	Gray	5
Only 3 guys in this route and M covers(+2) it; Gray(+0.5) is on this out, the safe option, and tackles immediately.
O34	2	15	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press one high	Pass	5	Fade	Green	Inc
M coming through on this as Hinton(+1, pressure +1) busts through the middle and will hit on non-quick throw; fades are quick. Green(+1, cover +1) in phase and handfighting with WR so he can only make a diving one handed stab.
O34	3	15	Gun trips	3-3-5	Okie	Off two high	Run	N/A	QB draw	Mullings	21
Jet motion, fake a flare screen to him. That takes Paige down and out of the play as Gray rotates back. Mullings(-2) gets a free run from the back but falls over. Shibley(-2) almost certainly misses a stunt call as Welschof slants left away from center and he ends up in the same spot. Gray(-2) never comes up at all. By the time Vedral gets tackled 20 yards downfield Gray is standing six yards away from the play, unblocked.
M45	1	10	???	4-2-5	???	???	Pass	4	Slant	Green	10
Gray(-1, cover -1) beaten on a slant and barely makes a shoestring tackle to keep it from being worse.
M35	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Reverse	N/A	-6
WR fumbles the reverse pitch. Lucky, as this is massively open with a wrong-footed Shibley(-1) the only thing between the WR and a huge gain. RPS -2.
M41	2	16	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press one high	Pass	5	Out	Newburg	6 + 15 pen
Newburg(+1, pressure +1) able to loop around and get to the QB as Smith(+1) clears a path for him with a bull rush, and then Newburg(-3) hits the QB late. Hawkins(+0.5, cover +1) able to tackle immediately but not challenge on a looping high throw.
M20	1	10	Gun trips TE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Shibley	0
Rutgers OL pass sets so that’s a thing. Smith(+1) loops around Speight and launches an OL into the backfield to force a cutback and an unblocked Shibley(+0.5) comes up to tackle.
M20	2	10	Gun trips TE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Pass	5	Slot fade	Hill	Inc
Hill(+1, cover +1) in the WR’s pocket but ends up falling ot the ground because WR shoves him to it, refs -3. Throw is an excellent back-shoulder attempt; WR has it and then loses it. Pocket clean(pressure -2)
M20	3	10	Gun trips	4-1-6	Dime over	Press two high	Pass	5	Fade	Green	Inc
Ross(+1, pressure +1) runs over the RB and gets to QB, quick fade. Green(+1, cover +1) in good position; doesn’t get his head around but good chance he PBUs anything catchable; not catchable.
Drive Notes: FG(37), 0-17, 4 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	4	Comeback	Green	12
This is offscreen so not sure what happens but Green(-2, cover -2) is five yards away on this comeback. Pocket mostly clean but Upshaw(+0.5) does get through late and hits.
O37	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press one high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Jeter	3
Jeter(+1) drives through the C, yard in backfield. RB cuts behind this and Jeter comes off to tackle; Shibley(+0.5) ran up to hit the C and joins in.
O40	2	7	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press one high	Run	N/A	Edge pitch	Gray	4
Gray(+0.5) crack replaces well and forces this out after a modest gain. Shibley(+0.5) shows pretty good range here to eliminate a cutback option.
O25	3	3	Gun TTE	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Waggle comebck	Green	Inc
Just two guys in the route; Hawkins(+0.5) has the flat; Green maybe beat on the comeback but a low throw to the outside is uncatchable and he could have had a play on a reasonably thrown ball.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-17, 2 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Power O	Upshaw	7
This ends up cutting all the way behind somehow. Upshaw(-2) doesn’t set an edge. Frontside looks okay with Kemp(+1) spilling it and Shibley(+0.5) there, free, as Barrett(+0.5) does set an edge. Pacheco all the way to the backside.
O32	2	3	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Power O	Hawkins	7
Hawkins(-2) doesn’t set an edge. This is less egregious because at least the play is coming to him and he sets it initially before biting on a juke inside but sheesh. Kemp(+1) shed his downblock and threatens; Shibley(+0.5) scraped to the POA, if there’s contain this is probably third and short.
O39	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Off one high	Pass	5	Seam	Hill	61
Max pro, two man route. Hill(-4, cover -4) is the free safety and lets Melton run right by him in bracket coverage.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-24, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press one high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Shibley	3
Shibley(+1) sent on a blitz wide as Kemp(+1) dives inside. Shibley able to climb outside a guard and set an edge as the tackle goes for BVS; Kemp able to flow down the line and make the tackle this set up. Ross(+0.5) comes up to finish.
O28	2	7	Pistol trips TE	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press one high	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	N/A	8
M has just two DBs in the area against the trips and when they back out from an aggressive look presnap they just back out vertically; meanwhile this makes the presnap look, already bubble-friendly, a free first down. (RPS -2) Hawkins leaves the game, Reynolds for the remainder.
O36	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Kemp	0
Tough ask against a line shifted towards your stretch; Kemp(+1) wins and sets a hard edge; Jeter(+1) wins against a double; Shibley(+0.5) and Ross(+0.5) both get to the cutback.
O36	2	10	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	Reynolds	7 (Pen -10)
Tempo, M still getting set. Reynolds(+1) flies up from offscreen in a dodgy situation to force this wide, whereupon Gray(+0.5) is held after setting an edge.
O26	2	20	Pistol 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	4	Improv	Hill	31
Barrett(-1) blitzes off the slot; he gets blocked and falls way upfield. QB bugs out, doesn’t have to. BVS(-1) comes up and airballs a tackle attempt, pressure -2. Vedral at the sideline punts up a prayer that is answered. Hill(+0.5) is right there on a scramble drill and just can’t rake it out.
M41	1	10	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Half press two high	Pass	N/A	RPO bubble	N/A	9
Gray bails from press to offscreen as Hill slides down for seven in the box, Rutgers reads this either pre- or post-snap and fires a wide, wide open bubble. (RPS -2)
M32	2	1	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	4	RPO bubble	N/A	5
Less open but we’ve got a CB faking press and bailing on the snap and a slot LB being held by run action with the safety to this side 12 yards off the LOS. RPS -1.
M27	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Off one high	Run	N/A	Counter	Ross	2
Counter step from the RB and that hurts him because Ross(+1) blitzes off the backside clean and dude doesn’t widen out enough to outrun him. This seems way too vertical from the back with Upshaw(+1) inside and also in position to tackle. RPS +1.
M25	2	8	Gun twins	4-2-5	4-3 under	Off two high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Jeter	1
Another stretch at a shifted line; Jeter(+1) controls and sheds, forcing a cutback and getting in a tackle attempt. Hinton gets blown up but since it’s a triple team we’ll let it slide; this allows Upshaw(+0.5) to flow unimpeded and tackle.
M24	3	7	Gun twins	4-1-6	4-3 over SAM	Press two high	Pass	6	Slot fade	Hill	Inc
Slot fade; Hill(+2, cover +2) wins against it and gets his head around for a PBU; Reynolds(+1, cover +1) also got over the top of this; M blitzes and Ross(+1) loops around free(pressure +2) to force the first read throw.
Drive Notes: FG(41), 21-27, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O22	1	10	Pistol twins	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Arc zone keeper	Upshaw	-1
Ross sent, picked up, Upshaw charges off the edge free. Likely a missed read by QB as he keeps but Upshaw mostly overruns him. Upshaw does grab him and yank one arm back, and then QB fumbles. +0.5? Hinton(+0.5) had read the keep and fought to this to widend it out but strong chance of a good gain if not for the fumble.
O21	2	11	Pistol TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press one high	Pass	5	PA fly	Ross	Inc
Ross(+1, pressure +1) blitzes off the edge late and gets an RB; he is able to shed this and hit on the catch but largely because Vedral doesn’t use the pocket in front of him. Ball is OOB.
O21	3	11	Gun trips	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press one high	Pass	N/A	Flare screen	BVS	6
Covered slot for RU, motion the WR to the field over to the trips side and try to get it with a screen. BVS(+1) widens and then runs through a block to force a cutback into lots of persons.
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-27, 2 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O19	1	10	Gun 4-wide	4-2-5	4-3 under	Half press two high	Pass	5	Out	Green	Inc
M shifts late, backing out the slot S and converting the man look from Green into a trap corner; RU falls for the trap. Attempted hi-low action instead gets a PBU from Green(+2, cover +2); RPS +1.
O19	2	10	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	???	???	Run	N/A	Power O	Upshaw	5
Come to this late with Kemp chasing unblocked from behind; Upshaw(-1) blasted off LOS with double, BVS backing out and fires late but does get to set some sort of edge so Kemp(+0.5) can track it down.
O24	3	5	Gun trips	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press one high	Pass	4	Slant	Shibley	14
RB motion out to create a quads empty look just before the snap; Shibley(-2, cover -2) ends up right next to Ross instead of covering a slant that is a chunk play.
O38	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press one high	Pass	5	PA sack	Ross	-11
Ross tips this a little and gets a guard trying to block him, and then he just runs right by for a sack(+3 ,pressure +3).
O27	2	21	Gun trips	3-3-5	5-1 nickel	Half press one high	Run	N/A	QB draw	N/A	8
Three man rush so either the center’s occupied, which is, or there’s an edge, which there isn’t. Vedral gets a chunk that is more or less mutually agreed upon.
O36	3	13	Gun trips	4-1-6	Dime even	Off two high	Pass	N/A	Flare screen	Green	5
Give up and punt. Green(+0.5) does a good job to get across the formation and slow Melton and that’s all it takes.
Drive Notes: Punt, 28-27, 11 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off two high	Pass	5	Out	Ross	9
Another confident cover two prediction that sees a simple out gain almost ten yards; Shibley sent on a blitz that’s never getting there and while Ross(-0.5, tackling -1) leaks some yards this is a tough ask, RPS -1.
O34	2	1	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Hill	6
Barrett gets doubled and gives ground, inevitably; this leaves Hill(-1, tackling -1) free on the edge; he comes down to tackle Pacheco after about a yard and somehow this turns into six? Jeter(+0.5) stuck pretty well against a double, FWIW.
O40	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	5	Out	Ross	11
Another basic out against zone that asks Ross to make up many lateral yards against a slot. Ross(-1, tackling -1) does overplay the edge after the catch and leak another 3-4 yards but this is easy, repeated, and productive. RPS -1.
M49	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Arc read give	Upshaw	4
100% missed read from RU QB as Upshaw(-1) shuffles down and is unblocked against the RB. He has a free shot at RB at LOS and RB grinds out 4 YAC.
M45	2	6	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Off one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Reynolds	3
Barrett(+0.5) shuffles down and takes on a blocker; a second guy pulls to hit him and he gets blown out. Inevitable. Reynolds(+1) pops up on the edge after Pacheco bounces and gets the everliving hell stiffarmed out of him but still makes the tackle(+1).
M42	3	3	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Off one high	Pass	6	Slant	Gray	9
This is where we’re at: eight yard cushion on third and three, uncontested slant completion on Gray(-1, cover -1).
M33	1	10	Gun trips TE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Off two high	Run	N/A	Power O	Hill	2
Similar to earlier power on this drive but Hill(+0.5) tackles better after being unblocked off the edge. Ross(+0.5) took on one blocker and then scraped outside, getting obliterated by a second but also paving the way for Hill. RPS +1.
M31	2	8	Gun trip TE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press one high	Pass	5	Slot fade	Reynolds	Inc
Hinton(+0.5, pressure +1) looping through for some pressure; Ross(+0.5) dodges under a tackle and also threatens. Slot fade is way long. Reynolds in okay position.
M31	3	8	Gun TTE	4-1-6	Dime even	Press two high	Pass	4	Slant	Hill	9
Massively disappointing here as Hill lines up with outside leverage against a guy he can absolutely track by playing it straight up and gives up an easy slant first down. Hill -1, cover -1.
M22	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	???	???	Penalty	N/A	False start	N/A	-5
RU called for a false start as it looks like they’re not set as they try to tempo.
M27	1	15	Gun TTE	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Power O	Shibley	2
RU TE thinks he’s kicking out until pulling G does so block on Shibley(+0.5) doesn’t come until it’s too late; Shibley runs up and pops RB.
M25	2	13	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Barrett	2
Barrett(+1) fires upfield hard, dives inside to help induce a bounce, and then is back outside to widen it out. Reynolds again gets obliterated by a stiffarm but manages to put RB in the sideline. Dodgy. Shibley(+0.5) ran up to hit an OL to help induce the bounce.
M23	3	11	Gun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Pass	5	Slant	Green	11
Green(-1, cover -1) beat on a slant. Woof.
M12	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press two high	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	N/A	Inc
Tempo, M not really set. RU aborts power into a bubble that is 6-8 easy but QB misses. RPS -1.
M12	2	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press one high	Run	N/A	Power O	Upshaw	1
RU pulls the M and has two guys block the same guy on power. Upshaw(+1) rocks his guy back and chip blocks a puller, who decides to kick a LB. Shibley(+0.5) ripping up into the gap provided. RB cuts away into nothing; Jeter(+0.5) tackles with Upshaw.
M11	3	9	Gun trips TE	4-1-6	Nickel even SAM	Press two high	Pass	4	Throwaway	Hill	Inc
Same play as a slant earlier where Shibley went up on the wrong guy. This time both slants are covered(+2) and QB hesitates; pocked done now as M crushes it closed and Barrett(+0,5, pressure +1) comes off the edge. Attempted wheel on Ross(+1, cover +1) is heaved OOB with Ross in the pocket.
M11	4	9	Gun empty	3-3-5	5-1 nickel	Press two high	Pass	3	Improv	Hinton	11
Hinton(+2, pressure +2) crushes the C back and then rips through him, direct pressure up the middle, but M has just three rushers and no one to clean up so QB steps up in pocket, M does solid job to recover with Kemp running him down, chucks up ball to WR, TD. Pure improv with WR running a hitch BVS is under and then moving, Reynolds(+0.5, cover +1) tries to get over but just cannot quite do it, rakes at ball, nope. RPS -1.
M3	2PT	2PT	Gun trips	4-1-6	Nickel even	Press zero	Run	N/A	QB draw	Paige	3
Your main problem here is that Paige(-1) is not a linebacker and is instead a freshman safety. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown(2PT, 35-35, EORegulation
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	2
Jeter(+1) fires back a single block to force a cutback; Hinton and Ross(+0.5) do okay with their guys; Upshaw comes over to tackle from behind
M23	2	8	Gun trips	4-1-6	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Flare screen	Shibley	-2
Shibley(+2) moves out on this as he’s in man; slaloms through a couple of WR blocks; TFLs.
M25	3	10	Gun 4TE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Off one high	Run	N/A	Kneel down	N/A	-2
The dumbest play. What are you doing?
Drive Notes: Missed G(49), EO1OT
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Half press one high	Pass	4	Throwback screen	N/A	25
Jet fake, rollout, screen back to the TE to the other side. Honesltly cannot fault M here too much as this requires an incredible looping throw that the TE catche at a full run and Barrett and Kemp will tackle on anything short of this. Tip the cap. But also RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 42-35, EO2OT
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun trips	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Pass	5	Drag	Green	4
Hinton(+1, pressure +3) gets a free run s Shibley blitzes and RU busts their pickup; RU WR runs his mesh route short and other mesh guy cannot pick off Green(+0.5, cover +1), who tackles immediately. He leaks 3 yards of YAC, though.
M21	2	6	Gun trips TE	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Double pass fade	Green	Inc
Flare action, backwards pass, throw. Green(+1, cover +1) does not bite and mirrors the WR as he breaks deep, WR throw OOB.
M21	3	6	Gun trips TE	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Scramble	BVS	-3
Flash screen aborted. BVS(+1) blows through a WR trying to block him, causing QB to not throw, and then his scramble loses yards.
M24	4	9	Gun trips TE	3-3-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	3	Wheel	Hill	INT
This OC has been very good all night but this is garbage. Flash screen threatened with WRs faking blocks and running deep, on fourth and nine. Two WRs in this route. Both are super-bracketed, Hill(+1, cover +1) over the top of the WR to INT. RPS +2. WTF.
Drive Notes: Interception, 48-42, EOG.

Zounds!

What?

Zounds!

Mmm-hmm. Drive summary:

• TD drives of 57, 69, 75, 75, and 25 yards.
• FG drives of 41 and 51 yards.
• Seven three-and-outs or first-down-and-outs
• One 21-yard drive.

This is a 50/50 split between success and failure against Rutgers, which entered the game averaging 8.1 yards per completion. Noah Vedral threw for 381 yards. It's real bad.

In what ways is it real bad?

I mean, the usual. Michigan can't run man and they can't run zone. This game was almost entirely Michigan not running zone well with the exception of Gemon Green, who was mostly stuck on the backside receiver and asked to run man against him as the rest of the defense zoned.

Michigan's trying to up their game here by doing a lot more late movement than they've tried previously, with mixed results. They got off the field on their first opportunity when Barrett bailed to a deep zone and Vedral threw it into his area:

S #23 bailing

This was not consistent. Unfortunately, the zones became as easy to read as man coverage for Vedral. He repeatedly hit simple outs for good yardage as Gray didn't fall off his guy in time:

Gray improved in this regard later but even so that was only good enough to hold these down to 6-7 yards instead of the 12 above, and sometimes this stuff fell to a linebacker trying to make up 2-3 yards laterally against a slot WR.

It didn't go well.

Michigan trapped this once, getting Green a PBU that may have ended up being an INT if the play works out a little differently, but that came late and the tradeoffs here were not very good.

Meanwhile Michigan continued to struggle to put themselves in the right spots. Various slants were wide open as linebackers either picked the wrong one to deal with or players just got beat:

LB #12 to bottom

LB #45

Double slants have been a consistent issue for LBs in zone, as the interior slant tends to take the exterior slant's guy away.

Finally in zone issues, Rutgers repeatedly bubbled soft Michigan coverage:

That is late motion that takes Gray offscreen and is read either pre- or post-snap by Rutgers. So, the usual. They don't know what they're doing.

I sense a theme.

It is a theme. Michigan errors extended beyond zone coverage that has not been a program emphasis to date. The two plays before the massive Hill bust touchdown both featured Michigan entirely failing to set an edge on run plays. First it's Upshaw:

DE #91 to top

And then it's Hawkins:

S #20 to top

And then of course there was the massive bust touchdown.

Fire Dax Hill!

Michigan has no alternatives and he's going to get an opportunity to play through his mistakes. There were a lot of them. Hill was Not Good as a deep safety. The replay on the first bomb really emphasizes that Hill was content to try to catch the ball in his chest:

And then this:

FS #30

It is my analytical opinion that this was not good coverage. That's a two man route, by the way.

He had other issues, as well. He could have held the chunk reverse down to about ten yards after he recovered from the jet fake, but he sort of jogged to the other sideline and by the time he realized he needed to get on his horse it was too late:

S #30 attacking jet

Some people online were complaining about a lack of effort from Hill; I don't think that's the case. I do think this was a poor read of what was likely to happen.

One thing I don't think you can put on Hill is the improv bomb. He ends up being the closest guy but not a whole lot you can do about this:

S #30

He's in excellent position until very late when the WR breaks it deeper and the ensuing throw is inside, which is not usually where you want it. Part bad luck and part two different edge pressure options either falling over (Barrett) or getting beat to the edge(BVS).

Also, while I mentioned Reynolds getting over the top on that slot fade in the game column I did not mention that it was unnecessary because Hill had already PBUd the pass:

S #30 over the slot

There he's over the slot, of course.

On the other hand:

S #30 over the slot

I assure Dax Hill that he can play that guy straight up and still win against a slot fade. He seems to do some pointing mid-play, as well: another one to chalk up, at least in part, to a hurried switch to more zones.

Michigan's other safeties didn't exactly shine.

Michigan had an odd problem with their free safeties taking way too long to introduce themselves into run plays. We got no replays that had an All-22 view of these plays, so I can't tell you if there was some reason, but it leapt out on a couple plays. The reverse above only sees Hawkins enter the screen some 25 yards downfield.

The QB draw that converted on third and fifteen featured jet motion that rotated Gray back to safety, and when Vedral is tackled 20 yards downfield Gray is standing by himself six yards away from the play:

S #4 to right

There were some exceptions; Hill got a couple points for flying up fast and Reynolds helped induce a hold.

I sense this is not going to be a pretty chart.

Actually… could be worse?

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Speight				DNC
Smith	2		2	Somewhat encouraging
Kemp	4.5	1	3.5	Various run game wins, no impact as rusher.
Jeter	7		7	Consistent Ws on ground, no impact as rusher
Hinton	9	2.5	6.5	Two major interior rushes.
Welschof				DNC
Upshaw	4.5	5	-0.5	Eh
Ojabo				DNC
Newburg	1	3	-2	Rush stunt, flag on it
Vilain	2.5		2.5
TOTAL	30.5	11.5	+19	Fairly muted given competition.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Barrett	5	1	4	PBU on first play.
McGrone		1	-1	Left early.
Ross	19	6.5	13.5	Major bounceback with two +3 plays.
Shibley	8.5	5	3.5	Ton of +0.5s
BVS	2	2	0
Mullings		2	-2	Fell over on QB draw
Mohan				DNP
TOTAL	34.5	17.5	+17	Big Ross bounceback.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	7	11	-4	Giant errors offset various other good plays.
Hawkins	2	5	-3	Left in second half.
Gray	3	6	-3	No PI, at least?
Green	6.5	5	1.5	Ran a couple routes for WR, boggling PI
Paige		1	-1	Lost leverage three times.
Reynolds	3.5		3.5	Find?
Turner				DNP
TOTAL	21	28	-6	The usual, with different culprits.
Metrics
Pressure	20	14	+6	Another big step back without Paye.
Coverage	27	18	+9	Improvement, mostly.
Tackling	2	4	-2	Pacheco has some moves.
RPS	7	15	-8	Repeated easy bubbles and outs.

This may not be as bad as you might expect—it certainly wasn't as bad as I expected. I tend to top out at –3s and –4s for big plays given up and maybe that's not enough to quantify the impact of free sixty-yard TDs. Also a –8 in RPS is a big chunk of yards that Rutgers got by running those outs, reverses that always work, and a ton of bubbles that had little contest.

The big difference is that the DL came in for a pedestrian day overall against a team that has no OL.

That's a big number for Ross.

He had two +3 events, which usually happen when you get a block, beat it, and create a negative play yourself. He dipped under a guard here to tackle despite being held:

LB #12 to bottom, blitzing

And he got a doom squirrel sack.

LB #12 blitzing to top

I assume those opportunities will be more common if McGrone is out long-term. He had a few blips but was greatly improved.

And these walk-ons are… fine?

Mostly. Shibley looks solid but he does not as yet have that heady walk-on stuff down. I'm pretty sure he missed a stunt call on the long QB draw conversion because Welschof slides outside and nobody loops:

LB #45 on LOS next to #96 NT

Could be Welschof but given the down and distance a stunt is more likely than not. (In other LB news, that's Kalel Mullings blitzing free off the backside and falling down.) He got lost on reverse #2, which was set to be a big play even if Hill was able to track the WR down…

…until the WR fumbled the pitch.

When not being yo-yoed on a reverse or popping up in the wrong spot on a zone, Shibley looked viable. He made this 3-3-5 snap work against a stretch by blitzing, getting some depth on his guy, and forcing it back:

MLB #45 blitzing

And he was able to get to a Pacheco flare screen in OT:

LB #45 running to top

He also racked up a ton of +0.5s—11 in all—for being in the right spot and helping hold plays down.

Reynolds, meanwhile came up hard once or twice. This bubble looks successful but gets called back for holding as Reynolds is up so fast the WR takes it outside his kickout block:

S #27 zipping up from offscreen

He also popped up on the edge on Pacheco twice. He got obliterated both times but got the job done.

S #27 filling on edge

You don't see as much of him because he's a safety but he did not give up a catch.

Both of these guys get the "But Rutgers" caveats.

Also in surprising but Rutgers performances… Hinton?

Yes. Both DTs were fine, more or less. Hinton turned in the most impressive play of his career to date on a sack:

DT #15 to bottom

He also ripped through the center for immediate pressure that would likely have been doom for Rutgers on their fourth and nine TD:

NT #15

But Michigan rushed just three guys and didn't have a linebacker on cleanup duty so the result is what you see above. Hinton, though: good play.

It would help me if you could provide some examples of other teams doing baffling things.

Sure. While I thought Rutgers's offensive coordinator had a good night—see the various complaints about Michigan's zones being too easy to read—their last gasp in the third OT was a baffling call. It's a pump fake to a flare screen that has two guys in routes:

It's fourth and nine!

The kneel-down in OT1 is the most stupefying thing from this game. This is a close second.

Heroes?

Ross, and the DTs?

Maybe not so heroic?

Hill. The defensive ends are now just guys.

What does it mean for Penn State and the future?

The backup defensive ends are not as good as the All-Americans. #analysis

The defensive tackles were outright encouraging. This is probably a one-off based on the opponent. Gotta start somewhere.

Shibley and Reynolds are potentially viable against non-Rutgers opponents. Shibley's pretty tough and looks like he has decent range; Reynolds didn't have a flaw that showed up on screen.

Hill is still a young player who is developing. Rough, rough outing.

Zone costs are real. In addition to the busts you've got a class of opponent plays that are easy completions for good yardage.