FORMATION NOTES: A fairly radical departure for Michigan, which went with two high safeties for ~80% of the day.

As per usual with radical in-season makeovers, things did not go that well. Man coverage was sprinkled in a lot of zones, instead of vice-versa, and sometimes it felt like third down man coverage was mesh bait as Michigan tried to get Indiana to throw at Dax Hill.

Indiana spent the entire day in a 3-wide gun except for some short yardage snaps with 2 TEs and the occasional pistol.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The starting secondary of Green/Gray/Hawkins/Hill never came off the field. Paige was the only other DB to get snaps; he was the nickelback and was out there maybe a quarter of the time.

Similar story in the LB corps, though each of those guys missed some snaps when Michigan went to dime packages. Shibley got a few snaps in the second quarter.

Hutchinson went out early and Paye got lifted regularly so Upshaw and Vilain both had their most extended playing time to date. Game Newburg and David Ojabo also got in. Ojabo continues to act as a "SAM" but he's a standup end, functionally.

Significant DT rotation with Kemp leading the way; Hinton, Jeter, and Welschof also rotated in, with Welschof's snaps mostly coming on passing downs. VanSumeren got 3-3-5 snaps that were not passing downs. That was ~15.

[After THE JUMP: canyons grand]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Half press two high	Pass	5	Dumpoff	Green	20
This looks like cover two except that Green(-2, cover -2) never comes off his guy and the flat is wide open as a result. Late pressure from McGrone(+0.5) as he IDs the RB chopping hill down on a blitz and gets through to force a throw in reasonable time. Ross gets blindside blocked in a way that’s been a flag so far this year but shouldn’t be, really, and then Hawkins(-1) misses a tackle(-1)
O46	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off two high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Barrett	2
Barrett(+0.5) is able to take on a block and get outside of it; he isn’t in a position to tackle but he widens the WR out; Hawkins(+0.5) moves over on the motion and shoots down to contain this at the sideline; WR goes OOB. RPS +1.
O48	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel over	Off two high	Pass	5	Flare	Barrett	3
Barrett(+1, tackling +1) in the flat zone and gets a form tackle on the catch here.
M49	3	5	Shotgun trips bunch TE	4-2-5	Nickel under SAM	Press two high	Pass	4	Flare	McGrone	6
McGrone(-1, cover -1) threatens blitz and then backs out; he’s in man on the back and reacts slowly. I don’t get it; the back takes off and McGrone sits and waits for two beats. This isn’t complicated.
M43	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Pass	4	Flash screen	Hill	9
M very soft on the edge with two DBs at five yards and then the S at 13 and dropping. Gray(+0.5) does a good job to get off a block and almost gets a tackle in; Barrett(-0.5) cut off by a TE after reading the QB. Hill comes up and tackles, leaking a couple yards after the catch. RPS -1.
M34	2	1	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel over	Off one high	Pass	4	Hitch	Hutchinson	Inc
Hutch(+2, pressure +2) around at eight and will sack without a throw; naturally there is a throw. Green(-1, cover -1) beaten on a comeback route but ball is winged high.
M34	3	1	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Jeter	5
Hutch done for year. Vilain enters. Split zone; trying to kick out Paye but he slides down tight as Hill comes in to be force. Jammed up; Ross(+0.5) sent on a blitz to pick off the LG and is able to jam it up. Jeter(-1) gets shoved sideways by the LT and spins off it, which means he’s got no momentum and catches Scott two yards downfield. Scott grinds out some more.
M29	1	10	Pistol twins	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	McGrone	4
M fortunate that LG doesn’t know who to block; Vilain(+1) is able to extend off the LT and come off that block as LG misses him; McGrone(+1) able to go hit a guy doubling Jeter and get off to tackle. Lot of ground to shut down because 3-3-5 and the tackles are from the side, so YAC.
M25	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	4	Drag	N/A	7
Someone didn’t get a stunt call, it looks like, or Hill(-1) just freelances into a mess. He’s sent off the corner but times it badly so the LT picks him up; as he sees this happening he tries to hop inside the guy, which doesn’t work and gets him in the same gap as McGrone. M has two LBs in the middle of the field; IU has three WRs in a triangle. Two are running mesh; Ross covers one. BVS chips the TE and then goes with him; he’s sitting down. This opens up the other mesh route. Cover -1, RPS -1, this pattern combo beats this zone.
M18	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	4	Waggle corner	Gray	Inc
M covers(+2) almost all of this, with Barrett(+0.5) and McGrone(+0.5) on the two underneath routes. Gray in outside leverage as Hawkins comes over for a bracket and just gets outrun, so now he’s in trail instead of outside a corner route. He’s able to shut that space down and is in decent position and then they get tangled up and fall. Ball is long/wide anyway. +0.5, I guess, window was small.
M18	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Dime over	Off one high	Pass	4	Fade	McGrone	Inc (Pen +5)
3 M players flinch but Vilain(-1) is only one to get in the neutral zone. Free play. McGrone(+2, cover +2) is able to put the TE in the sideline; the ball is inch perfect, over his hand, and caught but OOB and should have been illegal touching if that was relevant—TE stepped out near goal line.
M18	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press one high	Pass	4	Fade	Green	18
Ross(-1) jumps, free play #2. Green(+0.5, cover +1) right in position; he gets his head around and just barely misses the PBU; it looks like he does whack the ball but simultaneous with the WR catching it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide tight	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Hinton	Inc
Hinton(+1, pressure +1) loops around Paye and knocks the ball down. This was going to a two yard hitch, I think.
O20	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	4	Flare	Barrett	3
More man, Barrett(+0.5) moves past an attempted pick route and is in good position; Scott tries to move and stumbles, easy tackle.
O23	3	7	Shotgun trips bunch TE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Pass	5	Out	Gray	Inc
Gray(+2, cover +2) gets to drive on an out from off coverage and gets a PBU. M had tipped a blitz that got picked up (pressure -1) and QB had a bit more time than this.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	McGrone	1
Scott bounces this as the interior holds up. Hinton(+0.5) fights most of the way through a double and Kemp(+0.5) holds up. McGrone(+1) sees the bounce, fends off a block with not much angle, and tackles.
O26	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime over	Half press two high	Pass	4	In	Paige	12
Paye(+2, pressure +2) whips the tackle and will sack on any delay, no delay. McGrone wanders out of the middle on flare duty and since no one else is on the RB that seems right. But also now there are no people in the middle of the field. Paige(-1, cover -1) is supposed to come down on this when the WR breaks inside and is a fraction late; he’s in contact and tackles after the catch but can’t provide a meaningful contest.
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	NIckel over	Off two high	Pass	4	Wheel	Barrett	Inc
Barrett(-2, cover -2) gets beat clean on a no-PA wheel route where he steps to the LOS on the snap and cannot recover on the TE. M fortunate as pass glances off TE’s fingertips. Not -3 as I believe Barrett’s making enough up where he can tackle. But yikes.
O38	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press one high	Pass	5	Fly	Gray	31
M shows one high, immediate deep shot at Gray. This one… not bad actually? Gray(+1, cover +1) is in control of WR’s arm completely and swipes at a pass that’s just beyond him. WR is able to make a juggling circus catch with one arm. Paye(+1, pressure +1) again around quickly for all that it matters.
M31	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	McGrone	2
McGrone(+1) holds his water until late here and then hammers an OL back yards into the backfield; Scott has to cut and trips over his OL’s legs. Hinton(+0.5) got some depth too and is able to come off to swat at Scott’s legs; Ross unblocked over the slot; he comes to finish.
M29	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Off two high	Pass	4	Dumpoff	N/A	5
Upshaw(-1) screws up a stunt; he does not dive inside and bumps into Kemp. Welschof(+1) is able to come around and then spin back inside a T to get reasonable pressure despite the announcer’s statement. M sends two guys at the flat, which is a bust by either Hill or Hawkins. IU’s mesh WRs run into each other, which is obviously not ideal; Penix just dumps it to one of them and gets lucky as the M defenders did not expect two WRs to stop dead and are a little out of position. Cover push due to WTF.
M24	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	3-2-6	Okie	Press one high	Pass	4?	Fly	Gray	24
McGrone(-1) jumps offside and then this pressure(-2) is just broken, with only three guys actually going and various other folks backing out into short zones but then Shibley blitzing way, way late. Free play, punt at Gray, and again he’s beaten, but again this is just… cumong man. Gray lets the WR cross his face in man, which is bad; he makes up the ground well, getting a subtle tug in late to get in close contact, and then he gets his head around and swats at the ball, which he barely misses, and the WR brings in a slightly deflected ball. This isn’t terrible! Push?
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 1 min 1st Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O16	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Vilain	5
Vilain(-2) checks the QB when Barrett has him. He should be firing down on the back unblocked for a minimal gain. Instead a dangerous gap that McGrone(+1) helps shut by rocking a free releasing OL back. RB stumbles on OL, BVS helps clean up. RPS +1, should have been 2 yards.
O21	2	5	Pistol TTE	4-1-6	Nickel even SAM	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Upshaw	-1
Kemp(+1) fires back an OL on a single block to shut off a few gaps, cutback. Upshaw(+2) uses a push-pull to rip by a TE and surges up to TFL.
O20	3	6	Shotgun trips tight bunch	4-1-6	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	4	Drag	Hill	5
Man coverage against a crossing route but it’s Hill(+1, tackling +1), who gets a chuck to start and is able to tackle on the catch short of the sticks. RPS if it’s not this guy but it is.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O12	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Kemp	3
Kemp(+1) again surges upfield to cut off two or three outside gaps; cutback mandatory. Hinton goes straight upfield as this looks like a twist so he gets locked out. Paye(+0.5) flows down the line and tackles; his throwdown actually cedes a yard or two but he’s tackling a load of a back from the side.
O15	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Off one high	Pass	4	Dig	Ross	16
Ross(-2, cover -2) jumps up on a hitch that Hill has covered and opens the middle of the field for a dig. McGrone(-2, cover -2) is also moving up on a hitch that someone else has covered so this is just an acre of space. Hinton(+0.5) gets push and just about deflects this; Kemp(+0.5) gets some depth against a double; Paye(+1, pressure +1) around quickly and again thwarted by Michigan’s coverage.
O31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off one high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Hawkins	-2
It’s like Indiana doesn’t expect the swap here? Jet motion Hill flips to S and Hawkins is running at this from the drop. Vilain(+1) fights outside his block to flow down the line well; Barrett(-1) gets blasted by Scott. Hawkins(+1) flows up well and the WR just runs out of bounds, giving up ~3 yards. RPS +2
O29	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	4-1-6	Dime even	Off two high	Pass	4	Throwaway	Welschof	Inc
Welschof(+2, pressure +2) shoots through two OL as he’s stunting. Paye’s loop gives him a little assist but he’s basically through by the time this happens. QB flushed into Kemp(+1), boots OOB. This is in the pocket and should be grounding, refs -2.
O29	3	12	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime over	Press two high	Pass	4	Post	Kemp	Inc (Pen +10)
Kemp(-1) is the latest M player to jump. Paye(+2, pressure +2) rips through two blockers to get to Penix and forces a throw. This is at Green(-2, cover -2), who commits an obvious holding penalty. He does not let go the whole play. He doesn’t need to do this, he can run. FFS.
O39	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Half press two high	Pass	4	Waggle corner	Upshaw	Inc
Upshaw(+1, pressure +1) is able to redirect on this and get pressure way quicker than Penix expects; he chucks a weird back foot throw that is a million miles off. Hawkins is likely beaten on a good throw, instead he has to reach back behind him to try to make an interception; he can’t.
O39	2	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Paye	-1
Paye(+3) with a solo TFL on which he obliterates the LT in a hot second. Welschof(+0.5) got a little depth on his guy and was in a good spot, for whatever that’s worth.
O38	3	11	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	4	Post	N/A	22
Paye(+2, pressure +2) around at eight and will demolish on any hesitation. There is none; Penix drops this post in a tight window 20 yards downfield. Hawkins and McGrone blast Whop right after he grabs the ball. Tip your cap.
M40	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Half press one high	Pass	4	Hitch	Barrett	Inc
And then Penix just airballs. Barrett in okay position and maybe induces a throw away but this probably should be completed(cover -1); instead Hill is diving for a possible INT.
M40	2	10	Shotgun empty quad bunch	3-3-5	3-3 slide	Press two high	Pass	4	Bubble screen	Gray	5
Not a good situation as M has just two guys in the area against three blockers. Gray(+2) hops upfield, draws the attention of two guys, and then redirects past them. He’s able tackle solo; Barrett(+0.5) also fends off a block to rally. RPS -1.
M35	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime over	Half press two high	Pass	4	???	Paye	Inc
Paye(+1, pressure +1) drives the LT back into the QB, who chucks a random ball off his back foot that’s between 3 WRs. M covered(+2) this totally.
Drive Notes: FG(52), 7-17, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O4	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Vilain	2
Vilain(+1) not optioned as M has overhang LB so he doesn’t have to care about the QB; IU does not block him so he runs down the line and is able to tackle as Scott tries to cut back. RPS +1.
O6	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press two high	Pass	4	Dumpoff	???	9
Kemp(+0.5) is able to drive his guy just about back into Penix and forces a throw, which is a blindingly wide open dumpoff with no M players within eight yards. Guh. Cover -2. One of the LBs at issue here but who I don’t know.
O15	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	McGrone	5
Jeter lunges into his guy and drives him to the backfield but leaves a fair gap behind him as eh does. Still, McGrone(-1) sits and reads this a long time; he’s unblocked and waits; contact is at two yards instead of zero and Scott grinds out YAC.
O20	2	5	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Pass	4	Fade	Green	18
Vilain(-1) is offsides #4. Green(-1, cover -1) in cover two with nothing underneath him; he drops but is shuffling and not going back as far as he could; window. Hawkins(+1) gives the WR the business but a beat after the catch and can’t dislodge. Pressure(-1) not getting through.
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	30 nickel slide	Press two high	Pass	4	Deep out	Gray	35
Gray’s(-2, cover -2) gotten hit in this game but this is the first real bad coverage instance. He’s in outside leverage on a WR and runs off screen; when we come back to him he’s given up leverage and is ~3 yards off the WR on a deep throw. Welschof(+0.5) coming through to threaten a little late.
M27	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime even	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Zone read keep	Hawkins	3
Keeper; M way overcommits to the back but Hawkins(+0.5) is there relatively quickly from his S spot. Penix slides down meekly.
M24	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	4-1-6	Nickel even	Press two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Upshaw	10
Split zone against man from M sucks viper to backside as TE gets a hit. Leaves M in tough spot if someone screws up. Upshaw(-2) screws up. He swims past the LT directly into Kemp and gives up the corner. Hawkins(+0.5, tackling +1) is the next guy and he’s a deep centerfield S. McGrone(+0.5) had shot a gap and was probably going to deal with this if the edge got set.
M14	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	4	Quick post	Hill	Inc
Near jump from Jeter is borderline but doesn’t get called. Paye(+1, pressure +1) around at 9-10 and gets a hit on Penix as he sets up deep and fires; Hill(+2, cover +2) in the back pocket and PBUs.
M14	2	10	Shotgun trips bunch TE	4-2-5	Base 3-4	Press one high	Pass	4	Drag	Gray	9
Mesh. Gray outside leverage, two WRs and DBs to cut through trash to get there, no chance. Cover -1, RPS -1. Jeter(+1, pressure +1) puts an OL in Penix’s lap and it doesn’t matter because first read is always right.
M5	3	1	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press zero	Run	N/A	Split zone	Hill	2
M just too far from the LOS. Paye(+1) dives inside and shoves his guy back into the TE split block but Hill starts from too far back to stop the burly Scott from falling forward. This is the five. Go get it. RPS -1.
M3	1	G	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press zero	Run	N/A	Split zone	Paye	2
Paye(-1) gets shocked back on this one; Kemp(+0.5) able to drive a bit and get off to tackle but that little pocket is enough for a critical couple yards.
M1	2	G	Pistol 3-wide	Goal line	Goal line	Press zero	Pass	4	PA flat	BVS	1
Tempo, PA, quick toss to flat. I’m not going to get on BVS about this, it’s the one and they have Scott.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-24, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Half press one high	Pass	4	Post	Hawkins	Inc (Pen +15)
Fake to flat off orbit motion and IU goes deep off it. Hawkins steps to the flat and then recovers to the post. He’s in decent position, and then he commits PI like two feet away from the official. Maybe he’s beat; he has zero faith he can keep up. He's right there! Hawkins -2, cover -2.
O40	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	4	Out	Gray	Inc
Paye(+0.5) zips inside and T is 100% focused on him; Hinton(+0.5, pressure +1) loops around efficiently. Penix gets it out; out is well OOB. Gray(+1, cover +1) is able to convert from outside leverage to drive on this and is going to provide close to no window.
O40	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	30 nickel slide	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Paye	3
Traditional 3-3-5 with radically shifted line that gets a check from the offense to run at the LBs and nothing. Paye(+2) is somehow able to rescue this; he shoves the C, C seems to leave early for the other DT, and then Paye comes around the guard. He tackles. Otherwise this is 6-8 easy. RPS -1.
O43	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	4-1-6	Nickel over	Press two high	Pass	4	Drag	Hill	7
More mesh at man; this one is weird as the other mesh guy, the TE, falls over. WR slows to avoid this and Hill(-1, tackling -1) slows up too; he’s able to recover and get there but misses the tackle; first down. Paye(+1, pressure +1) again around at eight.
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel under	Half press two high	Pass	N/A	Flash screen	Green	0
Green(+1) is able to beat the WR’s block and get to the target in the backfield; can’t tackle but delays, allowing Hill to rally.
50	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ojabo	4
M stunts this and is looping Welschof over two gaps; Welschof gets held, no call, refs -1. Without that gap fill this looks a little dangerous but Ojabo(+0.5) and Kemp(+0.5) are both able to fend off lbocks and shed into the gap. Welschof does arrive and all three guys tackle.
M46	3	6	Shotgun empty TE	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off one high	Pass	4	Fly	N/A	Inc
Miscommunication as Whop runs a hitch and Penix throws a fly. Hawkins gets what looks like a ludicrous PI flag even if the ball is in the area, they pick it up because it isn’t.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-24, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel over	Press two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Barrett	16
Penix just drifting away from Paye(+1, pressure +1) now since he’s beating this tackle virtually every time. First read right as Barrett(-2, cover -2) loses contact with the TE on a hitch at the sticks; probably had the near miss in the first half in his head. Barrett cannot tackle on a high throw that forces a leap; Hill has to clean up for him.
O41	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime even	Press two high	Pass	4	Throwaway	Kemp	Inc
Pressure(-2) stifled this time; Penix has a lot of time but coverage(+2) is good all around. Kemp comes through late and Penix puts it in the sideline.
O41	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	3-3 slide	Off two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Gray	10
Gray(-1, cover -1) hops up on a flare by the RB and opens up TE for an easy first down. This is a four yard throw, he can cover the TE and also shut down the flare. Pressure(-1) not coming this time.
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Pass	4	Throwaway	Barrett	Inc
M actually gets a guy through clean as Barret(+1, pressure +2) times up a run that gets him through without tipping the tackle; Vilain(+0.5) drives inside well to draw attention. Penix senses this somehow and flings it at a flare; he’s not really trying to complete this but it allows him to dump the ball without getting a call. RPS +1.
M49	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-1-6	Dime even	Off two high	Pass	N/A	Scramble	N/A	0
Both IU receivers think they’re getting a screen. Penix aborts and gets what he can.
M49	3	10	Shotgun trips TE	4-1-6	Dime even SAM	Off two high	Pass	4	Deep out	Gray	Inc (Pen +15)
I mean. Paye(+1) and Welschof(+1, pressure +3) zip through both halves of a stunt. Kemp(+1) surges up the edge and hits on the throw. Throw is at a WR but way high. Gray(-3, cover -3) blatantly interferes with a guy in a panic to go from punt to scoring range. FFS.
M33	1	10	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	4-3 under	Press two high	Pass	4	Fly	Green	Inc
Pocket clean(pressure -2) as M shifts its line way away from run strength; Penix steps up and fires a fly route that Green(+2, cover +2) is running for the WR; WR has to break this up or it’s an INT.
M33	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	Exotic	Half press one high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Welschof	5
Welschof(-1) gets washed down the line too far and opens up a gap. Hinton(+1) surged through a DT and Scott bounces off his OL as he tries to cut back. Hawkins(-1) gets drafted as a LB here and shades backside but overruns his spot and has to recover to tackle from the side.
M28	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	Dime even	Off two high	Pass	3	TE delay	Barrett	5
This blitz gets McGrone through clean but the play here is a little delay to the TE, who fakes a block and releases; he catches the ball at the LOS and plows forward to convert; M dropped out Hinton but he’s not in the right spot to prevent this, barely. Barrett(+0.5) comes up quickly to hit this down, too. I’m considering this a screen with IU deliberately clearing out the lane and not filing this as pressure. I’m not going to RPS a five yard play that barely made the sticks but this is a clever little play.
M23	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off two high	Pass	4	Scramble	Vilain	1 (Pen -10)
Newburg(+1) draws a hold trying to get around the corner; Vilain(+2) bulls the RT back and comes under him, drawing a second OL and still nearly sacking; Penix flushes. Kemp tries to tackle him after pushing the pocket closed a bit and gets held, which is also flagged. Pressure +2.
M33	1	20	Shotgun empty	4-2-5	Dime even	Off two high	Pass	5	Post	Barrett	32
Barrett(-2, cover -2) is sucking up on a three yard drag route on first and twenty, leaving this post wide open. Hawkins(-2, cover -2) is nowhere near this either, unable to tackle on the catch 20 yards downfield.
M1	1	G	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Run	N/A	Split zone	N/A	1
M twists the DTs and opens up a gap; one of the LBs is definitely wrong here because they’re both in the same spot.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-31, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O18	1	10	Shotgun quads inner bunch	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Off two high	Pass	N/A	Bubble screen	N/A	11
Six guys in the box and just two anywhere near the four IU guys to the field, easy bubble is easy, Also they blitz the slot and send BVS out over it so the one guy anywhere near this bunch has a terrible angle to try to get to this. RPS -2.
O29	1	10	Pistol offset	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Pass	4	Fly	Green	Inc (Pen -14)
PA; some time but Kemp(+1, pressure +1) able to come through and dive at Penix’s feet, which may cause this ball to sail long. Green(+1, cover +1) in WR’s pocket, and WR is grabbing him the whole play; they throw the OPI.
O15	1	24	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	4-3 over	Off two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Upshaw	12
Upshaw(-2) is not a DT and gets blown out by a double so that the LB level can’t pursue; chunk. RPS -1, I know this is first and 24 but this is a bad result on this D&D.
O27	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	30 nickel slide	Press two high	Pass	4	Drag	Hill	8
Paye out and pressure is falling off badly. None here(-2); ton of time but coverage(+2) good; Man coverage on the drag is Hill(+1, cover +1), who contests on the catch and tackles immediately.
O35	3	4	Shotgun quads inner bunch	4-2-5	Dime even	Half press one high	Pass	4	Drag	Paye	Inc
Paye back; Welschof(+1) and Paye(+1, pressure +2) again blow through the line on a stunt. Penix retreats and turfs an attempted mesh drag. McGrone(+1) hits one mesh guy into the other one so they break stride and it looks like Hawkins(+0.5) has this if caught; RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-31, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Off two high	Pass	4	Post	Upshaw	Inc
Pressure(+1) around the corner from Upshaw(+1) as he’s able to grab at Penix as he throws; Jeter(+1) also contributes here as he bulls his man back into Penix. Resulting throw is vastly off; Hill is settling under it to catch the punt when Hawkins bats it away. FFS.
O25	2	10	Shotgun empty TE	4-2-5	Dime over	Off one high	Pass	4	Hitch	Hill	Inc
Pocket clean(Pressure -2); Hill(-1, cover -1) oddly passive as his guy stops; he’s open, but Penix just puts it in the turf.
O25	3	10	Shotgun trips bunch TE	4-1-6	Nickel even SAM	Off two high	Pass	4	Out	Green	Inc
Hard to tell who this is to as it’s in between two out routes; Hill(+1) and Green(+1) are in back pockets of both WRs(cover +2) and this is going to be a tight fit if ball is accurate. Pressure -1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-31, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	Nickel even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ross	15
Jeter gets doubled and turned in a bit, which is an issue because there’s a big gap between him and a wide split for Upshaw. Ross(-3) wanders to the other side of the line? Next to Barrett? Jeter(+0.5) doesn’t actually play this badly, he mostly holds up and comes through late but there’s no one for this gap on the LB level.
M14	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	4
Jeter(-2) gets blown way too far down the line by a double; Vilain(+1) knocked over the TE and will shut this down for little if he can just get a little help. McGrone(+0.5) able to scrape back and find this.
M10	2	6	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Vilain	4
TE motions in to run split zone; Vilain(-2) does not set an edge. Barrett(+1) takes on a block and is able to extend to the edge to hold this down after it breaks outside. Jeter(+1) burrowed through the middle and without this bounce this was going to be little.
M6	3	2	Shotgun 2TE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press zero	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Hawkins	1
This ends up cutting back outside the IU TE; Hawkins(+1, tackling) is charging and submarines the RB about at the LOS; RB can fall forward. No help, and McGrone is wandering away to the backside of the play as M looks unbalanced, but this sets up a fourth and short.
M5	4	1	Shotgun 2TE	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Run	N/A	Duo	Kemp	2
Kemp(-1) gets ejected by a double and Scott runs right down his back.
M3	1	G	Pistol 2TE	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Upshaw	1
Upshaw(+0.5) gets very vertical here in a way that would be a problem away from the goal line since he gets reached but he does bend the back so he can’t go directly vertical himself and that means Hawkins(+0.5) has an extra beat to tackle for minimal gain.
M2	2	G	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Pass	6	Throwaway	Gray	Inc
Pure man coverage on which Gray just stops running on a flare route, expecting someone will switch. No one does. Gray is now sitting in the middle of crossing routes Penix doesn't have time to let develop because he’s a got a free run from Hill(+1, pressure +1) and boots it OOB. The flat, meanwhile, is wiiiide open.
M2	3	G	Shotgun TTE	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Upshaw	2
This time it’s Upshaw(-1) getting ejected.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-38, 8 min 4th Q. A four minute drill with M down 3 scores is not charted.

I AM DRUNK

It's 10 AM on a weekday?

SPIRITUALLY DRUNK

Fair enough. Let's look at those drives:

I'D RATHER NOT

Ah but so.

• TD drives of 74, 75, 96, 75, and 29 yards
• FG drive of 53 yards
• A 10-play, 20 yard drive that ate the last 5 minutes
• 3 three-and-outs, a first-down-and-out, and a 29-yard drive ending in a punt.

This was bad. Indiana managed to beat Penn State with under 200 yards of regulation offense. They dumped 450+ on Michigan.

NOW I'M ACTUALLY DRUNK

examine the basketball recruiting class

Okay. Okay. Better. So… what?

Michigan did what everyone said they should do and junked the press man, mostly, so they could run a bunch of zones. They did this very badly. Sometimes when you're running zone they drop it in the bucket and you have to tip your hat. Here is a zone tip-your-hat event:

Okay. That's going to happen. This is not what happened on most other chunk plays, because the windows were not tight. You could defenestrate Andre The Giant through most of the windows Michigan provided.

The main problem is that they don't know what they're doing. This was clear on the opening snap, a flat route on which Indiana gains 20 yards.

Sometimes you have defenses where exactly one player is in man coverage; these do not look like the above where there is safety help over the top. Green doesn't fall off his guy and there's 15 of the ~22 yards after the catch.

(One officiating note on this play: there have been three flags on opponents for blindside blocks similar to the one Ross takes on this play. Hopefully the refs have been told to cut that out.)

This was not an isolated incident. Watch both of Michigan's ILBs jump up on hitches someone else has covered on this play:

ILBs #12 and #44

After much deliberation I'm gonna use it here.

This was a close run thing. Here's the entire linebacker level dropping across the Atlantic on second and eight:

All LBs but particularly Ross and McGrone

And here's Barrett sucking up on a TE drag route on first and twenty:

LB #23 to bottom

These are huge gaps that leave guys running wide open.

Is this forgivable because of covid and a sudden realization you can't play man?

Absolutely not. This is a three month fall camp where you apparently didn't teach anyone anything. You got obliterated by Ohio State two years ago and saw your approach last year repeatedly exploited. You need to run zones. You had plenty of time to practice them with experienced players. And Michigan is nowhere near where they need to be.

Revisiting that play from the game column:

I do not think it is a plan to have your zone coverage not deal with mesh, the thing your man coverage cannot deal with. Whether it's a safety not rotating up on the TE, or BVS not leaving the TE, or Gray not committing to blow that guy up I do not know. I do know that there are three IU WRs in the middle of the field and two Michigan defenders, and this is Bad.

Also here's an incomplete pass on which Gray simply stops chasing a flat route and nobody bothers to replace him.

CB #4 to top

Nobody knows what they're doing.

Fire…?

Yeah fine fire everyone. They jumped offsides five times in this game in addition to all the crap above. They can't ID anyone to block. The whole program is suffused with chaos. Salt the earth. Anyway here's a table.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Paye	21	1	20	for all it matters
Hutchinson	2		2	RIP
Kemp	7.5	2	5.5	Consistently wins against single blocks from meh competition
Jeter	3.5	3	0.5	About par for him this year
Hinton	4		4	Not bad.
Welschof	6	1	5	Has serious burst.
Upshaw	4.5	6	-1.5	Some flashes but fair error count.
Ojabo	0.5		0.5
Newburg	1		1	Drew a hold.
Vilain	6.5	6	0.5	Like Upshaw, flashed but also had several errors.
TOTAL	56.5	19	+37.5	Brandon Graham time, but now in a sad way
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Barrett	5.5	7.5	-2	Two cover –2 events.
McGrone	9	5	4	Keeping his head above water without blitzing at all.
Ross	0.5	6	-5.5	Lots of vacated zones.
Solomon				DNP
BVS				DNC
Mullings				DNP
Mohan				DNP
TOTAL	15	18.5	-3.5	Zoooone
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	6	3	3	Missed a tackle but man those drag route covers are nice.
Hawkins	5.5	6	-0.5	Committed a boggling PI
Gray	7	6	1	In the area! Had a PBU! Another boggling PI!
Green	5.5	6	-0.5	Ran a couple routes for WR, boggling PI
Paige		1	-1	Lost leverage three times.
Faustin				DNP
Turner				DNP
TOTAL	24	22	+2	This is somewhat hopeful.
Metrics
Pressure	32	14	+18	A step back without Hutch; still should be good enough.
Coverage	23	35	-12	Why it's not good enough.
Tackling	4	2	2	IU doesn't have slippery guys.
RPS	7	8	-1	RPS doesn't really factor into zone drops that are wrong.

The coverage metric is a holistic "how close were people to targeted WRs" thing and sometimes racks up minuses when individuals do not come in for dings and is where many of Indiana's yards are in this chart. Michigan is coming off a four-year run where the coverage metric was +12, +17, +18. This is a sea change.

It is doubly a sea change because pressure and coverage tend to go hand in hand. A team that gets to the QB a lot is ceding fewer opportunities for the QB to come off reads and poke holes in coverage. To have that gap between the two metrics is a further indictment of the coverage.

And yes, the pressure metric is legit. I beg of you to watch the videos and see that there is pressure that never matters. Here our valiant Paye turns the right tackle into a slab of ham and gets to the quarterback as quickly as humans can. Alas: for naught.

DE #19 to top

This happened despite the facts that 1) they had zero sacks and 2) Michigan has decided to take it easy, man. This gameplan had what must be a record low number of blitzes. Michigan sent more than four guys across the line of scrimmage just six times. They sent four 45 times and three once. This makes complete sense. Indiana's tackles have been a disaster, you have two badass defensive ends who just need you to cover one read one time (ONE TIME)—put guys in coverage.

That equation got severely compromised six snaps in when Aidan Hutchinson was lost for the season, and Paye coming off the field for a number of snaps in a desperate situation makes me think that he is not 100% either. And even so there were a dozen different snaps where Penix was going to eat dirt if he didn't get the ball out on his first read.

Our corner are just the worst, man.

This may sound insane but I am sort of encouraged by the CBs? At least relative to last week? Last week Gray was three yards behind guys making completely uncontested catches. This week felt more like early Jourdan Lewis or Channing Stribling where guys were in position but were barely not acquiring PBUs. This happened on free-play TDs at both Green and Gray. Green:

Gray:

I think both those throws get touched by Michigan CBs. Just not, you know, forcefully. Now: you can say that this isn't good enough. You can say that Gray let a guy across his face with no jam at all and is in catch-up mode the whole play. And you are correct. But also he 1) is in contact, 2) executes the brief, late tug that doesn't draw a flag, and 3) gets beat largely because he doesn't deflect the ball enough.

This kind of coverage is going to be successful often enough that you can live with it. 

Other incidents were less ambiguous, and actually good. A second fade that Fryfogle pulled in was a one-hand circus catch because Gray had control of his other arm:

CB #4 to top

Gray even had a drive-killing PBU:

CB #4 to top

And I still think Green is easily Michigan's better CB and has a shot to be a quality player and potential draftee. He turned in a couple of plays on which he ran the WR's route for him. This fade is closer to an INT than a completion:

CB #22 to top

Later he drew an OPI call because he was running step for step with the WR and the dude was holding him so that he wouldn't surge into a potential INT.

There is an inkling of progress here.

I find this a rather thin gruel.

…I mean yeah. There were a couple other incidents that gave back most or all of the above positivity. None was more frustrating than a third and long on which Michigan's rush forced a duck. Gray whacks the WR in a way that is always getting called:

That's a punt, and instead it turns into a TD drive, on a ball nowhere near the WR. I don't know man. Gonna go walk into the sea for a bit brb.

…

Green had a couple of groan moments related to zone coverage—understandable—but also turned in one of those holding/PI calls where the DB mugs the WR the whole play:

You can get away with that if you do it briefly and then let go. You cannot ride someone like a donkey screaming "LOOK AT ME RIDING THIS DONKEY I BET THIS IS TOTALLY LEGAL aww I should have called Hoeg Law this is not legal".

This is also the point where this PI should be brought up:

You are right there! What are you doing! Dammit, I already used the gif.

So… the linebackers collectively were Not Good?

In addition to the somewhat understandable zone biffs, Michigan's linebackers don't seem to have a grasp on what they should be doing. This goes for all of them.

This early flare route on McGrone is depressingly easy:

LB #44

McGrone watches a guy he's in man coverage on shoot to the sideline and takes two tentative steps before actually chasing him.

Barrett had a similar incident where the tight end bursts out of his stance and runs a wheel. Barrett turns and runs two beats too late:

LB #23 to bottom

He also steps forward on a play without play action.

And this late chunk run makes no sense. Here's the setup:

M shifts to the TE side, so they've got a gap on the other side. Gaps need to be addressed. Sometimes that's by the DL slanting; sometimes it's by linebackers showing up in the gap. Here Jeter eats a double team, nobody releases, and there's 0.0 persons checking this gap:

LB #12 to top

I put that on Ross since he's a linebacker running next to another linebacker and not towards the giant hole in the line.

McGrone exceeded the other guys because he was the most consistent contributor in the run game and had a +2 for making a TE wheel route literally impossible to complete:

Our corners used to do that.

Are we doomed now that Huchinson is out?

Probably. Paye is continuing to prove that he's a high first rounder. This is elite, and it's happening a half-dozen times a game.

But he missed a fair number of second half snaps in a desperate situation and I wonder if he's 100%. Michigan needed both guys to have a prayer; now they're down to one.

Paye's replacements were both up and down. Upshaw gave a guy the old push-pull to wreck a run play:

DE to bottom tucked inside SAM, sorry about the camera angle

Upshaw also came around on that armpunt that Hawkins deflected away from Hill:

DE #91 to top

Jeter chips in there as well by bulling his guy back.

Vilain was able to flush Penix on a couple snaps; this was his best play:

DE #18 to bottom

Indiana OL caveats apply. PSU shredded these guys. They are not good. Also I did not clip various minuses for going in the wrong gap or failing to set an edge.

Who else is being wasted depressingly?

Michigan had three third downs on which Indiana tried to test Dax Hill on crossing routes. They converted one of these when Hill missed a tackle, but that's what it's going to take. He's hard to shake:

S #30 on LOS to top

When tested elsewhere Hill came up with stuff like this:

S #30 interior guy over bunch

He is the truth and is living up to all the things that were promised in the offseason. He changes your defense if you can cover anything else. Michigan can't. They're gonna get shredded all year with two NFL pro bowlers on the defense.

Anyone else emerging?

Welschof displayed some serious get-off on a number of stunts with Paye. Multiple times he was able to shoot the gap between the G and T:

DT #96 to bottom

This is not common. He executed the same "whoah" gap shoot on the walk-into-the-sea Gray PI.

Michigan is clearly trying to shelter him from standard downs because he has a tendency to get blown out. Understandable since he's so raw. He's moving at an impressive rate of speed for a guy his size and could well blow up. Probably next year. So far so good with Rando #1.

Heroes?

Paye. Welschof and Kemp to a much lesser extent.

Maybe not so heroic?

Coaching. Five offsides. No idea what they're doing on zones. Committing ludicrous PI penalties.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and the future?

They run zones like they've barely practiced them. They should get better but it's a matter of months, not weeks, to meaningfully improve.

The cornerbacks seem more salvageable. As predicted, Gray is not going to run three yards behind all opposing WRs. Both guys got hit on coulda-shoulda plays that will be incompletions more often than not if they can just get incrementally better. But also they have to cut out the blindingly obvious PIs.

Paye: Brandon Graham. This now means "All American on doomed defense." Furk.

Decently promising signs from the DTs. I expect they'll get clobbered against Wisconsin to close this brief window of plausibility. Welschof is displaying signs he could be a dude.

Michigan's backup DEs are a massive step down from Hutchinson. Not that you needed a UFR to tell you that.