Ticket Watch Sees Harbaugh Effect
I'm going to try out a new feature on the site where we track the secondary ticket market. I've been coming to games on somebody else's tickets nearly all my life; in fact the last time I paid for my own season tickets was 2001, my last year as a student. Before that my dad and I went with various family friends, and since then I've used just about every method in the world to get into Michigan games. If you find this cheap, especially for someone who's such Wolverine nut he writes about it for a living, remember I write about Michigan for a living.
This hardly qualifies me as an expert, so this feature will lean on data and other experts, including our ticket partners TiqIQ, and you. I want to make this interactive. We'll watch the prices of upcoming games, share tips, and maybe give away some free ones that come by.
THE HARBAUGH EFFECT
Amidst THAT, last year was the easiest in history to get into the Big House. I personally found a free ticket for every home game I could drag myself to (I was at home for Utah and Maryland). Given the amount of seats given away to every local charity, church organization, and student group to pop their heads into Schembechler Hall, if you got your tickets for the price of two Cokes, you probably overpaid. Sites that had to stick to face value couldn't move any.
This is now different. Demand for Michigan football tickets on the secondary market is up an average of $100 per ticket from last year on TiqIQ's site, and it's the same story on Stubhub. Having Michigan State and Ohio State home of course affects that—the Penn State game was the only game that was even at $200 before the bottom fell out of the market after Notre Dame. Anyway last year was a historic, ridiculous low; this year seems about the Carr norm. Harbaugh!
THE NEXT GAME
I pinged the guy from TiqIQ about what's going on with those:
I would say to get them now as the average price for the Utah game has risen by $40 since July 28th from $343 to $385
For me those prices are "I guess I'm not going" level. The "average" price isn't a real price—the low of the market is where they're trading, not the middle—but the rise is real. That's a tiny stadium about to be descended upon by thousands of Harbaughians who want to see his first game.
CURRENT RATES
It's a seller's season right now, with season tickets sold out and individual games already down to one or no seats available by the time it hit the open market. But August is also the "hey, let's plan our trip this year" month, so prices for marquee and even half-interesting games will slowly creep up between now and kickoff. It will take a loss to reset them (it always does).
In a week of tracking prices on TiqIQ (which collates all the smaller markets), Stubhub, and Craigslist (Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit), here's where prices stand, per ticket for two or more seats together:
| Game | Avg Low | Dips | Buy? | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Tix | $900 | $650 | Now | You can turn OSU/MSU around for $500. Hype will build through August. |
| @Utah | $275 | $142 | at dip. | People traveling want to be sure they'll get in, small stadium. |
| Oregon State | $85 | $62 | tossup | If we lose to Utah these will drop to $30. |
| UNLV | $45 | $33 | at game | Hangovers are stronger than the will to see M play a high school team. |
| BYU | $72 | $51 | at dip. | Home game after two wins should be good. |
| @Maryland | $85 | $56 | Now | M fans are going to drive this market way up even if we lose to BYU |
| Northwestern | $80 | - | wait. | See how the season's going. |
| MSU | $194 | $130 | at dip. | Always a hot ticket because in-staee brahs. |
| @Minnesota | $78 | - | wait. | No idea how the Minnesota secondary market works now—last time I went was Metrodome, which had unlimited seats. Help? |
| Rutgers | $43 | $33 | at dip. | Ungh. Every year. |
| @Indiana | $63 | $56 | at game | M fans drive up price, Hoosiers will be in SELL SELL SELL mode by Nov. |
| @Penn State | $145 | $125 | Now | PSU fans on the other hand... |
| Ohio State | $217 | $141 | wait. | If the season's going Harbaugh, this will go up. |
The interesting one has been Oregon State. On one hand it's the first Harbaugh home game, so people are loathe to sell for less than face this far out. On the other hand, it's Oregon State. The market speaks loudly about which teams interest them—UNLV is already below face for any "get me in there" level. Rutgers is right there with UNLV—and we play them every year now!
Once the first game comes the market for the less marketable games is going to drop further, since the people who couldn't sell their season tickets will be getting what they can for OSU. Already Craigslist is filled with people offering "and UNLV!" with some ticket people want.
CHEAP TIP
The least expensive ticket for almost any home game will be found within 10 minutes of kickoff at the corner of Stadium and Main. Other gates and the walk to them have a lot of the same types of "my wife stayed home with the sick one, so you'll be sitting with me and my son" last-second deals. Does not apply for any game selling over face, but that should only be the two rivals this year.
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
Penn State or Michigan should be having a good enough season, and have big enough traveling fanbases, to make two lower bowl, center-end zone seats for $116 each out the door seem tempting as hell.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
This edition is kind of a test balloon for something I'll be running all season like every other week. What else do you want to see?
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Always appreciate a comment from the WLA.
--Ace.
That was Heiko. I'm Adam now.
--Alex
Actually I am you. You are me. We have become one. And each other. And all.
Sincerely yours in football,
Jim Harbaugh's pants
Was I hacked? I think I was hacked.
Brian, what is this scorcery? I command the MGoSpirits to leave!
Hacked you say?
I think he's saying he didn't realize the kind of powers he was dealing with.
you waited 7 years to post that?
TomVH! WTF WTF WTF
August 5th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
TFW THIS STRING OF COMMENTS IS LOW KEY AMAZING
August 5th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
and possibly fake? :(
August 5th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
August 5th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
Can you resurrect Section 1 and have him reply to all my comments agreeing with me? I'll give you 50 dollars if you do it like 5 times.
Whatever happened to Section 1?
Did he get banned for something, or just lose interest after "3 & Out" and Stretchgate played themselves out?
For a while I felt vindicated that he got banned and I didn't, despite my intentionally inflaming every ridiculous situation Section 1 got himself into. But then I decided that I had to be right on the edge of getting banned myself, so now I just live in fear (but not enough fear to stop being obnoxious on a regular basis).
August 18th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^
You were right to feel that way. I tried to bring you with me.
August 18th, 2015 at 10:49 PM ^
You should give Seth $50.
September 8th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^
Well, I've only seen you agree with me twice so far. 3 to go!
Separate chepeast endzone ticks from cheapest sideline tix. Sideline tix are a whole 'nother animal.
I have spent considerable time over the years watching tickets on secondary markets (for various events, not just M football).
The story is the same, almost every single time.
Let's use an example of tickets being released 1 month before the event....
When tickets are immediately released (assuming this is a marketable event), prices shoot through the roof once face values are no longer available. Typically, prices will remain at this highly elevated level for about 1.5 weeks. Over the next week or so, those prices will start to come down, as the demand has diminished to a degree. We're now 2.5 weeks in, and 1.5 weeks out from the event. That 10 days is fun to watch...like tracking a volatile stock in the market:
Typically, days 10 through 8 (out from the event) you will see prices stay relatively the same. However, when you get to seven days out, or the week of the event, all of a sudden the secondary market 'remembers' that the event is that week, and the demand absolutely spikes, causing prices to spike. Tickets remain at those elevated levels (similar to the prices after face values ran out 3 weeks ago, and sometimes even higher) for the next 2-3 days (we are now 4-5 days out from the event). The next two days, sellers start to freak out that they're not going to unload their tickets at these elevated prices, and immediately begin trying to undercut one another. This is prime buying time (if you're forced to buy on the secondary market). Tickets will hit an all-time low for the secondary market, and this will last until the day before the event. On the day before the event, there is another sudden spike (more "oh shit, it's tomorrow!" buyers out there allow for this).
Lastly, the day of, they will fall back down again.
That's just an example for over a month. Take that same chart and you can apply it to almost any different timeframe. It's not 100% the case, but I'd give it at least 88% of the time the chart will follow that path.
FWIW, I just bought my season tix on the secondary market. $660 a ticket, Section 7 Row 56 (first row behind the handicap section, so I have no one in front of me).
Tickets may go "off the charts" as he builds his teams. But, the AD has stated that student tickets and total season tickets were higher in 2012 under Hoke. So, let's not get carried away just yet.
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Heading into 2012 UM was coming off an 11-2 season capped with a victory in the Sugar Bowl. A lot of people were optmistic good times were ahead.
Also, the period of down time hadn't been that long and Brandon hadn't started jerking around the fan base. The lackluster play in 2013 and 2014 combined with what was by then seen as an extended down period and capped with many peoples angst towards Brandon drove a lot of people away.
Re: the Minnesota market. By fantastic coincidence I was looking at the tickets for that game mere minutes before this article posted. One thing you're not checking is face value tickets--most of the tickets for UM-UM face at $70 or more, with a low of $65 in the extreme corner nosebleeds. There's no reason to pay over face when there are good face value tickets available, so it's safe to say that the stubhub market hasn't matured yet.
Last time Michigan came to town I wound up getting a nice discount from the Minnesota Ticket office, for reasons I don't recall (well, the major reason was that Minnesota stunk and nobody wanted to go, but the official promotion escapes me). I doubt that will happen this year, but since there are still seats for sale I would say that "wait" is the safe option. It's possible that Minnie will start strong and drive up excitement, but as of now the only two games they're limiting single game sales to is Wisconsin and Nebraska, a good sign that they don't have high expectations for demand for the Michigan game.
My hope is that a couple of Minnesota losses and the Halloween game date will cause some people to look to dump tickets in early October, and that I'll be able to pick up a pair for $50 or so. But we'll see. If the game sells out early (particularly if there's a TCU upset) things might get expensive, but I don't see that as likely.
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There are four primo games on the Minnesota home schedule. The opener against TCU, and then Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa tickets at TCF are always at a premium because those teams travel so well and have many grads in the Twin Cities. Nebraska and Wisconsin tickets are very expensive this year.
Michigan is third-highest in price, but I don't think the market isn't going to escalate that much for an independent reason. That game is at night on Halloween. I dare say two things will keep the prices near where they are now: (1) trick or treating will lower the pool of folks (namely, families with young families and disposable income) looking to buy into the game; and (2) students might flood the ticket market by going to Halloween parties instead of the game.
Michigan has occasionally been a huge game for Minnesota, but that has always been at least in part because Michigan has traditionally been a power. The oft-remembered 2003 game is a good example of this--we were their ticket to "legitimacy." This year Michigan is not the big boy on the block. Wisconsin is a far, far larger game.
And let's not pretend that Minneapolis will suddenly become a college football town. I expect attendance to be up, but even when the team was winning last season ticket sales weren't setting the world on fire. The huge game against Ohio State, for example, did not out. I don't think it's that likely that the Michigan game will sell out, either.
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August 5th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
During the September - November time of year, Gopher football has a lot to compete with:
- the Vikings
- the Wild
- Gopher hockey
- high school hockey
- youth hockey
The Gophers are probably 4th or 5th on the sports "priority" list even when they're a good team.
as someone who recently moved to Minneapolis for work, it's going to be hard to drive the price up enough for me to not want to represent
August 4th, 2015 at 10:35 PM ^
The Axe and the Pig are infinitely more important than the Jug for Gopher fans, because of the rivalry with those schools and their fans, and because they've only won the Jug about 4 times in the last 40 years.
My response is jon falk but it's on loan
I'm going to try to hit up the secondary market and catch a game this year. I know folks in town so I don't need to worry about a hotel room.
Everyone was dying to know about your specific personal situation.
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last year was the easiest in history to get into the Big House.Since the Stanford game on September 20, 1975.
From my methodology. I've been checking on the prices daily and keeping a running average of the lowest prices. The "dip" is the lowest price I saw over that time. These are all over a week.
If you're buying at the dip (I don't know what they call it in stock markets because I grew up in a commodities home) you watch the price for awhile and when you see someone offer one substantially lower than the going rate you jump on it. This happens because people of differing personalities get into the market. There are people trying to make a buck, and then there's a bunch of people who don't want to set it at the bottom but use the current market to set their price. And then every so often there's someone who's like "okay I'll just make mine 3% lower than the lowest" because he/she's impatient and just wants to sell the damn thing.
However these will move so fast they're impossible to get in a high-volume market. So sometimes the best thing to do is just go in there and buy your dang ticket at the current market price because tomorrow it'll be higher, and by the time the next dip comes along it might not dip to the market price now.
One request - add in face value, or average face value, so we have a comparison point when you discuss "selling below face". Otherwise, I like this feature.
I also live in DC and price of the ticket has an effect on me year to year in deciding which game(s) to attend.
Should I go to UNLV and another mid-level Big Ten game? Or should I splurge on The Game? I still have to pay for hotels, air travel, food (aka drinks), etc. and take off work if I want to enjoy Friday night.
Maybe that hypothetical/real scenario helps bring you back from being bummed out? I'm always rooting for Michigan, but sometimes I decide I'm rooting for us from the couch rather than making the trek out to Ann Arbor. This post does a ton of work for us that have to take these factors into account.
August 5th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
I'm for us, that's why I decided not to go to games. If we would have continued to pack the stadium like nothing was wrong that's exactly what some people would have thought. You should be happy that people wised up and stopped paying to watch bad football.
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