9/25/2021 – Michigan 38, Wisconsin 17 – 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten

There is another feeling related to the grim gray grimness discussed in last week's column after the second half of the Rutgers game was not good. It is being on the other side of that, watching some yahoo in the other team's uniform with his helmet on wrong attempting to do a complicated thing while 270-pound men try to sit on him. When he fixes his helmet one of his thigh pads falls off.That sort of thing.

Usually he's been pressed into duty by injury or, in extreme cases, a mid-game resignation letter pinned onto the center. Usually he has an implausible name and instead of career stats they just put up the grimace emoji. Usually he hands off until it is third and long and then the adventure begins.

So what you need to know about "Chase Wolf" is this: he threw one interception on eight attempts and this significantly lowered his career interception rate. Once Graham Mertz exited the game it was a matter of naming the final score. There's a pleasant feeling of relief when the opposition is on offense and things are very, very dull.

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Getting there, though: that was interesting. The play on which Mertz gave up the ghost was a slot blitz from Dax Hill. Michigan waited until the snap was imminent, then fired back a safety and rotated another one down.

Mertz seemed to think he had a hot route in the area that RJ Moten had vacated, but David Ojabo had dropped off the line and was standing with the TE; he hesitated and then got buried.

This blitz is not alien to college football, or even Michigan—Greg Mattison liked doing things like this—but it does stand up as the clearest indicator that this defense is not the defense Don Brown wanted to run. Opposing quarterbacks have talked about how difficult it was to predict what Michigan was doing on any particular snap. Rocky Lombardi in fact made a direct comparison to the previous season, when it was not at all difficult to predict what was about to happen.

Opposing coaches and color guys have said things like "this team is built to beat Ohio State"—not to say that they will, but that they aren't going to roll into The Game expecting that they're going to win by manning up Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. If we do get a competitive outing* it'll be on the backs of plays like the above, where Michigan sends a couple of guys through unblocked and the quarterback doesn't know what he's supposed to do.

Confusion is dual-edged blade. If you can apply it, you win downs. But trying to do so inevitably exposes your own team to risk. Whenever someone is struggling we hear about the coaches "simplifying things" (in fact heard it in this game about Mertz). We have not heard that about the Michigan defense, in a transition year, running a bunch of stuff that other teams think is pretty hard to figure out.

Michigan has in fact been remarkably impervious to busts. Implausibly so, even. They've given up a total of 4 plays of 30 or more yards, and a couple of them have been in garbage time. That's tied for fourth nationally with, like, Alabama. They're also tied with Alabama in 20+ yard plays. As we approach the halfway point of the season it's probably time to start believing that this defense is in the right spot almost all the time and importing guys from the Ravens might have been a pretty good idea.

We gloried in Michigan's gaudy fancystats rankings under Brown until Michigan entered The Game with the top defense in the country and got completely shredded. Michigan's D is up to 8th in SP+ despite not having overwhelming talent, and we don't know that their WRs are going to simply outrun Michigan's secondary en route.

We merely supect. Progress!

*[This outlet is not allowing anyone to approach the football. Do not approach the football yet. Lucy is still holding it, and she is a wily beast indeed.]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

this is not the same picture that was in this spot last week [Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Aidan Hutchinson. No sacks, somehow, but absolutely rampant all the same. Drew a holding call when two different guys gave up and decided to tackle him. Flushed Mertz into various sacks not credited to him. PFF's national defensive player of the week, and yeah.

#2 David Ojabo. 2.5 sacks and another forced fumble as he teleported around Wisconsin's admittedly iffy tackles. Also dropped into the hot route on the Mertz-breaking play detailed above.

#3 Roman Wilson. Breakout game for him with six catches, including a deep, contested one on an armpunt. Popped open a ton; could have had a seventh catch if he didn't accidentally step out of bounds before acting as a safety blanket.

Honorable mention: Cade McNamara hit enough throws, including the flea-flicker, to make this comfortable despite some wobbles. Cornelius Johnson got the easy one but also came down with a tough fade for a second touchdown. Dax Hill had a sack and an INT and wasn't too much at fault on the quick TD drive. Brad Robbins averaged 45 yards a kick despite some pooches, allowed zero returns, and used the power of his mind to induce a Wisconsin muff dorf. Jake Moody was 3/3 on FGs and also offered no returns.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

22: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc)
16: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU)
11: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU)
7: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers), Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU),
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

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Flea flicker so pretty they should have run it again.

Honorable mention: Dax intercepts; Ojabo forces a fumble; Wisconsin's pass pro is overrun; McCarthy bombs it to Baldwin again.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Wisconsin's quick strike x2 drive to turn 13-3 into 13-10 at halftime was unbelievable and maddening right before a 20 minute period where nothing else happened.

Honorable mention: Michigan has to settle for 3 after the muff; M gets stuffed on fourth down on their first drive.

[After THE JUMP: war. war never changes. oh wait i mean QB debate never changes]

OFFENSE

shame about the wheel [Fuller]

Eye of the beholder. Seth and I had some disagreement about Cade McNamara's performance on the podcast, particularly the first couple drives. I was more skeptical of McNamara; he was more skeptical of the wide receivers. I do agree with Joel Klatt that the pass behind Baldwin late in the first half was more on Baldwin, who was running a crossing route against zone coverage and should sit down before his route takes him into the linebacker.

Other McNamara misses just seemed like misses to me. He was frequently behind his receivers on slants and the like, and those plays should be run such that your guy doesn't have to break stride and can maybe pick up yards after the catch. The wheel route to Donovan Edwards was almost miraculously placed: if that gets out fast and flat or if it's lofted downfield there's little the safety can do, but the ball was in about the only location that gave the guy an opportunity to make a play on the ball.

On the other hand, when Michigan dialed up the flea-flicker McNamara made that look dead simple…

…and he had a couple other lovely touch passes. The deep ball is real.

Overall: 17/28, 7 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INTs looks solid against a good defense. We got more data in this game than we did in the previous four combined, I think, and it was… acceptable? Decent? Solid? Pick your middling-to-good descriptor.

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Contested means it's contested. Saw some debate on the internet about whether the wide receivers needed to come down with more passes than they did. I am team "no." Johnson snagged the touchdown above on a fade that was a little short and inside, taking contact. Other downfield opportunities were more like this:

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There were opportunities to turn behind and make catches early in the game but those are tough and were probably borderline 1/2s in UFR charting. Hypothetically they could have done better; realistically I think between the Wilson contested catch and a lack of true drops they did well for themselves.

I miss fullbacks. Michigan got repeatedly stuffed on short yardage in this game in a way that made me pine for the Ben Masons of the world. Michigan ran short yardage split zone a ton and Wisconsin got them a few times by slanting a DE/LB under a tackle, which consistently delivered a Badger to the backfield.

These are some of my least favorite plays to watch. You've got a guy lined up inside an offensive lineman, slanting away from him, and then everyone wants to dump on the OL chasing a defender into the backfield after being asked for the impossible. It is at times like these that I grunt like Tim Allen and angrily declaim about good old fashioned iso wompin'. Your short yardage plays should be as stupid and unkillable as possible, like zombies that lurch forward two yards at a time, and split zone ain't that.

Anyway I miss the days when third and two was an auto Mason conversion and think college teams should have a fullback.

Blake Corum for fullback? I mean no but also yes?

That was his most Mike Hart But Fast play yet. Grinding out that first down is not a thing that is possible, and yet.

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Daylen Baldwin loves JJ time. Second time McCarthy has hit him for a long touchdown when the game was already decided. Maybe try it in the second quarter once?

DEFENSE

Rampant. Six sacks and somehow none of them were from Aidan Hutchinson. He did draw a holding flag, and this is apparently what it takes:

It is unfortunate that Alex keeps pointing out that various opponents are not too good at football—he had Wisconsin's OT pass pro issues pegged—and that our hype level should be somewhat reduced, but that's more of a reason to pump the brakes on David Ojabo than Hutchinson, who was rampant last year before getting hurt and is now being touted as a top 5 pick many places. PFF called him "the best player in the country" this week.

zip zap zoopity bop [Fuller]

Meanwhile in ends. Ojabo got his pass rush with one move: blasting around the corner and dipping before the OT could get back. That is early Uche stuff, and Ojabo is a bigger guy so it's even more impressive. That was his rep as a recruit, a get-off monster who didn't have a lot of experience, and it'll be interesting to see if he's developed some counters against tackles that can cut him off on the outside. We're a game or two away from serious hype, IMO; it's one thing to win a matchup and another to consistently beat whoever they put across from you.

 

Late first half Ope. Dax Hill got beat a couple times on Wisconsin's last gasp touchdown drive but the thing I'm wondering about is what is Brad Hawkins doing here?

 

Standing flat-footed and not getting any depth in that situation seems extremely strange to me. There's like 20 seconds left in the half, seems like deep centerfield is a spot you want a guy. Transition cost? Or just a playcall that got beat?

Meanwhile in Dax. Do not anger Dax Hill by dropping a dime over his head twice in a row. He will then deposit you on the sidelines and intercept your replacement.

Holding up. Also in "I wish this was regular Wisconsin": Michigan stoned the Badger ground game. Most years this would be cause for a ticket-tape parade. This year Michigan joins a list of other decent-to-good P5 teams who have done the same.

Still, though! Badger RBs combined for 57 yards on 21 carries; I'm pretty sure the previous two games Wisconsin had 57 rushing yards by the end of their first drive. Michigan's hodgepodge collection of DT/DE types looks less hodgepodge as the season wears on. I caught Mike Morris driving a UW OL all the way across the formation; Jess Speight held up against a third-and-short; Jenkins and Jeter continue to rotate in and function decently. Between those guys, Hinton, and Smith there's a lot of bodies even with Whittley missing a second consecutive game.

Continue to ask again later about the cornerbacks. Michigan CBs were barely targeted in this game, for the Nth consecutive game. The two completions to Dike were against Hill, and the only other completions to WRs were three shortish catches that Pryor made. (Wisconsin TEs with catches: 3. Wisconsin WRs with catches: 2.)

Say what you want about Adrian Martinez but he's going to be the stiffest test Michigan's secondary has faced to date.

SPECIAL TEAMS

mind beams [Fuller]

Stay forever specialists. Moody hit a pair of FGs near 50 that featured a slight draw. Creepy and repeatable. Robbins put two punts at the five and had a 49-yarder with no return. COVID-shirt them until they're 80.

As a result. I mentioned that special teams could be decisive and that Michigan looked like they had a big advantage. They were not decisive—game wasn't that close—but the advantage did manifest. This was most notable after Michigan got stuck on their own one. They got a first down, had to punt from the 17, got a three-and-out, and started their next drive at the 40 because Robbins and AJ Henning both did good things.

Henning did something on all three of his returns, averaging 12 yards a pop. He's averaging 15 yards a return(!) so far without breaking one for a touchdown. His long is 36. Something brewing there.

MISCELLANEOUS

Go go go go. Michigan's aggression on fourth down early was appropriate, especially given the game state. As mentioned, I wish they'd have something other than split zone duo for those plays but the decisions were either on point or close enough to neutral that nothing bothered me. If I was in charge the fourth and two right before the muff would have been a go, but given Wisconsin's run D and their offense I think either choice is defensible. Once you got up a couple scores punting was more attractive since this didn't look like a game where Wisconsin was going to drive the field more than once or twice.

Pop up? Why? Wisconsin's quick strike TD drive started on the 37 when Michigan decided to pop the ball up. The downside was immediately apparent. Giving up ~12 yards in that situation turned out to be relevant. This did result in a fumble from the upback, I suppose, but I don't think you can bake that into your decision making process.

I guess Wisconsin's returning a deep kickoff no matter how deep it is at that point, and you did avoid that, and the chances of what happened happening are pretty low. For me the 12 yards there is pretty relevant for a potential late field goal. Verdict: no.

HERE

Best and Worst:

As for UM’s offense, they nearly doubled the total rushing yardage the Badgers had given up all year (112 yards to 69 yards) while also throwing for over 250 yards at 60% completion percentage and 3 TDs, by far the best performance any team has had against Wisconsin in the air.  So on one hand, empirically this was a great performance against maybe the best non-Alabama/Georgia defense in the country.  On the other hand … it had it’s moments.  Michigan’s long run on the day was a mere 8 yards, with Haskins and Corum never getting into much of a rhythm between the tackles or breaking anything at the edges.

Saturday Psycho:

No 1: Finally this year the roster has matured, 49% of the roster are upperclassmen; including seven super seniors: starting MLB, starting Safety, starting C, starting LT, 5th OLmen, 3rd TE, 3rd DT and punter. . And even though there are only 11 seniors left from the 2018 class, nine of them are starters! Keep in mind none of theses players would have been blamed for leaving the program in the last year after a 2-4 season and a coach's hot seat, but they decided to stay.

State of our Open Threads:

There was a slight increase in shits given as well - 12 more than last week's 76 shits. It has been far more common through the Harbaugh era for stressful games, such as what Wisconsin would have been were it not for their collapsing and dying basically, to cause almost geometric increases in the amount of profanity. Not this time though - the Wisconsin thread was a full 30% longer than the Rutgers thread, and there were only 40 or so more instances of tracked words. We were....on edge, but as we know, winning blunts the potential toxicity of these threads considerably.

"Suck" was stable compared to last week, and as you again might expect, it was concentrated to just before and after halftime, when there was still rather sizeable uncertainty and before Mertz was knocked out of the game.