I wrote a softball update a few weeks back, when Michigan was starting to show some promise offensively, with a few important weekends upcoming. Three weekend series have passed since then, with Michigan continuing to bank wins and stay near the top of the conference as we learn what this young team is made of. It's about time for another softball update and in turn, it's time to give Michigan's baseball team some love as well, after yet another series win in conference play, most recently over the rival Ohio State Buckeyes. Today we'll be accomplishing both, talking about developments in the softball season and the road ahead, before digging into where Michigan Baseball sits with a month to go in the regular season: 

Softball hitters: REAL 

When I wrote about softball last time, I was reporting on the genuinely encouraging developments on offense for the Wolverines that had suddenly materialized, following a moribund first month of the season. At the time I noted that we would gain more information on just what these young hitters were made of over the following couple weeks, with two solid pitching teams upcoming in Northwestern and Iowa. There were reasons to believe the offensive surge was real, but until they faced more deecent pitching staffs, it was difficult to buy in fully. 

So what happened? Michigan has continued to hit pretty well. They didn't bludgeon Northwestern, which no one was expecting against a team with a star ace like Ashley Miller, but after scoring just one in the first game in an abbreviated run rule game, they put up 4 and then 5 on the 'Cats. It was disappointingly not enough to win any of the games due to a pitching meltdown, but from an offensive standpoint, I came away encouraged. Northwestern has only allowed 4+ runs nine times this season in 38 games and two of those were against the Wolverines. That's something. 

Then came Iowa, who had allowed 6+ runs four times all season. Michigan put up 6+ in all three games, seeming to send their pitching into a tailspin that then carried over into a disastrous series against Indiana this past weekend. Michigan put up 11 and 5 in mid-week games against MSU over the past two weeks and then put up 4, 6, and 11 this past weekend against Nebraska. The pitching held up enough to sweep all of those games against Iowa, MSU, and Nebraska. To cap it all off, Michigan went on the road yesterday to Oakland and defeated the Golden Grizzlies for the second time this season, winning by a 9-4 final score.  

I don't believe that Michigan is one of the very best offenses in college softball, but we have enough evidence now that this is a good college offense. More importantly, it is an offense that is miles better than what they put out there in any of the last few seasons. The numbers over the past 29 games speak for themselves: in that span Michigan is hitting a quadruple slash of .324/.419/.558/.977 as a team. Their batting average, OBP, and SLG would all be top 25 in the country if sustained over a full season. Of course, they haven't been facing the most *elite* pitchers in the country during this stretch (mostly conference games against a weak B1G) and thus we wouldn't expect it to be fully sustained over a full season. but I've followed this team a while now. I've watched versions of Michigan over the years, particularly 2022 and 2023, that couldn't hit the ball against anybody. To now have a team that is bludgeoning the merely okay teams on the schedule is a significant development. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: digging deeper into softball + baseball talk]

[Bill Rapai]

The power in particular is real. Michigan has hit 38 home runs in their last 24 games(!) and are now up to 49 homers in 48 games on the season. Even including that first five weeks of the season where they basically didn't hit any bombs, those 49 homers are approaching the most they've hit since Sierra Romero left Michigan. Homers by year: 

• 2024 (active): 49 HRs in 48 games 
• 2023: 25 HRs in 51 games 
• 2022: 36 HRs in 56 games 
• 2021: 40 HRs in 46 games 
• 2019: 56 HRs in 58 games 
• 2018: 44 HRs in 57 games 
• 2017: 54 HRs in 57 games 

Seven away from the most in a season since 2016 and they've got ~10 games before they play a similar number to those 2017/2019 seasons. They've got 7 regular season games left on the schedule + some number of postseason games and if they continue hitting at this pace, they've got a shot to get to 60+. That is incredibly significant, a dramatic turnaround in something that's been a perpetual weakness for the program for basically two presidential terms now. The power surge is driving an offense that's scoring seven runs per game over the past 29 games, but the hitting has been better across the board. More singles, more doubles, more walks, better at-bats. 

The most exciting thing about Michigan's offense right now is that it is a predominantly young offense. Of the regular nine hitters, only one (Keke Tholl) is a senior and when it comes to projecting 2025, seniors would still have a COVID shirt remaining (2020-21 was their freshman year). So it is theoretically possible Michigan could roll these same nine hitters into next season. Even if they were to lose one, having a bunch of good young hitters is exciting because A) you expect them to continue to improve over their careers and B) they are forming an actual nucleus that could grow into a WCWS caliber offense, something Michigan has lacked for years. 

[Jamie Crawford/UMich Athletics]

The best hitter right now is probably 1B Keke Tholl, who has hit a team-leading 13 bombs as the senior star. But junior OF Ellie Sieler and sophomore 3B Maddie Erickson both have OPS clips over 1.000 and have hit 5+ HRs each. Freshman DP Ava Costales has been a rather recent addition to the lineup but looks like one of the team's best hitters as well, with a sizzling 1.109 OPS. She's walked more than she's struck out and her prowess as a star weightlifter in high school has unsurprisingly translated to immense power, already swatting 6 HRs in only 60 ABs (including Friday's walk-off). 

Those four are the meat of the order, but the freshman class has formed quality support as well. OF Jenisa Conway has been a little colder as of late but still boasts a .904 OPS and has hit 8 HRs. RS Fr. C Lilly Vallimont is a solid hitter, .759 OPS to this point with 4 HRs. And the most recent hitter to come on line is OF Ella Stephenson, who was completely impotent for the first half of the season but starting with the Indiana series over Easter weekend, has erupted with a vengeance at the plate. She's 24 for her last 56 at the plate, with a 1.155 OPS in that span. Sunday was a banner day for Stephenson, with two triples and a homer to help Michigan sweep Nebraska, earning her B1G Freshman of the Week for the third time in four weeks. 

In total, that's seven hitters who are all some degree of quality right now. There are two lighter hitters in the lineup, the middle infield combo of Ella McVey and Indiana Langford, but they are the table setters for the bigger hitters. Altogether, the stats across the full season indicate this is clearly Michigan's best offense since 2019 and the way they've played since early March is a level of consistent, power-driven offensive success not seen in even longer. It's not completely perfect, Michigan is not an exceptional offensive team yet, but the amount of progress they've made at the plate this season is remarkable, especially given how poor the team was in that area early in the year. It's also why Michigan has reclaimed a shot at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. 

Pics from softball clashes with PSU past [JD Scott]

Softball's Road Ahead 

Michigan's surge in the second half of the season, winning 24 of their last 29 games after starting the season 10-9, has suddenly brought the possibility of an at-large NCAA Tournament berth back into the realm of possibility. The number of games that the Wolverines bled early in the season has left them with a limited margin for error but so far they've done a great job operating within that margin for error. They entered this week at 43rd in RPI (before beating Oakland yesterday), which is squarely on the bubble. Remember that there are 32 at-large spots + 32 autobids and RPI is usually the singular tool to determine who gets the at-large bids. Given that some of those autobids will be from power conferences where the conference tourney winner will be high in RPI, you'd like to be in the top 40 or so to get an at-large bid to the big dance. Michigan is on the cusp. 

The good news is that the schedule leaves them major opportunities to continue to boost their RPI position. This weekend is a big one, the final road series of the season in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are ranked 33rd in RPI, so a strong weekend there could help Michigan climb even further. The Wolverines then close with four home games next week against Notre Dame and Ohio State, two teams not projected to be in the tourney field but both are in the top 65 of RPI, so they're not nobodies. A strong finish over these last seven games could put Michigan firmly into the tourney picture by the time the Big Ten Tournament rolls around. 

A strong finish would also shore up Michigan's position in the B1G and possibly give the a share of the conference title. Standings: 

Michigan sits second in the B1G, a game behind Northwestern. If the two schools tie, Northwestern would get the #1 seed in the BTT by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreak. But even so, getting a share of the regular season title would be a astounding testament to how far this Michigan team has come. It is possible that that scenario comes to pass, as Northwestern closes with Nebraska and Indiana, two solid teams. The idea they could drop 1 or 2 of those games isn't absurd and obviously Michigan has played at a torrid pace against everyone who isn't Northwestern. It's still more likely that the 'Cats win the regular season title outright, but it isn't totally decided and Michigan has a lot to play for. 

Taking at least two out of three from Penn State this weekend would secure a top-two seed in the conference tournament for the Wolverines and cement this season as a much more typical Michigan Softball B1G campaign. After losing 13 and 8 games in conference play the last two seasons, this year has looked more normal. The program finished 1st or 2nd in the B1G every season from 2008 to 2021 and finished top three every year from 1991 to 2021, before finishing 4th and 9th the last two seasons. Locking up a top two seed would be another indicator of the program getting back on track in 2024. 

Practically speaking, if Michigan is able to close the season strong, it would be hard to see the NCAAs keeping them out no matter what happens at the BTT. Their RPI would probably be square on the bubble, but the ability to claim being 1st or (more likely) 2nd in a conference and a hot second-half record would be a very convincing case. If Michigan closes the season strong they'll prove they are clearly one of the two best teams in the B1G regardless of what happened in February and while the B1G is is in the midst of a weak year, it's still likely to get 3-4 bids in the NCAAs. It would be very hard to keep out a clear top two team in the league who is playing at a high level in the most recent months. 

So, everything is in front of the Wolverines. Last year's team crumbled down the stretch, going 1-8 in their final nine B1G regular season games. This year's young squad needs to prove they're different and that starts at Penn State this weekend. The hitting will need to carry over against PSU starter Bridget Nemeth, one of the better pitchers in the B1G this season. And they'll need sharp efforts from the pitching staff, particularly Lauren Derkowski who has been up-and-down the last few weeks. Derkowski's struggles were a big reason why Michigan was unable to come up with a single win in Evanston despite two solid hitting efforts and why they need dramatic comebacks to defeat Iowa a couple weeks ago. She looked better against a decent Nebraska team this past weekend, so Michigan needs that to continue this weekend because Derkowski is their most important pitcher (even if Hannah George has given them some huge relief efforts the last couple weeks). 

[Michael Wyke/AP]

Catching up with baseball 

I haven't written about Michigan Baseball at any point in 2024 and it's about time that changes. The season been's going on long enough for Michigan's roster, awash with new names, to become familiar to me and the team's recent success making them deserving of discussion. As it stands presently, Michigan is still sub-.500 at 20-21 overall, but like softball they have been much better in conference play, heating up as of late. The baseball team accumulated scars and bruises far more than softball did early in the year, at one point sitting 7-15 after losing their first conference game to Penn State. But if you do the math, they're 13-6 in their last 19 and the B1G record is a very solid 10-5. It hasn't necessarily been pretty but they've been making progress. 

From a bird's eye view, Michigan's team statistics do not look pretty. They have a run differential in the red, sitting at -31, and both their hitting and pitching season stats rank towards the bottom of the B1G. But again, it's been a story of improvement and when you look at the sample of simply B1G games, Michigan has a positive run differential of +13, 105 runs scored versus 92 against. They aren't an ideal team but they've started to find enough arms to stitch together weekends where they take 2 of 3 from the opposition in conference play. That's all you really need to make the B1G Tournament in Omaha. 

Through the first 21 games of the season, Michigan's pitching was getting demolished with regularity. They allowed 8+ runs in a game 13 times in the first 21 games of the season, which sources say is too frequent. In the most recent 20 games, Michigan has only allowed that many five times. Improvement! Some games continue to get away from the Wolverines, like the ugly 16-1 defeat against the Buckeyes on Saturday, but cobbling together more consistent pitching efforts has (surprise, surprise) allowed Michigan to win more games.  

[Sydney Hastings-Wilkins]

Heroes in the pitching staff start with Kurt Barr, who has taken on a larger role as a sophomore and is on a heater as of late, three earned runs allowed in the last 25 innings pitched. There's also Jacob Denner, the 5th year player who is one of the only remaining holdovers from the Bakich era. Denner's career in the Maize and Blue has been up and down but it's up as of late, having performed as both a starter and reliver for Michigan this season, with increasingly steady results. Denner played a key relief role in both wins over Ohio State last weekend, which is where he's been used recetly. But Denner also has two quality starts in B1G play to his name, a versatile option that Tracy Smith can call upon. 

Sophomore Mitch Voit is still an important two-way piece for the Wolverines, one of their better hitters and also a key starting pitcher during the weekend series. During the midweek games, it's most recently been Chase Allen, who is another one of the few Bakich holdovers. Allen hasn't had a great season but he's been good enough as of late to give Michigan a chance in those games against (mostly MAC) competition. Beyond these arms, Michigan is in search of guys who can get outs. Freshman Dylan Vigue made nine starts but two of his last three (against Minnesota and Maryland) have been ugly. Junior transfer Will Rogers is also a two-way player like Voit and has had to contribute some on the mound, with mixed effectiveness. Ricky Kidd, Zach Slayden, and Sachem Ramos are all being given opportunities to chip in but the results are also spotty. 

On offense, the veteran bats that Tracy Smith snatched out of the portal have helped lead the Wolverines at the plate, starting with Stephen Hrustich (Northwestern) and Mack Timbrook (Kent State). Those two, plus Voit and freshman Collin Priest, have been the top hitters for Michigan. Rogers, freshman AJ Garcia, another grad transfer Kyle Dernedde (from Oregon State), and junior transfer Cole Caruso (from SC Upstate) make up the most regular hitters in the lineup. Michigan's offense hasn't been overwhelming, but with the pitching starting to turn the corner, decent contributions from the offense have netted the Wolverines more regular wins. 

[Grace Lathi/Michigan Daily]

Over the course of the B1G season, Michigan has played five weekend series and amazingly, they've gone exactly 2-1 in every one. They've faced Penn State, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio State, and have managed to piece together good enough pitching efforts to scrape out a series victory in each. As it stands heading into Michigan's bye week (they bring non-conference Long Beach State to town this weekend), the Wolverines are in a three-way tie for 2nd in the B1G with Nebraska and Purdue, who are both 8-4 (.667 winning percentage = mathematical tie). Illinois is out ahead in the conference at 10-2, while Iowa and Indiana are a notch behind Michigan at 9-6 and 7-5, respectively. 

For a Michigan team that is not going to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large given how poor things went for the first month+ (sub-.500 record overall says enough), this season is really about being relevant in the B1G, making the BTT and giving it a good run in Omaha, and developing younger players as Tracy Smith rebuilds the program. On that front, Michigan is in good position to make the conference tournament. The top eight teams get invited to the event and Michigan currently has a four game lead on ninth in the B1G. There's still a month left to play in the regular season, but that's a decent cushion. 

Michigan has three B1G series left to play after the LBSU bye week, Michigan State (5-7 in conference play), Purdue (8-4), and Indiana (7-5). Certainly not pushover competition and it does skew harder than the schedule that Michigan has played to date. Still, I like Michigan's chances to stay inside that top eight in the conference standings and qualify for the BTT, which overall wouldn't be the worst outcome. On a team that has 19 freshmen out of 38 players on the roster (just 14 upperclassmen!), that's acceptable in my eyes for what is essentially a total rebuild in Ann Arbor. We will check back in on baseball in a few weeks, once we get some more games under the belt and the stretch run comes more into focus.