[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Searchbits: Basketball Team Edition, Continued Comment Count

Brian April 8th, 2024 at 1:08 PM

The ball! Also, the wait. 247's Travis Branham has lodged a crystal ball for Vlad Goldin to Michigan. Meanwhile the final FAU piece dropped, as Alijah Martin entered the portal with a no-contact tag. No balls for him or Johnell Davis yet.

What's the holdup on the other two guys? Well, On3 reports that Davis "plans to go all in with his preparation for the NBA Draft with the majority of his focus, at this point, on that process." If he's able to catch the eyes of NBA guys this time around he might not return to college. Expect an Olivier Nkamhoua timeline here, with a bunch of will-he-or-won't-he. Given the fact that Davis went through the draft process a year ago it seems likely that he's going to hear the same things that led him back to college last year, because he'll make more money in college than the G-League. (RIGHT, EXTREMELY RICH BASKETBALL DONORS?)

Goldin's timeline may be accelerated relative to his teammates because he's a drop-coverage-only center and the NBA generally doesn't like those anymore.

The final pieces, coaching edition. First: the NCAA loosened its rules a couple years back in re: coaches. Now you can have five assistants that coach the team; only three are allowed to recruit off-campus. Generally the #4 and #5 spots have been grad assistant types.

This item may explain some conflicting reports about who May's third assistant is going to be. (Mike Boynton and Akeem Miskdeen are 1 and 2.) Folks started dropping Tennessee assistant Rod Clark's name yesterday, to the point where even the Tennessee side of things was saying there was a lot of buzz. Clark is another guy with a sterling reputation as a recruiter. He's the guy credited with bringing SEC player of the year Dalton Knecht over from Northern Colorado:

“It started with (Rod Clark). He was the first one to hit me up out of the portal. Me and Rod, he knew my JUCO. He had family members and friends that played there so he knew quite a bit about Northeastern, so it was kind of that and just creating a bond right away."

He did cop a two-game suspension for an unknown "compliance issue," but the last guy who did that at Michigan won a national title shortly afterwards sooooooooo…

[After THE JUMP: percentages updated]

On the other hand, On3 is saying that the third assistant is likely to be Kyle Church, May's lead assistant at FAU. I kind of figured this would be the case as well since it would seem like you've got recruiting covered with Boynton and Miskdeen and Church has been with May for the last 11 years in some capacity. (As an assistant at FAU and as director of basketball ops when May was an assistant under Mike White.) Usually the new coach brings along at least one guy who's intimately familiar with how the head coach wants to do things.

Anyway: it could be possible that Clark could be assistant #3 and that Church could be #4. I'm slightly dubious of that because taking a job where you're not recruiting off campus doesn't seem likely to lead to bigger opportunities. OTOH, Michigan can outbid FAU trivially and Church didn't get the head job there. I would prefer the "why not both?" option here because both Clark and Church sound like good ideas, and sniping an assistant away from Tennessee—a top ten Kenpom team three years running—might be even more of a coup than landing Boynton. We'll see if May can make it work.

FWIW, sounds like KT Harrell is coming over in some capacity from FAU; he was director of ops there. Harrell was a star guard at Auburn in 2014.

Door remains open. Terrance Williams lists Michigan and told Sam Kayser that "a return to Michigan is still very much a possibility." Williams was pretty efficient last year; I'm not sure how much to blame him for what was a team-wide defensive meltdown. I'd be open to his return.

Portal, continued. Michigan is on the "in contact" lists of the following players not already mentioned on this site:

  • Oklahoma CG Javian McCollum (109 ORTG on 23% usage in the B12, 50/31/94 shooter). Georgia Tech appears to lead.
  • Tulane PG Kolby King (109 ORTG, 18% usage, 56/37/74, miniscule assist rate).
  • Ohio State CG Roddy Gayle Jr. (106 ORTG on %25 usage, 51/28/83 from floor, got to the line a fair bit, 20 assist rate vs 19 TO rate).
  • USF SG Selton Miguel (104 ORTG on 26% usage, 43/39/80 shooting).

Until there's more to go on than "I have been texted by this school" I'm leaving these guys off the list of targets.

Things have progressed bit further with the following:

  • ND C Carey Booth has a rough top five with Michigan in it. OSU, Illinois, Texas, and Colorado State are the other teams he's mentioning highly. He's planning visits after the dead period ends on the 11th and Michigan is working on receiving one of those
  • Penn PG Clark Slajchert (111 ORTG on 25% usage, 53/40/85 shooting) released a final eight with Michigan on it.

Oklahoma State guard Javon Small (107 ORTG on 25% usage, 50/37/87 shooting) hit the portal but this one seems like a no-go even with the Boynton connection. Small is a true junior who transferred from ECU last year; Michigan admissions is going to obliterate many of his credits unless he somehow manages to get a degree in three years after a transfer. Unlikely, to say the least.

Bronny? Bronny James is in the portal after a freshman year at USC where he was a low-usage bench player shooting 48/27, and Michigan is drawing speculative mention because of Dusty May's status as a Klutch Sports client. If you're asking me I'm not real interested in a guy who doesn't seem very good but you have to play because otherwise Lebron will be displeased. Also, this is wild:

First and foremost, despite having an underwhelming season with USC, heading to the NBA sounds to be the top priority and the likeliest destination.

Would he be drafted if he had any other name? No.

The idea is that some team is going to draft him in an effort to recruit Lebron, who has said it would be a dream to play with his son. (Or rather have his son watch him play from really great courtside seats.) Dude should end up at Duquesne if anyone has a lick of sense. I seriously doubt anything will come of his vague connection to Michigan.

Gettin' horned in on. Yale C Danny Wolf was widely expected to be at Michigan but 247 reports that North Carolina and Northwestern are also hot on his trail and that he is "more open than previously believed." UNC's 247's site is also reporting similar things. Armando Bacot's departure means that UNC has a starting center spot available; Tar Heel fans seem to want someone with more defensive chops.

Extremely speculative percentages updated.

Baseline here. Miskdeen is in.

  • Johnell Davis: 80% –> 70%. Length of time he is likely to extend process due to NBA focus means more NIL pitches to field.
  • Vlad Goldin: steady at 80%.
  • Alijah Martin: 50% –> 70%. In portal with no-contact seems like a good sign.
  • Danny Wolf: 80% –> 60%. Reports that he may take a trip to UNC are a concern.
  • Carey Booth: off the board –> 20%. One of five with no real indication if he's leaning anywhere.
  • Terrance Williams: off the board –> 30%. Still seems unlikely there's a reunion in the offing but if he hears the right stuff from May wouldn't rule it out.
  • Nick Boyd: 50% –> off the board. Did not put Michigan on long list.
  • Khani Rooths: 50% –> 60%. Miskdeen is in and Rooths hasn't really expanded his search.
  • Eric Dailey: 40% –> 20%. Seems like UCLA and others are of more interest to him; no Michigan mention yet.
  • Tarris Reed: 5% –> off the board. Seems likely to pick Kansas State any day now.

Comments

Rickett88

April 8th, 2024 at 1:22 PM ^

"RIGHT, EXTREMELY RICH BASKETBALL DONORS?"

That is MGoBlog now after The Yearbook kickstarter, right?

 

Only kidding... kinda... but maybe not?

I also did buy one, so I did put my money where my mouth was, and I can't wait for it.

CR

April 9th, 2024 at 9:11 AM ^

Erik:

   I watched three Vlad Goldin/FAU games. He/they played occasional drop coverage, but mostly he "showed" in what I would call "flat" or "soft" hedging. Drop coverage was a minority. Indeed, in one game he played drop maybe on 1/2 possessions. He blitzed the screen a couple of times, as often as he dropped.

  I talked to Beilein about this several years ago and he said "there are at least nine ways to defend the 1/5 ball screen." I can't tell you I know what the 9 are, but it is pretty easy to see gradations between blitzing and drop coverage, aside from just switching, which I didn't see much of/any of on the 1/5.

  But Brian's comment gives me some pause. Maybe I saw games that were anomalies or that were team dependent. So, I am going to go back and look more, since I take Brian's prediction (80%) that Goldin comes to UM seriously.

 One thing that impressed me in the games I saw; Goldin was better in defending the ball screen that either Hunter or Tarris. But, no, he is not Jon Teske. When I get the chance I will ask Dusty May about his preferences. [Admission of bias. I hate drop coverage.]

CR

 

  

 

  

CR

April 9th, 2024 at 9:41 AM ^

Just watched 22 minutes of the FAU/FDU game from last year in the NCAAs.

Alas, FDU was not much of a ball screen team. But on the two off ball screens Goldin just switched to a smaller player and did fine. On the one ball screen he soft hedged and then covered the ball handler, and did so quite well.

For the moment, my opinion remains that he is reasonably flexible in these coverages---you don't have to just drop with him because he can't move his feet.

 

dragonchild

April 8th, 2024 at 1:57 PM ^

Small is a true junior who transferred from ECU last year; Michigan admissions is going to obliterate many of his credits unless he somehow manages to get a degree in three years after a transfer.

Obligatory clarification that Admissions doesn't determine credits but we're all well aware of that.  We're just using that as a shorthand because "admissions" is one word and we really don't care about splitting this hair.

bronxblue

April 8th, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^

Yeah, what I've understood tends to get guys is less the total necessary to graduate with a UM degree and more with the school not recognizing enough credits for them to be at the grade level they're supposed to given the number of years they've player collegiates sports.  So for example, if a guy is going to the NBA in a year he might not care about the degree but if he's supposed to be in his third year of college and thus a junior, having only acknowledged credits of an academic sophomore means he's academically ineligible to play that year unless he catches up per the NCAA.  

OuldSod

April 9th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^

I think insufficient degree progress will mostly affect senior transfers. It depends a bit on what degree Jrs would want as it's not just 60 credits at UM, it's so many 300 level and above and within the department of your major. 

The bigger issue, if someone only has 1-2 years of eligibility but it will take 1.5-3 years to get a degree, is there is no scholarship to cover completing school. While some NBA prospects may not care, the majority of people in the portal recognize they need to develop for a cup of coffee in the G-league or a European career. They aren't 17. They've seen teammates not go to the NBA. They aren't going to attend UM with no scholarship to cover tuition through graduation. 

MichiganiaMan

April 8th, 2024 at 4:51 PM ^

Nailed it on Bronny. So many guys his age screw themselves by snubbing legitimate opportunities for development. With three years in college, he could become a viable NBA role player type. Instead he seems poised to rush into a 3-year NBA career full of DNPs.

RobM_24

April 8th, 2024 at 7:08 PM ^

Davis Moseley was on a podcast today (links here). He also tweeted out his version of a Sam Webb "gut feeling" about someone commiting early next week. Sounds like there are visits scheduled as soon as the dead period ends this week, through next week -- with some guys planning to visit at the same time.