Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Rutgers
WHERE	Homesure Lending Stadium Piscataway, NJ
WHEN	3:30 Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –38.5
TELEVISION	BTN
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	sunny, around 40 15 mph wind

Overview

Rutgers is #126 in S&P+. Teams that S&P+ thinks are better than Rutgers include San Jose State, UTEP, Central Michigan, and Kansas. That latter is pretty logical since Rutgers lost to Kansas 55-14. That's the most points Kansas has put up since 2007. Kansas has since fired their coach. For only beating Rutger by 41.

[Hit THE JUMP for A HALF-ASSED PREVIEW. QUARTER-ASSED if we're being REAL]

Run Offense vs Rutgers

[Eric Upchurch]

A miserably bad unit coming off a 7.2 YPC allowed day against Wisconsin—Paul "Turtle" Chryst gave Jonathan Taylor 27 carries, because of course—that has little hope of fitting all of the various gaps Michigan will test. Without bothering to adjust for sacks, Rutgers has given up 7.2 YPC to Maryland, 7.7 to Illinois(!!!), 5.1 to Buffalo(!), 8.3 to Kansas(!!!) and 5.6 to Ohio State. Only Indiana and Northwestern have failed to impose their will.

I feel like I shouldn't validate Seth's choice to spend his time breaking down Rutgers football this week but I am also loathe to spend time doing it myself, so let's quote his FFFF:

The other LB on this play, #8 WLB Tyshon Fogg, is a true sophomore but I don't care if you're a high school sophomore: when your guard pulls you don't bounce the opposite direction. I don't know what their keys are but I'm certain, after three years of this, that Rutger's linebacker coaching is the worst in the conference. …

That was a +2 on a +2/-23 day. His backup, Fogg, was +2/-10, getting a couple positives for hard run action and coming off the field whenever there was a remote possibility of a pass.

He charted a whole game? With a –21 linebacker? And then @-ed his coach? Let's talk time management, people.

Anyway, Michigan will stomp these guys flat and hopefully put nothing new on film unless it's a 20-carry Peter Bush package.

KEY MATCHUP: DON'T GET INJURED vs GETTING INJURED. Don't.

Pass Offense vs Rutgers

[Eric Upchurch]

A relative bright spot, this unit is 75th in S&P+. They don't get to the quarterback at all but they've successfully kept stuff in front of them, mostly, as they attempt to bend their way down the field without breaking. Again let's turn to Seth:

The secondary is again with out 2016 star corner Blessuan Austin but has the poor man's Marlin Jackson CB Isaiah Wharton around, though there's no reason to throw his way. When they lost all three of last year's safety rotation—one a transfer to FIU, one a behavioral dismissal, and their slot-turned-SS to the San Diego Padres—in the offseason I suggested Wharton might move to safety, but Rutgers instead moved the guy who was Austin's quite decent replacement last year, now-SS Damon Hayes. They also got back athletic (once earned a Don Brown offer) FS Saquan Hampton, who was injured last year. Hampton had two picks in this game but isn't a great help in run defense. When they go nickel they bring back that FIU transfer, SS Kiy Hester, who had to cancel his Florida plans because he hadn't graduated. Hester comes in as the safety while Hayes moves down to the slot.

Maaaan Hester must be mad at himself. He could be playing for a better football team in Florida.

This the one spot in which the opposition could provide data other than "lol rutger." They've got a couple of good DBs, they've held opposing teams relatively in check, and Shea Patterson hasn't hit the Rudock booster rockets yet. His 8-10 throws… aw hamburgers. I gave it a shot.

It'll be interesting to see how Brandon Peters has evolved since last year, at least. If he's the backup QB for the OSU game that might be relevant due to the Curse of Ryan Mallett. But please no.

 

KEY MATCHUP: NO.

Run Defense vs Rutgers

This is the good part of the Rutgers offense. It features three guys averaging about 4.3 yards a carry collectively. Raheem Blackshear is a darting guy who's also a slot—think Chris Evans. Jonathan Hilliman, a BC transfer, and typo-on-his-birth-certificate-sufferer Isaih Pacheco are burlier sorts that get the short yardage stuff. Despite their differences in shape the three are near-identical statistically.

Michigan's played two opponents in the same range as Rutgers via S&P+. Northwestern and Michigan State both managed 2.5 yards per carry. MSU is about 30 spots better as a rush outfit; Northwestern is about 30 spots worse. Meanwhile Rutgers has not played anything approximating Michigan's rush defense. Ohio State is 49th now; Rutgers managed 3.6 yards a carry against them.

I set the over/under at 1.9 yards a carry.

KEY MATCHUP: TACKLING vs THE TOTAL RUTGER. Leaking first downs here and there because Blackshear or Hilliman is able to break a tackle or three may rob Rutger of its rutger destiny.

Pass Defense vs Rutgers

[Jannie Malm]

The Cable Subscribers have the worst pass offense in the country, full stop. Erstwhile Michigan target Artur Sitkowski chose… poorly and was immediately inserted into the starting lineup. He's averaging four yards an attempt with a 4-15 TD-INT ratio. Last year's on-and-off starter Giovanni Rescigno has chipped in two INTs of his own whenever Sitkowski just can't even anymore.

Blackshear is the top receiver as well; four star Bo Melton is another slot type. Everyone except TE Jerome Washington averages under ten yards a catch—screens and dinks are the vast majority of the Rutgers passing game.

The one thing the Cable Subscribers have managed to do acceptably is pass protect, but the nature of the offense has a ton to do with that. Instead of hanging in the pocket on passing downs Rutgers just dumps the ball out and hopes something happens. It does not.

This will be an obliteration. Michigan will eat the souls of all who dare to drop back. Great gouts of black fire will carve huge furrows in the turf. Michigan will have to watch out for screens.

KEY MATCHUP: NO.

Special Teams

I'm sure they have some.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if…

• Someone gets injured.
• The rules of time and space suddenly don't apply.
• You get a rash after being in the Rutgers hot tub.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• A third string fullback scores.
• The Total Rutger is in play in the fourth quarter.
• Do we travel four fullbacks?

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Everything About Rutger Football This Year, –1 for Everything About Rutger Generally, –1 for Interception Fiesta!, –1 for Literally The Worst, –1 for 55-14 Loss To A Team That Already Fired Its Coach)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Let's Not Be The Victim Of The Greatest Upset Of All Time Again, +1 for League Game, Smoke, +1 for I Like Enjoying Things Better Than Sifting Through The Rubble Of Broken Dreams, +1 for Smug Delanyface, +1 for That Thing With The Magnets And The Teddy Bear)

Loss will cause me to… cease to exist like the rest of the universe.

Win will cause me to…  continue advocating for the Cable Subscribers' ejection from the Big Ten.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Michigan wins.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Total Rutger.
• This is more performance art than athletic contest.
• Michigan, 79-0