[Eric Upchurch]

Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Nebraska
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –18
TELEVISION	FS1
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	low 60s, partly cloudy 0% chance of rain minimal wind

Overview

I know Nebraska's 0-2 and in a year zero as Scott Frost takes over for a guy who had Nebraska in such a state that the first time anyone on the team touched a weight two guys got rhabdo, but 18 points? If I'd been sipping tea when I read that was the line it would have been spit take city, baby. Apparently I'm alone in this. The line hasn't budged since its release.

And okay yeah Nebraska hasn't been killing it but the Troy loss came without their starting quarterback—Michigan fans do not need to be told how devastating that loss can be—against a team that beat LSU last year and the Cornhuskers outgained Colorado by 150 yards. They ran for 329 yards! What part of that says "easy three score win" to you, Las Vegas?

I mean, Michigan should probably win this game but it's not the 90%+ shot the line says. I feel like I am taking the crazy pills. Unless Adrian Martinez is out. Then, yeah, 18 points. Survey says:

"He's further along," Frost said. "Again, it isn't just 'Is he ready to go?' It's 'Is he ready to go mentally and physically to the point that he can protect himself in the game and make sure he stays healthy?'

"He's really close. We gotta make a final decision."

Why is this game even on the board?

[Hit THE JUMP for BAD RADAR]

Run Offense vs Nebraska

This was Nebraska's defensive radar last year:

Horrible in everything except yards per completion and some related stats, and particularly horrible at everything related to stopping the run. They were the most boring bend-don't-break defense in the country, a veritable Mike Riley avatar:

The former Blackshirts were quite possibly the least disruptive defense in FBS, ranking 130th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), 128th in Adj. Sack Rate, and 129th in overall havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays). They were 128th in rushing success rate and 122nd in passing success rate.

How far can you go in an offseason? Nebraska hopes the answer to that is "very very far" and will point to a 44-yard output by Colorado followed by a middling day for Troy. It probably isn't that far. But when Bob Diaco is exiting and Anyone Else is incoming, maybe it's farther than you'd think.

Nebraska more or less kept Diaco's 3-4 but they've JACKED IT UP on ELECTROLYTES now. They're now far more aggressive, come what may. That's improved them. It hasn't exactly made them good yet.

Nebraska probably should have been a better run defense last year and are starting to live up to their wide array of Big Boys on the interior. Everyone on their DL returns. Projected star Carlos Davis, a 325-pound guy who had an impressive 42 tackles as a 3-4 DE a year ago, is technically a backup now as Nebraska rotates 7 functional players through three spots. Converted SAM Ben Stille is probably their most disruptive player—9.5 TFLs a year ago—and is the only one who's proven he can get through blocking instead of push it in a direction.

The linebacker corps is still finding its way a little but but has some playmakers. Naturally, one of them couldn't even get on the field last year. Seth:

The guy I didn't see coming—or even mention in my HTTV preview—was Mohamed Barry, and I'm not alone. The playmaker missed most of the Troy game for targeting but was +13.5/-3=+10.5 in my unofficial UFRing of the Colorado game, and PFF agreed. In my defense I'm not the only preseason mag who'd never heard of him until the Colorado game. The blips previously were regarding his stance during the national anthem... What I saw is a knife.

Michigan is no stranger to jacked-up blitzball defenses and will probably have some stuff stored up to take advantage of the Cornhusker's aggression. That could lead to another SMU-like day where Michigan's success is largely about how many big plays they can bust amongst a sea of short gains.

Michigan will want to cut down on the weird spate of mental errors that plagued them last week and hope to win the Battle of the Big Boys on the right side of Michigan's line. If JBB and Onwenu can move these guys out they're going to be able to move just about anyone.

Predicting an outcome here is difficult. Colorado had a black hole at two different spots on their OL and Troy is a Sun Belt team. Nebraska's looked a ton better as a result, but like Carlo Kemp for Michigan this game will be an acid test.

KEY MATCHUP: SEAN MCKEON and ZACH GENTRY vs CAVING IN LIGHT OLBS. The edges of the Nebraska defense are populated by guys who top out at 245 and should be relatively easy prey for Michigan's tight ends; that would allow Michigan to largely bypass the big boys.

Pass Offense vs Nebraska

The main reason Nebraska lost to Colorado was this unit, and specifically the bit of the unit tasked with not letting Laviska Shenault go ham.

You'll note that the coverage on those deep shots is pretty good. The ability to make a play on the ball is lacking, and Shenault tended to pop wide open on underneath stuff against Nebraska zone. There is also a fair amount of Shenault being a dude. Michigan's WRs have hinted that they may be dudes as well but nobody's had that kind of breakout game yet—DPJ will have to be covered a little bit before he moves up to the Shenault level.

Nebraska is currently caught between being too predictable with its man coverage, unable to put a true nickel on the field, and not being real good at zone. Seth:

Classmate and boundary CB Lamar Jackson is 6-3 and was a top-100 player as a recruit. His athleticism is apparent in tight man but he still gets lost in any kind of zone. Tackling remains a sore spot. Depth does as well—Nebraska never took the starters off the field, and when #3 corner/true freshman CB Cam Taylor came on the field late he was immediately dusted on a slant that went for big YAC.

Lamar Jackson (not that Lamar Jackson) was one of Nebraska's top recruits of the Riley era, a top-100 cornerback who goes 6'3" and feels a lot like Jeremy Clark. But a true freshman in the slot or zone coverage in a new system might presage a big day for Grant Perry and Zach Gentry.

While the Cornhuskers have ten sacks already, seven of those came against Colorado against blocking that was more hypothetical than actual. Here's Seth having a slight twitter meltdown about it.

THIS IS A TWO-MAN RUSH YOU EAST LANSING POLICE OFFICERS pic.twitter.com/b0yGwCek0R

— Seth M. Fisher (@Misopogon) September 20, 2018

The 3-4 means that Nebraska is not the kind of team who's going to put a Winovich on the field to torment Michigan's OT situation; while the Cornhuskers will send guys off the edge they are always going to be throwing three guys around 300—and not a Rashan Gary 300—across the LOS. Most of the time one of the tackles is going to get one of those guys. Michigan should be able to survive.

KEY MATCHUP: STILL THE OFFENSIVE TACKLES versus A POWER FIVE TEAM. Pretty good pass pro outing against SMU. This is a reasonable but not terrifying step up.

Run Defense vs Nebraska

Nebraska has an OL who's two different colonists!

 

There's little data here since Frost has remade the team into what a Nebraska team should be after a dire period of pocket passers under Mike Riley. Nebraska football should always have a running quarterback. It is written. If his name is Martinez and he's got a wack throwing motion all the better. And lo: freshman QB Adrian Martinez was having a hell of a debut—15/20 passing, 117 yards in 15 carries—when he got knocked out of the Colorado game; he did not return for Troy. This means we've got about three quarters of relevant snaps to evaluate.

Things went reasonably well against Troy, too, with the two main backs combining for 156 yards on 28 carries, but the dropoff to Andrew Bunch was steep. His ten carries went for 5 yards. There are sacks in there, certainly, but I mean. He's not Martinez, and when you lose a guy like that your playbook gets halved.

Michigan got a preview of that playbook a couple years ago when UCF came to the Big House. They weren't able to get much done except for one long touchdown run that saw Mike McCray get edged, but the bifurcated nature of their approach gave me the heebie-jeebies nonetheless. Frost loves plays on which both edges of the field get threatened simultaneously. WRs will tear across the formation to threaten a jet; the QB will take it student body right the other way. That sort of thing. The stress that puts on your safeties to ID the ballcarrier is high, and when plays break they're often big plays because the defense is being asked to shut down a lot of space.

Frost strives to create uncertainty without needing to rep triple option constantly, and he's good at it. Seth:

There were at least TWENTY-FIVE different running plays I charted. The only plays they ran as any kind of base were the Bubble/Inside Zone play (six times) and Zone Read, which had small variations each time. The bubble package also had Duo, Outside Zone, Power, QB Power, QB Power with a tackle pulling, and zone read with a pulling backside TE. There were two zone reads with a pulling guard, one Power Read/Inverted Veer, four regular Power plays, a jet package, two split zones, four triple options…I'm not going to list them all.

Michigan is in a good spot to combat much that, with a three-safety defense, a pair of sideline-to-sideline linebackers, and a couple of the country's most athletic defensive ends. The toughest test will be directly up the middle, where Nebraska returns Tanner Farmer—not only an All Big Ten player but a guy named after two Colonization occupations—and All Big Ten honorable mention Jerald Foster at guard. Michigan responds with a promising junior who has not faced this level of competition and Bryan Mone, a plugger against top-level opposition.

If Martinez is unable to go or limited Michigan should throttle Nebraska. If he's available and able to run all around things could get hairy.

KEY MATCHUP: CARLO KEMP and BRYAN MONE  vs FARMER/FOSTER. If Michigan's DTs can win on the interior against some excellent players that bodes well not only for this game but for the rest of the schedule.

Pass Defense vs Nebraska

This will be a battle of staying in contact. Nebraska's quarterbacks aren't the sort to throw an NFL dart between three guys and have relied on their excellent WR corps to get separation. Stanley Morgan Jr, this year's Brooks Bollinger Memorial Eighth-Year Senior, is back after a 61-catch, 986-yard season; PFF rated him the #5 WR in the Big Ten last year. The only other currently available player in that top five is actually teammate JD Spielman, a wee-but-mighty downfield slot-ish receiver. OSU decommit Tyjon Lindsey, the #50 player in 2017, is another 5'9" guy with quicks.

After last week Nebraska is certain to test Michigan safety coverage repeatedly, insofar as Michigan lets them. This might be a day for a lot of zone defense. Michigan faces a mobile quarterback and a team that loves to test the edge on the ground; they also have the kind of downfield slot threats that Michigan struggled badly against when they were named James Proche last week. Morgan's good but repeated exposures to Hill, Long, and Watson should make his contributions somewhat erratic. The middle of the field will be more of a concern. Let's undercut some slants against a freshman QB, then.

Nebraska's pass protection has been iffy this year. They've given up five sacks and scattered hurries elsewhere, largely because they've only got one tackle. And Michigan will deliver unto them a rush unlike any they have seen thus far. Winovich and Gary are going to get around the corner with some regularity. Whether Michigan can finish those plays off or not is going to be a major swing factor in the game.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DL vs BROKEN POCKETS. The gaps that Brandon Wimbush had against Notre Dame are more likely with a stalwart interior OL and would be extremely damaging as they allow a mobile quarterback to threaten run or pass.

Special Teams

Nebraska lost De'Mornay Pierson-El over the offseason and breaks in new return guys. Lindsey should be a good option but hasn't been able to show anything yet on just three punt return opportunities. Spielman returns as the kick returner. He had a touchdown last year and not much else, as is often the case.

Don't expect much in the way of kickoff returns for Michigan. Nebraska's KO guy has put 70% in the endzone. Punting is another matter. Five of Caleb Lightbourn's eight punts have been returned despite an only-okay 42 yard average. He's giving back 15 yards a return largely thanks to a Troy TD.

Freshman kicker Barrett Pickering is just 2 of 4 on the year.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH OVER THE UPRIGHTS.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if…

• Michigan's linebackers are running really fast in the wrong direction.
• Predictions that Michigan's tackles will survive are optimistic.
• Michigan runs a bunch of man to man that gets shredded by a mobile QB.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Bunch plays a bunch.
• Kemp maintains his level of play.
• Patterson has time in the pocket.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Three-Score Spread, +1 for That Makes No Sense?, +1 for Terrifying Confusion Offense, –1 for Strong Possibility Michigan Faces Walk-on QB For Chunks Of Game, –1 for Y'all Can't Organize A Defense That Fast, +1 for Although Diaco Departure, –1 for Trying To Edge Devin Bush Goooooood Luck)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Okay I Will Admit Some Slight Annoyance With Scott Frost, +1 for I Mean He Did Kill That Kid On Breaking Bad, +1 for Again, The Takes, +1 for It's A League Game, Smoke)

Loss will cause me to… be the "let's break it up" guy in the middle of a Sam Webb/Scott Frost's Mom scrum.

Win will cause me to… same.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Let's just take it as read that Michigan wins comfortably if Martinez can't play or can't play much.

If Michigan does get a fully healthy Martinez this could be hairy. Nebraska is better than its record and has a tricky offense that puts a lot of stress on everyone to get their assignment right every down. Michigan's got a bunch of veterans and shouldn't be particularly susceptible to it... but you never know. They'd face a choice between running a bunch of zone, which is not Don Brown's preferred mode, and trying to man up a mobile QB. That's tough unless you're absolutely whipping them up front, which Michigan probably won't unless Kemp was the sneakiest new star in recent Michigan history.

When Michigan has the ball it could be another afternoon of erratic run execution and aggressive linebackers putting stuff on Patterson's arm and whether Evans and Higdon (or Wilson) can make the most of their opportunities to hit the secondary. The tackles then come into play. Nebraska looks like a relatively comfortable matchup for them, but trying to predict an outcome there is close to impossible.

Michigan has better players more experienced in their system and should win. But not by 18.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Martinez is limited and this explains the line, I guess? Therefore he has less than 50 rushing yards.
• Patterson has 30 attempts and is sacked three times but nears 10 YPA.
• Michigan, 32-23