the rarest thing in football [Patrick Barron]

Preview 2019: Special Teams Comment Count

Brian August 29th, 2019 at 4:27 PM

Previously: Podcast 11.0A, Podcast 11.0B, Podcast 11.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety.

Depth Chart

Kicker Yr Punter Yr Kickoffs Yr Punt return Yr Kick return Yr
Jake Moody So. Will Hart Jr.* Jake Moody So. Donovan Peoples-Jones Jr. Ronnie Bell So.
Quinn Nordin Jr.* George Cataran Fr.* Quinn Nordin So.*   Ronnie Bell So. Giles Jackson Fr.  

Michigan's got more specialists than you can throw a stick at, if you've got three sticks. They've also got an explosive punt returner and a knack for blocking kicks. Add it up and last year's special teams finished 12th nationally, per FEI, despite a mid-season field goal lull.

This is becoming something of a tradition. Michigan was 28th in 2017 despite a giant punting aberration, 3rd in 2016, and 11th in 2015. That's impressive longevity at the top of the rankings in a high-variance environment. USC special teams guru John Baxter seems to have rubbed off on Chris Partridge and Jay Harbaugh. (Also, having Jabrill Peppers and Donovan Peoples-Jones back to back helps.)

Looks like more of the same in 2019.

KICKER: IS MULTIBALL A THING YET

Rating: 5

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all kicker pictures are the same [Bryan Fuller]

Chris Partridge just told the assembled media that Michigan's kicker competition was still ongoing:

“That’s ongoing, it’s awesome,” Partridge said. “When you’ve got two guys that are phenomenal and are duking it out, we’ll just keep it rolling. Both were really good in the spring through camp and I don’t think we’re pressed to make an immediate decision. We’re just going to let those guys keep working.”

It may well be, but this space is going to tell you who wins: JAKE MOODY. Moody got the nod after QUINN NORDIN's second consecutive midseason lull saw him miss 4 of 7 attempts after starting 8 of 9. Instead of having a yelling match on the sideline again, Harbaugh inserted Moody. Moody grooved all his attempts inside 40 and finished the year 10/11. He'll get the first shot, and will have to miss a few to open the door for Nordin again.

Normally this would be the part where we mention Nordin's enormous leg and speculate that he could be the designated guy for improbable bombs. Obligatory spring field goal goes here:

That may be the case. Nordin does have a track record from 50+ that Moody has not yet matched—only two of his attempts last year were even outside 40. But while Nordin has a track record of hitting bombs, Moody's leg is in the same general area. He hit three 55+ FGs his final year in high school (off a tee and at a bigger target, admittedly) and was fine from 50 in this spring's field goal contest:

There was no punting but there were a lot of field goals both in the game and a special post-halftime field-goal throwdown that started at XP length and went out to 60-yarders. Every field goal in the game and every one in the FG-off was good until the 60-yarders. Both Moody and Nordin left theirs two or three yards short.

It would have to be an extremely improbable attempt to out-range Moody's leg. If Michigan lines up for a 62 yarder at the end of a half, maybe. Otherwise it'll be Moody until such time as Moody gets wobbly. Which he hopefully will not. He's got a bit more of a track record than last year's 11 attempts. His 39 field goals as a high school senior is a state record and stands in contrast to Nordin's senior year, in which he was 2/3. Somehow.

FWIW, Nordin's 2017 wasn't too bad. He went 19/24 and finished 25th in FEI field goal efficiency. Unless the most #collegekickers college-kickering of all time goes down Michigan's floor here is reassuringly high. Except that's when the #collegekickers get you. Sleep with the light on.

[After the JUMP: onomatopoeia]

PUNTING: BLOING

Rating: 4.

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slightly more punter picture variety [Bryan Fuller]

WILL HART was last year's most pleasant surprise. He spent his freshman year shanking a third of his kicks, lost his job, got it back in the bowl game because Brad Robbins was also struggling, and thunked a 35-yarder. He finished 2017 ranked 155th in gross yardage. There are only 130 teams in the division.

There were absolutely no expectations entering year two for either Hart or Robbins, and then Hart started blasting the leather off the ball. By the Nebraska game I was teasing that Hart would make the Known Friends and Trusted Agents top three—unprecedented for a punter…

Honorable mention: Will Hart is gonna get on the board if Michigan ever punts six times in a game.

...and the next week he went out and did it:

#3 Will Hart. Last week: "Will Hart is gonna get on the board if Michigan ever punts six times in a game." This week: Michigan punts six times. Hart averages 51 yards a kick. Here you go, Will Hart.

Hart didn't average 51 yards a kick, quite, but he wasn't far off. Hart didn't have enough punts to qualify for the leaderboard on CFBstats. If he did his 47.0 average would have slotted him in 4th nationally.

Hart didn't have great control, with 9 of his 20 punts that went inside the 20 going for touchbacks. And his hangtime, while fine, wasn't enough to keep up with the distance—just five fair catches all year.

That latter was not entirely a Will Hart issue. Michigan bled back a big chunk of that bonus because they continued using pro-style punting. 19 of Hart's 43 punts were returned an average of 9.8 yards, although 32 of those came on a blocked punt that went right to an OSU player. Without that the average drops to 8.6. That average is pretty good, actually—the average return went 9.2 yards last year. The problem is that only 30% of punts get returned. Michigan gives up returns 50% more often than the average team.

The result: the #4 gross average team finished barely above average (50th) in FEI's punt efficiency rankings. In previous years this space has immediately noted that Michigan blocks a lot of spread punts and may think those are more vulnerable to getting returned to sender, and that may still be valid. The free OSU touchdown dents that argument a bit. Maybe not entirely. Michigan did block three punts, and the OSU block was, IIRC, the first since a certain event.

In any case, expect more of the same: boomers from Hart that get returned more often than they should, averaging out to a punt unit that's decently above average.

RETURN UNITS: I'VE GOT A PEOPLES-JONES FOR TOUCHDOWNS

Rating: 4.5

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this might be a punt return [Bryan Fuller]

DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES has now grabbed four big chunks of yardage as as punt returner. He added a touchdown against Nebraska…

…and a big return against Penn State…

… to a couple of jets against Air Force and Ohio State in 2017. He's pretty good.

To date he hasn't been in the same stratosphere as Jabrill Peppers, who averaged 13.1 yards a return in 39 career attempts and also was incredible at fielding punts to prevent yards on the roll. Peoples-Jones is at 8.8 yards per return so far, and had a period during his first season where he made a lot of questionable decisions—and had a critical muff in the bowl game.

Peoples-Jones all but eliminated the mental mistakes a year ago, and is trending towards Peppers. His average popped up to an even 10.0, and he obviously had a hand in Michigan's #10 punt return efficiency. A lot of that was sending three back to sender.

Kickoff return is as whatever as always. Ambry Thomas did this in the opener:

There were no other interesting returns the rest of the year. This single incident was enough to land Michigan 12th in FEI's kick return efficiency metric, because kick returns are the most random thing in football.

With Thomas out—and far too valuable to risk on kickoffs anyway—Chris Partridge listed off a half-dozen potential returners:

Any of these people will be fine. The wide receivers seem like the best combination of upside and tolerable injury risk. This space has listed Ronnie Bell and Giles Jackson, the former because it seems like Michigan wants to get Bell involved, the latter because this blog wants to get Jackson involved.

Peoples-Jones should rip off some additional returns, hopefully in the right games; the punt block will get a few more; kickoffs are gonna kickoff. Add it up and another top 15 performance seems likely.

Comments

Mongo

August 29th, 2019 at 5:10 PM ^

Recap of Brian's rating:

  • Defense = 3.6 (3.3 at CB/DL)
  • Offense = 4.3 (4.7 at QB/OL/WR)
  • Special Teams = 4.8

Team Weaknesses:

  • DT = 3
  • CB = 3
  • RB = 3

Team Strengths:

  • WR = 5
  • QB = 5
  • OL = 4.5 (assumes Runyan healthy)

Upside Items:

  • Frosh contribute at DT and RB
  • Ambry gets and stays healthy
  • Mayfield becomes All-B1G HM at RT

Downside Items:

  • Runyan stays out / Ryan Hayes is forced into duty
  • Any more injuries at CB or DT or OL

This team has potential to be great, but not the typical Michigan way.  We are going to have to score a lot of points and consistently each weekend.  In Gattis we trust.

Let's strap it on and find out.  Go Blue !!!

GoBlue1969

August 29th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^

I’m comfortable with the fg game, but my hope is that we are scoring many more TD’s so as to not have to worry about a missed or made FG. 

KR/PR should prove to be exciting. 

Can’t wait for the season to start- Go Blue!

dragonchild

August 30th, 2019 at 6:18 AM ^

Special teams has been tracking the offense -- takes the path of most resistance, pads the stats against any team from terrible to pretty good, then dorfs the crap out of games when it really counts.

I know they're somewhat random but I'm getting tired of it and really could use a reversal here.