The "Other" Quarterbacks
Another season, another QB battle. With the departure of Joe Milton from the program — the third Michigan quarterback to transfer in three years — the biggest headlines out of the Wolverines’ fall camp will almost certainly pertain to whether Cade McNamara or true freshman J.J. McCarthy will start under center on September 4. Many people much smarter than me will spend the next few months pontificating on how Harbaugh values experience and will start McNamara, or how he’ll definitely start McCarthy because he can’t afford to lose his latest blue-chip quarterback to the portal, or how it won’t matter anyway if Sherrone Moore can’t get the offensive line up to snuff.
This post isn’t about that. I won’t be able to tell you anything about the QB battle that you don’t already know, and frankly, that discussion tends to get old after a while. Instead, I want to talk about how the “other” quarterbacks — Dan Villari and Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman — fit into the equation, and what the things we’ve heard about them mean entering fall camp. The tl;dr on this is that, barring a tragic offensive line that leads to catastrophic injuries, bizarre mismanagement of players from Harbaugh and co., or a gross misevaluation of talent on my part (highly likely!), Villari and Bowman shouldn’t see much time under center in 2021.
Dan Villari
I … didn’t expect to have to write this part. Let’s be honest here — Villari is a former 3-star redshirt freshman from New York, in a quarterback room with two much more experienced players and the fanbase-anointed savior of the program. His next best scholarship offer was from Buffalo. In most football programs, he would be slotted as a reserve quarterback, and that would be the end of the conversation.
On Jon Jansen’s podcast, Harbaugh decided to keep talking:
(Villari) was good (in the spring). Really effective. Excited about Dan. We are looking at Dan in multiple ways. Throw out the name Taysom Hill and we are going to try to do some things like that with Dan Villari as a quarterback/athlete that can really help our team. A lot to like about Dan Villari.
I’ve defended Harbaugh during this offseason, and will continue to do so if the program makes reasonable progress in the fall. But like, don’t do that. Please.
It’s entirely possible, of course, that Harbaugh’s just spewing nonsense, either as a smokescreen or because he likes to talk. In the past, he has answered questions about who’s impressed in practice by just listing everyone on the roster.
I don’t think it’s that, for two reasons. First, there’s a big difference between saying “Dan Villari has been solid” and giving a specific way that they plan to use him. The fact that Harbaugh specifically name-dropped Taysom Hill indicates that this is something he’s thought about and probably seen in practice. Second, this coaching staff has not been one to shy away from gadget plays in the past (see: wildcat formation, 2-QB package, etc.).
That second point is also why I’m so against this idea. There are situations where wildcat packages and other creative looks can be effective — like when the offense is struggling to find a rhythm against a tough defense and you put in a freak athlete to hopefully provide a spark. A red-zone second-and-five run with Hassan Haskins against Michigan State checks none of those boxes. Nor did the third-and-four jump pass that came immediately after. It reflects a tendency from the offensive coaching staff to overthink everything instead of just sticking to what works (perhaps a bit ironically, part of Don Brown’s demise was his insistence on sticking to what didn’t work).
[After the JUMP: To be fair. To be faaaair. To be fair!]
To be fair, if Villari is as athletic as Harbaugh seems to think he is, then there absolutely could be some ways to integrate him into the offense. At 6-foot-4, 227 pounds, there’s definitely an argument for finding a spot for him in short-yardage situations (assuming he has some reps carrying the ball and isn’t a fumble risk), or maybe even trying him out as a tight end if he can gain a few more pounds.
But especially considering the offensive coaching staff’s tendency to go big-brain in key situations, that doesn’t sound like the role they have planned for Villari. If you asked me if they’ll actually implement the Taysom Hill plan much this season, I’d say probably not. But the fact that Harbaugh’s thinking about it enough that he mentioned it on Jansen’s podcast means it's worth considering.
Alan Bowman
I’m gonna start this section with what I’m sure you’ve all come here to read: a lesson on macroeconomic theory (no, this won’t be the last time I do this; yes, I promise it does lead somewhere). Let’s start with a definition: the concept of human capital refers to the total accumulation of skills and knowledge embodied by a worker, developed over time through education, on-the-job training, and the broader knowledge of a field that comes through experience. In the heartlessly pragmatic world of economic modelling, a laborer’s worth is captured entirely in the human capital they accumulate; they are merely a body for the skills they possess.
A worker’s level of human capital may also be different depending on which firm employs them. Broadly speaking, human capital is obtained through two types of training: general and job-specific. Workers with high amounts of general training — such as a graduate degree or experience with a widely used programming language — will carry more human capital to a new job, while workers with more job-specific training will not. Generally speaking, human capital is most efficiently allocated when there are low mobility costs — that is, when it’s easy to switch jobs — because that allows workers to self-select positions that best match their situation and abilities.
The advent of the transfer portal has finally brought college football closer to efficiently allocating human capital. In the last few years especially, we’ve seen a number of players find their perfect match in the portal, from Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, to Joe Burrow at LSU, to Justin Fields at Ohio State. They all gathered information from suitors and self-selected the landing spot best fit their abilities.
Still, some might argue that those are extraordinary outliers, and that just as many players have gone in and out of the portal and ended up no better off (see: Tate Martell). I would counter, though, that just as impactful as the portal’s shuffling of star players is the opportunity for non-stars to find a better home. That’s where I see Bowman’s transfer fitting into the equation. Michigan went to the portal in search of quarterback depth; Bowman wanted a fresh start at a program that’s more competitive than Texas Tech. It makes sense.
Bowman also brings with him quarterbacking experience — human capital! — that adds to his value in a depth role. He has by far the most college reps in the QB room (Cade McNamara has 71 career pass attempts, while Bowman has 713), and at times even flashed some brilliance with the Red Raiders. Some fans have already latched onto his 605-yard, six-touchdown performance against Houston in 2018:
Still, it’s important to remain realistic about what Bowman’s role will be. Experience gained in a different type of offense against Big 12 defenses won’t assert itself in the same way in Ann Arbor — analogous to human capital gained through job-specific training. Realistically, Bowman was brought in because Michigan doesn’t want an injury to derail the season. If McNamara or McCarthy gets hurt, Bowman can be a reliable enough replacement.
Beyond that, he can add a little more competition to the QB room and maybe even help mentor McCarthy early on, but don’t expect much more than that. That’s the reality of the situation; more likely than not, Michigan’s “other” quarterbacks will remain just that — other. They’ll be there to make competition a bit more intense in fall camp, and they might even take the occasional snap in a gadget play or after an injury, but I wouldn’t expect them to factor into any conversations beyond that.
Bowman will replace Cade by the season's end. The only reason why Bowman isn't going to get the starting job is because of a lack of practice with the team. And we all know how stubborn JH is with his QB's. Doesn't matter if the best QB plays, so long as it's HIS guy.
We should all be concerned if McCarthy gets any legit playing time this season.
I've got no idea what to make of this take.
Even your avatar looks confused by it
I think it’s a roose.
Roose is praise. Ruse is a trick.
Which is it?
Are you accusing B Roose of high praise or a trick?
Your comment could be ruse.
It’s not a misdemeanor
Cade is the starter, both Gattis and JH love him. He has the team buy-in, knows the offense, and gives Michigan their best chance to win. JJ is hoping to avoid red shirt and get garbage time experience and snaps. The coaches have a plan, and all the meritocracy stuff doesn't really apply because of how far advanced Cade is with the system. I think if Cade got injured it would depend what week of the season it is, but Bowman or Villiari might get the nod if it's before halloween.
Michigan really liked what the saw this morning from Apple Valley QB Jayden Denegal, offered him, and let the comparisons begin with Kapernick.
Cheers
If Cade is starting because he gives the team the best chance to win, why do you say the meritocracy stuff doesn’t really apply? The qb who get’s picked in a meritocracy should be the one who gives the team the best chance to win.
“How far advanced Cade is in the system”
LOL! What system?! I’m still not sure who’s calling plays and whoever is, it really hasn’t worked…
Not much other than it’s a bad take. I mean for starters... with Harbaugh only caring if it’s HIS guy taking the snaps, the guy sure has given the starting job to a lot of transfers and guys recruited by other coaches...
we should all be concerned in any case, that Harbaugh has not developed 1 top QB in his time at M is a huge concern.
until we win something meaningful and have an offense that can move the ball and score I am concerned with M football.
I think it’s well documented how concerned we are about that. My concern piggybacks off of that with this talk of a Taysom Hill-like role. Every time we try to over complicate things and get creative it’s a disaster. Even if JH had Taysom Hill on the roster, it wouldn’t workout. Let’s just focus on one quality starter like every team that makes the playoffs….once we master that, then we can get creative. It’s frustrating that no one within the program sees these failures.
We should all be concerned if McCarthy gets any legit playing time this season.
If McCarthy turns out to be a pretty good player, I promise you TuffBammBamm that you will be much less concerned, and glad he got game reps.
If C.J. looks good this year, do you think Quinn goes to the next highest bidder?
If everything about Quinn is legit, CJ will end up transferring to the highest Portal bidder.
Stubborn Jim!
* replaced the offense completely and went hands off, installing an OC for the first time. (People have analyzed this, the opposing rumors are just that).
* Totally changed schemes
* Always looking for the best QB. Honestly sometimes too often; keeping competiton open for a long time. (How you going to define 'best' guy that didn't play? Did you see the practices where it was clear the best guy was sitting the bench? )
* Got a guy to supplement Drev, trying a 'joint' OL system. When that didn't work he canned them both.
* Re did the S&C
* Got rid of Brown.
* Remade recruiting
* had a complete staff turnover this year.
* completely changed his on-field demeanor
* completely changed his crazy competition model at the request of his seniors.
I hate this take. I'm a Harbaugh supporter, As of now I think he's a good man, who got us winning again after 7 years of doom, and he's good for the program; but I know the guy isn't perfect. His personality is... quirky. He has higher turnover than I'd like for his skill positions. He still hasn't figured out OSU. He makes comments that are hard to defend sometimes.
But this 'Stubborn Jim' thing is stupid. We've arguably had more key changes since he's been here than almost all other B1G schools that haven't completely changed head coaches. I'm not sure I like all the changes (the offense in '16, the one everyone refers to as 'Not modern' kept blowing out people. Glad we went to a spread. Hope it works all the time this year as the high octane O that was advertised).
But he's not been averse to change. It just drives me nuts. I've seen people see a run and go 'OH STUBBORN JIM MUST BE RUNNING THE OFFENSE!' then in the next breath say 'WE'VE HAD WAY TOO MUCH CHANGE HERE HE SHOULD SETTLE ON SOMETHING' only to try to square that circle with the conspiracy theory 'HE CHANGED THINGS BUT IS REALLY THE BO OFFENSE PUPPET MASTER BEHIND THE SCENES!"
This isn't new. I remember walking back from trouncing OSU and hearing people bitch endlessly about Carr pre-Tressel. 'Sure it was a good game but with all that talent he recruits we should be national champions all the time...'
Michigan fans: irrational to the end so long as they can light the torch and sharpen the pitchfork.
Here's to healthy QBs while "Others" sit on the bench.
Bizarre mismanagement of offensive players is kind of a Harbaugh staple at this point and a big reason there is a decent likelihood this is his last season as coach.
Came to comment this. This is a fascinating management case study.
Harbaugh and Gattis looked like they were setting Michigan up for a run of sustained success: after Speight and Peters get injured into ineffectiveness and John O'Korn forgets how to play, a couple years of Shea Patterson gives you time to develop Milton or McCaffrey, time to fix Brandon Peters, time to recruit and develop Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy...and then the run of QBs can extend for an entire generation pretty much unbroken because at the very least you'll always have a senior QB on the roster who's been in the system for 3 years.
Instead, we had two frustrating years of infinite regression from Shea, Peters rightfully bailed, and the coaches mismanaged the Milton/McCaffrey situation into losing BOTH of them with only 5 games out of Milton, 4 of them absolute disasters, to show for it.
This is an EPIC faceplant out of Harbaugh & co.
you'll always have a senior QB on the roster who's been in the system for 3 years
With the transfer portal and rules, this is very unlikely unless the QB isn't all that good.
Sounds like contract extension-worthy success.
Guys leave when they lose quarterback battles. Harbaugh has recruited quarterbacks an extremely high level. 2015-21 Michigan has got 1 five star, 6 four stars, JD Johnson was tracking before medical retirement, and he brought in 5 star Patterson via transfer. The problem is none have been developed.
Settling on a scheme might help. I'm far from a spread zealot but we're here now so lets stay here awhile and see how it works. We've been stuck in situations where we had WR's great for more conventional offenses that were stuck in a spread; similar situations with QB's.
As to QB retention; I think that ship has sailed. You won't see a Matt Gutierrez anymore. Why would they stay when they can take their game elsewhere and play?
The sudden lobotomy on offense after the 2016 season will be the source of much speculation for years to come. I sense another John Bacon book in the works to explain it all. Working title : "WTF?!"
I still maintain going away from Speight, for Shea, was a mistake. He was still young and was looking good for the next season.
I hope for Harbaugh success. I'm not for a coach in overhaul... I love the current staff and energy.
His bizarre mismanagement of players is only surpassed by his bizarre hiring of offensive staff who then mismanage the offensive players. And yes, since Gattis is still here, it'll likely be Harbaugh's last.
Pretty good for post #2, Broose.
Yes,I like the content direction MGoblog has pivoted too. Please keep it up!
The reason Taysom Hill is so effective is because he can line up at so many spots and be effective, which gives an element of unpredictability when he's on the field as a QB, RB, FB, TE, WR, etc. Knowing Michigan staff, their execution of using Villari as Taysom Hill is putting him on the field in very obvious gadget plays where the defense knows where the ball is going and getting 2 yards. Best case scenario is a PSU Tommy Stevens situation where he gets goal line QB duties occasionally and gets a few rushing TDs
I appreciate the Taysom Hill stuff because it’s different and fun, but I don’t know that Hill was even all that effective for the Saints when compared to the rest of their prolific offense. He is an interesting talent but the whole thing feels like a Sean Payton vanity project; I hope we don’t see Harbaugh attempt the same thing.
It seems that these types of "gimmicky" schemes work best for the team that does them first, and is much less effective for those that try to imitate them. I think part of this is the novelty factor - defenses have no idea what to do the first time they see a new thing.
The other part is that the original team tailored that gimmick specifically to their guy. Taysom Hill is pretty unique and the scheme is effective because of that. I don't think you can find a guy that's kind of like Hill, run that same gimmick, and expect it to work. It feels like that's what we'd be doing if we ran a Taysom Hill-esque package with Dan Villari.
They also work better for teams that are already clicking on offense as opposed to being pathetic, desperate attempts at generating offense where there is none.
"... very obvious gadget plays where the defense knows where the ball is going and getting 2 yards ..."
Ah, Pure Michigan. It's right there with apple cider and archery (deer) season, except that it's not enjoyable.
Truth, but you forgot the part about running the same "gadget" play every time Villari enters the field such that even the opponent's equipment manager knows what defense to call.
Why must you give away our secrets?! Not everyone on this blog can be trusted!! Nothing to see here buckeye fans.
Excellent OP, Brendan. You're providing excellent content and it's good to have you here.
This is my take on the Villari situation/commentary as well. Under Harbaugh, Michigan has not been successful when they have tried to be tricky, except against inferior competition (i.e. Minnesota). So, they will trot out Villari against less-talented teams, do something obvious and predictable and then either (a) put the tricks away against better teams or (b) run the exact same thing with no success. The wild card here is Weiss, and if he can get some influence, the gadget stuff may go better.
That said, this kind of thing is detracting from what should be the obvious goal -- modernizing the offense to be more explosive and score more points. It concerns me that a focus on trickeration with Villari might mean that we are planning on running less RPO action from the QB position, and that the QB will once again be indoctrinated with the "safety first on offense" mantra that has contributed to limited production during the Harbaugh tenure. With a defense anticipated to be porous, our offense will need to score, since the skilled teams we will face will assuredly do so. Again, Weiss is the wildcard and hopefully he is working hard to modernize the offensive focus.
As far as Bowman, he will compete for the starting job. I don't think he would have come here to be a certain backup. So it'll come down to Bowman and Cade.
Exactly this ~ Michigan tends to pull gadget plays right in the middle of a succesful series ~ and then manages to take its sweet time getting set (e.g. no tempo ever!!) which allows every single person and player both in the stadium and watching on TV to simply wonder is this gadget going to the left or right.
- There is also never, ever, never a counter to the gadget run ever
- The defense tees off on the player with the ball
- Michigan successfully kills a play, drops momentum, and usually stalls the entire series
Michigan has been doing what you described since Schembechler. If I had a fiver for every slow-developing end-around that the whole stadium could see coming that took forever to execute for a four-yard gain in the 1970s, I could eat at the Chop House.
These highlights will show you why Villari *may* be successful running some gadget plays: the kid is athletic as all get out. I highly doubt we see more than one or two “Villari gadget” plays this season, but they could be exciting! Also, the commentary the narrator of this video provided is just hilarious to listen to.
It's a real bummer about JD Johnson's health. He looked like a pretty good prospect. Vilari may end up already, but I'd rather not even think about Harbaugh's dumb 2 QB stuff.
Well done, Broose.
This is your second front page post and the second article I've very much enjoyed. You're a good writer Brendan - I hope you contribute more frequently.
And, FWIW, the continual reappearance of the stupid gadget plays & formations (to name just one) make me think that Harbaugh is quite a bit more involved in the offense than either he or Gattis would have us believe. Those were part of Michigan's offensive pre-Gattis (hello PepCat & the Choo-Choo) and will probably be here post-Gattis provided Harbaugh is still the HC.
Seriously could not have enjoyed more, and will be looking forward to your next post.
Not often that I read a blog and feel smarter for having spent the time consuming. I thoroughly enjoyed the use of human capital and it's application to playing sports.
I also could not agree more with when to and when not to use gadget plays. Hopefully, someone like Matt Weiss can help us analytically plan for when best to employ these.
My favorite comment today, "I’ve defended Harbaugh during this offseason, and will continue to do so if the program makes reasonable progress in the fall. But like, don’t do that. Please."
I think lumping Bowman in as a "other" qb is way premature.
Well, the backup QB is everyone's favorite player. Who will be the first backup off the bench? I've got to believe that will be Bowman because of his experience. Hopefully, we see him late in the game early in the season against what should be lesser opponents.
However, I loved the OPs use of the human capital. Bowman's human capital may not be any stronger than what JJ brings to the table. Bowman has a lot of experience but will it transfer? Meanwhile, JJ has zero experience but outstanding talent. Using this human capital analogy, Bowman may only be slightly ahead of JJ.
This will not be my approach. I have a ton of respect and confidence in all of our guys. Our revolving door at the QB position is 100% on Harbaugh, not because of a lack of talent, desire, or effort in the qb room. Everytime he trots a different qb out there, the results are the same. I prefer to hold JH responsible for the failures at this position, not the players.
Love your analysis and descriptive metaphors.
You forgot to mention the irony of an aging worker being forgotten for a much smaller salary. There are droves of experience out there that no one wants to pay for in favor of higher top dog salaries, low overhead.
I could see Bowman as the experienced Back up QB over a true Freshman. Hopefully JJ will get his snaps in against WMU and hopefully Rutgers/NW.
But as you mention, if the line isn't coming together - no reason to get the future young man in a dire situation - Morris vs. Minnesota, Peters vs. Wisconsin...
It's is reassuring to have Bowmans XP available in the Locker Room, yes, but moreover the Film Room and on the sideline!
I disagree wholeheartedly, and will say that Bowman will see field before McCarthy....Bowman will play if Cade isn't getting it done, or if he goes down.
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