About Last Week

I feel bad for Mel Tucker right now.

Not THAT bad, of course. There is a limit to how bad you can feel for someone making $26,000 per day to produce Indiana-level results. But I do have some sympathy. After all, while many things that have been his fault this year, this one is on the previous regime.

Mark Dantonio built a machine. An amazing machine. A powerful machine. A wonderous, marvelous, fantastical Michigan-Hating Machine. An energy-producing perpetual aggrievement device that violated the first law of thermodynamics (which was fine, because “laws,” and the enforcement thereof, weren’t really a relevant construct for that machine). And he didn’t just use that machine to take on Michigan. He used that machine to power every aspect of his program. And it made that entire program better, at least if you limit the scope of “better” to on-field success.

When Mel Tucker came in, he went a different direction. He tried to power his program on hope and hype. On slogans and mantras. On “Deep Water” and “The Woodshed” and #RELENTLESS and #TuckComin and the “Keep Chopping” hand signals. He was Bigger Balder Harold Hill, bringing all the shiny new non-fungible band equipment to the children of Red Cedar River City.

But he knew about the Michigan-Hating Machine. And when things started to go poorly, he plugged it in, not knowing exactly what it did or how it worked. He didn’t know how complicated the machine was, or the possible consequences if the control rods were removed from the core. And he lost control of it. And it went critical.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is how a season explodes

The problem Tucker has now is that the Michigan-Hating Machine drew strength from both success against Michigan AND from failure against Michigan. It was the genius of the system, where old grievances could be recycled into new fuel. It continued the reaction. The Hope Machine doesn’t work like that, and you can only keep choppin’ for so long without fuel.

The Road Ahead

Rutgers (4-4, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 31-0

Recap: The worst part about the MSU tunnel assault situation, obviously, is that it is a distraction from the real story right now: IT’S RUTGERS WEEK. A sacred time for all. The reason for the season. The siren song of cable subscribers everywhere. Don’t lose focus, people. Eyes on the prize.

Anyway, on Saturday, Minnesota Minnesota’d, Rutgers Rutger’d, and that about enough of that.

The Gophers outgained Rutgers 375 (5.1 YPP) to 134 (3.0 YPP), and did so almost exclusively on the ground. Minnesota’s backs, led by Mo Ibrahim, rushed for 233 yards at 4.8 yards per carry. Minnesota’s set the tone from the opening whistle; their first two drives combined to span 32 plays and 17:30 of game time.

Meanwhile, the Rutgers’ offense continued to struggle, gaining a total of 7 first downs on the day. Rutgers started sophomore Gavin Wimsatt, who is still not quite ready. He went 6 of 17 for 68 yards (4.0 YPA) and a pick before being replaced by Noah Vedral… who was somehow even worse.

This team is as frightening as: Donald Duck. Always really angry, but in an endearing kind of way. Hard to understand. They’ve been the way they are for so long that you sometimes gloss over the fact that they aren’t wearing pants. Fear Level = 3

TFW Pete the Cat knocks over your garden fence

Michigan should worry about: Michigan has to prepare for four different quarterbacks; Wimsatt, Vedral, Evan Simon, and Johnny Langan. Sure, they are all bad… but they are differently bad. And that’s a lot of practice reps that could otherwise be used to prepare for Ohio State that now might have to be spent on “what happens when their starting Tight End lines up under center?”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Football games are determined by the number of points on the scoreboard. Rutgers hasn’t scored more than 24 points in an FBS game this year. Michigan hasn’t scored fewer than 27 in any game this year. 27 > 24.

When they play Michigan: Rutgers has announced that Wimsatt will start. For whatever that’s worth.

This week: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +25.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Into Thin Air.]

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Nebraska (3-5, 2-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Illinois, 26-9

Recap: Nebraska was in this game midway through the second quarter. Nebraska had a 3-point lead and the ball, and had generally moved the ball pretty well against the vaunted Illinois defense. But then Casey Thompson had his arm hit on a throw, which (a) caused the pass to be intercepted and returned to the Nebraska 11, and (b) knocked Thompson out for the rest of the game with a hand/arm injury. You can see that moment pretty clearly on the ESPN win expectancy graph:

Well there’s your problem

One of these days something is going to go right for Nebraska. Just probably not soon.

This team is as frightening as: Various versions of Multiverse theory of cosmology suggests that there are many ⁠— potentially infinite ⁠— version of this universes out there, whether in this dimension or in parallel dimensions. Some may have different physical constants (such as the speed of light, or the distance from a midday sun that equates to “a hot one”). These universes will, in theory, produce every possible outcome for every possible event that the mind can create, and many, many results that the mind cannot.

So, super nerd-science says there’s a chance that Nebraska aligns all of their various pieces at the same time. Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan can sleep soundly about: In this particular universe, Nebraska’s only FBS wins were a home win over Indiana that was tied through three quarters and a one-point win over Rutgers in which they were outgained.

Michigan should worry about: If Thompson is healthy, he’s second in the B1G (behind only CJ Stroud) at 9.3 yards per pass in conference play.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is first in the Big Ten in yards per carry, rushing yards per game, and rushing first downs. Nebraska is last in the Big Ten in yards per carry allowed and rushing yards per carry allowed and second to last in rushing first downs allowed. The recipe here is pretty straightforward.

This week: vs. Minnesota, noon, ESPN2 (Nebraska +15)
 

Illinois (7-1, 4-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Nebraska, 26-9

Recap: It would have been interesting to see an entire game of the Illinois defense against Casey Thompson. This was supposed to be Illinois’ first game against an offense that could competently throw the ball; they hadn’t played Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan, or Purdue, and their only loss was to the Competent-Passing-Team-That-Has-Been-Run-Through-Google-Translate-A-Few-Times Indiana. This was gonna be a test… until they asploded Thompson’s hand on the fifth drive of the game

In the first four drives when Thompson was in the game, Nebraska put up 215 yards at 9.8 yards per play, including 6 plays of 15+ yards, and scored a field goal and a touchdown (the extra point was blocked). Thompson threw for 172 yards at 11.5 YPA. After Thompson left, Nebraska managed 33 yards at [wet fart noise] yards per play, scored zero points, and made no appreciable attempt to do much of anything.

This team is as frightening as: Regular Mario, post-mushroom but pre-flower.

Michigan State Mario      Illinois Mario         Michigan Mario

Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Tommy DeVito.

/checks notes

/rechecks notes

Yeah, no, that’s what it says. DeVito completed 20 of 22 passes for 179 yards (8.1 YPA) and 2 TDs. In the last two weeks, DeVito is completing 83.3% of his passes for 8 YPA, and he has eclipsed 7 YPA in 5 of his last 6 games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois still hasn’t played a top-50 SP+ offense. You wanna know what that means in practical terms? Illinois’ defensive coordinator Ryan Walters (who is going to be a head coach within like three years) said the following about Michigan State this week:

Their O-line I think is the best offensive line that we’ll have faced to date with the way they play with each other, the combo blocks, the way they cut off the backside of runs. A physical running back. When you look across the board, they’ve got guys at every position and they’re well coached and they’ve got a good scheme.

Michigan. State.

When they play Michigan: Beat Ohio, clap, clap, clap clap clap

This week: vs. Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Illinois -16.5, no standing 8-count, no 3-knockdown rule, can only be saved by the bell in the last round)
 

Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Penn State, 44-31

Recap: Ohio State is, statistically, the best team in the country. So then why do they keep struggling with teams that are emphatically NOT statistically the best team in the country?

The Buckeyes put up 21 points against Notre Dame in Week 1. Okay, it’s week 1. It happens. Then they were held to 2.2 yards per carry by Iowa and struggled mightily to finish drives despite being gifted 27 short fields. Okay, it’s Iowa and you were always going to win by a million, and they gave you the ball in the “…but don’t break” part of the field, which is great for your chances to win but terrible for certain stats. Fine.

But now Ohio State struggled (relatively speaking) in multiple phases of the game against Penn State. They couldn’t run the ball at all offensively except for one late 41-yarder, and defensively they gave up 24 first downs and had a worse down-to-down success rate than the Nittany Lions.

This is college football. Every team, and I do mean EVERY team, has clunkers. Ohio State’s clunkers are still plenty good to win damn near every opponent they face. But there is one team on their schedule against whom a clunker won’t be enough.

This team is as frightening as: Climbing Mount Everest. Yes, there is a path. It’s actually a pretty well-defined path. But you need a good deal of help, and there are a lot of dead bodies along the way. A LOT of dead bodies. So many dead bodies that some of those dead bodies actually serve as navigational markers. “Oh, here’s where Notre Dame ran out of oxygen. Hang a left. Watch your step near this crevasse; this is where the Penn State fell a million feet and its corpse was torn to shreds by a Yeti. If you reach Iowa, for the love of God, abandon the ascent and turn around.” Fear Level = 9.993

Michigan should worry about: Well now I’m worried about Ohio State AND Yetis.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Okay, so here’s my operating theory: Michigan wants to squish you. Ohio State wants to blow you up.

The way that plays out is that, if Michigan’s game goes as planned, you get a game like Saturday’s MSU game. Michigan won by 22 points, but once the lead was 9, the game was effectively over. When Ohio State’s game goes as planned, you get a game like their Wisconsin game, where they gave up 21 points at 5.3 yards per play, but who cares because they spent the whole game up 3 or 4 touchdowns. In other words, when Ohio State plays the way they want to play, it is often gonna end up looking more impressive than when Michigan does likewise. An exploded whale will always be more awesome than a car crushed in a compactor. And we draw conclusions based on comparative awesomeness that may not hold when neither team gets to play their style.

When they play Michigan: Oh the weather outside is… BE MORE FRIGHTFUL, DAMMIT.

This week: oh no

sweet merciful football gods no

oh why would they let this happen

and on a national broadcast no less

@ Northwestern, noon, ABC (OSU -murderdeathkill)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (2-6, 2-2 MWC)

Last week: Lost at Boise State, 49-10

Recap: I’m no sure this game was as close as the score made it appear. Boise outgained Colorado State 514-170. They outrushed Colorado State 209-3. They gained 30 first downs to Colorado State’s 6.

Colorado State can pretty much start looking forward to the New Mexico game on Black Friday as their only realistic chance to win another game this year.

This week: @ San Jose State, 10:30 p.m. (CSU +24.5)
 

 

Hawaii (2-7, 1-3 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Wyoming, 27-20

Recap: Good teams win. Great teams cover. And Hawai’i has covered the spread in four straight games.

The Rainbow Warriors kept this game competitive for most of the evening/morning/whatever; the score was tied 13-13 after 3 quarters, but as with their close losses to San Diego State and Colorado State, they weren’t able to close.

Hawai’i: great, but still working on “good.”

This week: @ Fresno State, 10:30 p.m., FS2 (Hawai’i +23.5)
 

UConn (4-5)

Last week: Beat Boston College, 13-3

The face of a dog that can smell a bowl berth

Recap: I don’t know why people have talked so much shit about Michigan’s non-conference schedule. Sure, Colorado State and Hawai’i are terrible, but they had the guts and foresight to schedule UConn, and they should get credit for that.

UConn played Boston College pretty evenly on a per-play basis, but they jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead and forced a turnover (5 total) every time Boston College started to do anything of consequence. As a result, the Fightin’ Jim Moras collected their first Power 5 win since early 2016, and have equaled their ***COMBINED*** win totals from 2018-2021. All on one season.

The Huskies had a preseason win total over/under of 2.5 wins. They are now better than a two-touchdown favorite to DOUBLE that with two games left. Win, and they set up a game against Army in two weeks for bowl eligibility.

This week: vs. UMass, 7:00 p.m. FRIDAY, CBSSN (UConn -15.5)
 

Maryland (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye

DONE AND DONE

Recap: We didn’t say anything because we didn’t want to jinx it (even on a bye week), but MARYLAND SURVIVED OCTOBER AS A REAL TEAM. A 3-1 record (albeit against a slate of MSU, Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern), no major injuries (pending Tagovialoa’s expected return), no hilarious program hijinks... really just a solid all-around normal, middling month for a normal, middling team.

So, about November…

This week: @ Wisconsin, noon, BTN (Maryland +5.5)
 

Iowa (4-4, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 33-13

Recap: Iowa did an offense.

The Hawkeyes cracked 6 yards per play for the first time in Big Ten play since 2020. They rushed for 178 yards at 5.1 yards per play, their best results this season by a good margin. They gained 25 first downs, exceeding their previous season high of 16. Heck, they even converted 45% of their 3rd downs, also a season-best.

So, in light of all of this information, we must address a topic that we have managed to avoid for most of the year: just how bad is Northwestern? And how bad are they if you apply the same “COVID year doesn’t really count” principle that seems to hold up so well for most other teams?

Yes, Northwestern went 7-2 and won the Big Ten West in 2020. But Northwestern went 3-9 (1-8 B1G) in 2019. They went 3-9 (1-8 B1G) in 2021. And they are currently 1-7 (1-4 B1G) and are EXTREMELY likely to finish 1-11 (1-8 B1G). That would be a combined 7-29 (3-24 B1G) in the last three seasons that aren’t complete bullshit. They’ve scored under 18 points per game in each of those seasons. The defense is getting worse in every appreciable statistic. And soon they will get to leave the safe confines of the Big Ten West and swim in the regular tank with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and USC.

Is it too soon to talk about Fitz getting fired? Probably too soon to talk about Fitz getting fired.

Probably.

This week: @ Purdue, noon, FS1 (Iowa +4.5)
 

Indiana (3-5, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Indiana, waiting patiently.

Recap: No Recap. Bye.

This week: vs. Penn State, 3:30 p.m., ABC (IU +13.5)
 

Penn State (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 44-31

Recap: From the moment Penn State took a 14-10 lead midway through the second quarter, you knew they were going to find a way to Frames Janklin it up. It was like having ten minutes left in an episode of Murder, She Wrote waiting for Jessica Fletcher to put everything together. And it looked for all the world like the 4th quarter drive that featured two missed field goals, a 4th down slant to a guy wearing #44, a goal line fumble, and a 4th-and-goal play that was blown up in the backfield would be that moment. But somehow, by some Nittany Miracle, Penn State managed to score a touchdown on that godforsaken drive to take a 21-16 lead.

No, it turned out the real Framesing was the almost incomprehensible three (3) interceptions Sean Clifford threw TO DEFENSIVE ENDS. I did not see that one coming, Jessica.

Still, a closer-than-expected game against Ohio State is worth at least two more years on James Franklin’s contract.

This week: @ Indiana, 3:30 p.m., ABC (PSU -13.5)
 

Michigan State (3-5, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan 29-7

quit hitting yourself [Barron]

Recap: Normally we don’t talk about last week’s game in this column, as between the podcast, the game column, Neck Sharpies, and two UFRs, there is always so much commentary on the recent game on this site that my additions would be superfluous.

HOWEVER.

This week, with the amount of attention being focused on the ass-kickings in the tunnel, it is worth noting the extent to which Michigan absolutely kicked the shit out of Michigan State ON the field.

You know how you get people to stop calling you “Little Brother?” I mean, sure, you could put the inferiority complex away for five seconds, which would certainly help. But just as importantly, when you play the team you *SWEAR* isn’t Big Brother, don’t let them pull the ultimate big brother move and calmly sit on your chest and use your own hands to slap you in the face until you cry uncle. Because that’s exactly what Michigan did. They sat on Michigan State. Michigan State’s $9.5 million coach and their $7.5 million coaching staff went into halftime within shouting distance of Michigan, and Jesse Minter ate their damn halftime snack and then stuffed them in a locker.

Don’t worry, you’ll hit a growth spurt one of these years. Until then, mom says I still have to take you to Big Ten Media Days.

This week: @ Illinois, 3:30 p.m., BTN (MSU +16.5)