Opponent Watch 2015: Week 2
About Last Week:
The Road Ahead:
UNLV (0-2, 0-0 MWC)
Last week: Lost to #13 UCLA, 37-3
Recap: UNLV has… well, let’s be polite and say that they have some issues. Their starting quarterback, Blake Decker, pulled a hamstring or a groin early in this one. His replacement, Kurt Palandech, went 4 for 15 for 4 yards and an INT. No, that is not a typo. 4 yards on 15 attempts. Overall, the Yes We Are The Rebels Deal With Its were outgained better than 2-to-1 (526 to 237). Their only scoring drive was a four play, zero yard march after they intercepted UCLA’s backup at the UCLA 14 at the veeeeeeery end of the 4th quarter.
This team is as frightening as: A cow being lowered into the velociraptor cage. Fear Level = 1.5
Michigan should worry about: You see… uh…
Michigan can sleep soundly about: UNLV has lost 8 in a row, and are currently ranked #117 in FEI and #123 in S&P+. They are bad at football.
When they play Michigan:
This week: @ Michigan, noon, BTN
[After the jump: a guide for when to punt]
BYU (2-0)
Last week: Defeated #20 Boise State, 35-24
Recap: Indiana may have the title of #ChaosTeam locked up, but BYU is quickly earning the related title of #WalterWhiteTeam. They are presented in such a way to make them the protagonist, but you are often reminded that they are, in fact, the bad guy in the story. BYU won on yet ANOTHER last-second miracle heave from Tanner Mangum, which is another feel-good “hey look Walt and Jesse survived another impossible situation with some science, bitch” moment, and then the show reminds you that, yep, you’re probably not supposed to like this guy.
Mangum finished with 309 yards passing, though 189 yards of that came on an 84-yard back foot heave on a scramble, a 70-yards back foot heave on a scramble, and a 35-yard back foot heave on a scramble. The key to defending BYU seems pretty clear: stop their receivers from being so freeking tall. If there is ever a situation for which Michigan’s uber-tall corner situation with Stribling and Clark will be an advantage, you’d have to think this would be it.
This team is as frightening as: Getting punched in the shlong by a large Samoan dude. Fear Level = 7
Michigan should worry about: Bronco Mendenhall might put some Lily of the Valley in Michigan’s juice box.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: If they keep to the timeline, BYU won’t start widespread coordinated prison gang stabbing attacks until like Week 8 or 9.
When they play Michigan:
This week: @ UCLA, 10:30 p.m., FS1
Maryland (1-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Lost to Bowling Green, 48-27
Recap: Woof. Maryland was outgained 692-341 and gave up 445 yards in the second half. BG quarterback Matt Johnson threw for 491 yards and 6 touchdowns and 8.9 YPA. For a team that has a first team all-B1G corner on the roster, 491 seems like many.
The score would look even worse for Maryland if Bowling Green hadn’t ignored everything we said last week about punting the ball to Will Likely. He promptly took the first punt of the game 85 yards for a really impressive touchdown. The Falcons didn’t even learn much of a lesson from this, as they punted the ball to him two more times after that. Fortunately for BG, they only had to punt three times in the entire game.
Surprisingly, Bowling Green’s win was probably only the third most impressive victory by a MAC team over the weekend, as Toledo did the Big Ten a HUGE solid by defeating the Fightin’ Berts of Arkansas 16-12, and Eastern Michigan won their first road non-conference game since 1988 (seriously) by beating Wyoming 48-29.
This team is as frightening as: Being chased by a zombie… if by “zombie” you mean the “I like turtles” kid. Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: Punting to Will Likely
Michigan can sleep soundly about: The 97% of the game that doesn’t involve punting to Will Likely.
When they play Michigan:
Seth
This week: vs. South Florida, noon, ESPNU
Northwestern (2-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Defeated Eastern Illinois, 41-0
Recap: Northwestern beat Eastern Illinois 41-0. Eastern Illinois lost to Western Illinois 33-5. Western Illinois lost to Illinois 44-0. Illinois is Illinois. The transitive property of football says that Eastern Illinois is not good.
This team is as frightening as: A team that is at least functional in all three phases of the game. That makes them one of MAYBE four teams on Michigan’s schedule who can say that.* Fear Level = 6.5
*That doesn’t feel like hyperbole. Utah, BYU, and Ohio State are pretty comprehensively non-terrible, but MSU’s special teams suck, the offenses in Minnesota and Happy Valley are terrible, the defenses at Maryland and Indiana are awful, and Oregon State, UNLV, and Rutgers are just bad at football. Rutgers is also bad at not going to jail, but that is an ancillary point.
Michigan should worry about: Northwestern has only given up 6 points in its first two games.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ten points were enough for a win last year.
When they play Michigan: Outlook hazy ask again later.
This week: @ Duke, 12:30 p.m., ESPN3
Michigan State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Defeated #7 Oregon, 31-28
Recap: Michigan State/Oregon was one of only two real marquee matchups involving the Big Ten this year, along with the JerryWorld clash between Wisconsin and Alabama (unless you count Michigan/Utah or Ohio State/Virginia Tech, which were just “marquee” because of when they were played and the surrounding circumstances). And while “conference pride” is generally a dumb concept, given the Derrick Henry-shaped dent the Bama game left in Wisconsin’s collective torso, this one was rather important for the view of the Big Ten this season. And in that sense, it was a success. Take a bow, Jim Delany.
/thunks Jim Delany on the back of the head with a phonebook while he is bowing.
Anyway, I know my Sparty readers (and yes, there are threes of them out there) will accuse me of haterism, but neither team looked particularly like a national title contender in this game. Both had some very impressive units (particularly Michigan State’s offensive and defensive lines and Oregon’s skill positions), but they also showed some fundamental weaknesses. Case in point: Oregon doesn’t have a quarterback, and Michigan State doesn’t have a secondary. Vernon Adams looked rough (possibly because he had a broken index finger on his throwing hand), and missed some open receivers, including one rather important pass late in the 4th quarter. Michigan State also gave up another special teams touchdown (an 81 yard punt return) and a 49 yard kickoff return, and missed a 28-yard field goal.
That said, they still looked like a very good football team, and will almost certainly be 6-0 when they come to Ann Arbor in October. They did suffer some key injuries on Saturday, including right tackle Kodi Kieler. They also face the cuttiest of cut blocking cutblockers this weekend, Air Force, so Michigan State’s offensive line health could be a key factor going forward.
This team is as frightening as: The Death Star, but where there are a few open vents that lead to the reactor core. Fear Level = 8.5
Michigan should worry about: Aaron Burbridge finally looks like the guy he was supposed to be three years ago.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe Michigan State will rely too much on the fact that they are a better overall football team, and ignore the really important stuff like pluck and will to win and momentum.
When they play Michigan: State has given up a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, an 81-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 70-yard kickoff return, and a 49-yard kickoff return. Jabrill Peppers exists. I’m just throwing that out there.
This week: vs. Air Force, noon, ABC
Minnesota (1-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Won at Colorado State, 23-20 (OT)
Recap: The defense remains quite good. And the offense… the defense remains quite good. Minnesota held the rams to 314 total yards and 4.3 yards per play, and forced four turnovers. This effort was enough to get them to overtime against a mediocre Colorado State team. Mitch Leidner completed just over half of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt.
I mean, we can keep talking about Minnesota if y’all want, but Minnesota is boring. So let’s talk about something else.
This team is as frightening as: Falling asleep while writing a column. Fear Level = 6
Michigan should worry about: Minnesota’s corners are still good and stuff.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: anywhere, as long as they just put the Minnesota game on in the background.
When they play Michigan: Oh lord it’s a night game we’re all going to fall asleep by the middle of the second quarter.
This week: vs. Kent State, noon, BTN
Rutgers (1-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Lost to Washington State, 37-34
Recap:
There’s no way around it. Rutgers is a complete and utter disaster off the field right now. Leonte Carroo allegedly slammed a woman onto concrete after the Washington State game. In doing so, he became the seventh player or former player arrested THIS MONTH. Kyle Flood just got suspended three games by the University for attempting to improperly influence the grades of player on the edge of academic ineligibility. Julie Hermann continues to have a job. The top seventeen players in the state of New Jersey are either committed elsewhere or appear headed elsewhere.
There’s also no way around it: Rutgers is a complete and utter disaster on the field right now. It probably doesn’t help that a significant portion of their roster is literally in jail, but Washington State is bad and Rutgers should feel bad. Wazoo bettered its output from their previous game – against PORTLAND STATE – by almost 150 total yards and 1.34 yards per play. Washington State’s 81 rushing yards and 5.06 YPC were its highest totals against an FBS opponent since 2013. And even after all of that, Rutgers took a four point lead with 1:31 left on a Janarion Grant punt return touchdown, at which point Washington State executed a 10 play, 90 yard touchdown drive that lasted 1:18.
Ten plays. Ninety yards. Seventy-eight seconds. And they left two timeouts on the board.
Rutgers.
This team is as frightening as: That dream you have where you show up naked at school for a test you haven’t studied for, but your test is that you have to play Rutgers at football. Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: Last week, mostly as a default, I said “Leonte Carroo.” So I’m afraid to put anyone here, lest I curse them with significant jail time. Wait… JIM DELANY. MICHIGAN SHOULD WORRY ABOUT JIM DELANY.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: the fact that their residences are far, far away from the campus of the State University of New Jersey.
When they play Michigan: If they hire Joe Pesci as their team defense lawyer, Rutgers MIGHT have enough guys to play the game.
This week: @ Penn State, 8:00 p.m., BTN
Indiana (2-0 somehow, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Defeated Florida International, 36-22
Recap: Better. Not GOOD, mind you… but better. Unlike their previous opponent, FIU is at least an FCS team (albeit a low-end Conference USA team). And whereas last week they gave up a billionty-six yards at HEY STOP THAT yards per play, this week they gave up a very respectable 406 yards at 5.1 yards per play. That said, FIU had a chance to tie the game with about 4:00 left, until Indiana took a 96-yard pick-six to the house to seal the win.
Still, progress. The return of suspended players like Darius Latham seems to have at least stopped some of the bleeding on the defensive side of the ball.
This team is as frightening as: Restless Leg Syndrome. Fear Level = 2.5
Michigan should worry about: Gingivitis?
Michigan can sleep soundly about: That secondary is still really, really rough. And absolutely is very heavy on the youngsters. Small youngsters. And those small youngsters are going to be trying to tackle Michigan’s many large smashy people head-on.
When they play Michigan: It will be a football game.
This week: vs. Western Kentucky, 4:00 p.m., ESPNNEWS
Penn State (1-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Defeated Buffalo, 27-14
Recap: This one was not progress. And I think we can say it: Hackenberg is broken.
via Seth
A week after surrendering ten sacks to Temple, Penn State’s line managed to keep Hack’s jersey almost completely clean; he wasn’t sacked all day, and only registered two carries. Yet he only managed 128 yards passing on 27 attempts. He also barely eked above a 50% completion rate despite most of his passes being the really easy pitch-and-catch stuff. His touchdown pass was a screen pass from about the 5 yard line. Buffalo is bad, and this was a 13-6 game until the 4th quarter.
Obligatory reminder: the defense remains good. They did give up a surprising 116 yards on 27 carries to non-quarterbacks (they sacked Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata a bunch of times to make the rushing totals look better), and Buffalo did gain over 200 yards passing, but almost all of their damage came on two drives.
This team is as frightening as: A non-newtonian liquid. When you try to attack it, it puts up a lot of resistance. When it tries to go anywhere on its own, it just jiggles in place and moves slowly outward. Fear Level = 5
Michigan should worry about: The defense, mostly.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: The offense, mostly.
When they play Michigan: First to 20 wins.
This week: vs. Rutgers, 8:00 p.m., BTN
Ohio State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)
Last week: Got lucky against Hawaii, 38-0
Recap: This was a 17-0 game in the 4th quarter. So if you squint really hard and ignore the fact that Ohio State outgained Hawaii 363-165 and picked up 26 first downs to 12 and allowed exactly one drive over 30 yards, this was totally a close game that could have gone either way.
This team is as frightening as:
Michigan should worry about: Nope no problems here.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Joey Bosa only had two tackles. Maybe he’s forgotten how to play football.
When they play Michigan: “Other than the chocolate and peanut butter treats, I have no use for them.” ~ Mrs. BiSB
This week: vs. Northern Illinois, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2
Objects in Rearview Mirror
Utah (2-0, 0-0 PAC-12)
Last week: Defeated Utah State, 24-14
Recap: Utah played pretty much the same game in week two as they did in week one. They played Utah State pretty evenly through the whole game and were once again outgained, but they won the turnover battle by three. Devontae Booker was held to under 4 yards per carry, but picked up 120 yards on 31 carries. Travis Wilson left with an injured shoulder/collarbone, but Kendal Thompson filled in well enough to grab the win.
For USU, we learned that (a) Chuckie Keeton is still alive and playing football, and (b) he is not the Chuckie Keeton he used to be.
This week: @ Fresno State, 10:30 p.m., CBSSN
September 18th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
September 18th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
You obviously don't live in Oregon. Oregon fans are some of the most obnoxious in the country and this is the first time that they have shut up in the six years I have lived here. It is great. Thank you, Michigan State.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
Make no mistake, both are still top 5-10 team in the country. MSU is still a superior team this season.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
September 18th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
I love UFR like all others here, but this is my guiltiest MGoPleasure. The BYU = Breaking Bad analogy is spot-on. And the punting decision tree put together by Seth? One of the best things I've seen on this here blog.
You've outdone yourselves, gentlemen.
September 18th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
Correct on both the BYU and decision tree.
September 18th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^
I'll always be fine with Michigan being compared to raptors...
September 18th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
September 18th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
It's hard to stop watching it. Each time, I'm sure he'll connect, or see why he misses.
Also loved the punt decision tree.
I have to get a full day's work completed in just 4 hours before hopping a flight to Detroit, but I still put Opponent Watch on the top of my morning "to do" list. Thanks guys!!
September 18th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
Can't wait to be in the Big House!
September 18th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
Regarding Indiana's corners: remember when Nrofleet tried to check Darboh during the spring game?
September 18th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
the chocolate and peanut butter treats are delicious, and as i live in Ohio, they are ubiquitous. Chocolate and peanut butter is my favorite kind of candy/ice cream. Alas, I cannot eat them because: marketing.
Can someone start a candy company up there and call them Shuss Mountain Oysters or something? Ill hang up and listen
September 18th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
Sure, the chocolate and peanut butter treats are good, but they act like they invented putting chocolate and peanut butter together.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
I keep thinking the same thing. A huge talent seemingly ruined by shell-shock.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
I mean, Hackenburg was ridiculous as a freshman and then just immediately and horribly nose-dived the second Franklin entered the picture. It also looks like he will have a horrid OL for two years in a row (at least Gardner had a semi-functioning one last year).
I am guessing that PSU staff and OL cost Hackenburg a loooot of money, but I still think he leaves for the draft this year, goes low and just guts it out. Anything has to be better than what he has in Happy Valley.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
That would be best for him. The NFL will take him somewhere - there aren't a ton of strong armed, big tall guys anymore. Some team will take him late as a project because of his upside. Usually I recommend to stay and improve your draft stock but that isn't happening in Happy Valley.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
I have actually had this dream.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
Did you defeat Rutgers in this dream?
September 18th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
I actually had a dream where naked Don defeated Rutgers. Weird.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^
Now if he played BYU in his dream while naked, that would be called a nightmare. A quite painful one.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^
Excellent stuff.
I'm hoping more non-UM teams keep punting to Will Likely. Should make for even more entertaining punting decision charts in the future.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
I hadn't seen that GIF of the screen pass despite reading about it. It's even worse than I imagined. And by worse, I mean beautiful.
September 18th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
So you're saying we have a chance if they forget to play with a vim?
September 18th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^
. . . Ohio
September 18th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
When they play Michigan:
Outlook hazy ask again later. =
= 8 BALL?!?!??!
Drinking at 10:00 in the morning is a bad thing, I guess....
September 18th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
Slider? Knuckle-curve? I have a feeling his head is a VERY crowded place at this point when he drops back to be sacked...err, pass.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
Looked like a screwball to me. Would've been a good throw to back a righty off the plate had it even gotten there, not so much for a WR screen.
September 18th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
Because I'm totally lazy, would it be too much to ask that you add the records of our opponents next to the team names? Sure, it's nice that so-and-so beat so-and-so, but in a few weeks, i won't be able to remember if Utah is 2-3 or 5-0 or whatever.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
I usually do that.
EDIT - Done.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
At first I was happy we had Penn State near the end of the season because it would allow our offense to settle in a little more, but now I wish we played them now. I think their D and our D are about a wash (both quite good) but their offense is so much worse than ours which is hilarious. Luckily, we get them after they've played OSU and immediately after NW who has a good D.
When we play them, I think we'll see Wormley : Hackenberg :: Branch : Morelli, which was also at PSU under the lights. Things are finally falling back into place.
September 18th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
And also - holy smokes Penn State's OOC schedule: Temple, Buffalo, SDSU and Army. No desire to play any real teams, Penn State?
September 18th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
they seem to be having enough trouble as it is, so maybe they're not quite ready for "real" teams?
September 18th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
Rutgers @ Penn State - Coachless train wreck vs. Coach with Broken quarterback. The amazing thing is, Penn State's gonna win it with defense and Anthony Zettel.
Illinois @ North Carolina - We find out Illinois under Bill Cubit is doing ridiculous things like moving down the field and not turning the ball over.
Air Force @ MSU - Air Force's is not going to win this game, but they will score points and wipe that ridiculous smile off of Mark Dantonio's face...errr, wait a minute.
Northwestern @ Duke - Duke is unbeaten, but a very different unbeaten than Northwestern's unbeaten. Northwestern wins again with their defense.
Kent State @ Minnesota - I just don't care. And neither should you.
Nebraska @ Miami - Nebraska doesn't return to the Orange Bowl and doesn't go for two and IB Jeff Smith doesn't slip and fail to catch the two point conversion, and Tom Osborne doesn't feel tortured the rest of his life. This time it's Nebraska winning by a butthair.
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio State - Don't watch this game.
Virginia Tech @ Purdon't - I was really hoping VT would have beaten OSU. Sigh. VT wins and nobody cares.
Troy @ Wisconsin - I don't understand why Troy has a football team.
Western Kentucky @ Indiana WKU is gonna remind Indiana that it's Indiana by playing defensive football.
Pitt @ Iowa - a festival of Narduzzi vs. Ferentz. Two unbeaten teams. Probably one of the better games to watch this weekend. Iowa looked shaky last week as they always do vs. Iowa State.
September 18th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^
No, you're wrong: the Will Likely punt flow chart was the best part of this blog. Simply genius.
(actually, the whole thing was kind of brilliant . . . )
September 18th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^
September 18th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^
I award BiSB a billionty-six points. My favorite column every week!
September 18th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
Comments