The last time we saw Michigan Softball, well, it hurt. A lot. The Wolverines were out in the Seattle Regional in the deciding game three against host Washington, with the winner advancing to the Super Regionals. Michigan held a 5-1 lead heading to the bottom of the third, just 15 outs from their first ticket to the Supers since 2016. They had their ace, Alex Storako, in the circle and had to love their position. Then it all fell apart. Storako gave up two in the bottom of the third, and then the fourth saw seven Husky runs and a solid Michigan lead turned into a heartbreaking Washington blowout, 10-5. Season over. 

The good news is that a new season means new beginnings. A fresh start. Rebirth. Much of last year's core has returned for another shot at a deep NCAA Tournament run, but there are plenty of new pieces too. And if the preliminary reporting from The Michigan Daily is to be believed, this iteration of Michigan Softball is hungrier than ever to return to Oklahoma City and the Women's College World Series. Do they have the parts? And what would reaching this team's goals require? I have you covered with the 2022 Michigan Softball season preview: 

 

The Roster  

Pitching 

The strength of this Michigan team, as it has been for so many years now, is pitching. Michigan has a pair of senior aces returning, Alex Storako and Meghan Beaubien. Beaubien's storied Michigan career is well documented, a superstar pitcher from the time she arrived in Ann Arbor during the 2018 season. She's never had an ERA above 2.00 and last season was a classic MB year, 1.24 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, with 9.3 K/7 innings. Beaubien is dependable and strikingly consistent, and the question is whether the BeauBot has one last gear to reach in her 5th season. She has grown much less over her career than her counterpart Storako, so it does feel a little unlikely that Beaubien suddenly gets a lot better, but here's for hoping. What she is now is enough. 

2021 was the story of Alex Storako, who made The Jump. In 2019 and 2020, Storako showed flashes via her high strikeout numbers, but was also inconsistent and highly vulnerable to scalding hard contact. In 2021 she transformed into a monster who passed Beaubien on the depth chart to become the #1. Her 1.05 ERA and 22 wins are impressive enough before you see the strikeout numbers: 270 Ks in 146 innings (!). That 12.9 K/7 clip led the NCAA and helped make her the unanimous B1G Pitcher of the Year and a 2nd team All-American. Storako fixed her hard contact problem and mowed down the competition with ease the whole season (including Washington in G1 of that Regional Final) until it unraveled against in the aforementioned G3. That should provide enough motivation for Storako to put together another dominant campaign as a senior. 

Meghan Beaubien and sunglasses, name a more iconic duo [JD Scott]

Together, Storako and Beaubien should give Michigan elite pitching in every single big game. In NCAA softball, you need two aces to have a shot to reach the WCWS, and ideally you should have a third pitcher who may not be an ace, but can help you out in a pinch. Michigan didn't have that last year, as Sarah Schaefer was never able to develop into a reliable arm over her four years with the Wolverines, and former 5* Chandler Dennis massively disappointed due to injuries and inconsistency. Both have opted to exit the program. 

Hope for a reliable #3 thus comes from the freshman class that boasts three arms. Lauren Derkowski and Emerson Aiken are both freshmen who are elite recruits. Derkowski was the #16 national recruit by Extra Innings softball, while Aiken was the #26 recruit and a High School All-American in 2021. Fellow freshman Annabelle Widra is an elite recruit and a two-way player who can hit and pitch, but I would expect Michigan to use her primarily as a hitter (a la young Tera Blanco). Lauren Esman is also a two-way player but has thrown just two innings in her Michigan career. 

Derkowski, Aiken, and Widra are the future of the Michigan rotation starting in 2023 and so it'll be crucial to see one of them step up. Between three 5* prospects, the odds at least one of them is ready to be an impact arm seems pretty high. Michigan doesn't need any of them to be an ace so long as Storako and Beaubien are healthy, but they need one of them to give them 60-80 quality innings (or I suppose the three could combine for that many). I feel pretty comfortable about the probability that it comes to fruition. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Much more preview!]

 

Lexie Blair is still a star [James Coller]

Returning Starters Expected to be in the Lineup  

Michigan rolls over two of their three top hitters from last season in Lexie Blair and Taylor Bump. Lexie is a superstar who dazzled as a freshman in 2019, struggled (by her standards) in the abridged 2020 season, and then got back on track last year with another excellent campaign, boasting a .406/.456/.632/1.088 line with six HRs. The question with Lexie, like Beaubien, is whether she has another level of play to reach after establishing herself as a consistent star. If she could get to 10 HRs, that would be a significant development in improving an area of the team that is a weakness. 

Taylor Bump's power surge in the second half of last season helped give Michigan a shot in the arm and getting Taylor back for a 5th year was massive. Bump had an enigmatic Michigan career prior to 2021, adept at drawing walks but also far too prone to the strikeout and unable to make consistent contact. This is what I wrote about her in last season's preview: 

Bump has a ton of power in her 5'10" frame, but she's struggled to unlock it in her collegiate career, struggling at times with the strikeout. She actually walked more than she struck out last year, but she still had a batting average below the Mendoza Line.

The raw power and the eye for walks made her an obvious candidate to be a factor if she could ever figure out how to get the bat on the ball. Halfway through last season, Bump was playing everyday for the first time in her career, but still wasn't a player that opponents circled in the lineup. Then in the second game of a doubleheader against Ohio State on April 10, everything changed. From that day forward, Bump was basically prime Sierra Romero reincarnate, with a .373/.473/.933/1.406 the rest of the season (!), hitting 12 HRs in her final 28 games, with 61% of her hits over that stretch being of the extra base variety. She also drew 13 BBs, compared to only 11 Ks. Bump went from a middling starter to the B1G's most dangerous hitter seemingly overnight, drilling a HR off Washington ace Gabbie Plain in G1 of the Regional Finals, and she went 1/1 with 2 BBs in the deciding G3, showing her success wasn't just a product of the weak conference. 

Lexie should lead off for the team and Bump should be hitting in the 3 or 4 hole. The one big name that Michigan has to replace is Lou Allan, who mysteriously chose to use her COVID-shirt to play for Liberty(?), a decision that very clearly indicates there's another factor at play here that's not available for public knowledge. 

Lauren Esman is a candidate to make The Jump [JD Scott]

The in-house starters still on the roster and favored to start are Lauren Esman and Hannah Carson. Esman was mentioned briefly in the pitching section, Michigan's DP from last season who showcased some positives and negatives in her first full season of NCAA softball. The good news is Esman hit over .300 and though she only hit a lone homer, the raw power is there. Esman hit over 20 HRs in a season back in her HS days in Kalamazoo, so she feels a little bit like Taylor Bump last year. The floor is higher, because Esman's enters 2022 in a better spot than Bump entered 2021, but the similarities are there. Both had immense raw power yet to be unleashed, and both had strikeout problems. The bad news for Esman in 2021 was that she struck out in over 30% of her at-bats, including in 8 of her final 19 ABs to end last season (42%). She also only had three hits in those last 19 ABs, an ice-cold finish that saw her be a complete non-factor in the Seattle Regional. Young hitters can be inconsistent, though, and I still have high hopes for Esman this season. 

Hannah Carson is Michigan's incumbent catcher, a remarkably consistent offensive player in her Michigan career. She's posted batting averages of .296, .284, and .296 for a career clip of .293. Her OBP and slugging numbers are in slightly wider bands of ranges, but Carson has been the same player since she ascended to the role of starting catcher following Katie Alexander's injury in the 2019 Ann Arbor Regional. She's got some power, but not a ton. Carson hit ~8 HRs a season in HS and at Michigan that has manifested in a couple per season, with her power lying more in the double than the homer. She's a fine bottom of the order piece, handling the pitching staff well and solid defensively. If you're relying on Hannah Carson to be an impact #3-4 hitter, though, you could be in trouble. 

 

A big portal pickup [UNC Athletics]

The Transfers 

Carol Hutchins has imported a pair of transfers who are presumably going to play as everyday starters for this year's team: Kristina Burkhardt and Melina Livingston. Burkhardt is a pickup that I love, coming to Michigan via UNC as a grad transfer, boasting an .851 career OPS, but she was even better than that in 2021. Last season she put up a .333/.407/.550/.957 quadruple slash with good contact numbers (only 13 Ks in 120 ABs) and also plenty of speed (3 triples and 13 steals). She did that against an All-ACC schedule, a conference that's pretty equivalent to the B1G, if not a bit tougher. Burkhardt would've been Michigan's third or fourth best hitter last season and though she doesn't quite have the power of a Lou Allan, the contact numbers are similar and she offers an intriguing dimension of speed. I'd love to see her hitting in the two hole, behind Lexie. 

Livingston is a Michigan native, from Regina High School in Warren, and has B1G experience, coming from Penn State. Livingston doesn't have quite the volume of plate appearances of Burkhardt, playing a full season in 2019 before her last two campaigns were shortened (2020 due to COVID and 2021 due to an injury), logging only 103 games across the three years. Still, that's a decent sample, and she has a career quadruple slash of .293/.380/.456/.836. That's not going to knock your socks off, but the combo of on-base ability with a touch of power means that she would've been Michigan's fourth-highest OBP and SLG hitter last season had she been on the team posting merely her career averages. Not really a replacement for Lou Allan, but if you consider Livingston a replacement for either Jimenez or Hoogenraad (she can play infield or outfield), she's a clear upgrade at the plate on both of them. 

 

Hoping we see more Lexi Voss in 2022 [JD Scott]

Returning Role Players 

Those six players I've outlined, Blair, Bump, Esman, Carson, Burkhardt, and Livingston, seem like near-locks to start, which means there are three holes in the lineup to fill. Sierra Kersten returns as a player who made 38 starts last season, but I consider her more of a role player because she was a very poor hitter lsat year, not the kind of player a true WCWS contender has in the everyday lineup. Kersten was only a freshman but a .224/.252/.296/.548 quadruple slash is not gonna cut it, especially when you consider that she had no power but also struggled to make contact, striking out in 34% of her ABs last season and drawing only two walks. If you're gonna be a banjo hitter, you have to at least offer me something in the way of contact to be in the lineup. Kersten was sliding out of the lineup by the year's end, which seems to jibe with my role player assessment. Is it possible that 2022 Kersten is a huge improvement on the 2021 version of herself? Sure, and I'd be all for that, but I'm not pencilling her in there. 

The other option with some amount of experience is Lexi Voss, who started to overtake Kersten late last year. Voss was a top 50 prospect in the 2020 class who saw nearly 0 action in her shortened freshman season, before starting to work into the mix more in 2021. She appeared in 35 games (only 20 as a starter), getting 56 ABs and hitting .268 with 3 2Bs and 1 HR. Voss is in a bucket with her classmate Esman in terms of the player profile, a HS hitter with prodigious power who hasn't unleashed that it yet at the NCAA level. I'm all for giving Voss a shot to unlock the power because it's Michigan's biggest weakness, and if she could be a .300 average, .850 OPS hitter with 6 or 8 HRs, that would earn her a spot in the lineup most likely. 

Keke Tholl is my breakout pick for this season [JD Scott]

We didn't see much of 2021's recruiting class last season besides Kersten, but both Keke Tholl and Ryleigh Carricaburu have a lot to be excited about. I made the bold prediction that Carricaburu would jump into Michigan's lineup as an everyday player in last year's season preview, but then it turns out she was injured and missed the entire season with that injury. Welp. I still remain optimistic about her, a blue chip recruit who tore up the HS scene out in talent-rich Southern California. Not immense power, but still a highly regarded hit tool. She'll get a shot to work into the lineup I think. 

Keke Tholl, niece of Michigan assistant coach Bonnie Tholl, got only 19 ABs last season, but based on the way she closed the campaign, it definitely seems like she should be in line for quite a few more this year. Tholl was seldom-used until May, but got to play in three games against Minnesota, and then was in the lineup for the deciding Game 3 against Washington, when she laced a double off Gabbie Plain. Tholl finished the year with five hits in her last nine ABs, and across her 23 PAs, she notched two doubles, one homer, and three walks to four strikeouts, good for a .917 OPS. Very small sample size, but there are real signs of life here. It's worth remembering that she was also a blue chip recruit, and one boasting more raw power than Carricaburu. To me, unless Tholl has really been bad in practice, you have to let her off the leash and see what you have, because there are glimpses of an incredibly dangerous hitter. Tholl is my breakout pick for 2022. 

The remaining pieces on the roster who return that I have yet to talk about are Kayleigh America Rodriguez, Jessica Garmen, and Audrey LeClair. They are Michigan's reserve infielder, catcher, and outfielder, respectively. Rodriguez and LeClair have mostly been pinch runners in their Michigan careers, though LeClair was once a highly regarded recruit.  Jessica Garmen was the bullpen catcher in 2020 and then appeared in three games as a pinch hitter last season, going 1/3. I would expect her to mostly only see time when Hannah Carson needs a day off, or when Carson is injured (hopefully that doesn't happen). I suppose there's a non-zero probability that one of these players emerges as a regular contributor (the Hoogenraad career path), but I think that probability is pretty low.  

 

Annabelle Widra headlines this freshman class

The Freshman Hitters 

Michigan adds three new freshman hitters to this class. Annabelle Widra was mentioned in the pitchers section, and while she can pitch, she was listed by Extra Innings Softball as an infielder in their recruiting rankings. Widra was the #8 prospect in America, which is the tier of player that Lexie Blair and Lou Allan were once in, which typically means "instant impact player". Widra hit .476 with an average of ~8 HRs and ~33 steals per season over her four years playing HS Softball in Alabama, being named Alabama's 2021 Gatorade Player of the Year. If I had to guess on one freshman to start everyday on this Michigan team, it would be Widra. 

Ella McVey comes to Michigan from Des Moines, the #44 prospect in this past recruiting class and is marketed as an infielder capable of playing either up the middle spots on the diamond. McVey's travel numbers look pretty good and obviously has talent, but that range of recruit (close to top 50) is one where sometimes they pop off right away and others (like Audrey LeClair) flounder. Finally, Ellie Seiler is the local kid Michigan takes each class, out of Monroe. Seiler is an outfielder who presents a contact-focused hit tool, holding the second-longest hit streak in Michigan HS history at 78 games. I don't think it's terribly likely we see much of Seiler in year one being a non-blue chip prospect in a logjammed outfield. 

 

A Lineup Guess 

So this is where things get interesting. Michigan has six players I know will be in the lineup, plus plenty of options for the last three slots, but I'm not sure how all the pieces fit together defensively. Here's a quick review of where all the names I mentioned above layout: 

• Lexie Blair: Leadoff & CF 
• Taylor Bump: 3 or 4 hole & can play either corner INF spot 
• Hannah Carson: Likely in the 6-8 slot & the catcher 
• Lauren Esman: Likely in the 6-8 slot & probably DP, but could play 1B 
• Kristina Burkhardt: I like the 2 hole & either corner OF spot 
• Melina Livingston: I think you can make a case for either 5-7 or 9 depending on power & has played 3B, SS, and OF in her career 

Livingston is the swiss army knife, but she committed a much higher percentage of errors in 2019 and 2021, when she was playing the infield. In particular, she put up .863 and .864 fielding percentages those two years, which makes her a major liability in the infield, unless Michigan has fixed something in practice. Hutch trotted out Natalia Rodriguez and her .954 fielding percentage at SS last year, so I think she would be very hesitant to put Livingston in that spot. In which case you're talking about her as an outfielder. 

Of the remaining pieces, here are their possible positions: 

• Keke Tholl: C/3B/1B 
• Lexi Voss: OF 
• Carricaburu: C/3B 
• Widra: INF 
• McVey: INF 

Ideally, I'd like to get Voss, Tholl, and whoever looks better between Widra and McVey into the lineup (we'll go with Widra since she's the higher rated recruit). In which case we again have this rather uncomfortable defensive problem. If you go Burkhardt/Blair/Livingston in the OF, where do you find room for Esman AND Lexi Voss? One can go to DP, and then... I guess you could put Esman at first, Voss at DP, Tholl at 3B, Widra at SS, but then that means Taylor Bump is at 2nd? Don't know about that, since she's never played second. The move from third to second seems feasible but also a risky one.

An alternate possibility is Bump at 1B, Tholl at 3B, Widra and McVey play the middle infield spots and then Voss and Esman share the DP role. That hinges on how ready both Widra and McVey are to play. Since they're freshman and your author doesn't attend practices, hard to know where they're at on that possibility. McVey does get good reviews for her defense, so it's possible she's 2018 year NatRod all over again and just takes over at short as a freshman. A final option is to try Livingston at 2B (an easier defensive position than 3B/SS), put Tholl at 3B, Bump at 1B, Widra at SS, and then put Voss in the OF and Esman at DP. It's another stab in the dark, but I like it the most of the three options we've discussed. Here's how it would look as a lineup: 

1. Lexie Blair (CF) 

2. Kristina Burkhardt (LF) 

3. Taylor Bump (1B) 

4. Lauren Esman (DP) 

5. Melina Livingston (2B) 

6. Keke Tholl (3B) 

7. Lexi Voss (RF)

8. Hannah Carson (C) 

9. Annabelle Widra (SS) 

 

Northwestern projects to be Michigan's top competition in 2022 [JD Scott]

The Schedule 

We're out of the all-conference weirdness of last year and that means the early season tournaments and the tough non-conference tests return. As usual, Michigan starts off with the Tampa tournament hosted by USF this weekend. The Wolverines see Florida and USF at that tournament, one elite program and one traditional tourney team, as well as easier but still intriguing opponents Illinois State and UMKC. 

From there they head off to the ESPN-run Clearwater Invitational, where Michigan will see three preseason top 20 opponents in LSU, FSU, and Oklahoma State (+ UCF). The next weekend, Michigan heads down to Durham, NC, for a tournament at preseason #13 Duke, with Army and Northern Kentucky also at that event. Michigan then has a mid-week game against UNC (who are usually decent), before going to Lexington for a tournament against preseason #20 Kentucky + Drake. Michigan also faces Kent State there, which is the beginning of four meetings with the Golden Flashes, continuing for a three game set the weekend of March 12-13 when the Maize & Blue return to Alumni. That concludes the non-conference portion of the schedule, save from the usual mid-week MAC.

The B1G schedule sees Michigan bring Nebraska, PSU, OSU, and Minnesota to Ann Arbor, while they go to Northwestern, Maryland, and Wisconsin, with the traditional home & home with MSU. Having four home series is nice, as is getting Minnesota at home, though it seems like Northwestern is the bigger obstacle to Michigan winning a fourth-straight B1G title. The purple and black lose talented two-way player Morgan Newport, but return basically everyone else from last season's team, which gives them a high floor in addition to whatever impact pieces have joined the roster. The Gophers were the B1G runners up last season, but they did lose pitcher Amber Fiser, and a pair of star hitters. 

I don't really see anyone else challenging. There was a fairly significant gap in the quality of team between Michigan and Northwestern/Minnesota last season (Wolverines went 6-2 against those teams last year), and then another sizable gap between Northwester/Minnesota and the next group. Ohio State and Wisconsin have been decent in the past, but never real conference contenders, while the reaminder of the teams on Michigan's schedule were straight up bad last season and have been for years. If Michigan considers itself a true contender for the WCWS, they should have no trouble taking care of business and claiming another B1G crown. The only exception to that statement I could envision developing is if Northwestern bounces back to 2019 caliber and is a real national player again. 

 

If you want to make OKC, you really need to host a regional like in 2019 [JD Scott]

The Elephant in the Room: THE SELECTION COMMITTEE 

The last two times that Michigan has gone before the almighty selection committee, they were dealt an extremely unfavorable hand. In 2019, Michigan was given the 15th seed, which felt about right given their resume, but somehow drew James Madison into their regional. JMU was a far better team than the committee's ranking suggested. Meanwhile Northwestern, who were a worse seed than Michigan (#16), got a cakewalk draw in their regional and thus advanced to the Supers, while Michigan lost in a heartbreaking three game series of intense, high quality softball. There's no other way to describe 2019 than that the selection committee screwed Michigan tremendously that year. 

In 2021, Michigan felt they should have been a top 16 seed but weren't. I tend to agree with the committee there in disrespecting the B1G. Michigan had only played a conference schedule, the B1G is just not a power softball conference, and last year was a down year for the league. All that said, the Michigan that rolled into the tournament, with Taylor Bump hitting out of her mind and two national-caliber pitchers, was one of the best 16 teams in America, they just didn't have the resume to back it up. 

The problem was not in the seed (or lack thereof) the committee gave them, but again in the draw. The Wolverines were drawn into the Seattle Regional with Washington, who I felt was pretty clearly better than the #16 seed, with a veteran lineup of hitters and a legit ace who had made the WCWS three straight years prior to 2021. Washington was a way, way better team than you expect to see when you play the supposed #16 team in America. Michigan still probably should have won that regional given the way it played out and the lead they had in the winner-take-all G3, but man that's a really bad draw. 

[JD Scott]

So much of whether you make the Supers or the WCWS comes down to your draw. If 2019 Michigan is handed Northwestern's draw that year, they'd have made the Supers. Likewise, even if Michigan had beaten Washington last year, their chance of making the WCWS was 1%, because they'd have had to play #1 Oklahoma in the Supers, who eventually won the national title and has a case to be the greatest team in NCAA Softball history (finished 56-4, nine hitters with an OPS >1.000!!!!!!!!!!!). If Michigan wants to reach its dream of returning to OKC, they are going to need to get a moderately favorable draw from the selection committee. 

It's impossible to guarantee getting a dealt a favorable hand obviously, but if Michigan wants to be set up with a shot to make the WCWS again, they likely need to host a regional, and probably be in the 9-13 seed range at the minimum. Getting in that 9-13 seed range for a team like Michigan, who play in a weaker conference, requires a very strong non-conference performance, which is why this first month of the season is so crucial. You get eight games against preseason top 20 teams, and I think you have to go 4-4 in those games, and hopefully notch a win against one of OKST/Florida/FSU. Beyond that you need to be close to perfect against the mid-level fringe tourney teams like UNC/USF/UCF, while also avoiding a really ugly loss.

Doing so would put you at around 17-5 exiting the non-conference portion. I think the target should be 21-2 or 20-3 in conference, with a perfect record agains the mid-week MAC teams. Doing all that I have just cited would leave Michigan at 42-8 or 43-7 at the conclusion of the regular season. With a handful of quality wins in hand, I think that should be enough to get the Wolverines into that 9-13 seed range. But playing in a conference like the B1G, there is little margin for error. 

 

General Feelingsball 

So now that we've spelled out what would need to happen for Michigan to achieve their dreams, is it possible? In a couple words, I think there's a shot. Throughout the offseason I was moderately down on Michigan Softball, perhaps because of how painfully last season ended, but the news of losing Lou Allan to the portal was not encouraging either. However, after beginning to dig more fully into the roster, I'm far more optimistic than I was previously and have quite a bit of hope for this team. 

The pitching should be as good as last season, which is to say good enough to go pretty far in the NCAA Tournament. The way things fell apart in the deciding game of the regional was unfortunate, but Michigan's pitching had held a very good Washington team to two runs in the first two games of the regional combined prior to that. Even if Storako and Beaubien don't get any better, they're a good enough ace tandem to get you into the Supers at least. There also should be a better #3 option this year, which ideally wouldn't be asked to do much in big games, but also it would've been nice to have a viable third option once Beaubien and Storako were both in meltdown mode in the regional last year. 

Carol Hutchins is trying to return this program to its mid-2010s glory [JD Scott]

Offensively, I look at it like the following. You're (hopefully) deleting five hitters from the lineup off last season's team: Natalia Rodriguez, Haley Hoogenraad, Sierra Kersten, Julia Jimenez, and Lou Allan. Of those five, only Lou was an above average hitter. That one is no doubt a tough loss (especially the power), but the OPS clips of the other four were .674, .570, .548, and .751. You're subbing in two players in Burkhardt and Livingston who have career OPS numbers of .851 and .836, with Burkhardt having the potential to be more in the .900/1.000 range. Those are two big upgrades, if you're comparing them to Jimenez/HH. 

If you can find a way to get Lexi Voss into the lineup, that's already an upgrade over Kersten, which we saw last season. The remaining two spots could be plugged by any number of players, but they all have considerable potential, whether it's Widra or Carricaburu or Tholl. Replacing Allan is difficult, but it's quite possible that Michigan subs in better hitters than they had last season for the other four holes in the lineup. Plus, someone like Esman could make the jump.

Last year Michigan was really a three person offense, as only three regulars had an OPS above .750. You lost one of the three hitters, and finding a 1:1 replacement will be difficult, but there's reason to believe that the 2022 offense will be a more balanced offense, one that can put forth six or seven .800+ OPS hitters (Blair/Bump/Esman/Burkhardt/Livingston + Voss?/Tholl?/Widra?). If Blair and Bump are your huge stars (maybe someone else pulls through to be a third), but then you also have four other good hitters behind that, it's probably a better outcome than just having three all-or-nothing boppers like last season. 

Here's a way to visualize what I just wrote: 

Your impact stars are assumed to be the same (although more improvement would be great!). You have clear upgrades in a few spots, and there are reasons to believe that a 5* blue chip like Annabelle Widra can be a better hitter than Natalia Rodriguez, who was a total offensive non-factor. Moreover, I'm assuming that Esman shows us improvement in her second full season. The only place of clear downgrade is losing Lou Allan and plugging in an unknown entity in that slot, but I do have hope that someone can step in there and at least be a decent hitter. 

As a whole, that's a team that I think is better than last year. Last year's team was good enough to make the Supers with a slightly better draw, and would've had to shot to make OKC if they had a considerably better draw. I think this 2022 squad has a real shot to make a big tourney run, but so much of whether the path to do so is viable hinges on what they do the first month or so of the season. 

 

A Quick Preview of this Weekend 

That's more or less all I've got for you for this preview. The season kicks off this weekend with the annual Tampa tournament at the USF Softball Complex. Michigan plays five games in three days against Illinois State, UMKC, USF, and Florida. The Gators are the marquee matchup, but even the two lesser teams at this event were solid midmajor squads last year, so Michigan can't expect to roll in and just have their way. You want to go 4-1 this weekend, with 5-0 obviously being the dream. 3-2 is a disappointment. Florida is not a must-win game, but boy it would be nice to notch a marquee win in the first weekend like in 2020.

Only one game is scheduled to be available for video consumption, which is the USF game on ESPN+, but WCBN Sports is covering all five games, providing free audio broadcasts on their YouTube Channel. As an alum of WCBN, I can guarantee they will provide high quality softball coverage of this weekend's games. Michigan Softball's Twitter will be sending out live tweets as well.