meghan beaubien

It's been a little while since I last wrote about softball- the rush of postseason basketball and hockey got in the way. The last update was March 10th and at the time, Michigan was 13-6 and coming off the most difficult portion of the schedule. Though they had fallen a bit short of the ideal scenario, the team was still in discussion for being able to host a regional, if they were close to perfect the rest of the way, something that the team has done routinely in past years.

Unfortunately, that has not happened. In the past five or so weeks, Michigan has gone 14-7 against a slate of middling opponents, submarining any chance of hosting a regional and also tanking hopes for a fourth-straight regular season B1G championship. What went wrong? And what is a realistic hope the rest of the way? Let's investigate: 

A Quick Recap

We said at the time of the last update that softball was returning home for the easy portion of the schedule. The team handled the first week or so of cupcake opponents, sweeping Kent State at home and pitching shutouts of both Oakland and Toledo, before run-ruling Western Michigan. There was one more easy MAC opponent on the schedule in Miami (OH) before B1G play got going and that game represented the beginning of this current spiral. I will admit that the RedHawks are one of the best teams in the MAC and thus are not completely downtrodden, but it is still a game that Michigan should not, under any circumstances, be losing... let alone by four runs. Alex Storako was slapped around for four runs in 1+ inning, and Lauren Derkowski didn't do much better, while the Michigan bats only mustered three runs in a dispiriting 7-3 loss. 

The Wolverines then welcomed Nebraska to Alumni Field, who has been one of the NCAA's better hitting teams this season, and the Huskers affirmed their place as a legitimate B1G contender by sweeping the Wolverines. The series only lasted two gams due to weather, but Nebraska put up 10 runs in those two games, while continuing to pitch well and emerged with a pair of victories. A three game skid after already dropping 6 games in the non-conference pushed Michigan to the brink in terms of national implications, and that's before you remember they were then staring down a battle with #9 Northwestern in Evanston. 

[JD Scott]

Michigan had a 3-1 lead going into the 6th inning against NU in the first game before Alex Storako allowed back-to-back solo homers to tie it, and the 'Cats eventually won the game in extras. The next day's game was suspended by weather and resumed on the Sunday of that weekend. Again Michigan carried a two-run lead into the sixth thanks to timely hitting from Kristina Burkhardt and Sierra Kersten, and again homers off of Storako blew it, as a Rachel Lewis three-run blast gave Northwestern the winning runs. The Wolverines did salvage the final game with an 8-3 win, but by this point Michigan had begun B1G play 0-4, and in most years, 4 losses is too many to win the conference. 

Things were already bad at this juncture, but they have not gotten that much better. Against B1G opponents who Michigan typically makes easy work of like Penn State and Maryland, the Wolverines only managed to take two out of three games. They dropped the final game to the Nittany Lions 3-2 and the first game to Maryland by an ugly 5-1 score. In most years, winning the conference requires being perfect against every team not in the upper echelon, and then maybe dropping a game or two to teams in the upper echelon. Michigan dropped four against the top tier and has been far from perfect against the middle tier. As of now, they sit 7-6 in the B1G, six games back of Nebraska for first with only nine games to play. Not happening this year. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Where things went wrong]

It's been about a month since this site last checked in on Michigan Softball, which came in early February, just before the start of the season. That was our season preview piece and in it I opined that much of what the team hopes to accomplish in 2022 hinges on what was going to happen in the early season non-conference portion of the schedule. We are now through the meat of that section of the schedule, so I felt that this week would be a good time to check in and see what's going on with the squad and how they fared in a Softball Roundup:

How Michigan Fared 

The Wolverines got the season started in Tampa and it was pretty disappointing. Though they did go 3-2, Michigan was unable to beat either of the good teams there, USF or Florida, putting up just one combined run in the two games. The USF game was sullied by a strange decision to start freshman Lauren Derkowski in the circle rather than one of Michigan's ace pitchers. Derkowski gave up three runs in the first and Michigan was never able to dig back in the game against superstar Georgina Corrick. 

In Clearwater, Michigan banked a couple quality wins against LSU and UCF, but were dismissed easily by Oklahoma State. The chance for a marquee win against FSU was again damaged by the decision to start Derkowski, who gave up an early run that ended up being crucial in a 2-1 loss. Things began to turn for the better once Michigan headed down to North Carolina, as they were able to split a two game set with a very good Duke team, and then pounded Northern Kentucky (x2), Elon, and UNC. The bats continued to heat up in Lexington, with Michigan slapping #10 Kentucky around in the first game, before dropping the second to the Wildcats as UK battered Meghan Beaubien. Michigan did beat Kent State and Drake, which concluded their early season non-conference tournament portion of the schedule. 

As the Wolverines head home for this weekend's series, they sit at 13-6 overall. In the four major softball polls, they are ranked between 15-19, a pretty consensus view of this team. It's a little below expectations, but because of reasons I will explain in the next section, there is reason to be more optimistic than that ranking, as the offense is rounding into shape and Michigan has the biggest asset any NCAA Softball team can have: an unbelievably dominant starting pitcher. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: SoftballBullets]

The last time we saw Michigan Softball, well, it hurt. A lot. The Wolverines were out in the Seattle Regional in the deciding game three against host Washington, with the winner advancing to the Super Regionals. Michigan held a 5-1 lead heading to the bottom of the third, just 15 outs from their first ticket to the Supers since 2016. They had their ace, Alex Storako, in the circle and had to love their position. Then it all fell apart. Storako gave up two in the bottom of the third, and then the fourth saw seven Husky runs and a solid Michigan lead turned into a heartbreaking Washington blowout, 10-5. Season over. 

The good news is that a new season means new beginnings. A fresh start. Rebirth. Much of last year's core has returned for another shot at a deep NCAA Tournament run, but there are plenty of new pieces too. And if the preliminary reporting from The Michigan Daily is to be believed, this iteration of Michigan Softball is hungrier than ever to return to Oklahoma City and the Women's College World Series. Do they have the parts? And what would reaching this team's goals require? I have you covered with the 2022 Michigan Softball season preview: 

The Roster  

Pitching 

The strength of this Michigan team, as it has been for so many years now, is pitching. Michigan has a pair of senior aces returning, Alex Storako and Meghan Beaubien. Beaubien's storied Michigan career is well documented, a superstar pitcher from the time she arrived in Ann Arbor during the 2018 season. She's never had an ERA above 2.00 and last season was a classic MB year, 1.24 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, with 9.3 K/7 innings. Beaubien is dependable and strikingly consistent, and the question is whether the BeauBot has one last gear to reach in her 5th season. She has grown much less over her career than her counterpart Storako, so it does feel a little unlikely that Beaubien suddenly gets a lot better, but here's for hoping. What she is now is enough. 

2021 was the story of Alex Storako, who made The Jump. In 2019 and 2020, Storako showed flashes via her high strikeout numbers, but was also inconsistent and highly vulnerable to scalding hard contact. In 2021 she transformed into a monster who passed Beaubien on the depth chart to become the #1. Her 1.05 ERA and 22 wins are impressive enough before you see the strikeout numbers: 270 Ks in 146 innings (!). That 12.9 K/7 clip led the NCAA and helped make her the unanimous B1G Pitcher of the Year and a 2nd team All-American. Storako fixed her hard contact problem and mowed down the competition with ease the whole season (including Washington in G1 of that Regional Final) until it unraveled against in the aforementioned G3. That should provide enough motivation for Storako to put together another dominant campaign as a senior. 

Meghan Beaubien and sunglasses, name a more iconic duo [JD Scott]

Together, Storako and Beaubien should give Michigan elite pitching in every single big game. In NCAA softball, you need two aces to have a shot to reach the WCWS, and ideally you should have a third pitcher who may not be an ace, but can help you out in a pinch. Michigan didn't have that last year, as Sarah Schaefer was never able to develop into a reliable arm over her four years with the Wolverines, and former 5* Chandler Dennis massively disappointed due to injuries and inconsistency. Both have opted to exit the program. 

Hope for a reliable #3 thus comes from the freshman class that boasts three arms. Lauren Derkowski and Emerson Aiken are both freshmen who are elite recruits. Derkowski was the #16 national recruit by Extra Innings softball, while Aiken was the #26 recruit and a High School All-American in 2021. Fellow freshman Annabelle Widra is an elite recruit and a two-way player who can hit and pitch, but I would expect Michigan to use her primarily as a hitter (a la young Tera Blanco). Lauren Esman is also a two-way player but has thrown just two innings in her Michigan career. 

Derkowski, Aiken, and Widra are the future of the Michigan rotation starting in 2023 and so it'll be crucial to see one of them step up. Between three 5* prospects, the odds at least one of them is ready to be an impact arm seems pretty high. Michigan doesn't need any of them to be an ace so long as Storako and Beaubien are healthy, but they need one of them to give them 60-80 quality innings (or I suppose the three could combine for that many). I feel pretty comfortable about the probability that it comes to fruition. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Much more preview!]