softball preview

Well, it's a new season for Michigan Softball. After a disastrous (by the program's standards) season that saw the Wolverines miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly three decades, the page has been turned and year #2 of the Bonnie Tholl Era is upon us. It's a new team, albeit one with a lot of familiar faces. The season is getting underway at 10am (broadcast for the opener can be found here), so it's time to break Team 47 down and give them a proper introduction: 

The Roster

Pitching 

While the 2023 season represented a steep decline in pitching compared to the 2022 or 2021 teams, it was still a stronger area of the team than the hitting side. The team ERA of 2.91 was not what you want if you hope to be a high level competitor in NCAA Softball, but the good news is total continuity. Everyone is back and they've added through the recruiting class as well. The team's arguable best player is Lauren Derkowski, who went from a depth piece as a freshman to the team's #1 pitcher as a sophomore. Derkowski wasn't quite ready to be a high-major ace, but she is a pretty good pitcher, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. Last year represented a big step forward in her development and if this Michigan team is to get up off the mat, they're going to need Derkowski to take that next step towards ace status. I think it's possible because I believe in Jen Brundage and the development curve for Derkowski has been following a neat schedule. 

Arguably a bigger need than Derkowski taking the next step is shoring up the pitching situation outside of her. Last year's #2 was Jessica LeBeau, a Kent State transfer who was a good but not incredible MAC pitcher and more or less looked like that after up-transferring to the B1G. Bonnie Tholl spoke at media day about getting LeBeau's form and confidence back to where she was in the first half of last season, which is a decent point. LeBeau hung in there against a swath of good and great teams in the non-conference, but then posted basically similar results against much weaker competition in the B1G, when you would have liked to see her bring the ERA down during that portion of the year. Her final two B1G outings, against Indiana and Minnesota, were particularly ugly and helped drive the nail in the coffin on Michigan's season. 

[Bill Rapai]

Getting LeBeau back to a more usable option is a goal for the staff, but I don't particularly think she'll ever have the chops to be an ideal #2. At the very least, Michigan needs to get her some insurance, because last year the depth beyond the 1-2 at the top of the rotation was abhorrent. UNC transfer Hannah George and one-time elite recruit Emerson Aiken contributed nothing out of the pen, as the two combined to allow 23 earned runs and 44 H in 23.2 IP last season. If Michigan had to go to either of those two, it was over and the game went from bad to worse. I don't really know if there's much hope for improvement... theoretically better results are possible given George's past at UNC and Aiken's recruiting profile but we're multiple seasons removed from that now and they drew scant mention at media day. 

More likely is the help comes from true freshman Erin Hoehn, out of Poseyville, IN near Evansville. Hoehn is listed as a two-way player, but she was mentioned in the pitching conversation by Tholl in her press conference as someone who could compete and add to the pitching staff as a true freshman. So, it seems like she'll get her shot. Hoehn was a touted recruit, for what it's worth, a 2023 MaxPreps First Team All-American and 3x Indiana All-State first team honoree. She posted a career 0.79 ERA in high school, so the credentials look good, but tough to know until she competes in the circle in a collegiate game. 

I should round this out by mentioning that Maddie Erickson is listed as a potential pitcher on the roster but we never saw her pitch last season, even while George and Aiken were getting teed-off on in mop up duty. Erickson seems poised to play a larger role in the offense, so at this point, it doesn't appear that she factors in majorly in the pitching equation. But you never know. In a perfect world Derkowski takes a leap forward towards ace territory, LeBeau is a bit better assimilated to B1G softball and is an okay second fiddle, while Hoehn comes in and adds effective innings, allowing her and LeBeau to share the remaining non-Derkowski innings based on matchups and daily effectiveness, limiting the George/Aiken exposure. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, schedule, big picture]

The last time we saw Michigan Softball, well, it hurt. A lot. The Wolverines were out in the Seattle Regional in the deciding game three against host Washington, with the winner advancing to the Super Regionals. Michigan held a 5-1 lead heading to the bottom of the third, just 15 outs from their first ticket to the Supers since 2016. They had their ace, Alex Storako, in the circle and had to love their position. Then it all fell apart. Storako gave up two in the bottom of the third, and then the fourth saw seven Husky runs and a solid Michigan lead turned into a heartbreaking Washington blowout, 10-5. Season over. 

The good news is that a new season means new beginnings. A fresh start. Rebirth. Much of last year's core has returned for another shot at a deep NCAA Tournament run, but there are plenty of new pieces too. And if the preliminary reporting from The Michigan Daily is to be believed, this iteration of Michigan Softball is hungrier than ever to return to Oklahoma City and the Women's College World Series. Do they have the parts? And what would reaching this team's goals require? I have you covered with the 2022 Michigan Softball season preview: 

The Roster  

Pitching 

The strength of this Michigan team, as it has been for so many years now, is pitching. Michigan has a pair of senior aces returning, Alex Storako and Meghan Beaubien. Beaubien's storied Michigan career is well documented, a superstar pitcher from the time she arrived in Ann Arbor during the 2018 season. She's never had an ERA above 2.00 and last season was a classic MB year, 1.24 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, with 9.3 K/7 innings. Beaubien is dependable and strikingly consistent, and the question is whether the BeauBot has one last gear to reach in her 5th season. She has grown much less over her career than her counterpart Storako, so it does feel a little unlikely that Beaubien suddenly gets a lot better, but here's for hoping. What she is now is enough. 

2021 was the story of Alex Storako, who made The Jump. In 2019 and 2020, Storako showed flashes via her high strikeout numbers, but was also inconsistent and highly vulnerable to scalding hard contact. In 2021 she transformed into a monster who passed Beaubien on the depth chart to become the #1. Her 1.05 ERA and 22 wins are impressive enough before you see the strikeout numbers: 270 Ks in 146 innings (!). That 12.9 K/7 clip led the NCAA and helped make her the unanimous B1G Pitcher of the Year and a 2nd team All-American. Storako fixed her hard contact problem and mowed down the competition with ease the whole season (including Washington in G1 of that Regional Final) until it unraveled against in the aforementioned G3. That should provide enough motivation for Storako to put together another dominant campaign as a senior. 

Meghan Beaubien and sunglasses, name a more iconic duo [JD Scott]

Together, Storako and Beaubien should give Michigan elite pitching in every single big game. In NCAA softball, you need two aces to have a shot to reach the WCWS, and ideally you should have a third pitcher who may not be an ace, but can help you out in a pinch. Michigan didn't have that last year, as Sarah Schaefer was never able to develop into a reliable arm over her four years with the Wolverines, and former 5* Chandler Dennis massively disappointed due to injuries and inconsistency. Both have opted to exit the program. 

Hope for a reliable #3 thus comes from the freshman class that boasts three arms. Lauren Derkowski and Emerson Aiken are both freshmen who are elite recruits. Derkowski was the #16 national recruit by Extra Innings softball, while Aiken was the #26 recruit and a High School All-American in 2021. Fellow freshman Annabelle Widra is an elite recruit and a two-way player who can hit and pitch, but I would expect Michigan to use her primarily as a hitter (a la young Tera Blanco). Lauren Esman is also a two-way player but has thrown just two innings in her Michigan career. 

Derkowski, Aiken, and Widra are the future of the Michigan rotation starting in 2023 and so it'll be crucial to see one of them step up. Between three 5* prospects, the odds at least one of them is ready to be an impact arm seems pretty high. Michigan doesn't need any of them to be an ace so long as Storako and Beaubien are healthy, but they need one of them to give them 60-80 quality innings (or I suppose the three could combine for that many). I feel pretty comfortable about the probability that it comes to fruition. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Much more preview!]