Despite defeating Penn State Friday night by a 5-3 score, the Maize & Blue were unable to complete the sweep Saturday and fell to the Nittany Lions by a 4-2 margin in Hockey Valley. The disappointing defeat resulted in Michigan dropping one notch in the Pairwise to #16, as many of the teams last week's rooting guide was cheering against ended up winning. This development is significant, as only 16 teams will qualify for the NCAA D1 Hockey Tournament and practically speaking, #16 is out of the picture. There are six auto bids given to the playoff champion of each conference and this season the autobids from both Atlantic Hockey and the new CCHA won't be ranked in the top 16 in Pairwise. Thus, only the top 14 would currently get in and additional chaos could chop that number down to 13. Michigan has work to do. 

 

Pairwise Comparison Ratings - As of February 20/24

Michigan sits 16th in the Pairwise, a notch below UMass (who they saw in Amherst in October) and just a bit behind two other teams they saw in the non-con, St. Cloud (13) and Providence (12). Colorado College is up to 11th, leaping well over Michigan last weekend thanks to a triumphant weekend that saw the Tigers sweep North Dakota, both by blowout margins. The B1G continues to have three teams firmly in the picture, with Minnesota up to #9 and MSU/Wisconsin vying for a one seed. Michigan is definitely not out of the hunt, but they need to start winning games consistently, and soon. Getting some help this week wouldn't hurt either. 

 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the rooting guide]

 

 

Big 10 Hockey Standings - As of Feb 20/24

 

 

With Michigan's split at Penn State last weekend, they remained in 5th place in the Big Ten Standings 3 points behind Notre Dame who took 4 out of 6 points from Minnesota. This weekend, Michigan faces off against Notre Dame for a pair of games at Yost. The start times for both games are not the normal 7pm, as Friday's game is an 8pm puck drop and Saturday's opening faceoff is slated for 6:30pm. Both games will be televised on Big Ten Network.

 

If Michigan earns at least 5 out of the 6 available points. they will clinch at least 4th place in the Big Ten regular season standings which will give them home ice advantage for the Big Ten Quarterfinal Weekend. This weekend's games will complete Notre Dame's regular season schedule while Michigan will still have a 2-game series next weekend in Minnesota against the Gophers, who are idle this weekend. Without trying to get too far ahead, if Michigan can get 5 or 6 points this weekend, that will put them within striking distance of Minnesota to try and overtake them for 3rd place in the final weekend of the regular season. It will require a very hot close to the season to leap over Minnesota but it is doable due to the head-to-head, but it all starts this weekend. 

 

 

This Weekend's Games of Significance - Rooting Guide

Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking

 

Big Ten Games

Friday - Ohio State (PW #29) at Michigan State (PW #4) - 7:00pm - BTN+

Saturday - Ohio State (PW #29) at Michigan State (PW #4) - 6:00pm - BTN+

 

Friday - Wisconsin (PW #6) at Penn State (PW #24) - 7:00pm - BTN+

Saturday  - Wisconsin (PW #6) at Penn State (PW #24) - 6:00pm - BTN+

Neither of these series will have an impact on where Michigan finishes in the Big Ten standings, but after last weekend's big upsets of Ohio State beating Wisconsin twice, it will be interesting to see who can generate momentum as playoffs approach. It will also be interesting to see how Wisconsin rebounds after last weekend's debacle as a continued slide against Penn State could result in Michigan State clinching the Big Ten regular season championship before their big matchup next weekend. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Hockey East Games

Friday - New Hampshire (PW #17) at Massachusetts (PW #15) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Saturday - Massachusetts (PW #15) at New Hampshire (PW #17) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

This is the series that will have the greatest impact in regards to seeing Michigan move up in the Pairwise. Of course, the Wolverines have to take care of their own business. The best thing that could happen in this two game home-and-home matchup is that both games go to overtime, and the home team wins each night. The way Pairwise mathematics work is home wins and road losses are weighted by 0.8 while road wins and home losses are weighted by a factor of 1.2. OT wins are counted as 2/3 of a win and 1/3 of a loss. This is the first meeting of the year between these two teams who sit tied for 5th in Hockey East. Both teams have almost identical records this season so it should be a tight series.

 

Saturday - Providence (PW #12) at UMass-Lowell (PW #34) - 6:00pm - ESPN+

In a bit of a college hockey anomaly, both teams only have this one game scheduled this weekend. This is the 3rd and final meeting of the regular season between these clubs. In late January, Providence won the first game in Lowell 7-2 and the next night in Providence, the Friars squeaked out a 4-3 OT win. The River Hawks have had tough year to say the least, as they have only 8 wins in 30 games compared to Providence's 16 in 29 games. This matchup looks like a mismatch on paper, but last weekend's OSU upset victories over Wisconsin are 'why we play the games'. Michigan should cheer for UMass-Lowell for obvious reasons. 

 

ECAC Games

Friday - Cornell (PW #14) at Clarkson (PW #36) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Saturday - Cornell (PW #14) at St. Lawrence (PW #54) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Cornell is probably the hottest team in the country that nobody knows about. Since the beginning of January, the Big Red have gone 12-0-1 and have not lost a game in regulation since December 2nd. Cornell is playing back-to-back road games against two different opponents who they've already faced once in back-to-back home games earlier in February. Clarkson enters the game in 4th place in the ECAC, 6 points behind Cornell and St. Lawrence is in 7th, but showed they can compete against top teams when they defeated Quinnipiac 3-1 on February 9th. Cheer for Cornell to finally cool off and drop some games this weekend. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

NCHC Games

Friday - Colorado College (PW #11) at Omaha (PW #18) - 8:00pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday  - Colorado College (PW #11) at Omaha (PW #18) - 8:00pm - NCHC.TV

Colorado College is another team on a massive heater as they've been climbing up the Pairwise in leaps and bounds. They are 8-0-2 in their last 10 games and their last regulation loss was against the Gophers in Minnesota on January 8th. The Tigers come into this series after two convincing wins over North Dakota last weekend.  They swept all 4 games against NoDak this season for the first ever season sweep in CC history. Omaha is coming off a bye last weekend and although they are sitting in 6th place in the NCHC, they are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Seeing Omaha cool off CC would be a boost for Michigan.

 

Friday - Western Michigan (PW #10) at St. Cloud State (PW #13) - 8:00pm - CBS Sports Network

Saturday - Western Michigan (PW #10) at St. Cloud State (PW #13) - 7:00pm - NCHC.TV

It's not often that the Wolverines would be pulling for the Broncos, but this is a series that if Western can take both games would help Michigan, who played St. Cloud earlier this season. The Wolverines defeated the Huskies in the first game, then dropped a shoot-out decision in the second. Western comes in to the series with fresh legs as they had a bye last week after taking 4 of 6 points from Omaha the previous weekend. St. Cloud has won 3 of their last 4 including a 2 game sweep in Miami last weekend in Miami.