This past weekend was the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, held a bit later than normal due to the COVID-induced NHL schedule, but it still happened, and well, uh, if you missed it, here's a small summary: 

Michigan had made hockey HISTORY with 4️⃣ of the top 5️⃣ picks in the 2021 #NHLDraftDay #GoBlue〽️ #ProBlue pic.twitter.com/7WseEQUXJP

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) July 24, 2021

Yeah, that happened. Michigan Hockey landed four of the top five picks in the NHL Entry Draft, something we thought was a small possibility, but I myself didn't think was likely entering draft day. And when combined with incoming freshman Mackie Samoskevich going 24th overall to the Florida Panthers, Michigan became the first NCAA team to ever produce five first rounders in a single NHL draft. It's been awhile since I wrote a Michigan-hockey specific piece, and since we're currently in the summer doldrums, I thought I'd put together this article looking at who each player was picked by, what it means for their NHL futures, and what it all means for Michigan Hockey's 2021-22 season. We'll go player by player for this: 

Owen Power

The towering defenseman went 1st overall to the Buffalo Sabres, the first Michigan player to ever be picked 1st overall in the NHL Draft and just the sixth Michigan athlete to go 1st in any of the big four (NHL/NBA/MLB/NFL) drafts, joining Jake Long (2007), Chris Webber (1993), Cazzie Russell (1966), Elmer Madar (1947), and Tom Harmon (1941) in that rare company. First and foremost we should send our sincere condolences to Owen for being picked by the Sabres, a franchise that has been stuck in a perpetual rebuild for nearly a decade now and has a long track record of messing up their prospect development. It's definitely not the team I would want to be drafted by, but Power will join fellow young defenseman Rasmus Dahlin on Buffalo's blue line and the Sabres seem to be accumulating lots of young talent and future draft capital to help put a core together, so it may not be as bleak of a future as it seems in the present. Especially if Buffalo can land, say, Shane Wright in next year's NHL Draft. That said, it's hard to trust the Sabres to play any of their cards right when we've just watched them repeatedly go bankrupt at the poker table. 

The Sabres bet high on Power's potential to develop further as an offensive player in drafting him at the 1OA slot. Pretty much everyone (your author included) sees Power as a future top four defenseman in the NHL who can handle tough defensive assignments and munch minutes. He was arguably the draft's safest prospect and in a year with tons of COVID-related scouting uncertainty, going safe with such a high pick seemed optimal. The question is about Owen's NHL upside. Part of the reason he was picked 1st is that he's tall and there's nothing that Hockey Men love more than Big Tall Defensemen, seen this weekend in Philadelphia paying a king's ransom for Rasmus Ristolainen, a defenseman who is objectively awful at hockey, but apparently it doesn't matter because Risto is tall. Same logic here. No matter how Owen develops in the NHL, no one will ever be able to take away the fact he's tall (unless Rick Moranis still has his electromagnetic shrinking machine) and for some reason, to a great many institutional NHL scouts, that has some special value. 

At this juncture it appears very likely that Power will return to Michigan for this coming season. He was listed on Michigan's 2021-22 hockey roster that was discreetly slipped out to the public sometime in the last few weeks, which shows all of Michigan's freshmen from last year returning (and with their grade years all bumped up one). Nearly all Internet Scouts who I follow and interact with agree that Power will benefit from playing one more year in the NCAA, and since Buffalo appears to be stripping their roster to tank for Wright in the 2022 Draft by trading several key players, they have no logical reason to rush Power to the show. In fact, the incentive is the opposite direction, to keep him off the roster, if the goal is to lose as much as possible next year. Scouts are most looking to see a more dynamic element in Power's game, an ability to rack up points and drive offense from the back-end. With Cam York gone, there will be a hole on Michigan's top PP unit, and perhaps Power could try and fill it. Power himself has indicated a return to Michigan was more likely than not and given the way Buffalo is behaving as a franchise, it seems extremely probable at this point in time that #22 suits up in the Maize and Blue again, though I'm not sure when we will know officially. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Lots more draft picks]

Meet the first ever Seattle Kraken draft pick [James Coller]

Matty Beniers

Going right after Power was Beniers, picked 2nd by the newly formed Seattle Kraken, making him the first ever Kraken NHL Entry Draft pick. In going 2nd after Power, it was the first time that two players from the same team were picked 1-2 in the NHL Draft since 1969, when Réjean Houle and Marc Tardif went 1-2 from the Montreal Junior Canadiens. Beniers went 2nd overall for many of the same reasons Power went 1st: he's a safe, highly projectable prospect. Nobody thinks that Beniers won't have a long NHL career, killing penalties, providing some offense, and doing little things to help his team win hockey games. Like Power, there are questions over offensive upside (I see him more as a #2 centerman in the NHL versus a true #1), but even two-way #2 centers are quite valuable, which will be demonstrated this week when some team pays Phil Danault a ton of money. 

I've long thought Beniers was the Michigan prospect with the most risk of bolting for the NHL right away, since his performance at the 2021 World Championships indicated he could probably play a fourth line role in the NHL at this very moment. It's unclear to me whether Seattle is the kind of organization to rush him into the league, though, in part because it's hard to get a read on what the nascent franchise's plan is. The Expansion Draft last Wednesday, while highly entertaining for its use of octopi to reveal draft picks, fish-throwing controversies, washed up Seattle athletes from different sports mispronouncing hockey names, and Shawn Kemp wearing a highly unflattering toddler sized T-Shirt, didn't give us much of a clue as to whether this team is trying to win now or build for the future. They mostly alternated from selecting good players like Jordan Eberle, Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, and Yanni Gourde, to also picking random names who I, a hockey obsessive, have never heard of and cannot verify are actual people. 

What I will say is that Kraken GM Ron Francis is a veteran Hockey Man who has been around the block as a GM before. He doesn't particularly seem like the kind of GM who is going to rush a prospect into the league, especially if that prospect doesn't want to. And luckily, Beniers has long indicated his interest in returning to school for the fall season. I honestly don't know how much Beniers can gain from playing in the NCAA because his game is already so polished, but I certainly won't complain if he is indeed back on the team this fall. And since he's currently listed on the roster, I would say that's more likely than not. 

Luke Hughes 

The third Hughes brother is not yet a Michigan athlete but will be this fall. Hughes played the past season for the USNTDP out in Plymouth and then will be suiting up for the Wolverines in October. Unlike Power and Beniers, since Hughes has never played in college, the chance he doesn't wind up at Michigan in the fall is basically 0%. Luke is a lot like his brother Quinn, who you may remember fondly (if you're thinking of 2017-18) or not as fondly (if you're thinking of 2018-19), both in terms of skillset and playing style. Both have the Hughes Family skating gene, which has blessed all three boys with a simply gorgeous skating stride that allows both to play a free-flowing, swashbuckling offensive style as puck-rushing defensemen. Luke isn't thought to be as creative of a playmaker as Quinn, but while Quinn is 5-10, Luke ended up as 6-2, and as we remember from the Power section, height for defenseman is a sort of arbitrary trump card, which is how Luke went 4th in his draft and Quinn went 7th back in 2018. 

The cool note to Luke Hughes being picked is he was selected by the New Jersey Devils, who happen to currently employ brother Jack as their franchise cornerstone, meaning that within a couple seasons, 2/3 Hughes brothers should be on the same NHL roster. And that's something that Jack seemed to be ecstatic about... maybe a little too excited about. New Jersey is a team that is beginning to exit a rebuild and will need help on their blue line in the future, but there's no one who believes that Luke Hughes, still recovering from a season-ending surgery, is ready for the NHL right now, which is why he will be playing at least one year for Mel Pearson and Michigan starting this fall. 

Columbus chose Kent Johnson as one of their first pieces of their rebuild [James Coller]

Kent Johnson

While I knew Power would go 1OA and Beniers would go somewhere in the top five, and Hughes had a shot to go top five, it was rather surprising to see KJ go 5th overall to the Columbus Blue Jackets. I had heard that some teams had Johnson that high on their board, but he was a rather divisive prospect during the pre-draft process. Some teams had concerns about his pace of play, his size and tendency to get constrained to the perimeter, and his decision-making (all concerns that I harbor, for the record), while others see Johnson's great hands, high-end playmaking skill, and NCAA production this past season and imagine a future Mitch Marner-type player. The Blue Jackets seemed to be one of those latter teams, taking a swing on Johnson and his toolkit at the #5 slot. 

Johnson instantly becomes Columbus' top prospect, as the franchise begins to replenish its devastated farm system and angle towards a rebuild, selling off Seth Jones this weekend after already selling Nick Foligno and David Savard back at the deadline. Very few people believe KJ is ready for the NHL right now, as the most common knock on him by scouts was that he needs to bulk up and learn to handle the NCAA in a more physical manner, before we can begin thinking about him competing physically with NHL players. That, combined with the declining status of the Jackets, makes it all but certain that Johnson will be back with Michigan this fall and again, like Power and Beniers, he was listed on the 2021-22 roster (as expected). Scouts will be looking for Johnson to play more in the middle of the ice and be more engaged defensively this upcoming season. 

Mackie Samoskevich

The fifth piece of the Michigan First Round Fab Five is Samoskevich, the other incoming player besides Hughes in this group. Samoskevich finished off a fabulous career with the Chicago Steel in the USHL and is set to join Michigan this fall. Samo (is this going to be his nickname? Idk but I'm running with it) was projected to be a late first or early second round pick and indeed he went 24th overall to the Panthers, nestling himself in the back-end of the first round. He's seen as a good skating, offensively minded forward who in theory can play both the wing and center, but most scouts seem him as a winger at the next level. I would imagine he gets a shot at both positions in college, but if Michigan returns all of Beecher, Bordeleau, Beniers, and GVW, which they very well might, there won't be much room for Samoskevich to play center during the 2021-22 season. Samoskevich is generally regarded as a longer-term project who will need time to bulk up a bit, sand out his all-around game, and show he can produce at the NCAA level before he gets a crack at the AHL or the NHL, so I'd expect him to be at Michigan for ~2 years minimum, unless he really busts out this coming season. 

Incoming freshman Dylan Duke went to the defending champs [Rena Laverty]

Dylan Duke 

The last name to get picked is Dylan Duke, who was thought to be a mid-second rounder, with the slight chance of going in the first, who apparently killed someone's grandma because he somehow fell all the way to pick 126 in the fourth round. I honestly don't know what to read into that, but most Internet Scouts were begging NHL teams to pick Duke as he tumbled down the board. Duke played last season for the USNTDP, posting 49 points in 50 games, and is viewed as a natural goalscorer who can play in all three zones, bringing with him a good work ethic and a high compete level. If I had to guess why he slipped down the draft board, it would probably be that he's 5-10, yet skating is considered the weakest component of his game, even though generally speaking, smaller guys are supposed to be better skaters. The mix of undersized + average skating is a profile that will scare scouts away and may have been the root of his slide. Regardless, he was picked by a great organization in the Tampa Bay Lightning, and they are not a franchise with a track record of— nor reason to— rush prospects to the NHL. I would expect Duke to play in the top 9 starting this fall and be a 2-4 year program guy. 

Other B1G Names? 

Michigan wasn't the only school to have players go in the first round, though they were the most successful by a mile. Also in the first round were Chaz Lucius, picked 18th by Winnipeg, who is committed to Minnesota, and Corson Ceulemans, picked 25th by Columbus, who is committed to Wisconsin. Boston U and Harvard each added a first rounder themselves, but of the 9 NCAA-destined players to be picked in the first round, over half (5) are Michigan guys. Pretttty good. In the later rounds, Minnesota had a few more guys picked (Matthew Knies, 2nd round; Tristan Broz, 2nd round; Brody Lamb, 4th round), Notre Dame saw Sasha Pastujov (yes, that Pastujov family) picked in the third round and Justin Janicke picked in the seventh round, Penn State had Owen McLaughlin picked in the seventh round, and Wisconsin had Daniel Laatsch picked in the seventh round. 

Outside of the B1G, it was mostly the usual suspects having guys picked, UMass, Boston U, BC, Harvard, Denver, and NoDak. But nobody in America dominated the draft the way Michigan did, in terms of both a high volume of guys picked, but also to have so many players picked so highly. 

Hopefully it means a lot of fun nights at Yost like this ahead [JD Scott]

What does this all mean? 

First and foremost, we're now most of the way through the fated Michigan Hockey Summer and still no one from last year's heralded freshman class has bolted. Given that all of the players are listed on next season's roster currently, the idea of a mass exodus seems extremely unlikely. And frankly, the chance that any of them leave is looking more unlikely by the day. It was on July 28, 2018, that Michigan Hockey Summer more or less ended for that offseason, which is the date Quinn Hughes announced he was coming back. Using that date as a measuring stick for this summer, well, we're nearly already there. However, things are going to be shifted around a bit due to the late draft, but it also gives players less time to make a final decision. Classes start in late August at UMich nowadays, and practices for the team will start sometime around then in September. That gives players basically one month to make a final decision, though realistically, more like a couple weeks. Everyone I've spelled out in this piece seems more likely than not to return, and we've heard next to no rumblings about Brisson, Beecher, or Bordeleau leaving. I know this feels like a Famous Last Words thing to say, as if we're creeping through a house in a horror film and celebrating our safety right before the slasher jumps out from behind the sofa to lop off our heads, but we might just have survived Michigan Hockey Summer unscathed. Yeah, Cam York and Strauss Mann are gone but those were announced a long time ago and seemed extremely likely at the time. Otherwise, the dominoes seem to be falling favorably for Michigan (at the moment). 

If indeed everyone is back, this will be an absurdly talented roster. They would be icing a lineup with seven first round picks out of 19 starters, a second rounder, a third rounder, two fourth rounders, a fifth rounder, and a seventh rounder. That would be 13 out of 19 starters being drafted, and of the six not drafted, all would be either returning All-B1G players or upper classmen with years of college hockey experience, or both. Last year's team was very talented, but also very young. This hypothetical team would have the experience that last year's team lacked (just 4 of 19 starters would be freshmen) and somehow even more talent, as you're adding two more first rounders and two fourth rounders, while subtracting just one drafted guy (Cam York, a first rounder). I won't go much into preview mode, because that will come in late September/early October, but if something resembling this hypothetical roster is indeed the final roster for the 2021-22 season, the bare minimum expectation for this team should be a B1G championship and a #1 seed (ideally the #1 overall seed) in the NCAA Hockey Tournament. 

More broadly, this team goes a long way towards cementing Michigan as the elite college hockey program for NHL talent entering the NCAA. Mel Pearson came into Michigan and immediately hit the recruiting trail hard, inheriting Red recruits like Josh Norris and Quinn Hughes and adding a few band-aid players in the short term, like flipping York from BC. But most of the fruits of his recruiting labor haven't been born out until now. He did a good job of scouting and finding guys like Kent Johnson and Mackie Samoskevich, who eventually blossomed into first round NHL talents, as well as getting a bit lucky that Harvard canceled their 2020-21 season and Matty Beniers fell right into his lap. Now the Death Star has been built, we just have to see whether it can a) obliterate Alderaan and b) remember to cover that exhaust port with a convenient track right to the ship's central core (I never quite understood why the Death Star was designed like that, even as a lifelong Star Wars fan). 

Part of this is sensational recruiting, but part of it is also Michigan re-affirming where it always should be atop the NCAA Hockey pyramid, just now at a time when the NCAA has more NHL talent than ever. Red used to recruit like this relative to other programs, but this degree of NHL talent didn't come through the NCAA back in those days, which is why Mel is setting new records for guys being drafted. The fact is, Michigan should be able to assemble rosters like this on a regular basis. Michigan is one of the most storied programs in college hockey, and in addition to the history, the program has advantages that are the opposite of football. Unlike football, Michigan is located in a talent-rich area: the state of Michigan is the state that accounts for the 2nd most NCAA Hockey players in the country behind only Minnesota. The USNTDP's proximity to Ann Arbor is another recruiting advantage, as is the large alumni base in the NHL that Michigan can fall back on, one that will grow dramatically in the near future.

Another advantage is Ann Arbor's proximity to the Golden Horseshoe in Ontario, where a huge slice of the Canadian population lives. Ontario produces the most NCAA Hockey players of any Canadian province (by far), and being close to the most populous region in Ontario has allowed Michigan to score recruits from the Greater Toronto Area like Eric Ciccolini, Owen Power, and Zach Hyman. Combine all of this with the fabled Michigan Money Cannon and the school's academic reputation that can placate parents, and you begin to understand why Michigan should be this dominant of a recruiting power house in college hockey. 

And of course, we know (unfortunately) from football that winning begets more winning through recruiting. Michigan's continued inability to beat OSU in football is why the gap between the two schools has widened, not narrowed, over the past decade+. While winning in pro sports gets you worse future players through the parity mechanisms leagues have installed like the draft, in collegiate sports is the opposite: winning makes you more attractive for future recruits, thus leading to more talent in the future. If Michigan can meet expectations this year, say by winning a B1G title and making a run to the Frozen Four, and then produce several recognizable NHL names out of this crop of top prospects, it will only lead to kids who are currently 11, 12, 13, wanting to play for Michigan in the future, which will consequently result in more talent-rich rosters down the line. This level of talent Mel has amassed may be hard to top in the future because this is sort of a lightning-in-the-bottle occurrence where everything has gone correctly to lead to this point, but in reality it should represent the dawn of a new era of Michigan hockey having a wide talent advantage over everyone not named Minnesota in the country. Now it's just up to Mel to convert the recruits into wins.