MGoPodcast 11.4: A Hat That Says Nothing Comment Count

Seth September 23rd, 2019 at 7:49 AM

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[After THE JUMP: It's all Brian's fault. All of it.]

1. The Existential Crisis

starts at 1:00

 

If you can't get Jim Harbaugh to work at Michigan what is going to work at Michigan? Ace has an Arby's hat on. Harbaugh's worst team ever relative to expectations. Miss organized Harbaugh. It's incredible that every gamble didn't work out. Michigan since the Indiana game last year has been 14 points under the spread in every game. Why does Michigan not have defensive tackles? It goes back to recruiting two years ago when they're airballing on everybody. Gattis: looks like Michigan took a swing and it was a bad bet. We're stuck with Harbaugh until he's done. He'll have some decent teams and face. How did Harbaugh's track record with quarterbacks evaporate?

2. "Offense"

starts at 26:55

Jon Runyan got 20% as many carries as Charbonnet—we want you to pass but not give up on your running game entirely. And surprise: as soon as you start chucking it to your great receivers the ball starts moving. It seems like Gattis was a shot they had to take and they missed. Ronnie Bell's review was a catch—Mike Peirera said if they called it the other way he would have reversed it to a catch. Mason's fumble: he took two shots directly to the ball. Hooray: Michigan just has the shittiest luck in college football except maybe Northwestern.

3. "Defense"

starts at 39:44

Hot takes of the week reveals Brian is at fault for Michigan football, USA Soccer, Ann Arbor politics, and everything else wrong with this world. The DTs can't hack it, but your chicken salad is treating Jordan Glasgow as a DT? Old Don Brown thing getting exposed again: show man, get man, they run a man beater on 4th down. Basically everything has gone to hell and I'm at peace with it.

4. Around the Big Ten wsg Jamie Mac

starts at 51:50

Indiana struggling on the offensive line, just lost Coy Cronk. Ohio State points, Not THAT Miami was up 5-0 at one point. Art Sitkowski 9.2 YPA hello. Northwestern turned the ball over a bunch to MSU. Nebraska-Illinois how does this happen (Nebraska has our fluck). Brandon Peters was terrible. Maurice Washington left the game (hate to see it). There's no good games any week apparently. Did anyone stay up for the Wazzu game?

MUSIC:

  • “Wise Up”—Aimee Mann
  • “All of My Life”—Kevin Morby
  • “On the Rocks”—The Rural Alberta Advantage
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:

Well he's got a hat, it's not nothing. It's something, a hat that says nothing.

Comments

Njia

September 23rd, 2019 at 8:45 AM ^

Looking at the general level of suck against good-to-great teams over the Harbaugh Era, the head coach has been the one constant. Coordinators, position coaches, and players have all changed. That's not to say that JH, himself, is the root cause (correlation is not causation). But he needs to do some serious, and thorough, self evaluation to find and correct his own deficiencies if he can.

Rather than plan for yet another trip abroad for "the youngsters" during Spring Break in 2020, he should use that time for his own self-improvement. The job he saves may be his own.

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 8:51 AM ^

If we're so bad why not get the young guys in a bit more, particularly at positions that are struggling?  We've been able to get Dylan, Hayes, Mayfield, McGrone, Dax, etc. some snaps.  And, I know you can't give up on this year and positions like o-line need consistency and cohesion, so it's probably not a good idea to rotate them.  But it seems particularly like the interior of the d-line needs to get Hinton and/or Smith some snaps otherwise we're gonna have another Solomon situation on our hands.  Highly recruited guys in today's transfer portal world aren't gonna stick around if they aren't given an opportunity particularly when the guys in front of them are not that great.

mgobaran

September 23rd, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^

Somehow Penn St. won the B1G after losing 49-10 to Michigan in 2016. Michigan will not repeat that, but there at least has to be a way to turn it around a bit here. 

True Blue 9

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^

But see, I think that's the point. There has been literally ZERO evidence in 5 years that Harbaugh is capable of that. He literally hasn't won a single game as an underdog. Not one. 1 win against a top 10 team in 5 years. 

I wish I had faith we could turn it around but beating Illinois, Rutgers, and Indiana isn't turning the season around. Winning out or losing one game would be but I just have zero faith in that happening based on previous results. 

mgobaran

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^

I mean, yeah. No one has a record of beating teams as an underdog until they do it. We should have a lot of opportunities this year! 

At this point, going 2-3 in the Iowa, PSU, ND, MSU and OSU games seems like an improvement over what we saw in Madison. That's probably 2 wins as an underdog, and if we tag a meaningless bowl win on the end, then half the blog will be claiming Michigan as a B1G Favorite and possible playoff team by August 2020. 

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^

Yes, it's possible.  And, I could see Charbonnet come close to Barkley in another year or two if he stays healthy.  And, we have the WRs and our o-line can't be any worse than PSU's in 2016.  But, we don't have a McSorely.  McSorely was accurate, could find secondary WRs, and could scramble and use his legs when necessary.  He was also a good, outspoken, leader.  Shea can't do any of those things.  Also, although Gattis was on that PSU staff, it was not his offense.  Gattis is not Moorehead.  Who knows, maybe we can hire Moorehead if JH still hasn't beaten anyone and Moorhead does some things at MSU in another year or two.

mgobaran

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^

Were people saying Moorhead was a good OC immediately after Michigan killed them? Or that McSorely was a decent QB? From what I recall, it's how that team recovered after getting whopped that changed the narratives of those coaches and players. 

I think there is a path forward here similar to that PSU team. Shea was a very accurate downfield passer last year, just look at any PFF number and he is towards the tops in the B1G. PSU went from a team that couldn't function against a great 2016 Michigan defense to a team that just threw bombs all over the field. Gattis was there to see that transformation, and Gattis/Harbaugh can't ignore that offense came much easier when we threw it up to Collins and Black towards the end of the game. 

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^

Were people saying Moorhead was a good OC immediately after Michigan killed them? Or that McSorely was a decent QB? From what I recall, it's how that team recovered after getting whopped that changed the narratives of those coaches and players.

I don't think so.  PSU barely beat Minnesota the week after UM beat them.  It really wasn't until they beat OSU several weeks later that everyone got excited about PSU.  That was their signature win that boost their confidence.  But, what makes you believe UM will do that?  Just because Gattis was on that staff or Moorhead was also introducing a new offense that year?  That was also McSorely's first year starting as a true sophomore, so he was developing.  Patterson is a senior with lots of experience and is regressing.  I don't see any evidence to suggest UM can do that.

mgobaran

September 23rd, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^

But, what makes you believe UM will do that? 

I laid out my reasons above. Shea is a capable deep thrower, Gattis has been apart of a team that used that strategy to turn around a bleak season before, and Harbaugh saw that become the only way that this offense could move the ball last Saturday. 

That, I believe, is a path forward. I don't know that Michigan will succeed at it or even try it. I don't know that Michigan doesn't figure it out a different way. We've seen us get our butts kicked at the end of the year, and Harbaugh always makes sweeping changes. Maybe an ass kicking at the beginning of the year leads to some midseason change the way a competitive loss wouldn't have. 

This game should provide a whole lot of activation energy to produce some different results down the road.

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^

Shea is a capable deep thrower, Gattis has been apart of a team that used that strategy to turn around a bleak season before, and Harbaugh saw that become the only way that this offense could move the ball last Saturday. 

Did you see Shea's deep throws against Wiscy?  The WRs had to literally stop their routes, sometimes come back to catch the ball, then go get it.  That is not how things happened for PSU.  Trace threw up deep balls in good coverage that were 50/50 balls, but he threw to WRs in stride.  They didn't have to stop and come back to get the ball.  Trace was better than Shea.  He was also able to go to secondary WRs and handle a pass rush.  Shea panics under pressure.  I don't see Shea being capable of what Trace did.  And, just because Gattis was on that staff is very little evidence that he had anything to do with play calling or in game adjustments.  We have no evidence of his involvement in play calling.

MGlobules

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:07 AM ^

Would like to see Jim salvage this. That would be three coaches in a row pretty much broken in half by luck, timing, media, and fans. I value BronxBlue's take quite a lot.

 

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:17 AM ^

I would love to see him workout too.  It would be bad not just for JH, but for all UM fans if he got fired because he was revered as a player.  But, I feel like a good coach could overcome all these deficiencies and this bad luck.  Urban Meyer would have figured it out for example if he was coaching UM the last 5 years.  

KBLOW

September 23rd, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^

There is zero evidence in Meyer's career that he "would've figured it out."  None.

Urban would never have come to a school that had a smoking crater as an OL and no QB's and program-wide demoralization. He has never done a rebuild the likes that Harbaugh was expected to do and never will. No way in hell he takes the OSU job if he didn't walk into all that talent and experience and a QB that was perfect for his offensive philosphy.

Not saying he isn't a great coach. He is. Just that maintaining talent level, focus and championship quality that he did at OSU requires a totally different skill set that he has ever needed or demonstrated. 

smwilliams

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:17 AM ^

Posted this in the Best/Worst Diary, but I keep saying people post the same 5 stats without context. If you conclude that Michigan is a Top 10 program, but not a Top 5 program, then you're arguing with your feelings instead of facts. And, this is a relevant conclusion to make.

We thought we were getting Saban or Meyer or Dabo. We thought it would be an A+ hire. Instead, it's been more like a B+.

The question becomes: are you satisfied being a Top 10 program or do we risk becoming Tennessee or Miami or Nebraska if your next hire isn't one of a handful of coaches to hit that A+ mark.

EDIT TO ADD: Which up-and-coming coach has lifted a program into the "elite" tier recently? Saban came from the NFL where he had less success than Harbaugh. Urban had already won 2 titles at Florida. Georgia might have the most talent in its backyard of any program in the country and is probably straight up paying players. Dabo is an outlier. Pete Carroll got USC to elite with his failed NFL background. There is no Matt Campbell or Mike Leach or Justin Wilcox in the past 20 years who has taken a "blue blood" and vaulted them into elite status since Tressel and Mack Brown. 

Matt Campbell lost El Assico when his team made a series of boneheaded mistakes. Leach just blew a 30+ point lead to a winless UCLA. If you think this offense is bad, let's give Justin Wilcox the job and see how we like it.

Here's how coaches at other Top 10 programs over the past 4+ years have done against "good" teams:

Jim Harbaugh:

vs Final AP Top 10: 2-10

vs Final AP Top 25: 7-12

vs Final AP Top 25 on the road: 1-6

Brian Kelly:

vs Final AP Top 10: 0-6

vs Final Top 25: 9-6

vs Final Top 25 on the road: 2-5

Frames Janklin

vs Final AP Top 10: 2-6

vs Final Top 25: 5-10

vs Final Top 25 on the road: 1-7

Chris Petersen

vs Final AP Top 10: 1-5

vs Final Top 25: 4-5

vs Final Top 25 on the road: 2-2

David Shaw

vs Final AP Top 10: 2-4

vs Final Top 25: 5-9

vs Final Top 25 on the road: 0-5

Les Miles (1 year) / Ed Orgeron (3 years)

vs Final AP Top 10: 2-7

vs Final Top 25: 5-11

vs Final Top 25 on the road: 0-7

vs Alabama: 0-4

True Blue 9

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^

A B+ hire?!?! After what we've seen in the last 5 games?!?! lol 

In regards to your facts about other coaches, I have one simple response: The highest-paid coach on that list is Harbaugh and it's not even close. Franklin is the closest and it's almost HALF of what Harbaugh makes. 

If you're willing to accept the product on the field at $7.5 million and the 3rd highest-paid coach in the game, kudos to you. But fuck that, we should expect better! 

Brodie

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^

People have no context. You can tell that because the memories of how bad Harbaugh's seasons have been generally don't comport with reality. Some guy on Reddit said Harbaugh was great for finishing ranked between 20th and 25th every season, Michigan has never finished that low in a season under Harbaugh where we were ranked at season's end. People keep saying we've never been in playoff contention, we were in playoff contention the last week of the season in 2016 and 2018.

Let's define our terms here. This is not about winning big games, most coaches lose more big games than they win. This is about losing to Ohio State. The real truth is that if we had beaten Ohio State in 2016 or 2018 and going to the ccg, none of these criticisms would exist. We would lose to Wisconsin in exactly the same way we just did and everyone would have write it off as a rebuilding year with a new offensive system. But the collective frustration at losing to Ohio State has transformed Harbaugh in everyone's mind into a greater villain then Rodriguez and Hoke combined.

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^

This is about losing to Ohio State. The real truth is that if we had beaten Ohio State in 2016 or 2018 and going to the ccg, none of these criticisms would exist.

If we had everything the same, just beat OSU in 2016 and got bounced in the playoffs, we would not feel any better about last Saturday.  However, if we still had a junior RT like Hudson and junior top 50 DT like Solomon last Saturday's game may not have been so bad.  We may not have won, but it might not have been so ugly.  Now, there's nothing saying that if those guys had just stayed they would have been as good as we hoped.  But, there is a larger problem of having so many highly ranked recruits that don't play up to their recruiting profile or transfer out.  As the #11 team in country in team talent we should go 10-2 with a loss to OSU and coin flip games to PSU & ND.  Personally I'm OK with how we've fared against OSU minus 2018.  I'm not OK with the track record of rarely beating talented teams.

Mpfnfu Ford

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^

I mean I get that it seems whacked to be upset over one thing changing....but those one or two games mattered a whole hell of a lot. If Michigan goes to that playoff, even if it gets bounced in round 1, I don't think the recruiting craters where Michigan has to play a fullback at DT this year. Look at how much recruiting hay Penn State has made out of that one year they won the Big Ten title. Instead of getting that bump and that proof of concept, Michigan has had to keep explaining why they never win the big one and watching as the players they need to be successful in this division go elseware.

So yeah, it was pretty important to win some of those Ohio State games!

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^

If Michigan goes to that playoff, even if it gets bounced in round 1, I don't think the recruiting craters where Michigan has to play a fullback at DT this year.

Losing to OSU did not cause recruiting craters.  The coaches not recruiting certain positions and/or retaining them did.  There are plenty of teams that do not have this sort of lack of depth that have not recruited as well as UM.  Clemson won a NC with less.

Hannibal.

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^

That's not a very encouraging comparison.  Most of those guys have at least demonstrated upside.  Brian Kelly had a 12-0 season in his third year and has made the CFP since then.  James Franklin's two Top 10 victories came against OSU and then a 13 win Wisconsin team in the B1G championship -- not all Top 10 victories are created equal.  Chris Petersen made the CFP in year three.  David Shaw made a Rose Bowl in year 3 and then won the Rose Bowl in year 5 in a blowout.  Ed Orgeron is considered a great coach by absolutely nobody and a good coach by very few.  And yet he has gotten LSU's offense rolling more effectively than Harbaugh has done at Michigan. 

MGoStrength

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^

The question becomes: are you satisfied being a Top 10 program or do we risk becoming Tennessee or Miami or Nebraska if your next hire isn't one of a handful of coaches to hit that A+ mark.

What makes you think UM is a top 10 program?  UM has finished the season in the top 10 once.  They were #10 in 2016.  I would be satisfied with that, but UM is not that.  Top 10 programs IMO should be based on post season rankings, which puts him more like a top 20 program.  I'm not satisfied with that.  A top 10 program is a team that regularly wins 9-10 AND wins their bowl game.  

bronxblue

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^

I swear, it's been three games as an OC.  I know people like to freak out and the brand of this site is to be hopelessly nihilistic the minute something goes bad, but how about we give the new OC and the unpaid, time-limited college students he's trying to teach more than a couple of months to figure it all out.  For some fucking reason Brian and others have been burying Gattis since basically MTSU, and it's getting tiring.

Yes, it looked good when they threw to their huge WRs...down 35 points.  Michigan threw on something like 65% of their plays in this game, and it only worked once Wisconsin rather clearly backed off a bit.  Now, do I think that may work in the future during non-garbage time?  Sure.  But I also think that there's a ton of confirmation bias going in here and ignoring a bunch of context.  

DeepBlueC

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^

Gattis has had all year to “figure it out”. And you might have some semblance of an argument if Gattis were actually trying to do the things he said he was going to do with this offense, and still working on doing them well, but that’s not the case. There is no organization, no direction, not even an attempt at an identity with this offense.

bronxblue

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^

Gattis was hired about 9 months ago.  He was literally barred from working with certain players for months of that time.  They have played exactly 3 games of competitive football since he became OC.  the rest of your comment is just feelingsball because you just want to be mad and can't find any better arguments.

Mgoczar

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^

Totally with you on this. 

I mean listening to this you'd think Appalachian state happened. Give me a break. \

And Brian et al are the way they are because they thought Wisconsin was garbage (which they aren't, they are the class of B1G west not some tomato can) and that Michigan would just hit the ground running and kill fools with a new OC. 

People want us to be Tennessee? I guess they do. If not then come on. Stick with Harbaugh, stick with something for once. Stop changing schemes. I was not that big on changing the offense for this very GD reason. Now that we have atleast give it a chance this season. We may be surprised in a good way. 

Stop dreaming, start working and figuring out how to improve. 

ak47

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^

I disagree with the idea that if Harbaugh can't make it here who can take because Harbaugh is clearly broken. 2016 Harbaugh is a good coach 2019 isn't.

skegemogpoint

September 23rd, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^

two thoughts:

1. someone ought to question how many coaching staff meetings Jim has had this year. Last year, I can tell you that his first full staff meeting came in late October. That's just plain weird. Other staffs meet regularly each week.

2. Xanax is known to calm your nerves and smooth out behavior. Put down the Xanax. Seriously.

Mpfnfu Ford

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^

I mean yeah, and Michigan's never had the QB success Harbaugh had at his other stops with Roman. Rudock's one year was the best Michigan's had right under Harbaugh right?

When you see Michigan failing over and over again to develop QBs and having to rely on transfers to get even adequate play, it's hard not to think about the fact that the places where he did his best work with QBs, he had an OC with him that stayed in the NFL instead of joining him in Michigan.

Brodie

September 23rd, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^

I don't believe that Michigan is realistically going to be better than we've been. I think, as a program, we keep setting the bar at OSU and that is unrealistic for a number of reasons. The bar should be set at PSU, IMO, and that is a level we are already achieving at. 

Basically my expectations are low. I don't expect B1G titles biannually. I don't expect CFP berths ever. I've never seen anything from Michigan that would make me expect that. Even in our gloriest of glory days in the modern era we would drop 1-2 games a year to 4-7 B1G teams. There's just nothing about Michigan that screams "we can/should be Alabama". 

Mpfnfu Ford

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^

I mean, the simplest answer to all this is the recruiting just hasn't been what it needed to be, isn't it? Even the guys who do have talent don't fit into the offense Harbaugh wants to run, so he tried to change it with Gattis and but still isn't comfortable with it, so we end up with this *gestures at the carnage and whatnot."

In retrospect, expecting the coach who was behind the curve in the *NFL* on using 3WR sets a half decade ago to suddenly be cool running a spread offense feels silly. 

bronxblue

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^

Andrew Luck ran the ball 55 times for almost 500 yards his last year under Harbaugh.  Colin Kaepernick was one of the leading rushers from the QB spot every year he was with Harbaugh as the starter.  

I swear, people have good reasons to dislike Harbaugh's coaching, but just making up stuff drives me insane.  

Mpfnfu Ford

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^

Where did I say anything about QB running? With Greg Roman as his OC, his QBs were always a running threat, absolutely. But his San Fran teams were *dead last* in the NFL in using 3 WR or more sets. *Dead last* by a wide margin too. He was like the last guy single handedly keeping three tight end/2 tight end and a FB sets alive in the NFL, and this was a half decade ago.

He's just not comfortable with using a lot of receivers on the field to spread things out. It's not how he's wired. 

bronxblue

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^

I'd like to also add that "Harbaugh must be so abrasive because they lost Drevno and Hamilton" coming from the people who demanded them be fired for years is a bit rich.  And as noted earlier, he's retained a fair number of guys throughout his tenure.  Losing Wheatley seems like a personality clash, but good lord if that's your barometer of competency is whether or not your RB coach wants to get paid more, then what are we even doing here?

Harbaugh seems like a lot of coaches.  He's not remotely more abrasive or obnoxious than Kelly, Saban, etc.  Harbaugh's problem is he just hasn't won as much as they have.

Alumnus93

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^

On the segment was said... "If Harbaugh can do it here, who can ?"    Well, I do think Dan Mullen would have done well.. And Miles too.  

bronxblue

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^

Maybe Mullen, but I'll be honest his last recruiting class crumbled with a ton of early transfers (a couple before they even walked onto campus), and Florida hasn't been particularly sharp this year despite playing a pretty easy schedule.  Miles would have died in a fire here; Ed Orgeron may be a sentient piece of swamp gas and wins 10+ games at LSU.

Mpfnfu Ford

September 23rd, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^

Mullen is a horrifically bad recruiter, and I have a decent feeling he'll bomb out at Florida where they expect to compete for national titles. He'll win 9-10 games every year, but he's never going to threaten Alabama/Georgia/Clemson for the top talent in his state and the talent imbalance is going to eventually do him in. 

Blue Balls Afire

September 23rd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^

I, too, have been in an existential funk since football Chernobyl.  Is this all we can produce as a program?  Are ten wins and perpetual losses to OSU the best we can hope for?  There seems to be two strata of college programs: one is the SEC and OSUs of the world who have simply abdicated any notion of a student athlete and are just a professional minor league for the NFL; the other is the Stanford, Northwestern, Notre Dame's of the world who at least give lip service to trying to maintain academic standards and not getting into bed with bag-men.  Can a school in this tier ever win a national championship in the current college football system?  I remember reading somewhere the difficulty Michigan faces in recruiting: Of the top 300 recruits, 100 can't or won't play school at Michigan, another 100 wants to get paid, so that leaves 100 kids we can recruit.  Clemson has no such limitation.  OSU recruits anyone.  Georgia isn't trimming their recruiting pool by two-thirds.  Of course that doesn't mean we can't put together a top class here or there, but we can't do it at the same rate, year after year, like Alabama, et al.  And, once they get here, they have to go to class resulting in some kids who transfer out.  Setting this one particular Wisconsin game aside, we have the perfect coach for Michigan's program and we can't beat an upper tier team.  Unless we sell our soul to the devil and start playing by SEC rules, can we ever be a program that challenges for a playoff spot every year?  Is winning with dignity a pipe-dream?  I dunno, man.  BPONE has set in.  Thanks for coming to my nihilist Ted talk.

Brodie

September 23rd, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^

I kinda believe this. It's not like we're alone here, either. There's Texas, Notre Dame sneaks in due to having an easier scheduling arrangement and a down USC but is clearly inferior, PSU is on our level. USC, Miami, Nebraska seem perpetually in the gutter. 

The playoff has clearly changed the game in a way few could have foreseen... it made Alabama and Clemson and even OSU stronger while everyone else has taken a step back. 

MC5-95

September 23rd, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^

Good lord. "Wise Up" is on the playlist? Never thought Michigan Football would deliver the same existential melancholia as Magnolia, but yes, yes it has.