Matthews, Brazdeikis, Poole Into Draft Process
Michigan issued a press release on this year's edition of NBA Draft Russian Roulette:
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- University of Michigan men's basketball players Charles Matthews, Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis announced today (Tuesday, April 9) they will all declare for early entry into the 2019 NBA Draft. All three Wolverines intend to sign with agents, who will work with the U-M coaching staff to assist student athletes through the evaluation and pre-draft processes.
"Charles, Jordan and Iggy have all decided to take the next steps in pursuing their dreams of playing in the NBA," said Beilein. "The new process is a unique experience and one that my staff and I will assist in every way we can. We want each of them to utilize this opportunity to get more feedback so they can make the best decision possible for themselves and their families. All three are remarkable young men with amazing futures in front on them."
Under newly adopted NCAA rules, college players are allowed to retain the services of an agent during the evaluation process. If they choose to return to school, they must end the relationship with the agent and they will not lose any eligibility. Additionally, players can also now return to school after going undrafted without losing eligibility, but only if they have participated in the NBA combine.
Bold mine, as this doesn't quite close the door on a return. Buuuuuut… yeah, this sounds extremely bad. Matthews is and has been gone and that's both fine and something the program planned for. Potentially losing both Poole and Brazdeikis to murky pro prospects would be tough to recover from. The chances of that just spiked.
[After THE JUMP: do not read]
This sounds very much like Iggy's out. This is not a test the waters scenario:
Michigan freshman Ignas Brazdeikis will hire an agent and enter the 2019 NBA draft, he told ESPN on Tuesday.
"As long as I can remember, I've wanted to be an NBA player -- not just an NBA player, but an NBA All-Star," Brazdeikis said. "My intent is to be drafted this year as high as I can be and start my journey."
Brazdeikis is headed for the second round, per any draft ranking you care to poke, but he's already 20 and has relatively limited upside left to explore. It is vaguely plausible that he could bomb at the combine and change his mind. But it's a distant chance.
Poole is less definitive. From the press release:
"The last two years here at Michigan have been amazing and filled with so many memories," said Poole. "I've not only become a better player but a better individual. Being able to play in the NBA has always been my dream since I was young. I am confident that with my faith in God and hard work that I, and my family, are prepared to look at all options and make the right decision for the next step of my playing career."
If rampant rumors of Poole's unhappiness turn out to be true he, too, could head for the second round of the draft and hope to break through.
Michigan's been approaching the last few months like attrition is coming so they're not entirely caught out here, but even so their options to fill at least one and maybe up to three scholarship slots right now are Franz Wagner, Lester Quinones, and various grad transfers they've reached out to. Now that Michigan has 30 additional high-usage minutes to tout to folks maybe some more names emerge.
Good thing you started the Let's Start Again series with center and point guard...
If Only Beilein could learn how to make guys stay, then he'd be the real deal, already is the real deal but he'd be even more of the real deal. Poole and Iggy should both stay but oh well. Hopefully we're good next, if all three leave I guess we'll have a 20-12 type season or something close to that.
"Should stay" is a term that I've used in the past but have realized that I am not able to determine FOR a college athlete. Even if we all believe that Poole will be much improved with another year under JB, there is zero guarantee of that helping his draft prospects. In that regard saying he would improve does not mean that he "should stay" because he will likely improve in the G League as well and it is debatable which would help him more. In the G League he would begin to work out like a pro without the burden of classes and school. Who's to say that wouldn't be just as valuable, in addition to the pro-level coaching, as anything he would get from JB next year?
All these guys "should" make the decision they feel most comfortable with and put all their energy into it.
I like this comment, this is a good comment.
I completely agree with your post, except for the "pro-level coaching" thing. I don't think there is anyone coaching in the G-League that is demonstrably better than JB. Or a host of other top college coaches. Its probably better to say that Poole can continue his development in a more pro-friendly environment, where he will probably get involved in a more free wheeling offense with less emphasis on defense. I think that would suit him well - and more power to him!
I see what you are saying. When I said pro level coaching I didn't intend to imply that it would be better than JB but merely better than the average college coach.
I believe player development puts JB at, or near, the top of all college coaches, but it also is somewhat limited by practice limitations (part of being a student athlete).
In the end I think we just have two different ways of saying the same thing...JB is a great coach but it still might be in Poole's best interest to turn pro.
Last sentence = spot on!
Only Iggy is likely drafted. Matthews has his degree so G-league is his chance to show NBA skills. Poole should return to get his UM degree as the G-league is not a long term career.
April 10th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
It's usually the case that most players who think they should go, should probably stay, especially if you're not projected as a first or second rounder (Iggy and Poole). I trust professional NBA scouts more than these kids and almost all would say, stay another year at Michigan. Iggy is pretty damn good and probably doesn't need much coaching from JB anymore but Poole is a completely different story. Can't play defense, questionable shot selection, poor assist man and poor rebounder. Jacking up threes like freshman Zak Irvin and occasionally having a ridiculous MJ like drive to the hoop to get you to 12ppg won't cut it in the NBA. I don't know if you pay attention to the G league, but VERY few players move from the G league to the NBA and the coaching is not great. Extra coaching at the college level (especially JB) is way better than the G league.
The only coaches in college sports who actively attempt to sabotage the future earnings of student athletes in order to benefit themselves financially and help their own reputation are assholes and are named Tom Izzo. Beilein made a final four with three freshman, a sophomore, and a junior. Izzo had two five star players on one team, and the rest were four stars, and couldn't get past the second round. He purposefully dwarfs his talent for as long as possible so that he can keep them at school (Ben Carter playing over JJJ) and make a run when all his four and five stars are upperclassmen. Hence the statistic he has where he makes a final four every 4-5 years.
Beilein encourages kids to do what's best for them and then has to figure out how to fill in the gaps later. Is it frustrating? Yes. Is it the right thing to do? Also yes.
But, Izzo is so good at it that his players actually think that he is on their side.
Izzo after the TTU loss blamed the loss on foul trouble (despite MSU shooting ~2x more FT,) his players not being tough enough and bad games from his two seniors. After that, Ernie Johnson said, nothing but class. I’m like, what world am I living in? Isn’t anybody actually listening to what he’s saying?
But he brings his players donuts in the morning.
Not sure I agree with that take.
Bridges, Jackson, and Harris were his best recruits in recent history, all won FOY, all had 1st round draft grades, and all 3 seriously considered returning, with 2 of them returning. But all 3 ended up leaving as sophomores or freshmen.
The reason why we have more early entrants is because we recruit guys that fit the NBA mold, even if they're not top 25 recruits or so. Winston was ranked like 25th or so, but there's nothing he can do from a genetic standpoint to be an NBA guy. Poole, on the other hand, is supremely talented, but is very raw. Most college teams would have rather had Winston than Poole this year, but 30/30 NBA teams would rather have Poole than Winston.
Beilein recruits a different type of player than Izzo. That's why we're almost never in recruiting battles. College and pro are two entirely different sports
I could be wrong, but weren’t we recruiting Winston hard? And didn’t we end up going with Simpson when Winston couldn’t decide between Michigan and MSU, and we couldn’t wait any longer or we might have lost Simpson?
That was a good narrative, though, and your facts are intruding upon it. Back off, good sir.
Yes we were.
Of course we recruit some of the same guys. We're in the same state. But more often than not we aren't recruiting the same kids.
Welcome back "footballguy." I didn't think you'd be able to bounce back from Saturday's defeat so quickly but a 3 day recovery is impressive. Almost as impressive as your understanding and knowledge of MSU's recruiting, player development and results in the NBA draft. Then again, you do know it all, so "we" fellow Michigan fans shouldn't be surprised. Also, please use more italics to emphasize words in your posts. Without the italics that you so often use, I would not be able to decipher where the emphasis should go. Thank you.
You doing alright dude?
And yeah, I remember the Winston recruitment. Most MSU and Michigan basketball fans do. But using that 1 anecdote is misleading when discussing the full scope of the guys we recruit vs the guys they recruit. We're almost never going head to head really hard for 1 recruit.
And the guys we recruit are almost always more athletic than the guys they recruit. Our guys are much more likely to end up in the NBA due to genetics
Saying Belein could do more to keep these guys is ridiculous. Iggy is no surprise. Poole, I’m torn because he’s super talented but I think it’s time for him to go. So far he doesn’t seem to want to buy into the Belien college system and that’s ok. When Belein emphasized defense, Poole regressed. He probably will do better in the offensive minded NBA.
Belein is trying to win championships and you do that one of two ways. Recruit all NBA prospects and simply out talent and out physical the competition (Duke and Kentucky) OR recruit talented, hard working, 3 or 4 year guys that buy into your system. Sometimes Duke wins, sometimes Virginia wins. Each path has its pitfalls.
Every coach loses players to the NBA.
By design for sure. The delay between the next positions also by design.
I am not surprised by Iggy at all.
I still think Poole probably comes back. His ceiling is so high and with Iggy and Matthews gone, he will absolutely be able to run the show alongside Simpson as long as his usage remains efficient (this past year his efficiency tanked when his usage went up so he'll have to make better decisions). He could go from fringe second rounder to lottery pick.
I don't see Poole as close to a lottery pick. He doesn't really have any elite tool in his arsenal, even though he is a very good overall talent. Could he sneak into the bottom of the first next year? Maybe, but it would take a step up for him to get to that level (again...IMO).
He's not a lottery pick now, no. But he has the talent to get there. He shows some remarkable flashes. He just needs to get the mental aspect of the game down, focus on putting in the effort consistently and improve his decision making and he could be a lottery pick.
That's his ceiling. There is a path for him to get there. I don't know if he'd get there if he comes back, but he has a reasonable chance.
Iggy, in contrast, has no chance to be a lottery pick.
Poole is the most overrated player in the Belein era. Unless he makes massive improvements we are in deep trouble with him as the primary scoring option.
He's not overrated; he just didn't take a massive leap forward last year. There are a number of reasons for that, some of which are his own fault and others beyond his control, but I wouldn't say he's all that bad. People talking about him like a top-15 guy to begin the year sort of assumed his efficiency would stay the same (or improve) with far more usage, which is pretty rare for guys.
It isn't a perfect analogy, but he feels a bit like Walton in that he looked great in a limited role but struggled a bit when he was asked to carry more of the load until it all clicked. It's not a given that Poole will have that happen when at UM, but people (including myself) sort of assumed Walton fizzled out as a top-50 guy until he became a top-5 player in college the last half of his senior year.
I wouldn’t say overrated because I don’t think he was ever rated in the first place.
How is he overrated when he's the scapegoat in every loss for half this blog and taking so much shit on Twitter that his dad is saying he should go? Fuck off.
I had not heard that Poole was declaring, too.
I get Charles but kinda not. He will wash out fast. The other 2 ... best of luck with that. Coach .. find us some real blue blood.
he's athletic, by accounts a hard worker, and an outstanding defender.
you can carve a nice career out of that.
Shit man I would have loved a paid tour of Europe in my 20s...
Charles and Iggy are likely both very close to or near their potential right now. The reality is that coming back an extra year for miniscule improvements won't make a big enough draft position difference to justify losing an entire year of a pro contract. In contrast with Poole, I really feel like if he can put together everything that he's shown in bits and pieces, he could shoot up the draft boards and be a better basketball player. Hard to argue that another year for Iggy or Charles would provide the same benefit
If he will wash out fast after this year, he'd wash out fast after next year. And even if he doesn't make the NBA, he has a professional future somewhere. He has his degree, played college ball for four years and accomplished a lot.
It is entirely reasonable for him to leave. In fact, getting half a graduate degree that he won't care about and won't use while continuing to not get paid would be a waste of his precious years that he can earn money playing basketball.
Tucker, Wagner, Quinnones, Beverly
Land 2 of those 4 and ceiling is second weekend next year
Add all 4 and then the ceiling is the roof.
With great anticipation, I eagerly await the outcome of having two more scholarships to use for the 2019 season. An excellent 4 member class to follow last year’s outstanding 5 member class. Keep it rolling! Go Blue.
I'll take a starting five of Sr Simpson, Jr Brooks, Fr Wilson, Jr Livers and Sr Teske over just about any team.
The ceiling, as it has been for the past three years, is still a final four +.
Well, alrighty then.
Maybe in the pros, Iggy can learn how to pass and Poole can learn how to shoot.
I'm a little irritated because I thought those guys had a lot of potential and were fun to watch but they didn't really live up to that potential. In fact, they got very frustrating to watch as the season wore on. So, I thought that was a good thing. That meant they would stay, learn a lot under Beilein and come back as flamethrowers next year.
I hope they come back but if they don't I hope they do well. But I'd feel better about it if they'd had really good seasons, but I don't think what they did this year merits an early entry to the draft.
If "merit" had anything to do with NBA draft, then Winston would be a lock for the lottery.
I just don't get people who keep talking like you have to excel in college in order to get drafted, when half the lottery picks are there because they have extremely long arms. It just does not work that way. NBA Draft is all about your potential. Iggy is performing close to his college peak and is probably going to not improve his draft position by coming back another year.
And if you listened to Ace at all this year, you would know that Poole's upside is almost limitless. He may not have shown it during the year much, but all he needs is to catch the eye of just one GM. And if not, he can always come back.
I just don't get the attitude of people who are getting upset over this...
Not upset at all over here other than of course hoping they all come back. Iggy is legit and probably ready as leading scorer, but my God I'd like him back more than anyone to terrorize the B10. As for Poole having a "limitless" upside, ah, I'll just go ahead and say everyone is entitled to their opinion. Lastly, is it just homerism or what is its out this board that thinks Izzo points a gun at players head or something to stay? Are there examples of players staying too long? I dont know much about goins other than Izzo coached him into a possible NBA/europe player in his last year from my sparty friends. Seems to send lots of fellas to the pros. Fuck them but hard to figure how Izzo successfully sending players to the NBA is a crutch, but that's just me.
Look at our best recruit coming in vs theirs.
Wilson is a 6'8" SF who can shoot. That's an NBA type guy.
Rocket Watts is a 6'2" combo guard whose profile literally says "arguably the best scorer in the class but doesn't fit the NBA mold".
So many of the guys that Izzo gets are 4 year guys due to genetics. We just recruit different guys. Nick Ward and Winston are highly ranked recruits but don't really fit the NBA mold. There's nothing that even Beilein could do that would change that.
Michigan did recruit and offered Rocket Watts, but Watts has been MSU lean for a long time which is why they didn't get him.
April 10th, 2019 at 12:16 AM ^
From what I understand, Wilson isn't an NBA level athlete and likely won't be a one or two and done. Could be wrong, but I thought the book on him was like Iggy: highly skilled, mature physically, but limited ceiling. And that's actually not a normal recruit for Beilein.
I get what you're saying about Izzo recruits but I think you're generalizing a bit too much. I would argue that a lot of their guys are 4 years guys more because of skills (the lack thereof) than genetics.
Guys like Appling, Dawson and Payne were all highly rated, highly athletic guys that either never learned to shoot or did so late in his career (Payne). If Branden Dawson could shoot and dribble, he'd be an NBA wing player.
It had long been a staple of Izzo's recruiting strategy to get tough, strong, athletic guys and have them play tenacious defense and rebound.
It seems like a recent shift in strategy to take more guys like Trice, McQuaid and Winston that have been four year guys because of genetics, but I don't think they're any different than Beilein guys like MAAR, Walton and Teske that are really good players but also four year guys because of genetics.
The NBA drafts on potential, and if they thought Poole had a lot of it he wouldn’t be so low on draft boards. Citing Ace for an objective assessment of Poole was good for a laugh, though. To be fair, he does the have the potential to play much better than he did this year. But there is a reason this seems like a surprise.
Totally agree. The early entry generally makes me crazy also.
Ok I have two different frames of mind about this. College athletes are severely exploited and should be paid for the money they generate and since they aren't, they should go make money as soon as they can.
The other half of me is saying what the fuck, why do we get totally screwed by this every year?? MSU is gonna get a senior Winston, a senior Ward, a senior Langford, a sophomore Henry, and a junior Tillman all back. They got fucking Miles Bridges to come back a second year just so he could waste a year of his life and hurt his draft stock by a few picks. They got Payne, Green, Valentine, and Appling to all stay for their entire eligibility.
In the Beilein era, we've lost early entrants of Morris, Manny Harris, Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, Stauskas, McGary, DJ Wilson, Wagner, Matthews, Poole, Iggy.
Who has MSU lost early in that same time span? Deyonta Davis who barely played, Gary Harris, Bridges, and Jaren Jackson. Isn't that all of them?? I literally can't think of anymore players they've had leave early which is absolutely absurd given their recruiting power over ours
AND, I think they have enough front court depth to recover from having a Senior Ward come back also!
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