Part I: Forwards

We're back for part two of the 2023-24 Let's Start Again Hockey series. I broke these pieces into two because they were running very long as one coherent one, so today we're back to cover defense, goaltending, and then coaching, as there's been change on that front too. 

 

Defense

Exit: Luke Hughes, Keaton Pehrson 

Maybe: Jay Keranen 

Additions: Marshall Warren, Tyler Duke 

We'll knock the exits out real quick. Luke Hughes signed in the NHL, as everyone knew he would. He scored his first NHL goal as an OT winner in the final game of the regular season for New Jersey and then re-appeared in round two of the playoffs when the Devils needed some scoring punch amid their losing effort against Carolina. Hughes ought to be one of the Calder favorites for Rookie of the Year if someone not named Connor Bedard wins it next season (depends on how much PP time he gets, I guess). Keaton Pehrson also announced his exit via the transfer portal, landing with a quality program in North Dakota. Good for him. 

So that's two players in the top four of this past season's defense exiting, but fear not, Michigan faithful, as this is still a very deep defensive corps. The star figures to be sophomore Seamus Casey, who is in line for big point totals with Hughes out of the picture and ceding him the PP1 slot. After a strong freshman year and the brilliant Frozen Four goal, I can't wait to see what Casey can do in year #2. His defense partner Ethan Edwards also returns, although I think they may be on separate pairs this year to balance out the stylistic similarities. Edwards didn't make a major jump as a sophomore in 2022-23 but is a talented, mobile puck-mover who isn't afraid to get physical (sometimes too physical) and is in line for top four minutes. 

[Bill Rapai]

Also in the top four should be the returning Jacob Truscott, who you'd think is the favorite to be captain of the 2023-24 squad as a senior. He's returning not just to Michigan, but from injury as well after having not played since late January. Though not confirmed, you have to think missing the Frozen Four was part of why Truscott spurned the Canucks one more year for a final run in the NCAA. Truscott is a left shot but played the right opposite Luke Hughes, so he could be a solid fit next to the LHD Edwards. 

The final player who you'd think will be in the top four is Boston College transfer Marshall Warren. Picked in the 6th round of the 2019 NHL Draft, Warren was a member of the famous 2018-19 USNTDP squad with Jack Hughes, Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Cam York, and Johnny Beecher. Yeah, Warren's been around. He logged four seasons for the Eagles and was their captain last year and as I remarked on the season ending HockeyCast, transferred to Michigan to play for a good program (had to re-up that zinger). I don't have a ton of scouting notes on Warren but that pedigree suggests a very solid player who should fit nicely in the top four and bring loads of veteran experience that matters in the big moments. His point totals don't suggest a majorly offensive piece, so as a LHD the best fit may be next to Casey on the top pair. 

The third pair got a big time pickup out of the portal from Ohio State's Tyler Duke, brother of Dylan, who completed the full Johnny Damon by switching between the two bitter rivals. Duke was supposed to be a mid-round pick in 2022 but like his brother, fell way down the board (in Tyler's case, out of the draft completely!). After 12 points in 40 games as a freshman at OSU, I doubt Duke's getting picked this summer, but maybe! Regardless, he flashed some moments and has talent, never thought he was a bad NCAA player or anything. Having played a full college season helps and I think he slides comfortably onto your third pair and you feel incredible about having him as your 5th defenseman. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More D, G, coaches]

[David Wilcomes]

Especially if you could put Duke with Jay Keranen, where there seems to be uncertainty about a return. Keranen was a surprise stand-out last season, going from largely irrelevant 19th skater to useful penalty killer and steady defenseman. He has the COVID-shirt available but it's not clear if he's going to use it. It would be a boost ie he did, especially because you can always flex him to F in a pinch. The other candidate to be on the third pair is Steve Holtz, whose story won the hearts of the college hockey world for perseverance this past season. After Truscott's injury, Holtz was able to return from near-death and hold down a regular spot on defense for the entire postseason run. He's not an incredible player but to have him as your 6th/7th D, a big RHD you can swap in if injuries hit or you want a different look, is a hell of a luxury. 

Beyond that, there's Luca Fantilli, Adam's brother who was mostly the 19th skater last season but flashed the occasional passing play when he got a larger role. There's also Johnny Druskinis, a classmate of Fantilli's who caught my eye for a few defensive plays when he got in the mix in the fall during the team-wide illness. From what I saw, both could probably be a 6th D if needed and the fact they're more likely than not going to be in the press box says a lot about the defensive depth. Brendan Miles remains a likely scratch as a possible developmental player down the line. 

Michigan doesn't seem to be taking any defensemen in this recruiting class and when you've got nine or possibly even ten NCAA defenseman already on the roster, why bother? Jack Willson was deferred and will come in during the summer of 2024, likely along with recent commit Dakoda Rhéaume-Mullen. 

[Bill Rapai]

How it fits together: This is pretty straightforward, with Keranen as the only real question here: 

Warren - Casey 

Edwards - Truscott

Duke - Keranen? 

If Keranen is not back, Holtz takes that spot easily as your 3rd pair RD. After him are Fantilli, Druskinis, and Miles. The team is going to miss the brilliant offensive abilities of Luke Hughes, what he gave you in transition especially, but I like Casey's ability to take a step forward in that regard and with Warren and Duke joining the squad they have a shot to be stronger defensively as a whole. The depth is also better as you have sophomore versions of Fantilli/Druskinis rather than freshman ones (not to mention sophomore Casey) and Holtz hopefully does not end up violently sick again. With a bit better health, you're looking at a very deep and very experienced D corps. Warren will be on year #5 of college hockey, Keranen would be as well if he returns, Truscott and Holtz year #4, Edwards year #3, and Casey and Duke year #2. No freshmen in the starting lineup and all reserves are at least sophomores too. Hard to dislike that!  

 

[David Wilcomes]

Goalie

Exit: Erik Portillo 

Maybe: Tyler Shea 

Additions: Jacob Barczewski  

Michigan says farewell to two-year starter Erik Portillo after a rollercoaster junior season, with Portillo having signed in the minor leagues with the LA Kings' AHL affiliate in Ontario, California. Portillo was not exactly a rock last season so it's not a high level of play you're replacing, but it is a regular one, as Portillo started every game in 2021-22 and all but three in 2022-23. There's also not an obvious hoss replacing him due to recruiting hiccups and other issues. 

The Wolverines were supposed to get the USNTDP's goalie, Trey Augustine, who would be the easy pick to be The Guy right from the start, but unfortunately the firing of Mel Pearson created a window for Augustine's junior coach Adam Nightingale to lure him to Michigan State. Gah! After that, Brandon Naurato tried to patch the hole with Marcus Brännman, a Swede who was decent in the USHL, but academic issues appear to have gotten in the way a la Papa Kante. Brännman decommitted and is now off to Providence. 

[Canisius Athletics]

All this means that Michigan had to hit the portal and landed Jacob Barczewski out of Canisius. Barczewski led the Golden Griffins to the NCAA Tournament this past season after they had a cinderella run through the Atlantic Hockey Tournament. Barczewski posted a .918 SV% while facing ~32 shots per game, coming a year after posting a .924 against ~33 shots per game in 2021-22. Those are numbers that would definitely play if you could replicate them at Michigan. There will be a significant strength of competition adjustment upwards necessary going from the AHA to the B1G, but on the other hand, you'd also like to think Michigan, with a veteran defensive group, can do a better job limiting shot quality in front of him. 

Noah West is also an option for the Wolverines, having entered the portal but opting to return. He played in three games for Michigan this past season, magnificent in one, fine in one, and not great in one. West had a .915 at Robert Morris back in 2020-21 (also Atlantic Hockey), so not the world's greatest profile but also not terrible. I wouldn't feel great about going into a season with West as my starter but I saw enough positive moments last year to think he could hack it if needed. It'll be about finding consistency and proving his process is repeatable. 

Michigan's seldom-used third-string goalie Tyler Shea entered the portal after the season and as of right now remains in the portal. He could return, as West did, or he could leave and Michigan could look for a different third-string. Either possibility seems plausible and it isn't terribly consequential. For now we'll assume Shea returns, but if he doesn't, that probably won't alter the picture much.  

[David Wilcomes]

How it fits together: Pretty simple but this is how I'd handicap the depth chart at goalie: 

1A. Barczewski

1B. West 

3. Shea 

As of right now, goalie is the relative weakness of this team, or at least the biggest area of uncertainty. 

One of West or Barczewski will need to step up and prove they can be a game-in, game-out B1G starter (I doubt Shea (or his replacement) is going to be a factor here). I'd lean towards it being slightly more likely for Barczewski, but it's anyone's guess quite frankly. With Barczewski my primary worry is up-transferring to the B1G, something you can never bank on going smoothly. But if Michigan plays sound, disciplined defensen in front of him, I think he could be quite successful. Something akin to what Minnesota has been able to do to help Justen Close succeed.

Similar story for Noah West, but I tend to favor Barczewski more just because he has been a multi-year NCAA starter and has started a Tournament game, while West has not. It's possible you could see a tandem work too. Michigan doesn't need elite goaltending, especially if Fantilli is back, but it can't be a dumpster fire. I don't think it will be, but both goalies will have a lot to prove at the B1G level this upcoming season. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Coaching Staff

Exit: Bill Muckalt 

Additions: ??

I didn't plan to have anything on this when I sat down to do this series, but then realized it is news I didn't cover, so I might as well toss it in here. Bill Muckalt has exited the program, not to anyone's surprise. When he got passed up for the top job in favor of Naurato last summer, the writing was on the wall. Muckalt was classy enough to stick around to help ensure a smooth transition and for that we should be thankful, but this is Naurato's program now. Muckalt came with Mel to Michigan and coached under Mel at Michigan Tech before heading to Tri-City. He was a Mel guy and with Naurato re-making the culture in his style, it makes sense to make a change there. I'd assume the decision was somewhat mutual. 

That leaves one spot open on the coaching staff and that's before we add in the new spot that comes with the NCAA voting to allow four coaches on hockey staffs this upcoming season. Whoever replaces Muckalt will probably be a more systems/skater-based coach and the person filling the new slot will almost certainly be a goalie coach. The absence of a designated goalie coach during the 2022-23 season stood out against the backdrop of Portillo's often poor level of play and it will come in handy to have a paid goalie coach on staff when Michigan is going into a season with two goalies who are untested as starters at the B1G level. 

I don't have any intel or names to watch for on this front, but wanted to note that it does represent a change from this past season. It's one of the more notable storylines to follow this summer, beyond Adam Fantilli Watch 2k23. Given Naurato's hiring patterns, I'd expect at least one of the hires to be a younger, more data-driven/progressive coach, while the goalie coach may just be a search for whoever the best name on the market is.