tyler shea
We're back for part two of the 2023-24 Let's Start Again Hockey series. I broke these pieces into two because they were running very long as one coherent one, so today we're back to cover defense, goaltending, and then coaching, as there's been change on that front too.
Defense
Exit: Luke Hughes, Keaton Pehrson
Maybe: Jay Keranen
Additions: Marshall Warren, Tyler Duke
We'll knock the exits out real quick. Luke Hughes signed in the NHL, as everyone knew he would. He scored his first NHL goal as an OT winner in the final game of the regular season for New Jersey and then re-appeared in round two of the playoffs when the Devils needed some scoring punch amid their losing effort against Carolina. Hughes ought to be one of the Calder favorites for Rookie of the Year if someone not named Connor Bedard wins it next season (depends on how much PP time he gets, I guess). Keaton Pehrson also announced his exit via the transfer portal, landing with a quality program in North Dakota. Good for him.
So that's two players in the top four of this past season's defense exiting, but fear not, Michigan faithful, as this is still a very deep defensive corps. The star figures to be sophomore Seamus Casey, who is in line for big point totals with Hughes out of the picture and ceding him the PP1 slot. After a strong freshman year and the brilliant Frozen Four goal, I can't wait to see what Casey can do in year #2. His defense partner Ethan Edwards also returns, although I think they may be on separate pairs this year to balance out the stylistic similarities. Edwards didn't make a major jump as a sophomore in 2022-23 but is a talented, mobile puck-mover who isn't afraid to get physical (sometimes too physical) and is in line for top four minutes.
[Bill Rapai]
Also in the top four should be the returning Jacob Truscott, who you'd think is the favorite to be captain of the 2023-24 squad as a senior. He's returning not just to Michigan, but from injury as well after having not played since late January. Though not confirmed, you have to think missing the Frozen Four was part of why Truscott spurned the Canucks one more year for a final run in the NCAA. Truscott is a left shot but played the right opposite Luke Hughes, so he could be a solid fit next to the LHD Edwards.
The final player who you'd think will be in the top four is Boston College transfer Marshall Warren. Picked in the 6th round of the 2019 NHL Draft, Warren was a member of the famous 2018-19 USNTDP squad with Jack Hughes, Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Cam York, and Johnny Beecher. Yeah, Warren's been around. He logged four seasons for the Eagles and was their captain last year and as I remarked on the season ending HockeyCast, transferred to Michigan to play for a good program (had to re-up that zinger). I don't have a ton of scouting notes on Warren but that pedigree suggests a very solid player who should fit nicely in the top four and bring loads of veteran experience that matters in the big moments. His point totals don't suggest a majorly offensive piece, so as a LHD the best fit may be next to Casey on the top pair.
The third pair got a big time pickup out of the portal from Ohio State's Tyler Duke, brother of Dylan, who completed the full Johnny Damon by switching between the two bitter rivals. Duke was supposed to be a mid-round pick in 2022 but like his brother, fell way down the board (in Tyler's case, out of the draft completely!). After 12 points in 40 games as a freshman at OSU, I doubt Duke's getting picked this summer, but maybe! Regardless, he flashed some moments and has talent, never thought he was a bad NCAA player or anything. Having played a full college season helps and I think he slides comfortably onto your third pair and you feel incredible about having him as your 5th defenseman.
[AFTER THE JUMP: More D, G, coaches]
Previously: Freshmen forwards, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast
This is the third and final position preview of our Michigan Hockey season preview. After covering the forwards, both returners and newbies, today we pivot to the defense and the goalies in one large and comprehensive piece. Part III of the season preview series begins.
Luke Hughes
Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'2"/190
NHL Draft Position: 4th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, New Jersey
Stats: 17-22-39 in 41 games last season
Why not start with the star? Luke Hughes was a dazzling freshman last season, not just meeting the lofty expectations bestowed by his draft position but exceeding them. The USNTDP product and the youngest Hughes brother had an even better freshman year than his brother Quinn did at Michigan, which is saying something. Luke scored a staggering 17 goals as a defenseman, writing his name into the Michigan Hockey record book with that total. Even crazier, just 3 of those 17 goals came on the PP! That lack of PP1 assignments, thanks to Owen Power's presence on the team, hampered Hughes' point totals some, yet he still piled up 22 assists to score just shy of a point-per-game. Hughes finished third on the team in points and in choosing to return to school, Hughes made himself the top dog for this 2022-23 Michigan squad.
Unlike some freshmen, Hughes was a stud right from the jump. Just two months into the season, your author was calling Hughes "Michigan's most electric player". He had points in his first six NCAA games and maintained his blazing pace as the year went along. When Power departed with the Olympians and Hughes was elevated to the true #1 role offensively, Luke went crazy, posting 6-3-9 in four games. One of those goals was this one:
Your author has watched many Michigan Hockey games at Yost Ice Arena, but the Hughes ThunderGoal against OSU remains the most "Yowza!!!!" moment he's ever seen. That's the sort of player Luke Hughes is. He's a gorgeous skater like his siblings, but he's faster in a straight line than Quinn, more capable of the flash-of-lightning type play like the one clipped above. His skating ability drives the package, but a good shot, stellar offensive instincts, and plus vision make him the best offensive defenseman in college hockey, and also the best offensive defenseman prospect not playing in the NHL in your author's opinion. Plays like this happen often with Hughes out there:
Jimmy Lambert wins the draw back to Luke Hughes and buries it to make it 2-0 Michigan pic.twitter.com/CbxkoFJ5Qd
— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 27, 2022
Hughes drives transitional play while on the ice, performing his duties as a zone exit/zone entry machine. He attacks off the rush but is also a major weapon activating in the cycle game once in the offensive zone. All this of course means that Hughes is an offensively dominant player, but one who is going to be vacating defensively responsibilities often, as is the case for all puck rushers.
Defensively, there are some warts to his game, both from him leaving his post but also in-zone. Working on the defensive side of the game is presumably why Luke is back at Michigan. At 6'2", he has a chance to be a better defensive defenseman than Quinn ever was, but it will take hard work and attention to detail from Luke, especially positionally. Whether that part of the game comes along is what to watch this season, because you know he's going to light up the scoreboard.
Season Expectations: This is Luke's season to make a run for the Hobey Baker. Michigan has not won the Hobey since Kevin Porter in 2008 (because the 2016 voters deserve time in a maximum security prison) and Luke Hughes appears to be the best shot since then to win one for the Wolverines. I suspect that his goal totals will decline some, because he maintained an extremely high S% for a defenseman which seems likely to revert to a lower mean, but the expanded role Hughes has on the PP will pad his assist totals no doubt. He should match his points-per-game total from last season at least, and perhaps exceed it. How much higher it can climb, and Michigan's team success, will determine his Hobey case, but this is a player who is the headliner for the team no matter what defender he's paired with. #1 defenseman, top pair, PP1, all the assignments. Superstar.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Other players who are not likely Hobey candidates]
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