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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#31 Michigan (14-11, 8-7 Big Ten) vs #71 Rutgers (16-10, 10-6 Big Ten)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M-6 Torvik: M –7.5
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan's erratic quest to sneak into the tournament continues tonight with the beginning of a four-game homestand featuring two quad one games. This is not one of them. Rutgers owns a better Big Ten record than Michigan and several impressive wins (Purdue, Michigan, @ Wisconsin, OSU, Illinois) but is widely hated by fancystats because they've lost to Northwestern, Maryland, Penn State, DePaul, UMass, and Kenpom #307 Lafayette. You could be the Showtime Lakers or a D-III team, and Rutgers will be a coin flip.

The last meeting was not a coin flip as Rutgers led by 17 midway through the second half. Michigan went 3/15 from three while Rutgers was 11/23 and that was that. I would like Michigan to hit a damn shot, yes.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Juwan Howard is unavailable for… reasons.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

The first Rutgers preview was almost superfluous since everyone reading this knows all about Geo Baker, et al, so go read that. Updates:

• As predicted, Geo Baker's hot shooting start has reverted to historical levels. He's 31% from three in Big Ten play. He's a hair better a setting up teammates and taking care of the ball than he's been previously but is still Exactly Geo Baker in all other ways. Baker absolutely obliterated Michigan in the first matchup, going 7/8 from two and 3/7 from three. In the year where any pull-up is a great shot against Michigan you just have to hope he's off.
• Also as predicted, Ron Harper has recovered much of his efficiency at the rim after a 20 point drop early in the season. That's now a nine point drop on the season, and given where he was coming from he's back to being Ron Harper. The exception: he's maintained his 40% three point shooting. Harper also nuked Michigan, going 6/7 from three in the first matchup.
• Cliff Omoruyi is a 40th percentile post defender, which is not good but is an improvement from earlier in the season. He remains a dunk-on-assists guy.
• The bench has gotten super thin. The backup 5 gets 10 MPG and two other guys get around 8-10. Rutgers does not have other options to turn to if their main guys are off.

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers:

Rutgers is hitting 38% from three in Big Ten play and is last in the league in preventing threes from going up. Unfortunately, the three point line is likely to be the deciding factor again. Someone hit a shot.

Other notable drill-down stats: Rutgers is the most proficient team at acquiring steals in the league but suffers more dorf moments than anyone else; they also rely way more heavily on assists than you'd expect given the Cable Subscribers' historic tendency for iso heroball.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

I am begging you from the depths of my very soul for the love of God hit a shot. Michigan's last three games: 4/17 from three, 4/20, 4/25. They also have 5/21, 2/15, 3/19, 1/10, and 3/15 games. Michigan is not terrible at shooting threes—they're about bang average nationally at 33.3%—they just concentrate all their makes in a select subset of games.

There's might be something to the idea that Michigan has limited shooters who are short (Brooks) or barely draw iron if they have to move in any way (Houstan) but on the season Michigan is 90th percentile on jumpers that Synergy considers guarded and 26th when unguarded, so… I mean… please hit any of the billion great shots Dickinson and Howard scheme up for you.

I keep saying this, yes, but what else is there to say when Dickinson gets doubled? The thing you have to do then is get a shot on the perimeter, and Michigan does, and then rollerblading-raptor.gif.

Ron and Geo sort of contested pull-up jumpers. Not a whole lot changes about these keys sections because each other Big Ten team has a guy who's a lot bigger than Eli Brooks; Brooks is going to prevent that guy from getting to the basket and then we'll see what happens. Last time out it was "nothing good."

Contributions from anyone else. Persons not named Dickinson, Brooks, or Jones scored a total of 15 points against Wisconsin. Against Ohio State that number was 18. In the narrow escape against Penn State, 16. When Michigan actually gets a game out of Diabate or Houstan they beat Purdue or Iowa. When they don't it's a rough ride.

Convince Rutgers you are a small assemblage of basketballing nuns who have gone 0-30 in their local church league. In this way you will cause Rutgers to lose.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 6.