THE ESSENTIALS

ayyyyyyy i'm rappaporting over heah

THE US

Michigan slid by Iowa in overtime yesterday and now looks to punch their five-seed card (probably? maybe?) against Nebraska, which sits inconveniently just outside the top 50 bin that would offer a Q1 win at a neutral court. But still.

They get a rested Cornhuskers outfit that hamblasted them in their only meeting of the year, so this should be a tight one. If Michigan can't improve it's three point shooting from the opener—and the first game—it won't be.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Note: all MPG numbers from Nebraska's last five games as that is more representative.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Palmer is the alpha

Nebraska was the victim of cruel fortune and the Big Ten's dumbass scheduling this year. One more bucket against Kansas and they'd be on the right side of the bubble; a couple more shots at the Big Ten's tourney-bound teams and they might have a resume that could plausibly claim an at-large. Neither happened, and early losses to St John's and UCF finish torpedoing their case. Nebraska's only win over an at-large team is—yep—that hamblasting of Michigan in mid-January.

For Michigan, this game is about avenging that loss. For Nebraska, it's step one on their path to an auto-bid or the NIT. I don't think anyone is inclined to scoff but let me reiterate that position: Nebraska has steadily ascended from their Kenpom preseason rank of #100 and is now #50; their play since Big Ten play resumed is probably a few ticks better than that. This is a good team, and one that matches up pretty well with Michigan.

This is in large part because of Isaiah Roby. This space did not even list Roby as a starter before the matchup in Lincoln because he had just recently come into clear starters' minutes. Tim Miles deployed him extensively against Mo Wagner, to devastating effect. Roby had 14 points on 7 shot equivalents (and three TOs, to be fair). Wagner had two on five shot equivalents.

That was a springboard to greater things. Roby kind of sort of blew up over the course of the Big Ten season. He's low usage but he was the #5 guy in the league in ORTG thanks to his 63/52 split from the floor and #1 free throw rate. He hits those free throws at a 71% clip; he is a very good OREB guy and a solid DREB/block guy. And his ability to check a point guard is real, as you no doubt remember. Nebraska switched willy-nilly in the previous matchup, which nerfed both Wagner and Simpson, who had just three points and a 2:2 A:TO ratio.

Roby isn't the box score star; he is Nebraska's best player by a fair distance.

The box score star is James Palmer, who came off a transfer sit-out year to be Nebraska's go-to guy. He's doing fairly well with high usage; he gets all of Nebraska's trash shots and still posts 52/32 shooting with a ton of FTs he hits at 73%. His overall ORTG is meh at 110; on a better team he'd be a few notches higher.

Michigan should play off him insofar as that is possible. In Big Ten play he's hitting under 30% from three but has the league's #2 free throw rate and is efficient anywhere inside the arc. One thing that jumps out about him on Hoop Math is that he is transition-dependent. His eFG drops from 62% in transition to 47% in the half-court.

Isaac Copeland is the other efficient-ish, decent-usage-ish Cornhusker. He's a good-at-bad-shots guy who is most comfortable taking mid-range jumpers and the occasional open three. He's 44% on non-rim 2PA on the season; about two thirds of his twos are assisted. He's a pick and roll or pick and pop guy.

The rest of the guys are fairly pedestrian. PG Glynn Watson's shooting has collapsed since the previous outing. He's now at 39/28. His A:TO ratio remains pretty good but sheeeeeeit if that guy wants to take anything other than an uncontested layup that's fine. He also has a steep drop in eFG in the halfcourt, from 50% to 37%.

Meanwhile, Anton Gill is Just A Shooter hitting 39%. Evan Taylor is a 15% usage guy who hits 47% from three... and has only attempted 32 on the year. He's attempted 120 twos, which he hits at a 43% rate. That ain't right. Those two guys split about 50 minutes a game as the fifth starter/sixth man.

Behind those guys there's little. C Jordy Tshimanga is better than his box score numbers indicate because he will affect a number of shots without blocking them; he's still miserable when the ball gets to his hands. Freshman SG Thomas Allen is the only other Nebraska player getting any minutes down the stretch; he's hit 44/35 on the season with a TO rate that is way too high for a guy who splits his usage about 50/50 between the arc and inside.  

THE TEMPO-FREE

Nebraska's offense got off the mat a bit after the Michigan game but settled only at #8 in conference play, largely because they're not very good at shooting—11th both inside and outside the arc. They get to the line a ton, which is usually not the best way to attack Michigan but this year's defense is more foul prone and if yesterday's game is an indication of how the tournament is going to be officiated... well.

Unfortunately, Nebraska's main weakness on defense is not one that Michigan is poised to exploit. Nebraska is in the 330s at defensive rebounding and dead last in conference play, allowing over a third of opponent misses to reboot the shot clock. They're still the #2 D in league play thanks to outstanding 3PA avoidance and a lot of misses from deep. Nebraska is fourth nationally at preventing threes and 15th in 3PA FG D, which might be a mirage for a team that isn't Syracuse. Or it might be a Roby effect. M was 4 of 18 from three in the first matchup.

THE KEYS

Don't be super tired? The previous Nebraska game was smack in the middle of Michigan's stupid crowded Delany section of the schedule and was by far their worst performance of the season. Michigan just played yesterday, but thanks to the referees' kind consideration of Michigan's future matchups MAAR and Mo got just ~20 minutes. Simpson and Matthews endured heavy loads, though.

Moby, "I Like To Score." The Mo-Roby matchup could not have gone worse last time out. Roby is the kind of agile spider-big capable of coping with Mo on the perimeter and switching onto short fast guys. "Post up a point guard" remains an entirely hypothetical way of dealing with Nebraska's switching, so Mo's going to have to level up on the Big Ten's breakout player.

Don't let them drive to the rim. Michigan's D was uncharacteristically porous in the previous matchup, largely because guys were able to get to the rim and convert. Michigan's usual level of contest was not there, allowing Nebraska to log an eFG% of 59, well above their season average.

Maybe more than one guy hits a three? RECOMMEND.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 4.