THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#26 Michigan (7-6, 1-2 Big Ten) vs #12 Illinois (12-3, 5-0 Big Ten)
WHERE	Phil Klein Insurance Group Arena Champaign, IL
WHEN	9 PM Eastern
THE LINE	Kenpom: ILL -7 Torvik: ILL -8
TELEVISION	FS1

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is back on the court tonight after missing two games with COVID issues. Some players may not be fully recovered, Michigan hasn't been able to practice 5-on-5 since the shutdown, and they get a red-hot Illinois team. This is probably going to be ugly. I'm slightly surprised that the game is on the board in Vegas, and more surprised still that the line is around 9 or 9.5. These days lines don't diverge much from Kenpom/Torvik ones but you'd think "this team might have a bunch of guys out with COVID and definitely hasn't practiced" would push it a little more.

Anyway, for the first time in a long time Michigan basketball enters a game and I'm expecting them to get blasted.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Yeah we have no idea who is going to be out there so here's the usual rotation. Some confusion about exactly who's available, as a 24/7 article suggests they have the bare minimum but this MLive piece is more optimistic:

“A couple of players have returned to practice, which was good to see. Also had some guys come out of quarantine,” Howard said. “We’ll see when we get ready to get on the bus which guys will be available for tomorrow’s matchup versus Illinois.”

A program spokesperson painted a more positive picture, noting that the roster was completely healthy (“zero illness”) and that Michigan had “every intention of playing the game.”

They're based on the same press conference. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

FWIW, my interpretation is that Howard said that they at least have the minimum to play.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

That is a lot of shooting surrounding an ogre. No indication Curbelo is nearing availability.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

large, extant, did not transfer to Kentucky, probably got some sweet NIL [Campredon]

Andre Curbelo's been out since November so even the faint hint that this wouldn't be the Kofi Cockburn show never materialized. And lo, Jamaican Godzilla is wroth. Cockburn's pretty much the same guy he was last year, a paint monster who is almost impossible to contain. He gets in the paint and obliterates anyone smaller than him; he shoots 60% from the floor; he's the fourth-most fouled guy in the country; he is a crushing offensive rebounder. Surely anyone reading this preview is familiar, but if you're not:

The sheer number of times the announcers say things like "ye Gods that man is enormous" on this video is the whole deal.

Cockburn has added a little bit of playmaking to his game as a junior, picking up his assist rate from black hole territory (1.3!) to "occasionally passes." His usage has ticked up to 30, as well, but the most important development from an Illinois perspective is Cockburn's free throw shooting, which has bounced back up to freshman levels after a 55% 2020-21. He's knocking them down at a 66% clip this year, which is extremely important since it turns the plentiful fouls Cockburn suffers from decent outcomes to excellent ones.

With Curbelo out there's no real point guard. Trent Frazier is nominally in the role but is more of a conscience-free gunner than a maestro; his TO rate is higher than his assist rate. Frazier is in that Travis Trice category of small guards who don't get to the rim much and end up settling for long twos when they venture inside the line. He's much more dangerous as a shooter, and is excellent pulling up from behind the arc. Almost two thirds of his threes are unassisted. Long twos from him are wins; he's shooting 30% on them over the past year and change.

Frazier is also a defensive ace. He, along with four other people not named Franz Wagner, was named to the All-Defensive team last year. That's deserved, as opposing PG/SGs had series of rough outings against him. Most notably, Marcus Carr was 6/24 in two games against Illinois a year ago.

Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer was supposed to be a sixth man but the Curbelo injury has forced him into extensive playing time that has gone better than expected. There's been no dropoff even as Plummer moves from a bad high major conference to a very good one. This is in large part because shooting transfers. Plummer is a knockdown shooter, currently 84th percentile on catch and shoot opportunities and 99th(!) off the dribble. He's a career 40% three-point shooter and is 42/43 from the free throw line this year. He will venture inside the arc from time to time, and even that's going well.

Transfer recruiting? Focus on shooting. Shooting transfers. Anyway.

Senior wing Jacob Grandison transferred in from holy cross two years ago and has broken out in his second year of high major competition, adding a significant amount of usage while shooting 54/48/86. He's actually been better in tier A+B games on Kenpom than he has against the meatballs on the schedule. Like Plummer, he is an absolute knockdown shooter this year at 98th percentile in catch and shoot opportunities. Unlike Plummer, pull-ups are not really a part of his game.

Da'Monte Williams is also back for a COVID-shirt year. He's still a tiny-usage defensive specialist. This year his three point shooting has returned to sanity: my dude shot 23%, 32%, and 27% his first three years, shot up to 55%(!) last year, and has returned to 36% this year. None of these have any sample size behind them because tiny usage.

The Illinois bench is pretty thin, with only two guys who contribute much:

• Florida transfer Omar Payne backs up Cockburn. He's a dunk-on-assists guy who brings a lot of shotblocking and turnovers to the table.
• 6'10" beanpole Coleman Hawkins started much of the year but has moved to a bench role recently. Hawkins is effective when he can get to the rim against smaller players, which is just about everyone, but when pushed away from it his shooting is ugly. Hawkins is a defensive pest.
• Luke Goode, RJ Melendez, Brandin Podiemski, and Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk all get scattered minutes. Nobody has anything that you could call a statistical record except maybe Goode, who's just a shooter and has hit 8/20 in his brief career to date.

THE TEMPO FREE

Yikes:

Illinois is raining in 3s at a 39% clip and has the #50 A/FGM number despite playing almost the whole year without their point guard. That does pop up in their TO rate, though it's debatable whether Curbelo would actually improve that. Defensively they are following the Michigan plueprint from a year ago: they're great at defending twos (7th) nationally, great at preventing threes from going up, and prevent assists. The bad TO rate is a lot of drop coverage.

THE KEYS

One on one in the post. Illinois stuffed Michigan in a locker last year but it had little to do with the post matchup, at least defensively. Cockburn had 12 points on 10 shots and only grabbed two OREBs. Dickinson was up for it. Unfortunately, on the other end he had his worst game of the season, a 1/8 shooting performance and a total of 6 points. Hard to see Michigan winning this game without a decisive win in this matchup.

Chances of that? Not great but not impossible as Dickinson has expanded his game to pull Cockburn away from the rim and can shoot with his left hand near the bucket a bit.

Shoot anomalously. On WTKA this week Craig noted that teams have been shooting absurdly well in Michigan's losses, and Michigan is hitting 26%. Some of that is luck, and Michigan's probably better than they've showed this year.

I don't even know man. Michigan's going to be real rusty and I'm really just thinking "not in the face."

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by  7.