EVENT NOTE: Our friends at VENUE are having a Fiesta Bowl game watch party on Saturday. They let me name the drinks (I recommend the Cayman Nebraska). There's also a pre-game event starting at 3PM hosted by comedian Jeff Fritz, Michigan football trivia, and UM athlete/ B10 wrestling champs Mason Parris, Cameron Amine and Will Lewan. It's free, but best to reserve a spot.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan has one more game against a dreg to not screw up before the Big Ten season begins in earnest. As nonconference sleepers go CMU is much closer to Jackson State and Eastern Michigan than Ohio and Lipscomb. Their point guard/offensive engine has been out since Thanksgiving, and since then they have two wins against non-DI teams and losses to Kenpom #235 Robert Morris, #224 Tulsa, #118 Missouri State, and #144 YSU. They still haven't said why, but we're guessing he's unavailable tonight as well. In his absence, every other guard and wing has moved up, drawing in a freshman PF/C who's just there for putbacks and blocking shots.

Scattered injuries have sidelined six other regulars at times early this season, so the Chips have had a hard time figuring out their lineups. Their best move is to block shots, steal the ball, and get in transition. Even starting a tiny true freshman at PG, Michigan remains one of the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to either. This should be a slaughter, except letting bad teams hang around has been a theme all season.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

There isn't a star on this team but the best player is winger Brian Taylor, who transferred up from Illinois-Chicago last year and did a little bit of everything for his team through MAC play. His shot has been broken so far this year, and he's not quite athletic enough to keep up when switched on guards. But if there's somebody playing annoyingly beyond his norm, it's probably Taylor. His miserable season will turn around eventually; I am asking that we not hurry it.

Freshman G Reggie Bass may grow into a good guard—he's got some athleticism and an eye to make plays for his teammates. Right now though he's a turnover machine and lost on defense, as you might imagine from a MAC true freshman suddenly forced into a bigger role. He can pull up and can a three, and takes enough of them off the dribble that his accuracy looks worse than it probably should be.

The other guard who's been trying to take on more of a point role is G Jesse Zarzuela. His turnover rate however has been rocketing up with his assist rate after transferring from Coppin State, which also tried to have him run point with similar results. Zarz is the player most likely to launch a heat check but has been unusually cold (2/14) his last three games and under 39% this season when shooting inside the line, so running him off the arc is the play.

Center is a mostly equal rotation between stretch/no D Miroslav Stafl and thicc swatter Markus Harding, a Canadian up-transfer from D-II Eastern Florida State College with big hair, slow feet, and quick, not agile hands. Harding started their first two games then was out until December. Since he's returned he's been coming off the bench but gets a slim majority of minutes. He debuted an effective pull-up jumper against YSU earlier this week though that's never been part of his game before. Stafl transferred from Hartford last year and then mostly rode the bench. He's a career 22% shooter from three but takes a quarter of his shots from outside. When inside, Stafl tends to fight through contact, which generates a lot of free throws and a lot of turnovers. He's only 64% career at the stripe but has been money (16/18) this year. His turnover rate is also over 30, but that's not much worse than always.

Finally there's freshman sorta-big Ola Ajiboye. He scores half his points on putbacks and does nothing else but block shots and set picks. As you might guess, this style of play leads to lots of fouls. After playing sparingly their first six games Ajiboye has been starting and staying in as long as foul trouble doesn't force him out. The guess is they glue him to Jett.

The rest of the bench:

• G Max Majerle (pronounced Marley) is probably closer to 6-0 than his listed 6-4. He's another freshman they've been trying at point. He looks for steals and transition opportunities but is invisible in the half-court. His three-pointer looks like it should be better than 25% but takes a long time to go up.
• PF Carrington McCaskill is all arms and legs. He prefers to hang out at the rim and look for free dunks, with a decent block rate and strong rebounding numbers. You can let him shoot a three.
• C Nicolas Pavrette is a skinny 6-11 body with five fouls who scores a third of his points on putbacks.

THE TEMPO FREE

CMU lives and dies off of swatting at shots and trying to create transition opportunities off of them. They're 6th in the country at non-steal turnover rate this year, and 150th in block rate, which is pretty dang high for a MAC team. Barbee's Auburn squads were Mutombos too. They'll also look to draw contact—when opponents don't reciprocate, the Chips tend to get lost under the basket and give it away. On defense they've been playing lots of zone, and generate a lot of those turnovers by getting long arms on passes.

Their assist numbers look good on paper but after watching two of their games then seeing the box scores I'm going to guess they caught whatever brain worm afflicts the batshit everything's-an-assist scorer in East Lansing.

THE KEYS

Don't turn it over. If they go zone, shoot over it.

One more pass. Jett threes >>> T-Will threes.

Don't dig Dug. Passing through zones or drives to the rim that start low play into the things the Chips do well.

Don't make it interesting. Last time I ask.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 20.